Process mining explained by an exampleThe logistics process at SmartCoat Inc.

SmartCoat

Episode 8 (out of 8): prediction and real-time

process mining explained by an example© 2016 horsum

Ep. 8: prediction and real-time2

What’s on this week?

Prediction Real-time

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What preceded …

process mining explained by an example© 2016 horsum

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What preceded…

Marie, CEO of SmartCoat Inc., asked us to analyze and make recommendations for the logistics process via process mining and dataanalytics techniques ... Just by looking at the data in SmartCoat’s ERP system!

In the previous episode, Cédric calculated and analyzed the costs related to SmartCoat’s logistics process. He proposed Marie to rearrange her logistics process, to renegotiate sales prices and to request improved quality checks performed by retailers.

Have you missed the seventh episode? Click on Marie … and you will be redirected to the seventh episode!

Ep. 8: prediction and real-time5

Prediction and real-time

process mining explained by an example© 2016 horsum

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Cédric, your horsum guide

Hi, nice to see you again! We arrived at the last episode!

In previous episodes, I told you how I discovered and analyzed the logistics process at SmartCoat Inc. I presented you some process

deviations and bottlenecks, performed some benchmarking analysis, calculated the process costs and identified the interactions between

people and locations.

In this episode, I will talk about predictive analysis and real-time process mining. Do you come along for the last time?

CédricConsultant

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Prediction

Process mining provides a picture of your current business processes. But you can also use it to predict future errors (predictive analysis). In the previous episodes, we saw that unnecessary process activities, bottlenecks and inefficiencies are identified fairly easily. We also found out why something goes wrong.

By using data mining techniques, we are also able to predict that something will go wrong. For instance, we can predict that a smartphone will be scrapped. If the probability of scrapping is high for a certain smartphone, we can maybe perform some other process activities to avoid scrapping.

In short: it’s a powerful tool to tackle the cause of process problems.

Prediction

So how could SmartCoat benefit from predictive analyses?

Well, I saw in Episode 3 that 5 smartphones are not checked upon arrival. I wonder if smartphones that are not checked upon arrival, have a higher chance to be scrapped? Let’s investigate.

In Episode 3, I discovered that 5 smartphones are approved for scrapping by Marie. I wonder how much non-checked smartphones are part of these scrapped smartphones.

Prediction

On the right, I filtered the process so I only see the paths of the scrapped smartphones.

I see that 2 out of the 5 scrapped smartphones did not undergo inbound controls. This means that 2 out of the 5 smartphones without inbound checks ended up as scrap (40%).

The other three scrapped smartphones are part of 30 smartphones who were subjected to inbound controls. Resultantly, this means that 10 % of the checked smartphones was scrapped.

As a result, I note that for the investigated smartphones, the probability on scrapping is higher if a smartphone is not subjected to inbound checks.

In a way, this is a first indication and step towards predictive analysis. I discovered in this (smaller) sample that the chance on scrapping increases if no inbound controls are performed.

Prediction

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Real-time

Real-time

In the previous episodes, we performed our process mining analysis based on an event log with 35 cases. We performed an ex-post analysis.

We can also monitor the logistics process at SmartCoat in real time by linking the process to the IT systems. As such, we can continuously follow up on certain core processes, and make quick adjustments when necessary. This enables us to intervenepromptly, and we can avoid in a timely manner that things go wrong, while at the same time preventing costs resulting from inefficiencies and dissatisfied customers.

Event log analysis

Number of cases 35

Number of activities 16

Number of events 393

Start 02.03.2016 08:10:00

End 31.03.2016 15:33:57

Real-time

So how would SmartCoat benefit from monitoring the logistics process in real time?

Marie told us that it is not allowed to have more than 4 smartphones at the same time in the testing room. In Episode 3, I discovered that this rule is often violated by having more smartphones in the testing room.

If SmartCoaters could follow up the process in real time, they could anticipate such situations and better manage the flow of smartphones. As such, they could improve the overall quality of coated smartphones and increase the customer satisfaction by lowering the chance on bottlenecks (and thus shorter throughput times).

Event log analysis

Number of cases 35

Number of activities 16

Number of events 393

Start 02.03.2016 08:10:00

End 31.03.2016 15:33:57

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Cédric’s closing speech

process mining explained by an example© 2016 horsum

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Cédric, your horsum guide

Fellow Process Miners,

It has been a great pleasure to have your weekly attention. My goal for this series was to provide you with tangible, easy-to-understand and pragmatic

examples on the opportunities of process mining. I hope this series can serve you as an addition to the existing “academic”

literature.

I chose to write this series from a consultant’s perspective to give you insights in how process mining can help you in real-case business situations.

Therefore, please feel free to let me know how process mining helped you in similar cases.

Farewell, and keep on process mining!Cédric

Consultant

process mining explained by an example© 2016 horsum

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8 episodes

Episode 1: introduction

Episode 2: process discovery

Episode 3: process deviations

Episode 4: benchmarking

Episode 5: bottlenecks

Episode 6: interactions

Episode 7: process costs

Episode 8: prediction and real-time

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Contact us!Questions?

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Contact us!

Dennis Houthoofd Frederik Vervoort

T: +32 488 90 41 40E: dennis.houthoofd@horsum.be

T: +32 473 91 05 80E: frederik.vervoort@horsum.be

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