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Probabilistic Decision-Making and Weather Assessment Activity Overview This module is designed to be an assessment of the probabilistic decision-making using weather forecasts learning modules. The students will demonstrate a mastery of both probabilistic decision making and weather science from previous modules. The assessment is divided into four sections. As in the previous modules, the assessment is written with numerous hints such lack of mathematical concepts does not restrict assessment of probabilistic decision making. For example, the assessment is written with hints such that multiplication by percentages does not become the focus of the assessment. Each section will take approximately 20 minutes or one-half of 40-minute period. Teachers have a great deal of flexibility in terms of the assessments used to meet the objectives of the entire set of decision making and weather learning modules. The teacher can use one or all four assessments or they can use their own assessments. Assessments Available There are four assessments in this module. 1. Science weather assessment map, multiple

choice questions, and matching questions, 2. Students use their knowledge of

probabilities and weather to create one-day ahead precipitation forecasts,

3. Students use their knowledge of probabilities and weather to create long-range precipitation and temperature forecasts, and

Teacher Edition 1 – 2 days

4. Students use their knowledge of

probabilistic decision-making and the forecasts from section 2 and 3 to create and evaluate a decision problem using the decision tree approach.

Suggested use of the assessment is for individual assessment, but the assessment will also work as a group assessment. To simplify grading, it is suggested the teacher provide the correct answers to sections 2 and 3 before students’ complete section 4. One or all four sections can be used. Use the questions / sections most appropriate for your classroom situation. If only section 4 is to be used, provide the students with the short- and long-range forecasts from sections 2 and 3. Teaching Summary Step 1 Assessment One - Science Concepts Step 2 Assessment Two - One-day Ahead Forecasts Step 3 Assessment Three - Long-Range Forecasts Suggested split for day 1 and day 2 is between Assessments 3 and 4. Step 4 Assessment Four - Probabilistic Decision Making

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Materials Needed For the Teacher None For the Student A copy of the appropriate assessments is necessary for each student or group. National Standards Module provides integrated approach to address science, math, reading and geography national standards. See Teacher Guide for specific standards addressed for grades 5-8. Texas Essential Knowledge and Skills (TEKS) Module provides integrated approach to address science, math, reading, and geography standards. See Teacher Guide for specific standards addressed for grades sixth, seventh, and eighth. Weather Folklore Evening red and morning gray are sure signs of

a fine day. Evening gray and morning red put on your hat or

you’ll wet your head. Music Selection Willie Nelson - Blue Skies Teaching Suggestions This assessment is broken into various sections. The first section provides science related questions. Use the questions as appropriate. In the second section, students make short-range weather forecasts, whereas long-range forecasts are made in section three. The fourth section combines the entire decision making unit. This fourth section also introduces another way of using probabilities to make decisions. Teachers have a great deal of flexibility in using the assessments. Assessment one is a stand

alone assessment. Assessments Two and Three test the students’ knowledge of probabilities and making inferences from data and maps. Assessment Four uses forecasts developed in Assessments Two and Three to assess the students’ decision making skills. The assessments will also work as in class or take home assignment(s). Step 1 – Science Concepts Three different types of science concepts assessments are included. The first assesses the students’ knowledge of weather map symbols and their ability to properly create a weather map. The second assessment tests students’ knowledge of weather concepts and weather map symbols through a matching test. Multiple choice questions on weather concepts make up the third assessment. It is suggested to use only the matching or multiple choice assessment, but not both. Use of the weather map assessment depends on the course objectives. Step 2 – One-Day Ahead Forecasts Assessment In this assessment, students are required to use data, weather maps, and knowledge of probabilities to develop one-day ahead rainfall forecasts. Hints similar to these given in previous learning modules are provided so knowledge of probabilities does not limit the use of the assessment. Forecasts developed in this assessment are use in Assessment Four. If the teacher chooses not to use this assessment, Assessment Four can still be used by providing the students with the forecasts. Step 3 – Long-Range Forecasts Assessment In this assessment, students are required to use data and knowledge of probabilities to develop

