Problem DefinitionFraming Decision Problems

Caribbean LCC

June 3-4, 9-10

Mitch Eaton

DOI – SE Climate Science Center

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Problem Framing for CLCC

“The Caribbean LCC Science Plan Development Team wants to do X to achieve Y over time Z and in place W

considering B”

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Problem Definition

Clearly defining the problem to be addressed guides the rest of the structured decision making process

Must Address at Least the Following:

1. Who is/are the decision maker(s)

Scope & jurisdictional breadth

2. What is the actual decision to be made

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Problem Definition

The problem statement includes other components essential to finding a viable solution Problem scope & scale Constraints and uncertainties (that impede decisions)

Problem definition is the foundation of decision making and often one of the hardest steps in

the process

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Human Nature:

Assuming the problem has defined itself and moving straight into Alternatives

“…we’ve got a problem…”

so “…what are we going to do?”

“alternative-focused” thinking

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Value-Focused Thinking

Problems are not simply technical or scientific

Public decisions involve societal values Benefits include

Opens new paths to solutions Greater buy-in by diverse stakeholders Transparency Applies science appropriately & efficiently

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Considerations

1. Is there a recognizable decision? What is a decision?

2. Is the problem tractable?3. Is the problem framed appropriately?

Decision context & objectives compatible? Scale mismatch?

Are we all in agreement that we’re solving the right problem?

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1) Problems as Decisions

Decision defined: An outcome of a cognitive process leading

to the selection of a course of action among several alternatives

“An irrevocable allocation of resources…” (Howard 1966)

Relative to who is responsible for the decision Who has authority to select, allocate, etc.?

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2) Is the Problem Tractable?

Is the problem, as stated, within our ability to solve? Is it tractable?

Intractable Problems: Out of ‘our’ control (i.e., boundless, authority)? Require a greater level of investment than

available Time, Personnel, Budget, etc.

Failure is likely unless we re-define the problem so that it is within our ability to solve

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3) Framing the Problem

Components of a decision frame:1. Decision Context

Set of alternatives appropriate to consider in the situation. I.e., the activities being considered.

Related to objectives b/c they are being deliberated. Must describe all the ways that objectives can be achieved

2. Fundamental Objectives Values made explicit. Describe the basis for the decision

context Must be sufficient to evaluate all alternatives under

consideration

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Problem frame: matching scale & scope

strategicobjectives

fundamentalobjectives

strategicdecisioncontext

fundamentaldecisioncontext

Mismatched decision context

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Mis-matches of scale & scope

fundamentalobjectives (why)

meansobjectives (how)

fundamentaldecisioncontext

Alternative-focused thinking

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Mis-matches of scale & scope

Conserve migratory

waterfowl

NWR Impoundment Management

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Mis-matches of scale & scope

CLCC decision context

understand,

refine, enhance,

establish,

analyze, develop,

create, overcome,

inform, visualize,

expand, connect Individual

Agency Obj.

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Additional framing considerations

Trigger Why does a decision need to be made?

Frequency & Timing When & how often will the decision be made? Are other decisions linked to this one?

Breadth How large, broad, complicated is the problem/decision?

Constraints Legal, financial, political, ‘minimum performance’ Perceived or real constraints?

Uncertainty Is it important to the decision

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Pitfall: Frame Blindness

Are there other perspectives that aren’t being considered?

Are any perceived constraints imaginary?

Are perceived uncertainties relevant? Are we biased by earlier actions,

successes, or failures? Are we making any false assumptions?

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4) Basis of a Problem Statement

“The Caribbean LCC Science Plan Development Team wants to do X to achieve Y over time Z and in place W

considering B,”

X – decision context Y – fundamental/strategic objectives Framing:

Z – spatial scale W – temporal scale B – constraints

strategicobjectives (CLCC)

fundamentalobjectives (partners)

strategicdecision

context (CLCC)fundamental

decisioncontext (partners)