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    DOI 10.1378/chest.09-2920; Prepublished online March 18, 2010;Chest

    GroupWerner Zimmerli, Beat Mueller, Philipp Schuetz and for the ProHOSP StudyFabian Mller, Mirjam Christ-Crain, Thomas Bregenzer, Martin Krause,

    A prospective cohort trial.Patients with community-acquired Pneumonia:Procalcitonin levels Predict Bacteremia in

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    Word count: abstract: 246 Main text: 2860

    Procalcitonin levels Predict Bacteremia in Patients with community-acquired

    Pneumonia: A prospective cohort trial.

    1Fabian Mller, MD, 1Mirjam Christ-Crain, MD, 2Thomas Bregenzer, MD, 3Martin

    Krause, MD, 4 Werner Zimmerli, MD, 2*Beat Mueller, MD and 1Philipp Schuetz, MD

    for the ProHOSP Study Group *

    1Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Endocrinology, Diabetes and Clinical

    Nutrition, University Hospital Basel, 2 Department of Internal Medicine, Kantonsspital

    Aarau, 3 Department of Internal Medicine, Kantonsspital Mnsterlingen 4 Department

    of Internal Medicine, Kantonsspital Liestal, Switzerland

    *Corresponding author:Beat Mueller, MDDepartment of Internal Medicine,Kantonsspital, Tellstrasse, CH-5001 Aarau, [email protected] +41 62 838 68 40Fax +41 62 838 69 45

    Funding sources:This trial is supported in part by a grant from the Swiss National Science Foundation

    (SNF 3200BO-116177/1), contributions from santsuisse and the Gottfried and JuliaBangerter-Rhyner-Foundation, the University Hospital Basel, the Medical UniversityClinic Liestal, the Medical Clinic Buergerspital Solothurn, the Cantonal HospitalsMuensterlingen, Aarau and Lucerne, respectively, the Swiss Society for InternalMedicine (SGIM), and from the Department of Endocrinology, Diabetology andClinical Nutrition, University Hospital Basel. BRAHMS, the manufacturer of the PCTassay, provided all assay related material.

    ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00350987

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    Competing InterestNo commercial sponsor had any involvement in design and conduct of this study,namely collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; andpreparation, decision to submit, review, or approval of the manuscript.PS, MCC and BM received support from BRAHMS to attend meetings and fulfilled

    speaking engagements. BM has served as a consultant and received research

    support.

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    Background: Guidelines recommend blood culture sampling from hospitalized

    patients with suspected community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). However, the yield

    of true positive results is low. We investigated the benefit of procalcitonin (PCT) on

    admission to predict blood culture positivity in CAP.

    Methods: This is a prospective cohort study with a derivation and validation set

    including a total of 925 CAP patients with blood culture sampling upon hospital

    admission.

    Results: A total of 73 patients (7.9%) had true bacteremia (43/463 in the derivation

    cohort, 30/462 in the validation cohort). The area under the receiver-operating-

    characteristics curve of PCT in the derivation and validation cohort were similar

    (0.83 (95%CI 0.78-0.89), 0.79 (95%CI 0.72-0.88). Overall, PCT was a significantly

    better predictor for blood culture positivity as compared to white blood cell count, C-

    reactive protein and other clinical parameters. In multivariate regression analysis,

    only antibiotic pretreatment (adjusted OR 0.25, p

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    Introduction

    Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a common and potentially life-threatening

    disease which puts an enormous strain on health-care resources 1. In the diagnostic

    work up of CAP patients, identification of the causative organism to target a more

    favourable antibiotic therapy and to study local resistance patterns is of great value

    1,2 . Current guidelines recommend drawing two sets of pre-treatment blood cultures

    routinely in all hospitalized patients with CAP{Mandell, 2007 #6340} 3. Nevertheless

    the benefit and cost-effectiveness of routine drawing of blood cultures is

    controversial, mainly because of the low yield of positive blood cultures, which is in

    the range of 3-10% in non-selected hospital admitted patients with CAP 4-10 . In order

    to limit blood culture sampling to high-risk patients for growth of bacteria, previous

    studies have evaluated clinical and laboratory predictors for blood culture positivity

    6,11-13 . However, single parameters lack sensitivity and/or specificity which prevents

    its use in daily routine 6,11 . Some authors have developed clinical decision rules with

    increased prognostic accuracy 6,12,13 . However, complexity of decision rules often

    restricts a widespread adoption. Hence, there is an unmet need to identify simple

    and accurate predictors for blood culture positivity in patients with CAP.

