Problem Solving

Objectives

Learn how to state and clarify a problemDevelop a procedure for problem solvingLearn the traps

in problem solving

What’s typical?Self-Doubt

Over Confidence

Procrastination

Flip-flops

Desperation! WRONG!

Six Criteria for Effective Decisions

Focuses on what is important Logical and consistent Acknowledges objective and subjective factors,

blends analytical and intuitive thinkingDoes not gather too much information Tries to reach consensus Straightforward, reliable, easy to use, flexible

Problem Solving Model

POACT

roblem

bjectives

lternatives

onsequences

radeoffs

Additional Factors

Risk

Uncertainty

Linked decisions

Problem Solving Steps

State the problem carefully Acknowledge complexities Avoid assumptions and prejudices

Specify the objectives Create imaginative alternatives Understand the consequences of the

alternative Grapple with your tradeoffs………con’t

Problem Solving Steps, con’t

Clarify uncertainties Think about your risk tolerance and the

risks of each alternative Consider linked decisions

Each alternative opens or closes future options

What’s the best solution?

A good solutionto a well-posed problem….

An excellentsolution to apoorly posedproblem

Is a almost always

a smarterchoicethan..

Define the Problem• What triggers the problem? • State the problem• Question the constraints of the problem statement• Identify the essential elements• How does this impact other decisions?• What is the scope of the problem?• Gain insights from others• Restate problem, if necessary

What Objectives Do

Help determine what information to seek

Explain your choices to others Determine the importance of,

time and effort devoted to the problem

How to identify objectives

Write down the concerns you hope to address: Wish list Worst possible outcome Impact on others Insights from others What’s a good alternative but unfeasible? What is bad about the worst alternatives?

How to identify objectives

Convert the concerns into succinct objectives

Separate the ends from the meansClarify what you mean by each objective Test your objectives

Alternatives

Use your objects and ask HOW? Challenge constraints to your alternatives Set high aspirationsThink through your alternatives before

consulting others Learn from past experience Then ask others for suggestions

How to generate alternatives

Brainstorming Just list alternatives, don’t evaluate Never stop looking for alternatives Look for win-win alternatives

Stop when you’ve thought through alternatives

One solution would satisfy you But still have a range of alternatives

Consequences

List the consequences of each alternative Assess the future consequences of each

alternative Create a free-form description of the

consequences Eliminate any clearly inferior alternatives Organize descriptions of remaining

alternatives into a table …….

Consequences

Try to develop a common scale to measure consequences

Use qualitative and quantitative data Use experts if necessary Use scales that reflect appropriate levels of

precision

Tradeoffs

Eliminate alternatives clearly dominated by others

Then swaps between alternatives using measures

Value incremental improvements Make consistent tradeoffs

Uncertainties

What are the key uncertainties? What are the possible outcomes of these

uncertainties? What are the changes of the outcomes,

given these uncertainties? What are the consequences of each

outcome?….

Uncertainties

Identify the key uncertainties Define the possible outcomes Assign chance of occurrence of each

outcome Clarify consequences using quantitative

and qualitative measures Create a decision tree

Risk Tolerance

How much risk do you want to handle? How much are others affected by your

decision? Quantify the risks, if possible Seek to lessen the risks but avoid foolish

optimism Don’t avoid making risky decisions just

because they are complex

How to lessen risk

Seek risk reducing information Diversify the risk Hedge the risk Insure against the risk

Linked decisions

Choose options that leave future flexibility intact

Get timing right on decision tree Describe the consequences at the end

points

Psychological Traps

Working on the wrong problem Failing to identify key objectives Failing to develop a range of good, creative

alternatives Overlooking crucial consequences of your

alternatives Giving inadequate thought to tradeoffs Disregarding uncertainty…….

Traps, con’t

Failing to account for risk intoleranceFailing to plan ahead when decisions are

linked over time...

So, tell me some specifics on these traps...

Common Traps

Anchoring trapStatus Quo TrapSunk Cost TrapConfirming

Evidence Trap Framing Trap

Overconfidence Trap

Recallability Trap

Base Rate Trap Prudence Trap Random Events

Review

A model for problem solving

The actions in each of the steps

Common Traps in problem solving