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long-range temperature, rainfall, and temperature / rainfall forecasts. Hints similar to these given in previous learning modules are provided so knowledge of probabilities does not limit the use of the assessment. Forecasts developed in this assessment are used in Assessment Four. If the teacher chooses not to use this assessment, Assessment Four can still be used by providing the students with the forecasts. Step 4 – Probabilistic Decision Making Assessment The students’ understanding of decision making is assessed in this assessment. Students are required to understand using probabilities to properly complete the assessment. Two different decision making strategies are used in this assessment. Students are introduced to a new decision making strategy through a series of questions in the Probabilistic Decision Making – Long-Range Forecasts assessment. Through a series of simple questions based on the long-range forecasts developed in Assessment Three, students learn to use probabilities to choose the decision that has the maximum (minimum) probability of occurrence. In the Probabilistic Decision Making – One- Day Ahead Assessment, students create a decision tree(s), use probabilities to calculate expected values, and make the appropriate decisions. This assessment using the information taught in the learning modules. Both or our one of the Probabilistic Decision Making Assessments can be used. If only one assessment is to be used, it is suggested the one-day ahead assessment be used. This assessment requires the use of the forecast generated in Assessments Two and Three. Flexibility is provided here as Assessments Two and Three do not have to be completed by the students to complete the assessment. The teacher can provide the forecasts and skip Assessments Two and Three. In fact, it is

suggested the teacher provide the correct forecast to the students before completing this assessments to ease grading. Extended / Enrichment Assessment Delete hints from Assessments Two, Three, and Four. Complete the decision tree, expected values, and make a decision for the one-day ahead forecast based on data table and map 2. Complete the decision tree, expected values, and make a decision for either or both one-day ahead forecasts with a shelter pass cost of $1 if bought early and $4 if bought the day of the fieldtrip. Struggling Students Provide partially filled in assessment sheets to diminish the mathematical requirements. Provide a blank decision tree or partially completed decision tree. Allow students to use calculators to diminish the mathematical requirements. Finish / Turn in Weather Journal Assessment One – Science Concepts This assessment contains a weather map section, matching, and multiple-choice questions that pertain to understanding the science component of the learning modules. Use the questions as appropriate for your class. Feel free to use your own questions.

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Weather Map Symbols

Place the correct symbol on a weather map for the following components of weather for January 25th. 1. Place a high-pressure system over the

northwestern U.S. 2. Place a low-pressure system in the eastern

U.S. near the State of New York. 3. Put a cold front that extends from the Great

Lakes to the southwestern U.S.

4. Put a warm front that extends from southeastern U.S. into the Atlantic Ocean.

5. Put a stationary front that extends across the northwest U.S. in front of the high-pressure.

6. Note that it will rain in front of the warm

front. 7. Note that is will snow in front of the cold

front in the Midwest.

H

L

Snow

Rain

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Matching Questions

Put the correct letter of the definition in front of the term / phrase.

J 1. Air Mass A. Heating caused by having an atmosphere

E 2. Symbol for Cold Front B. The weight of air surrounding an object

B 3. Air Pressure C. Transfer of heat energy in a fluid

G 4. Symbol for Warm Front D. Measures wind speed

C 5. Convection E.

P 6. Thermometer F. A relatively narrow band of strong wind in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

F 7. Jet Stream G.

I 8. Symbol for Stationary Front H. The transfer of heat energy from one substance to another substance

H 9. Conduction I.

O 10. Source Region J. Large body of air with uniform temperature humidity.

M 11. Rain Gauge K. Measures air pressure

K 12. Barometer L. How most of the energy from the sun reaches the earth

L 13. Radiation M. Instrument used to measure precipitation

A 14. Greenhouse Effect N. Measures wind direction

N 15. Wind Vane O. Area from which an air mass originates

D 16. Anemometer P. Measure the temperature of an object

Q 17. Pressure Gradient Q. The difference in pressure between a high and low pressure system

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Multiple Choice Questions

Directions: Choose the best answer for the following questions. ___ 1. In any given area, how long can air masses control the weather?

