ProbabilityProbability(A mathematical (A mathematical

masterpiece )masterpiece )By: Fynn B. and Ethan K.By: Fynn B. and Ethan K.

What is Probability?What is Probability?

Probability is the likelihood of Probability is the likelihood of something happening.something happening.

For example, if you flipped a coin, For example, if you flipped a coin, there would be a 1 in 2 chance that there would be a 1 in 2 chance that it lands face up or face down. This is it lands face up or face down. This is called an even chance. called an even chance.

The opposite of this would be an The opposite of this would be an extremely probable event, or an extremely probable event, or an extremely improbable event.extremely improbable event.

How does Probability How does Probability Work?Work?

When calculating probability you take the When calculating probability you take the number of ways something can happen, and number of ways something can happen, and divide it by the number of possible outcomes. divide it by the number of possible outcomes.

For example, if you wanted to get heads on a For example, if you wanted to get heads on a coin by flipping it, you would say there is one coin by flipping it, you would say there is one way that can happen, (by getting heads on way that can happen, (by getting heads on the coin). So, you divide 1 by 2 because there the coin). So, you divide 1 by 2 because there are two possible outcomes: you get heads, or are two possible outcomes: you get heads, or you get tails. So you would get .5, which you get tails. So you would get .5, which would mean you have a 50% chance to get would mean you have a 50% chance to get heads or tails. heads or tails.

Ideas about ProbabilityIdeas about Probability

In probability, there are two main In probability, there are two main things you have to think about. If things you have to think about. If you took a coin and flipped it, the you took a coin and flipped it, the outcome would be completely outcome would be completely random. But if you flipped, say, 100 random. But if you flipped, say, 100 coins the outcome would be more coins the outcome would be more predictable.predictable.

What is the probability of answering What is the probability of answering 10/10 on a multiple choice test if you 10/10 on a multiple choice test if you answered each question randomly? answered each question randomly? Each question has 4 answers. Each question has 4 answers.

Hint: you have a 1 in 4 chance to get Hint: you have a 1 in 4 chance to get 1 question right. 1 question right.

AnswerAnswer

There is a 1 in 1 048 576 chance. There is a 1 in 1 048 576 chance. There are 10 questions so multiply ¼ by 10. There are 10 questions so multiply ¼ by 10. You then have 1/40 which is 0.025.You then have 1/40 which is 0.025. You then put that to the power of ten. You then put that to the power of ten.

Which is equal to 1 048 576. Which is equal to 1 048 576. There is a 1 in 4 chance for There is a 1 in 4 chance for eacheach question, question,

and the chance of you getting multiple and the chance of you getting multiple questions right in a row goes down for the questions right in a row goes down for the more questions you have. That’s why you more questions you have. That’s why you must put 1/40 to the power of 10.must put 1/40 to the power of 10.

Probability, A Kind of Probability, A Kind of EstimatingEstimating

Aristotle said, “The probable is what usually Aristotle said, “The probable is what usually happens.” This is one of the key ideas when happens.” This is one of the key ideas when determining probability. determining probability.

In probability, there isn’t a guaranteed way In probability, there isn’t a guaranteed way to find out if something is going to happen. to find out if something is going to happen. It could be very likely or very unlikely, but It could be very likely or very unlikely, but that doesn’t mean anything for certain. That that doesn’t mean anything for certain. That is, unless something is certain or is actually is, unless something is certain or is actually impossible, but questions like that are impossible, but questions like that are usually quite easy to spot.usually quite easy to spot.

Probability in the Real Probability in the Real WorldWorld

People use probability in the real world all People use probability in the real world all the time. Blackjack players use probability to the time. Blackjack players use probability to predict what card is most likely next. predict what card is most likely next.

Stock brokers must think of the factors that Stock brokers must think of the factors that affect the market, and what stock is most affect the market, and what stock is most likely to rise. likely to rise.

And every time any of you guys say things to And every time any of you guys say things to your friends like “bet you can’t eat an entire your friends like “bet you can’t eat an entire bag of jellybeans through your nose!” You bag of jellybeans through your nose!” You think it’s quite probable that your friend think it’s quite probable that your friend won’t be able to do that. won’t be able to do that.

Each person will flip their coin ten Each person will flip their coin ten times. Record how many times it times. Record how many times it lands on one side and how many lands on one side and how many times it lands on the other. If it is a times it lands on the other. If it is a 50/50 chance, why don’t you always 50/50 chance, why don’t you always get the same number of each side?get the same number of each side?

AMAZIIIIIING FACTS! AMAZIIIIIING FACTS! (About probability)(About probability)

Winning the lottery: 1 in 13 983 816Winning the lottery: 1 in 13 983 816 Dying of a flesh eating disease: 1 in 1,000,000Dying of a flesh eating disease: 1 in 1,000,000 It is 400 more times likely you will die from a toilet than a sharkIt is 400 more times likely you will die from a toilet than a shark Odds of getting a hole in one 1 in 5000Odds of getting a hole in one 1 in 5000 Odds of injury from shaving 1 in 6585Odds of injury from shaving 1 in 6585 Odds of drowning in a bathtub: 1 in 685,000 Odds of drowning in a bathtub: 1 in 685,000 Odds of being on plane with a drunken pilot: 1 in 117Odds of being on plane with a drunken pilot: 1 in 117 Odds of finding a four-leaf clover on first try: 1 in 10,000Odds of finding a four-leaf clover on first try: 1 in 10,000 Odds of a meteor landing on your house: 1 in Odds of a meteor landing on your house: 1 in

182,138,880,000,000182,138,880,000,000 Chance of contracting the human version of mad cow disease: 1 Chance of contracting the human version of mad cow disease: 1

in 40,000,000in 40,000,000 Chance of American man developing cancer in his lifetime: 1 in 2Chance of American man developing cancer in his lifetime: 1 in 2 Chance of an American woman developing cancer in her lifetime: Chance of an American woman developing cancer in her lifetime:

1 in 31 in 3 Odds of becoming president: 1 in 10,000,000Odds of becoming president: 1 in 10,000,000 Odds that a celebrity marriage will last a lifetime: 1 in 3Odds that a celebrity marriage will last a lifetime: 1 in 3

BibliographyBibliography http://www.funny2.com/odds.htm http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/

probability-events-independent.html probability-events-independent.html http://www.funtrivia.com/en/SciTech/http://www.funtrivia.com/en/SciTech/

Statistics-and-Probability-7615.html Statistics-and-Probability-7615.html http://www.ehow.com/list_7719506_real-http://www.ehow.com/list_7719506_real-

life-probability-examples.html life-probability-examples.html http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/users/http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/users/

stark/SticiGui/Text/stark/SticiGui/Text/probabilityPhilosophy.htm probabilityPhilosophy.htm

The End!The End!

We know you enjoyed the cooliest We know you enjoyed the cooliest presentation you have ever received, presentation you have ever received, and hoped you learned some stuff and hoped you learned some stuff about probability, too. about probability, too.