Problem-Solving and Decision-Making Processes: Deliberation, Intuition, and Expertise CHAPTER 1:

Click here to load reader

  • date post

    17-Dec-2015
  • Category

    Documents

  • view

    220
  • download

    3

Embed Size (px)

Transcript of Problem-Solving and Decision-Making Processes: Deliberation, Intuition, and Expertise CHAPTER 1:

  • Slide 1
  • Problem-Solving and Decision-Making Processes: Deliberation, Intuition, and Expertise CHAPTER 1:
  • Slide 2
  • Layout of the Book Part 1: overview of problem solving/decision making Part 2. Empiricism. Light on stats, more on JDM Part 3. Decision making Part 4. Influence and group decision making
  • Slide 3
  • Terminology Problem Problem solving Decision Decision making Judgment
  • Slide 4
  • The Problem Space
  • Slide 5
  • Navigating The Problem Space
  • Slide 6
  • Deliberative Method State, or frame, the problem to be solved; Identify and prioritize the relevant values, interests and objectives; Identify and resolve major uncertainties concerning the cause of the problem; Generate a range of plausible solutions or alternative courses of action; Predict the consequences of the courses of action and assess their impact on the relevant interests or objectives. Select the course of action that optimizes the interests or objectives to be served (i.e., make a decision); Implement, observe and learn from the outcome of the decision.
  • Slide 7
  • Evers v. Newport Records Anna Wilkins, associate. Luis Trujillo partner Represent Clyde Evers in breach of contract case Evers sold custom accounting software to Newport Records for $600,000. Newport refuses to pay, saying that the software does not do what Evers said it would do. Evers upset that nothing had happened since the case was filed. Asks Anna to hasten its resolution. Wilkins: Contract disclaims any warranty of performance. -> Proposes summary judgment.
  • Slide 8
  • Evers v. Newport Records (cond) Trujillo Judge skeptical about summary judgment. Evers may have made extravagant oral representations. Even if not formally binding, they may bias the judge further against summary judgment. Written disclaimer is not in the particular typeface required by law. Judge may have the jury determine whether or not the Newports president actually read and understood the disclaimer. Newport may have a claim against Evers for breach of warranty. The statute of limitations on Newports claimwhich is shorter than that governing Evers claimis about to run out. Evers motion may lead Newports lawyer to wake up and file a claim. Cost of litigating the motion for summary judgment. If the motion is denied, Evers costs will be increased. If the motion is granted, Newport Records will likely appeal, with attendant costs and the possibility of still having to go to trial.
  • Slide 9
  • Divergent and Convergent Aspect of Deliberative Problem Solving
  • Slide 10
  • Whats Unusual About This Hand?
  • Slide 11
  • System 1 (intuitive) System 2 (reflective) Process Characteristics Automatic Controlled Effortless Effortful Associative Deductive Rapid, parallel Slow, serial Process opaque Self-aware Skilled action Rule application Content on which Processes Act Affective Neutral Causal properties Statistics Concrete, specific Abstract Prototypes Sets The two-systems model of information processing
  • Slide 12
  • Bat and Ball Together, a bat and a ball cost $1.10 The bat costs a dollar more than the ball How much does the ball cost?
  • Slide 13
  • Bat and Ball Together, a bat and a ball cost $1.10 The bat costs a dollar more than the ball How much does the ball cost? $1.05 (bat) + $0.05 (ball) = $1.10 We know how to calculate the right answer, but sometimes the answer that jumps to mind slips out.
  • Slide 14
  • Heuristics Mental shortcuts used in judgment and decision making Fast and efficient Serve us well most of the time but not always