A. Four days B. Days to Months C. Six weeks D. One Month

___ 2. Why are fronts important when talking about weather change?

A. Most weather changes mostly occur along fronts. B. Fronts have nothing to do with weather change. C. Fronts indicate when the weather will be warmer. D. Cold fronts indicate warmer air is replacing cold air

___ 3. In what part of a front do most weather changes occur?

A. In the middle of a front B. On the side of a front C. Along the boundary of a front D. Weather changes do not occur on fronts

___ 4. What is a cold front? A. Cold air replacing warm air B. Warm air replacing cold air C. A front that is not moving D. A front undercutting another front ___ 5. What is a warm front? A. Cold air replacing warm air B. Warm air replacing cold air C. A front that is not moving D. A front undercutting another front ___ 6. What is a stationary front? A. Cold air replacing warm air B. Warm air replacing cold air C. A front that is not moving D. A front undercutting another front

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___ 7. What is an occluded front? A. Cold air replacing warm air B. Warm air replacing cold air C. A front that is not moving D. A front undercutting another front ___ 8. Which of the following is a form of precipitation?

A. Rain B. Tornado C. Wind D. Thunder

___ 9. Which of the following is an effective way for clouds to form? A. Horizontal winds moving moisture to the east B. A high pressure air mass remaining in place for several days C. Winds blowing from land to the ocean D. Forcing air to rise near fronts or low pressure systems ___10. What often determines the type of precipitation (rain, snow, sleet) during the winter? A. Horizontal distribution of temperature B. North / south distribution of temperature C. East / west distribution of temperature D. Vertical distribution of temperature ___11. What type of weather is associated with a high-pressure system? A. Fair weather B. Stormy weather C. Change in the weather ___12. What type of weather is associated with a low-pressure system? A. Fair weather B. Stormy weather C. Change in the weather ___13. Why does the air pressure decrease the higher one goes up a mountain side? A. Air pressure does not change as one goes up a mountain side B. More air is present, therefore the weight is less C. Low pressure systems are associated with mountain tops D. Less air is present, therefore the weight is less

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___14. What happens to most of the solar (sun’s) energy that reaches the earth’s surface? A. It warms the earth surface B. It cools the earth surface so the surface is not too hot to live on C. Heating by conduction occurs D. It is radiated back into the atmosphere to become heat energy ___15. How can heat transfer in the atmosphere cause wind? A. Raising hot air is replaced by surrounding cooler air B. Raising cool air is replaced by surrounding warm air C. Heat transfer can not cause wind, wind is air movement D. Sinking hot air is replaced by surrounding cooler air ___16. Why are nights cooler when there are no clouds? A. There are no clouds to trap heat energy from the earth’s surface B. Clouds trap the heat energy from the earth’s surface leading to warming nights C. Heat transfer at night causes wind, which changes the temperature

D. Clear and cloudy nights are the same temperature if the daytime temperatures are the same ___17. What can cause clouds to form? A. Air cools to its dew point B. Air reaches its saturation point C. Air with little moisture content

D. A and B __18. Why does rising warm air become cool? A. As air rising, air pressure increases cause the air to cool B. Raising air expands causing it to lose heat C. Raising air has more moisture content

D. Raising does not cool __19. Why does sinking air result in fair weather? A. As air sinks it cools, causing evaporation of clouds B. Sinking air is not associated with fair weather, but rather stormy weather C. As air sinks it warms up, causing evaporation of clouds

D. As air sinks it warms up, causing clouds to form

__20. Which holds more water vapor, cold or warm air? A. They hold the same amount of water vapor B. Cold air C. Warm air

D. Temperature has nothing to do with holding water vapor

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__21. What is the greenhouse effect? A. Heat energy generated by power plants B. Cloudy night tend to warmer than clear nights C. Heating effect caused by having an atmosphere

