Production and Consumption on the Century Timescale: Can Alternative Energy Technologies Replace Fossil Fuels Fast enough?

A Century of Change A Century of Change (1900 (=1) vs 2000)(1900 (=1) vs 2000)

• Industrial Output: 40

• Marine Fish Catch: 35

• CO2 Emissions: 17

• Total Energy Use: 16

• Coal Production: 7

• World Population: 4

No More Fish by

2100 at this rate

of Consumption

Waveforms of GrowthWaveforms of Growth

The Terrawatt Power ScaleThe Terrawatt Power Scale

Currently we are a 15 TW PlanetCurrently we are a 15 TW Planet 40 years ago we were at 5 TW40 years ago we were at 5 TW

The Earth Limited Scale Scaling from the last century leads to the

absurd: 235 TW of required Power Well, what kind of facilities/infrastructure

would need to be built to generate 235 TW of Power?

Option 1: Build 40,000 more of these worldwide:

Hey What about World Wide Wind?

We would need to build 50 million of these 5 MW machines

This requires 75 Billion Tons of Steel whoops, we ain’t got that much Steel left

Option 3: Pave the Deserts We only need 30 million square kilometers

spaced out continuously in each time zone. Note that the entire Sahara desert is 9

million square km.

Implications This Century can not scale in terms of

material consumption the way that the last century did BAU can’t be supported

We are starting to run out of raw materials needed for basic infrastructure

We are definitely running out of rare materials needed for some advanced technologies

Business As Usual ScenarioBusiness As Usual Scenario

Population stabilizes to 10-12 billion Population stabilizes to 10-12 billion by the year 2100 by the year 2100

Total world energy use from 2000 to Total world energy use from 2000 to 2100 is 4000 Terra Watt Years 2100 is 4000 Terra Watt Years

40 TWyr is compromise between 40 TWyr is compromise between current 15 TWyr and scaled current 15 TWyr and scaled (ridiculous) 235 TWyr(ridiculous) 235 TWyr

Ultimately Recoverable Ultimately Recoverable ResourceResource

Conventional Conventional Oil/GasOil/Gas

Unconventional OilUnconventional Oil CoalCoal Methane ClathratesMethane Clathrates Oil ShaleOil Shale Uranium OreUranium Ore Geothermal Steam Geothermal Steam

- conventional- conventional

1000 TWy (1/4 1000 TWy (1/4 need)need)

20002000 50005000 20,00020,000 30,00030,000 2,0002,000 4,0004,000

Other PossibilitiesOther Possibilities

Hot Dry RockHot Dry Rock Sunlight/OTECSunlight/OTEC Wind EnergyWind Energy Gulf StreamGulf Stream Global BiomassGlobal Biomass

1,000,0001,000,000 9,000,0009,000,000 200,000200,000 140,000140,000 10,00010,000

In Principle, Incident Energy is Sufficient but how to recover and distribute it in the most cost effective manner?

Dollars Per Megawatt per unit Dollars Per Megawatt per unit Land use per unit Material UseLand use per unit Material Use

20 KW power buoy 20 KW power buoy 5 MW Wind Turbine5 MW Wind Turbine LNG closed cycleLNG closed cycle Wind FarmWind Farm PV FarmPV Farm Stirling FarmStirling Farm Pelamis FarmPelamis Farm

850 Tons per MW850 Tons per MW 100 Tons per MW100 Tons per MW 1500 MW sq km 1500 MW sq km 600 MW sq km600 MW sq km 50 MW sq km50 MW sq km 40 MW sq km40 MW sq km 30 MW sq km30 MW sq km

The Current US Situation

• Electricity power is at .97 TW (2007)• Approximately 450,000 MW (0.45 TW) is

provided by Coal• Annual Coal emissions for electricity

generation are almost exactly equal to total annual emissions from gasoline powered vehicles

• National Goal replace 450,000 MW of coal fired electricity

But replace with what

• Beware the nuclear comeback would require building 450 new nuclear power plants (currently 109 exist)

• LNG this is our current path• About 95% of new generating capacity added

over the last 10 years is NG fired electricity• LNG path is fraught with political peril; Russia

and Iran have more than 50% remaining supply

LNG Infrastructure

Rapid Escalation of Import Facilities

Demand and Supply

Large Scale RenewablesLarge Scale Renewables

CSP CSP 40 MW per square km 40 MW per square km 100 x 100 x 100 km section of central Nevada 100 km section of central Nevada 400,000 MW (about equal to current Coal) 400,000 MW (about equal to current Coal) but only for about 6-8 hrs per day but only for about 6-8 hrs per day

Great Plains Wind Project Great Plains Wind Project 1 10 MW 1 10 MW Turbine per 10 square km Turbine per 10 square km 450,000 MW 450,000 MW (but at about 50% wind reliability)(but at about 50% wind reliability)

More PossibilitiesMore Possibilities

Off shore wind/wave energy devices Off shore wind/wave energy devices make make hydrogen (electricity carrier) and fresh waterhydrogen (electricity carrier) and fresh water

Aleutian Island corridor Aleutian Island corridor about 200,000 MW about 200,000 MW available thereavailable there

1000 km Gulf Current Turbine corridor 1000 km Gulf Current Turbine corridor 1 TW 1 TW availableavailable

Regionally: Multi-element Tidal fence topped Regionally: Multi-element Tidal fence topped with Wind Turbines across the straits of Juan de with Wind Turbines across the straits of Juan de Fuca Fuca 50,000 MW. 50,000 MW.

SummarySummary

• Scale similar to 1930’s BLM engineering of the West or 1960’s endeavor to reach the moon

• The scale of this challenge is large (~5 TWyr new electricity generation in the US ) and requires 20-30 year implementation timescale

• Think seriously about using Hydrogen as a proxy for transmission of electricity (Aleutians; OTEC)

• No one technological solution exists need Network of regionally based alternative energy facilities

Solutions ExistSolutions Exist

• It takes commitment and recognition of the total scale of the problem

• As long as we remain in denial and treat the Earth as infinite, then we can not move towards sustainability

• Energy conservation is one of the best forms of sustainable energy.