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Transcript of PROCESSUS 2nd International Colloquium on the Behavioural Foundations of Integrated Land-use and...
PROCESSUS 2nd International Colloquium on the Behavioural Foundations of Integrated Land-use and Transportation Models: Frameworks, Models and Applications
Dimitris PotoglouPavlos S. Kanaroglou
Potential Demand for Household Alternative Fuelled Vehicles:An Internet Survey Instrument
Centre for Spatial AnalysisSchool of Geography and Geology
McMaster University
Outline
• Development Trends in the Automotive Industry
• Research Questions / Objectives• Modelling Approach• Data Collection: Internet Survey• Anticipated Outcomes and Next
Steps
Development Trends
HighLow
Efficiency
Very LowEmissions
LowEmissions
ICE
DirectInjection
Diesel
AdvancedICE
ElectronicCamshaftsDirect
Injection
HybridElectricVehicles
FuelCells
DieselHybrid
Research Questions / Objectives
• What are the major vehicle attributes and household characteristics influencing vehicle transactions and vehicle-type choice?
• What are the major factors and trade-offs of vehicle attributes for switching from conventional to alternative fuelled vehicle technologies?
• How can we simulate future vehicle demand allowing for scenario building and policy implications regarding alternative fuelled vehicle technologies?
Modelling Framework
AddOne
ReplaceOne
DisposeOne
Do-Nothing
HouseholdVehicle
Ownership(time t)
Gasoline Hybrid Alter.Fuelled
...Class 1 Class n
...Dispose 1 Dispose n...Dispose 1 Dispose n
...Class 1 Class n ...Class 1 Class n
Gasoline Hybrid Alter.Fuelled
...Class 1 Class n ...Class 1 Class n ...Class 1 Class n
HouseholdVehicle
Ownership(time t+1)
Data Requirements
• Revealed (actual) Preferences:– Vehicle transactions and – Vehicle -Type Choices
• Stated (hypothetical) Choices:– Hypothetical Vehicle Transactions– Hypothetical Vehicle - Technology/Type
Choices
The CIBER-CARS SurveyChoice Internet Based Experiment for Research on CARs
Stage 1: Revealed PreferencesItem Description
Household location, type of building, number of members and vehicles, total household income, date household formed, date moved in the Hamilton area.
Person (s) gender, age, work and student status, licence, education level.
Vehicle (s) make, model, year of production, principal user of the vehicle, ownership, fuel type.
Future Vehicle Purchase Plans
vehicle class, money spent if purchased, annual usage rate (kilometres/year).
Stage 2: Stated Choices Experiment
Attribute Levels
Purchase Price
(1) -20%, (2) -10%, (3) Base, (4) +10% than the Base
Annual Fuel Cost (1) - 80%, (2) - 60%, (3) - 40% lower, (4) -20% than Base
Annual Maintenance Cost (1) - 50%, (2) -25 %, (3) Base, (4) +25% than Base
Fuel Availability (For AFVs only)
(1) 75%, (2) 50%, (3) 25% (4) 10% of existing stations
Acceleration (1) 6sec, (2) 9 sec, (3) 12, (4) 15 sec
Incentives (For Hybrid Electric and AFVs only)
(1) None, (2) Carpool Lanes, (3) No Parking or Metered Fees, (4) No Purchase Taxes
Pollution Levels (For Hybrid Electric and AFVs only)
(1) 10%, (2) 25%, (3) 50%, (4) 75% of present day average car
Stage 2: Experimental Design [2]
• Experimental Design:– 413 Orthogonal Main Effects Matrix in 64
Scenarios.– 213 Endpoint and Main Effects and Interactions
- within the alternative options - Effects in 64 Scenarios.
– Total Design Matrix includes 128 Scenarios.
• Out of 128 Scenarios, respondents receive 8 scenarios– 4 are taken from the first 64 scenarios, and – 4 are taken from the second 64 scenarios.
A Stated Choices Exercise
Survey Implementation• Information about the survey was posted on the
local intranets of:– The City of Hamilton, and – The Hamilton Health Sciences (short time)
• An invitation e-mail was distributed to:– McMaster University Employees, Faculty and Staff
• Recipients of the e-mail were asked to forward the message to others living in the study area.
Sample Description
• Data collection:– March 21 – April 30, 2005
• 902 respondents participated from all municipalities of Hamilton CMA.– 530 stated that they would buy a vehicle in the
next 5 years (stage 2) -> 496 eligible responses.
– 496 * 8 exercises = 3968 observations
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
21-03 26-03 31-03 05-04 10-04 15-04 20-04 25-04 30-04
Completed E-mail Reminder
Response Activity
Spatial Distribution of the Sample
Descriptive Analysis of Vehicle Choices
Anticipated Outcomes and Next Steps
• Improve our understanding on how urban households make vehicle-transactions and type-choice decisions.
• Estimation of discrete choice models will contribute to the development of a decision making modelling system accounting for both conventional and alternative vehicle technologies.
• Simulation results will characterize the role of alternative fuelled vehicles in improving urban air quality.