D. Clear nights tent to warmer than cloudy nights ___22. In which season are jet streams the strongest?

A. Fall B. Spring C. Summer D. Winter

___23. In what general direction do the winds blow in a jet stream?

A. North to South B. South to North C. East to West D. West to East

___24. What makes up the air we breathe?

A. Particles B. Molecules C. Atoms and Molecules D. Atoms

___ 25. In which of the following ways can heat be transferred?

A. Radiation B. Conduction C. Convection D. All of the above

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Answer Key for Multiple Choice Questions Question Answer

1 B 2 A 3 C 4 A 5 B 6 C 7 D 8 A 9 D

10 D 11 A 12 B 13 D 14 D 15 A 16 A 17 D 18 B 19 C 20 C 21 C 22 D 23 D 24 C 25 D

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Assessment Two – Making a Rainfall Forecast for One-Day Ahead Objective The students will be able to make a simple rainfall forecast based on weather maps and rainfall data.

Materials A copy of the assessment

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Making a Rainfall Forecast for One-Day Ahead Directions Use your knowledge of probabilities and science concepts to develop day-ahead rainfall forecasts by answering the following questions. In the following historical data tables, the weather map was observed one day before the

rainfall amounts were observed. You will use the data and forecast map to create rainfall forecasts for one-day ahead. The rainfall data is for Waco Texas.

Data Table 1 Map 1 – Cold Front in Colorado / North Texas

Observation Rain 1 0.01 2 0.00 3 0.93 4 0.00 5 0.00 6 0.18 7 0.00 8 0.00 9 0.26

10 0.00

1. For data table and map 1, what is the probability that it will rain the next day?

Hint: the formula to calculate the probability

100×daysofnumbertotalrainedit daysofnumber= .

4/10 x 100 = 40% 3. What is your forecasted probability for rain

tomorrow given data table and map 1? 40%

2. For data table and map 1, what is the probability that it will not rain the next day?

Hint: the formula to calculate the probability

100×daysofnumbertotal

rainednot didit daysofnumber= .

6/10 x 100 = 60% or 100 –40 = 60%

Hint: your probabilities for rain plus no rain

must sum to 100. 4. What is your forecasted probability that it

will not rain tomorrow given data table and map 1?

60%

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Data Table 2 Map 2 High pressure over the central Rockies

Observation Rain 1 0.00 2 0.00

3 0.00

4 0.26 5 0.00 6 0.00 7 0.00 8 0.00 9 0.00

10 0.00

5. For data table and map 2, what is the

probability that it will rain the next day?

Hint: the formula to calculate the probability 100×

daysofnumbertotalrainedit daysofnumber= .

1/10 x100 = 10% 6. What is your forecasted probability for rain

tomorrow given data table and map 2? 10% 7. For data table and map 2, what is the

probability that it will not rain the next day?

Hint: the formula to calculate the probability 100×

daysofnumbertotalrainednot didit daysofnumber= .

9/10 x 100 = 90% or 100- 10 = 90 Hint your probabilities for rain plus no rain must sum to 100.

8. What is your forecasted probability that it will not rain tomorrow given data table and map 2?

90% 9. Look at the maps and your calculated

probabilities of rain. Which map and data has the highest probability of rain (circle your answer)?

Map 1 Map 2 Answer Map 1 10. Use your knowledge of weather and your

Weatherman’s Backpack to explain why the map you circled in question 5 has a higher probability than the other map.

Map 1 has cold front approaching and most weather changes occur at the boundaries of fronts. Map 2 has a high pressure, which usually means nice weather.

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Assessment Three – Making a Long-Range Forecast Objective The students will weather forecast for a period far into the future based on historical weather data.

Materials A copy of the assessment

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Making a Long-Range Forecast Directions If the forecast is for approximately 7-14 days into the future, current weather maps provide little information for meteorologists to develop forecasts. This is because of the uncertainty in the ocean and atmosphere system. The use of historical weather data for a particular day is the

best way to create long-range weather forecasts. Using the following temperature and rainfall data for November 15 and March 15, answer the following questions. In answering the questions, you will create long-range forecasts. Use the data table to answer question 1. Use the data summary table to answer questions 2-10.