    Procalcitonin (PCT) has emerged as a biomarker for bacterial infections because it

    correlates with the extent and severity of microbial invasion in different infections 14-

    22 . Previous trials have demonstrated that patients with bacteremic CAP have

    markedly increased initial PCT concentrations 9,14,17,22 , which makes PCT a

    promising candidate biomarker for prediction of blood culture positivity. Herein, we

    evaluated the prognostic accuracy of PCT as compared to other commonly used

    clinical and laboratory parameters in a large and well defined derivation and

    validation cohort of CAP patients .

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    Material and Methods

    Setting and population studied

    The present study is a predefined sub-study of the previously published ProHOSP

    trial and evaluated data from 925 patients confirmed with radiological CAP who were

    admitted to the Emergency Department (ED) of the University Hospital Basel,

    Switzerland, between 12/06 and 03/08. A detailed description of the ProHOSP study

    has been published elsewhere 14,23 . In brief, consecutive patients with lower

    respiratory tract infection (LRTI) were included in six secondary and tertiary care

    hospitals in northern and central Switzerland. The aim of this randomized non-

    inferiority trial was to compare two different treatment strategies using either a PCT

    algorithm or an algorithm based on current guidelines for conducting antibiotic

    therapy. The primary endpoint was the combined medical failure rate of patients. A

    study website provided information on the evidence-based management of all

    patients based on the most recent guidelines 24-28 and explicitly specified the need

    for X-ray confirmation of CAP and for sampling two sets of pre-treatment blood

    cultures. A predefined secondary endpoint of this study was the evaluation of

    prognostic parameters for outcomes and blood culture positivity.

    Full ethical approval for this trial has been obtained from all local ethical committees

    and all patients gave written informed consent.

    Participants and Definitions

    Inclusion criteria for patients were written informed consent, age 18 years and

    admittance from the community or a nursing home with the main diagnosis of LRTI.

    Exclusion criteria were the inability to give written informed consent, insufficient

    German language skills, active illegal intravenous drug use, previous hospitalisation

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    for LRTI within 14 days, severe immunosuppression other than corticosteroids,

    accompanying chronic infection or endocarditis and most severe medical co-

    morbidity where death was imminent.

    LRTI was defined by the presence of at least one respiratory symptom (cough, with

    and without sputum production, dyspnea, tachypnea, pleuritic pain) plus one

    auscultatory finding or one sign of infection (core body temperature > 38.0C,

    shivers, white blood count > 10 G/L or < 4 G/L cells) independent of antibiotic pre-

    treatment. Diagnosis of CAP was made if additionally to the LRTI criteria an

    underlying infiltrate on chest radiograph was present 24 .

    In all patients with a provisional diagnosis of CAP, two pairs of blood cultures for

    both aerobic and anaerobic conditions were collected before starting antibiotic

    therapy. Blood cultures were processed using an automated colorimetric detection

    system (BacT/ALERT, bioMerieux, Durham, NC, USA) in three hospitals and an

    equivalent blood culture system (BACTEC Becton-Dickinson, Cockeysville, Md.) in

    the other three hospitals 29 . If blood culture bottles indicated bacterial growth,

    samples were gram stained and subcultured. The correct identification of the

    pathogen was achieved according to routine laboratory procedures.

    In accordance with a recently published study 6, a bacteremic episode was defined

    as growth of a typical organism for CAP in at least one of four collected blood

    cultures within the first 36 hours of presentation to the ED. Episodes with growth of

    coagulase-negative staphylococci were assumed to be contaminants. Growth of

    Streptococcus spp. other than pneumococci (n=4) and Enterobacteriaeceae (n=3)

    including Serratia marcescens in the blood cultures of one patient were included in

    this analysis, even though a causal relationship with CAP is not clear.

