Producing a Perfect PV Fleet Forecast At What Cost?

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Transcript of Producing a Perfect PV Fleet Forecast At What Cost?

  • PRODUCING A PERFECT PV FLEET FORECAST

    AT WHAT COST?

    Richard Perez, ASRC

    6th PV Performance Modeling WorkshopFreiburg, Germany

  • SolarAnywhere V4 --- NEW YORK 24 HA

    Deterministic metrics: MBE, MAE, RMSEFo

    reca

    st

    Measure

    Probabilistic metrics

    P50P90

    R. Perez & et al.

  • Deterministic metrics: MBE, MAE, RMSE

    Probabilistic metrics

    Perfect forecast metric

    SolarAnywhere V4 --- NEW YORK 24 HA

    Fore

    cast

    Measure

    R. Perez & et al.

  • SolarAnywhere V4 --- NEW YORK 24 HA

    Fore

    cast

    Measure

    PV Fleets

    Load forecasts

    R. Perez & et al.

  • R. Perez & et al.

  • One year of data

    SolarAnywhere V4Cloud motion vectorGFSNDFDECMWFHRRR

    Validation

    Single point : SURFARD

    Extended area: Satellite

    RMSE

    R. Perez & et al.

  • Single point2X2 (~Size of Massachusetts) 4X4 (~ size of New York) 7x7 (~ size of California)

    Bondville

    RESULTS

    Hour-ahead

    R. Perez & et al.

  • Bondville

    Desert Rock

    RESULTS

    Day-ahead

    Single point2X2 (~ size of Massachusetts)4X4 (~ size of New York) 7x7 (~ size of California)

    R. Perez & et al.

  • Desert Rock

    RESULTS

    Single point2X2 (~Size of Massachusetts) 4X4 (~ size of New York) 7x7 (~ size of California)

    Hour-ahead

    R. Perez & et al.

  • Desert Rock

    RESULTS

    Day-ahead

    Single point2X2 (~ size of Massachusetts)4X4 (~ size of New York) 7x7 (~ size of California)

    R. Perez & et al.

  • MAPE normalized to installed capacity

    Region dimension (km)

    R. Perez & et al.

  • BONDVILLE HOUR-AHEAD 4x4 REGION (~ New York State)

    SOLARANYWHERE UNDERLYING MODELS

    BONDVILLE DAY-AHEAD 4x4 REGION (~ New York State)

    R. Perez & et al.

  • SOLARANYWHERE UNDERLYING MODELS

    %RMSE

    %MAE SolarAnywhere v4

    %MAE ECMWF

    R. Perez & et al.

  • Cost of a perfect forecast?Hour ahead

    PV Curtailment

    Battery cost ($/PV-kW)

    R. Perez & et al.

  • Cost of a perfect forecast?24 hrs. ahead

    PV Curtailment

    Battery cost ($/PV-kW)

    R. Perez & et al.

  • Cost of a perfect forecast?Model accuracy matters

    Thank You

    R. Perez & et al.

  • HIGH PV PENETRATION PARADIGM

    STORAGE

    LOAD SHAPINGCURTAILMENT

    GEOGRAPHIC DISPERSION

    Cost of a perfect forecast?

    R. Perez & et al.

    Perfect forecast operations

  • Hanford

    Desert Rock

    Goodwin Creek

    Penn State

    Bondville

    Sioux Falls

    Boulder

    Fort Peck

    NSRDB

    Perez et al.V1 V2 V3 V4

  • HISTORICAL DATA REAL TIME FORECAST

    1998 6 days ahead

    V1 V2 V3 V4

    Solar Energy Forecast Validation for Extended Areas

    Economic Impact of Forecast Accuracy

  • HISTORICAL DATA REAL TIME FORECAST

    Cloud motion NDFD

    GLOBAL SCALE MODELS NCEP GFS ECMWFCONTINENTAL SCALE MODELS NAMHIGH RESOLUTION ASSIMILATION MODELS RAP HRRR

    Operational NWP models

    1998 6 days ahead

  • HISTORICAL DATA REAL TIME FORECAST

    1998 6 days ahead