Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand
-
Upload
ben-anderson -
Category
Business
-
view
565 -
download
0
description
Transcript of Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand
![Page 1: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity
demand
IMA 2013Canberra, December 12th 2013
Dr Ben AndersonSustainable Energy Research Centre
University of Southampton
@dataknut
![Page 2: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
Contents
What & Why
How?
Results– Overall consumption– Consumption inequalities
Conclusions & future Directions
![Page 3: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
Contents
What & Why
How?
Results– Overall consumption– Consumption inequalities
Conclusions & future Directions
?
![Page 4: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
Digression: Geography
Southampton (UK)
![Page 5: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
Digression: What’s a small area?
In this case…– English Lower Layer
Super Output Areas– Census 2001 LSOAs– c. 630 households
each– 148 in Southampton
City
![Page 6: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
What & Why
Basically we want something for nothing– Small area estimates of energy demand– Without a bespoke energy census
Why?– Infrastructure planning– Energy efficiency intervention analysis– Politics!
![Page 7: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
The problem:
Small area summaries exist
But they are aggregates– Or averages
And we want a micro-level model– To micro-simulate change…
![Page 8: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
What can we do?
A bespoke energy census– ££££££££££££££££££££
![Page 9: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
What can we do?
A bespoke energy census– ££££££££££££££££££££
A large sample energy survey covering all LSOAs– ££££££££££
![Page 10: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
What can we do?
A bespoke energy census– ££££££££££££££££££££
A large sample energy survey covering all LSOAs– ££££££££££
Small Area Estimation– Take existing area level data– Take (ideally) an existing large n survey– Combine £
![Page 11: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
Small Area Estimation
Econometric approaches– Well known– Multi-level Models– Usually requires census microdata for anything
other than means
Re-weighting (and other) approaches– Increasingly well known– 'Spatial microsimulation'– Does not require census microdata
Income, income deprivation,income inequality
smoking prevalence, obesity,
consumption expenditure,CO2, water…
Innovation Network:“Evaluating and improving small
area estimation methods”
http://eprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3210/
![Page 12: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
Contents
What & Why
How?
Results– Overall consumption– Consumption inequalities
Conclusions & Future Directions
Estimation
![Page 13: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
Data
Data– Living Costs and Food Survey 2008-2010
· Consumption proxies (reported energy expenditure)
– Census 2001 (2011)
Projection– Projected ‘surveys’– Projected ‘census’
So far…
![Page 14: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
Conceptually…
LSOA 2.1(Region2)
Survey data cases
LSOA 1.1(Region1)
Iterative proportional fittingBallas et al (2005)
If Region = 2
Weights
LSOA census ‘constraint’ tables
If Region = 1
![Page 15: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
16
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
Key First Job:
Choose your constraints
Census data
Survey data
You may have little choice
![Page 16: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
19
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
Key First Job:
The constraints– Selected by stepwise regression
Expenditure Share of expenditure
Most important Number of persons Employment Status
Accommodation type
Number of earners
Age of HRP Age of HRP
Employment Status Composition
Number of rooms
Number of children
Least important Ethnicity (non-white)
R sq 0.136 0.01
![Page 17: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
20
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
IPF…
Well known! Deming and Stephan 1940
– Fienberg 1970; Wong 1992 A way of iteratively adjusting statistical tables
– To give known margins (row/column totals) In this case
– Create weights for each case so LSOA totals ‘fit’ constraints
– Weighting ‘down’
![Page 18: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
21
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
Internal Validation methods
Use of constraints to re-create the Census tables
Difference = Absolute Error
– Total Absolute Error (TAE) = sum of all errors
– Standardised AE = TAE/(n persons x n constraint categories)
Smith et al:
– SAE of less than 20% and ideally less than 10%
– in 90% of the areas is desirable.
Consumption Mean SAE p90
Ethnicity 2.18% 3.05%
Number of children 0.11% 0.22%
Number of rooms 0.05% 0.10%
Employment status (HRP) 0.88% 1.22%
Age (HRP) 0.34% 0.75%
Tenure 0.07% 0.14%
Accomodation type 0.21% 0.51%
Number of persons 0.00% 0.00%
![Page 19: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
22
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
Preliminary results: Electricity Mean weekly £
Modelled
Census 2001
LC&F Survey 2008-2010
![Page 20: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
23
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
Validation: Electricity Mean weekly £
Observed @LSOA
DECC 2010
Spearman: 0.317
![Page 21: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
24
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
Preliminary results: Electricity Total weekly £
Modelled
Census 2001
LC&F Survey 2008-2010
![Page 22: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
25
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
Validation: Electricity Total weekly £
Observed @LSOA
DECC 2010
Spearman: 0.509
![Page 23: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
26
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
What is causing the error? Heating!
– 2011 data
![Page 24: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
27
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
What is causing the error? Heating!
– 2011 data
Housing growth
Combined
![Page 25: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
28
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
Consumption inequality Area level gini
R = -0.413– (p < 0.001)
DRAFT
![Page 26: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
29
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
Consumption inequality Area level gini
R = 0.463– (p < 0.001)
DRAFT
![Page 27: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
30
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
My big worry
Data quality
![Page 28: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
31
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
Contents
What & Why
How?
Results– Overall consumption– Consumption inequalities
Conclusions & Future Directions
![Page 29: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
32
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
Conclusions
Outliers and errors are informative
Reported consumption data– Could be dangerous
Census 2011 central heating– Critical new constraint
![Page 30: Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051513/546449b7af795983338b48a1/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
33
Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption
@dataknut
Future directions
Update for 2011 data
Census projection 1981 -> 2021
Use measured energy consumption
Contact:– [email protected]