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    Clinical examination and Laboratory data

    In all patients on admission, a thorough clinical examination was performed and two

    prognostic scores (Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) and the CURB-65) werecalculated 30,31 . For all patients laboratory results were collected from the routine

    blood analysis including markers of infection (PCT, CRP and WBC), plasma sodium

    concentration and blood urea nitrogen. CRP concentrations were determined by an

    enzyme immunoassay having a detection limit of < 5 mg/dl (EMIT, Merck

    Diagnostica, Zurich, Switzerland). PCT was measured using a time-resolved

    amplified cryptate emission (TRACE) technology assay (Kryptor PCT, Brahms AG,

    Hennigsdorf, Germany) with a functional assay sensitivity of 0.06 g/L.

    Derivation and Validation Sets

    We used the first 50% of CAP patients (n=463) as the derivation set and the second

    50% (n=462) as the validation set based on the timely inclusion of patients. The

    validation set was not used until the analysis with the derivation set was complete

    and served as an independent test of the derived rule.

    Statistical Analysis

    This report adheres to the STROBE guidelines for reporting observational studies 32 .

    Discrete variables are expressed as counts (percentage) and continuous variables

    as medians and interquartile ranges (IQR). Frequency comparison was done by chi-

    square test. Two-group comparison Mann-Whitney-U test was used. To assess the

    prognostic performance of different parameters to predict blood culture positivity,

    univariate and multivariate regression analysis adjusted for all significant parameters

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    were used. Thereby, logarithmic transformation was performed to obtain normal

    distribution for skewed variables (i.e. PCT concentrations) and outcomes were either

    positive blood cultures or negative blood cultures. Receiver-operating-characteristics

    (ROC) were calculated using STATA 9.2 (Stata Corp, College Station, Tex). All

    testing was two-tailed and P values less than 0.05 were considered to indicate

    statistical significance.

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    Results

    Baseline parameters

    The median age of the overall cohort of 925 CAP patients was 73 years (IQR 59-82)

    and 59% were males. The median PSI score was 91 (IQR 66-115) and 51% of

    patients were in high risk PSI classes IV and V. True positive blood cultures were

    detected overall in 73 patients (43/463 in the derivation cohort and 30/462 in the

    validation cohort); thus the overall rate of true positive blood cultures was 7.9%

    (Figure 1 ). The following pathogens were detected: Streptococcus pneumoniae

    n=59, Escherichia coli n=3, Haemophilus influenzae n=2, Enterobacter cloacae n=2,

    Enterobacter aerogenes n=1, Streptococcus pyogenes n=1, Streptococcus

    acidominimus n=1, Streptococcus mitis n=1, Pseudomonas aeruginosa n=1,

    Staphylococcus aureus n=1, Serratia marcescens n=1. Three patients had

    contamined blood cultures with coagulase-negative staphylococci in a single blood

    culture bottle each. Table 1 shows baseline characteristics on admission of all

    patients (left column) and separated according to blood culture results. Patients with

    positive blood cultures were less frequently admitted from nursing facilities, had less

    frequent antibiotic pretreatment and congestive heart failure, while renal dysfunction

    was more frequent. Laboratory analysis showed that CRP, blood urea nitrogen and

    WBC were significantly higher in patients with positive blood cultures. In addition,

    patients with positive blood cultures had almost 15 fold higher PCT levels compared

    to patients with negative cultures (5.8 vs 0.4 g/L). There was no significant

    difference in PCT levels in patients with Streptococcus pneumoniae as compared to

    patients with other pathogens (median PCT 5.8 g/L (IQR 2.1-21.1) vs 6.3 g/L

    (IQR 3.3-11.4), p=0.98). While, the majority of patients with positive blood cultures

    had increased PCT levels, one patients with a PCT level < 0.1 g/L, and 2 patients

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    with a PCT level < 0.25 g/L had growth of Streptococcus pneumoniae in blood

    cultures. These three patients had an increase of PCT levels of higher than 0.25

    g/L in the follow up PCT measurement. Patients with positive blood cultures were

    more frequently transferred to the ICU, but mortality was similar.

    PCT compared to other parameters to predict positive blood cultures

    In univariate analysis ( Table 2 ), antibiotic pretreatment, congestive heart failure, and

    systolic blood pressure were negative predictive factors for positivity of blood

    cultures. In contrast, renal dysfunction, heart rate, body temperature, blood urea

    nitrogen, white blood count, CRP serum levels, as well as PCT serum levels were

    positive predictors for positive blood cultures. Multivariate logistic regression

    analysis using all significant parameters from univariate analysis showed that only

    antibiotic pretreatment (adjusted OR 0.25 (95%CI 0.08-0.76), p

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    Positive and negative blood cultures within different risk categories

    Blood culture positivity within different risk categories of PCT, CRP and the two

    clinical risk scores (PSI and CURB-65) was assessed. Figure 3 shows percentage

    of patients with positive (dark grey) and negative (light grey) blood cultures within

    risk categories. In patients with a PCT value < 0.1 g/L and between 0.1-0.25 g/L,

    only 0.9% (1/117) and 0.9% (2/224) of patients had positive blood cultures, while

    16.8% (61/364) had positive results with PCT levels > 1.0 g/L. Patients with CRP 0.5 g/L and especially > 1 g/L may help to identify high-

    risk patients who benefit from early and aggressive diagnostic work up and antibiotic

    therapy.

    Routine sampling of blood cultures in CAP patients have been a cornerstone for

    epidemiological reasons, for monitoring antibiotic resistance patterns and for a

    better streamlining of antibiotic therapy in individual patients 1,24,27 . Nevertheless, the

    routine implementation of blood culture sampling in CAP has been questioned,

    because of the low yield of true positive results 4-9 . Consensus guidelines

    encourages a more rational approach to blood culture collection without, however,

    giving specific criteria 24 . Thus, there is an unmet need for accurate predictors of

    blood culture positivity that would increase the pre-test probability of patients and

    thus the yield of blood cultures in CAP. In this context, enormous attempts have

    been undertaken to correlate the levels of different biomarkers and mediators with

    the presence of bacteremia 19,33 . Herein, PCT is a promising biomarker, because it

    correlates with the extent and severity of microbial infection, because of high

    specificity for bacterial etiology of LRTI and the superior clinical usefulness as

    compared to other commonly used laboratory tests, namely CRP and WBC 15-22,33 .

    This study validates a series of previous findings. In accordance with previous

    studies we found that antibiotic pre-treatment is an important factor to decrease the

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    likelihood of positive blood culture findings 6,34 . In a large retrospective cohort study 6

    different predictors for bacteremia in hospitalized CAP patients have been identified.

    Antibiotic pre-treatment and 40C < body temperature < 35C were negative

    predictors, while liver disease, systolic blood pressure < 90 mm Hg, heart rate

    125/min., blood urea nitrogen 11 mmol/L, sodium < 130 mmol/L, WBC 20,000/mm 3 were positive predictors. Using this decision support

    tool in their data would result in 38% fewer blood cultures when compared with the

    standard practice and still allow identification of 88% to 89% of patients with

    bacteremia 6. In our study, we validate these predictors. However, after including

    PCT in multivariate analysis, only antibiotic pre-treatment and PCT remained

    independent predictors. Using a PCT cut off of 0.25 g/L in our study would allow

    reducing the amount of blood culture collection by a similar amount (37%), but still

    result in a higher sensitivity of 96%.

    Waterer and colleagues 7 reported that the yield of positive blood cultures in CAP

    patients increases with increasing PSI. Thus, they concluded that blood cultures

    should be limited to high risk patients in the PSI classes IV and V 7. In the present

    study we found no significant correlation between PSI classes and the yield of

    positive blood cultures, and only a weak association between the CURB-65 score

    and likelihood of positive blood cultures. The PSI is a mortality prediction tool and is

    mainly influenced by the age of patients 30 . Thus, young patients with bacteremic

    CAP usually have a lower PSI but still a high risk of blood culture positivity.

    Based on the results of two 2 retrospective studies reporting a reduced mortality in

    CAP patients who received antibiotic treatment within 4-8 hours, the time to first

    antibiotic dose has recently received significant attention from a quality-of-care

    perspective24

    . Within the ProHOSP trial, PCT was measured using a rapid sensitive

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    assay and an assay time of around 20 minutes 14 . The test was performed on-site at

    the central lab of each participating hospital and results were routinely available

    around the clock within 1 hour and by the time results from routine chemistry were

    available. Thus, if PCT is measured on admission in patients with suspicion of CAP,

    PCT can be used for the evaluation of the patients without putting him at risk

    because of time delays.

    Some limitations merit consideration. First, patients with severe immunosuppression

    were excluded limiting generalization. In blood cultures of seven patients we found

    some pathogens that are not typically found in CAP, and might thus not be the true

    cause for the diagnosed CAP. Although we excluded patients with other sites of

    infection than the respiratory tract it is not entirely possible to rule out the influence

    of concomitant infections. Exclusion of these patients, however, would not have

    altered our results (data not shown).

    In conclusion, this study suggests PCT to be an accurate parameter for predicting

    bacteremia in patients with CAP. Based on the results of this study, we recommend

    to draw blood cultures in CAP patients only when PCT levels are 0.25 g/L or higher

    because the likelihood for bacteremic CAP in patients with lower PCT levels is very

    low. In addition, blood cultures should be considered at lower PCT level, if

    antibiotics are prescribed based on validated overruling criteria especially in areas

    with increased prevalence of resistant organisms. Obviously, the clinical picture of

    bacteraemic infection is far too heterogeneous and complex to be reduced to a

    single cut-off of any surrogate marker. Different microbes might induce distinct

    responses resulting in a variable upregulation of circulating PCT levels. Still, as

    demonstrated in this and other studies, the likelihood for bacterial CAP increases

    gradually with increasing serum levels of PCT, making PCT a putative indicator for

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    blood culture positivity. Thus, used in the proper context of CAP it may result in a

    substantial reduction in the numbers of cultures obtained and to an optimized

    allocation of our limited health care resources and in patient costs.

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    Competing Interest

    No commercial sponsor had any involvement in design and conduct of this study,

    namely collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; and

    preparation, decision to submit, review, or approval of the manuscript.

    PS, MCC and BM received support from BRAHMS to attend meetings and fulfilled

    speaking engagements. BM has served as a consultant and received research

    support. All other authors declare that the answer to the questions on the competing

    interest form are all No and therefore have nothing to declare.

    Contributors

    MCC, BM, WZ and PS had the idea and initiated the study, FM, BM and PS

    performed the analyses and drafted the manuscript. All authors amended and

    commented on the manuscript and approved the final version.

    Acknowledgement

    We are grateful to all local physicians, the nursing staff and patients who

    participated in this study. Especially, we thank the staff of the emergency room,

    medical clinics and central laboratories of the University Hospital Basel, the

    Kantonsspitaeler Liestal, Aarau, Luzern and Muensterlingen and the

    Buergerspital Solothurn for their very helpful assistance, patience and technical

    support. We thank other members of the Data Safety and Monitoring Board, namely

    A.P.Perruchoud, S.Harbarth and A. Azzola and all members of the ProHOSP Study

    Group , namely Robert Thomann, MD, Claudine Falconnier, MD, Marcel Wolbers,

    PHD, Isabelle Widmer, MD, Stefanie Neidert, MD, Thomas Fricker, MD, Claudine

    Blum, MD, Ursula Schild, RN, Katharina Regez, RN, Rita Bossart, RN, Ronald

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    Schoenenberger, MD, Christoph Henzen, MD, Claus Hoess, MD, Heiner C. Bucher,

    MD, Ayesha Chaudri, Jeannine Haeuptle, Roya Zarbosky, Rico Fiumefreddo,

    Melanie Wieland, RN, Charly Nusbaumer, MD, Andres Christ, MD, Roland

    Bingisser, MD, Kristian Schneider, RN, Christine Vincenzi, RN, Michael Kleinknecht,

    RN, Brigitte Walz, PhD, Verena Briner, MD, Dieter Conen, MD, Andreas Huber, MD,

    Jody Staehelin, MD, Aarau, Chantal Bruehlhardt, RN, Ruth Luginbuehl, RN, Agnes

    Muehlemann, PhD, Ineke lambinon and Max Zueger, MD. D.Conen, MD,

    M.Wieland, RN, C.Nusbaumer, MD, C.Bruehlhardt, RN, R.Luginbuehl, RN, A.Huber,

    MD, B.Walz, RN, and M.Zueger, MD.

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    3 Woodhead M, Blasi F, Ewig S, et al. Guidelines for the management of adultlower respiratory tract infections. Eur Respir J 2005; 26:1138-1180

    4 Campbell SG, Marrie TJ, Anstey R, et al. The contribution of blood cultures tothe clinical management of adult patients admitted to the hospital withcommunity-acquired pneumonia: a prospective observational study. Chest2003; 123:1142-1150

    5 Benenson RS, Kepner AM, Pyle DN, 2nd, et al. Selective use of bloodcultures in emergency department pneumonia patients. J Emerg Med 2007;33:1-8

    6 Metersky ML, Ma A, Bratzler DW, et al. Predicting bacteremia in patients withcommunity-acquired pneumonia. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2004; 169:342-347

    7 Waterer GW WR. The influence of the severity of community-acquiredpneumonia on the usefulness of blood cultures. Respir Med 2001; 95:7882

    8 Houck PM, Bratzler DW, Nsa W, et al. Timing of antibiotic administration andoutcomes for Medicare patients hospitalized with community-acquiredpneumonia. Arch Intern Med 2004; 164:637-644

    9 Christ-Crain M, Stolz D, Bingisser R, et al. Procalcitonin guidance of antibiotictherapy in community-acquired pneumonia: a randomized trial. Am J RespirCrit Care Med 2006; 174:84-93

    10 Niederman MS, McCombs JS, Unger AN, et al. The cost of treatingcommunity-acquired pneumonia. Clin Ther 1998; 20:820-837

    11 Marrie TJ. Blood cultures in ambulatory patients who are discharged fromemergency with community-acquired pneumonia. Can J Infect Dis 2004;15:21-24

    12 Shapiro NI, Wolfe RE, Wright SB, et al. Who needs a blood culture? Aprospectively derived and validated prediction rule. J Emerg Med 2008;35:255-264

    13 Bates DW, Cook EF, Goldman L, et al. Predicting bacteremia in hospitalizedpatients. A prospectively validated model. Ann Intern Med 1990; 113:495-500

    14 Schuetz P, Christ-Crain M, Wolbers M, et al. Effect of Procalcitonin-basedGuidelines Compared to Standard Guidelines on Antibiotic Use in LowerRespiratory Tract Infections: The Randomized-Controlled MulticenterProHOSP Trial. JAMA 2009; 302:1059-1066

    15 Harbarth S, Holeckova K, Froidevaux C, et al. Diagnostic value ofprocalcitonin, interleukin-6, and interleukin-8 in critically ill patients admittedwith suspected sepsis. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2001; 164:396-402.

    16 Schuetz P, Mueller B, Trampuz A. Serum Procalcitonin for Discrimination ofBlood Contamination from Bloodstream Infection due to Coagulase-NegativeStaphylococci. Infection 2007

    17 Muller B, Harbarth S, Stolz D, et al. Diagnostic and prognostic accuracy of

    clinical and laboratory parameters in community-acquired pneumonia. BMCInfect Dis 2007; 7:10

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    18 Morgenthaler NG, Struck J, Fischer-Schulz C, et al. Detection of procalcitonin(PCT) in healthy controls and patients with local infection by a sensitive ILMA.Clin Lab 2002; 48:263-270

    19 Christ-Crain M, Muller B. Biomarkers in respiratory tract infections: diagnosticguides to antibiotic prescription, prognostic markers and mediators. Eur

    Respir J 2007; 30:556-57320 Muller B, Becker KL. Procalcitonin: how a hormone became a marker and

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    markers of sepsis in a medical intensive care unit. Crit Care Med 2000;28:977-983

    22 Carrol ED, Mankhambo LA, Jeffers G, et al. The diagnostic and prognosticaccuracy of five markers of serious bacterial infection in Malawian childrenwith signs of severe infection. PLoS One 2009; 4:e6621

    23 Schuetz P, Christ-Crain M, Wolbers M, et al. Procalcitonin guided antibiotictherapy and hospitalization in patients with lower respiratory tract infections: aprospective, multicenter, randomized controlled trial. BMC Health Serv Res2007; 7:102

    24 Mandell LA, Wunderink RG, Anzueto A, et al. Infectious Diseases Society ofAmerica/American Thoracic Society consensus guidelines on themanagement of community-acquired pneumonia in adults. Clin Infect Dis2007; 44 Suppl 2:S27-72

    25 Calverley PM, Walker P. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Lancet2003; 362:1053-1061

    26 Gonzales R, Sande MA. Uncomplicated acute bronchitis. Ann Intern Med2000; 133:981-991

    27 Niederman MS, Mandell LA, Anzueto A, et al. Guidelines for the managementof adults with community-acquired pneumonia. Diagnosis, assessment ofseverity, antimicrobial therapy, and prevention. Am J Respir Crit Care Med2001; 163:1730-1754

    28 Woodhead M, Blasi F, Ewig S, et al. Guidelines for the management of adultlower respiratory tract infections. Eur Respir J 2005; 26:1138-1180

    29 Thorpe TC, Wilson ML, Turner JE, et al. BacT/Alert: an automatedcolorimetric microbial detection system. J Clin Microbiol 1990; 28:1608-1612

    30 Fine MJ, Auble TE, Yealy DM, et al. A prediction rule to identify low-riskpatients with community-acquired pneumonia. N Engl J Med 1997; 336:243-250

    31 Lim WS, van der Eerden MM, Laing R, et al. Defining community acquiredpneumonia severity on presentation to hospital: an international derivationand validation study. Thorax 2003; 58:377-382

    32 von Elm E, Altman DG, Egger M, et al. The Strengthening the Reporting ofObservational Studies in Epidemiology [STROBE] statement: guidelines forreporting observational studies. Gac Sanit 2008; 22:144-150

    33 Schuetz P, Christ-Crain M, Muller B. Procalcitonin and other biomarkers toimprove assessment and antibiotic stewardship in infections - hope for hype?Swiss Med Wkly 2009; 139:318-326

    34 Glerant JC, Hellmuth D, Schmit JL, et al. Utility of blood cultures incommunity-acquired pneumonia requiring hospitalization: influence of

    antibiotic treatment before admission. Respir Med 1999; 93:208-212

    age 19 of 29

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    Table 1 Baseline characteristics of the overall 925 patients with CAP separated bypositive blood cultures (n=73) and negative or contaminated blood cultures (n=852).

    All

    (n=925)

    Positiveblood cultures

    (n=73)

    Negative orcontaminatedblood cultures

    (n=852)

    p-value

    Demographic characteristics no. (%)

    Age (years)* 73 (59-82) 72 (56-81) 73 (59-82) 0.34

    Male 544 (59) 42 (57) 502 (59) 0.82 Admitted from nursing facility 53 (6) 0 (0) 53 (6) 0.03 Antibiotic pretreatment 236 (26) 5(7) 231 (27)

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    Table 2 Predictors for positive blood cultures (n=73) in univariate logistic regression

    analysis of CAP patients (n=925).

    Predictor Odds ratio (95% CI) P-value

    Clinical historyAntibiotic pretreatment 0.20 0.08 0.50 0.001Congestive heart failure 0.41 0.17 0.96

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    Table 3

    Derivation set (n=463)

    Parameters AUC 95%CI Sensitivity Specificity LR+ LR-

    Procalcitonin 0.83 0.78-0.89

    > 0.1 g/L 98% 16% 1.16 0.15

    > 0.25 g/L 98% 42% 1.66 0.06

    > 0.5 g/L 95% 55% 2.14 0.08

    > 1.0 g/L 88% 66% 2.62 0.17

    Validation set (n=462)

    Parameters AUC 95%CI Sensitivity Specificity LR+ LR-

    Procalcitonin 0.79 0.72-0.88

    > 0.1 g/L 100% 11% 1.12 0.01

    > 0.25 g/L 93% 38% 1.5 0.18

    > 0.5 g/L 80% 54% 1.74 0.37> 1.0 g/L 76% 63% 2.04 0.37

    Overall cohort (n=925)

    Parameters AUC 95%CI Sensitivity Specificity LR+ LR-

    Procalcitonin 0.82 0.78-0.87

    > 0.1 g/L 99% 13% 1.14 0.1

    > 0.25 g/L 96% 40% 1.59 0.11

    > 0.5 g/L 88% 55% 1.94 0.23

    > 1.0 g/L 84% 64% 2.35 0.26

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    Table 4 Estimation of costs according to different PCT cut off values

    No PCT measurement,Blood culture in all patients

    PCT cut off0.1 g/L

    PCT cut off0.25 g/L

    PCT0.5

    Reduction in blood culture collection (%) - 12.6% 36.9% 51.5%

    Total costs for blood culture collection in USD 134125 117225 84633 65051

    Total costs for initial PCT measurement in USD - 27`750 27`750 27`750

    Total costs per patient in USD 145 157 121 100

    Missed pathogens in blood cultures, n (%) - 1 (1.4%) 3 (4.1%) 9 (12.3%)

    Number needed to screen to detect 1 pathogen 12.7 11.2 8.3 7.0

    NOTE.- CAP community-acquired pneumonia, PCT procalcitonin, USD US-Dollars; for cost calculatio

    cultures and 30 USD per PCT measurement was assumed.

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    Appendix I Area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating curve (ROC) characteristic plot analysis and Dia

    Parameters AUC 95%CI p Sensitivity SpecifProcalcitonin 0.82 0.77-0.86

    > 0.1 g/L 99% 13

    > 0.25 g/L 96% 40> 0.5 g/L 88% 55> 1.0 g/L 84% 64

    C-Reactive Protein 0.67 0.59-0.74 20 mg/L 96% 9% > 50 mg/L 89% 18%> 100 mg/L 81% 33%> 200 mg/L 61% 64%

    Blood urea nitrogen 0.64 0.57-0.71 11 mmol/l 32% 78%

    White blood count 0.58 0.50-0.65

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    Figure Legends:

    Figure 1: Patient flow in the derivation and the validation cohort

    CAP community-acquired pneumonia, LRTI lower respiratory tract infection, COPD

    chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

    Figure 2: Receiver operating Curves analysis

    A. Comparing Derivation and validation cohort

    B. Comparing PCT and other laboratory and clinical parameters in the overall cohort

    Figure 3: Percentage of patients with positive (dark grey) and negative (light grey)

    blood cultures within different risk categories.

    age 25 of 29

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    Figure 1 Flow chart

    Figure 2. Receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis

    Figure 3. All CAP patients (n=925) with positive (dark grey) and negative (light grey)

    blood cultures within different risk categories.

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    Flow chart

    ge 27 of 29

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    ROC curves

    Page 28 of 29

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    Figure 3. All CAP patients (n=925) with positive (dark grey) and negative (light grey) blood cultures

    within different risk categories.

    ge 29 of 29

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    DOI 10.1378/chest.09-2920; Prepublished online March 18, 2010;Chest

    Zimmerli, Beat Mueller, Philipp Schuetz and for the ProHOSP Study GroupFabian Mller, Mirjam Christ-Crain, Thomas Bregenzer, Martin Krause, Werner

    community-acquired Pneumonia: A prospective cohort trial.Procalcitonin levels Predict Bacteremia in Patients with

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