Historical Weather Data for Waco, TX November 15 March 15

Year

Maximum Temperature

Rainfall

Maximum Temperature

Rainfall

1984 80 0.00 76 0.03 1985 72 0.25 59 0.00 1986 74 0.00 75 0.05 1987 73 1.41 75 0.00 1988 87 0.01 66 0.00 1989 72 0.00 68 0.00 1990 77 0.00 71 0.00 1991 78 0.01 48 0.31 1992 73 0.00 83 0.00 1993 61 0.00 59 0.25 1994 58 1.05 76 0.00 1995 79 0.00 63 0.31 1996 70 0.18 75 0.00 1997 47 0.21 51 0.00 1998 59 0.00 64 0.15 1999 84 0.00 63 0.00 2000 54 0.05 73 0.00 2001 66 2.12 68 0.00 2002 66 0.00 73 0.00 2003 73 0.04 77 0.00

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1. Fill in the following data summary table by counting the number of days in the Waco data table that meet the statement. The first blank is filled in for you as an example.

Data Summary Table for Waco Texas. November 15 March 15 Number of days the maximum temperature was greater than 65 15 13 Number of days with no rainfall 10 14 Number of days the maximum temperature was greater than 65 and there was no rainfall – be sure the day meets both criteria

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Total number (observations) 20 20 2. For November 15, what is the probability

that maximum temperature is higher than 65 degrees Fahrenheit? Hint: the formula to calculate the probability

100×daysofnumbertotal

65thangreaterwasetemperaturdaysofnumber=

15/20 x 100 = 75% 3. What is your forecasted probability for

temperature greater than 65 degrees on November 15?

75% 4. For March 15, what is the probability that

maximum temperature is higher than 65 degrees Fahrenheit? Hint: the formula to calculate the probability

100×daysofnumbertotal

65thangreaterwasetemperaturdaysofnumber=

. 13/20 x 100=65% 5. What is your forecasted probability for

temperature greater than 65 degrees on March 15?

65%

6. For November 15, what is the probability that it will not rain? Hint: the formula to calculate the probability

100×daysofnumbertotal

rainfallwithout daysofnumber= .

10/20 x 100 = 50% 7. What is your forecasted probability for no

rain on November 15? 50% 8. For March 15, what is the probability that it

will not rain? Hint: the formula to calculate the probability

100×daysofnumbertotal

rainfallwithout daysofnumber= .

14/20 x 100 = 70% 9. What is your forecasted probability for no

rain on November 15? 70%

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10. For November 15, what is the probability that temperature is greater than 65 degrees and it does not rain? Hint: the formula to calculate the probability

100×daysofnumbertotal

rain noand65>etemperaturdaysofnumber=

8/20 x 100 = 40% 11. What is your forecasts probability of

temperature greater than 65 degrees and it does not rain for November 15?

40%

12. For March 15, what is the probability that temperature is greater than 65 degrees and it does not rain? Hint: the formula to calculate the probability

100×daysofnumbertotal

rain noand65>etemperaturdaysofnumber=

. 11/20 x 100 = 55% 13. What is your forecasts probability of

temperature greater than 65 degrees and it does not rain for November 15?

55% 13. Provide a reason for the difference in the

short-range and long-range forecasting procedure. Hint: think about the first section.

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Assessment Four – Probabilistic Decision Making Teacher Talk To simplify grading, provide the students with the correct forecasts from Assessments Two and Three before students complete this assessment. Objective Students apply their decision-making knowledge and skills by using their short and long-range weather forecasts to make two decisions.

Materials A copy of the assessment. Forecasts from Assessments Two and Three. Necessary Forecasts for Assessments Two and Three Forecasts necessary to complete Assessment Four are given in the following table. Giving this table to students as noted earlier will simplify the grading process. It is suggested Assessments Two and Three are collected before this table is given to students. Another objection is to put the table on a transparency.

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Probabilistic Decision Making –Long-Range Forecasts Directions Read the problem statement and use your long-range forecasts to answer the following questions. Problem Statment Today’s date is August 25 and you must get the date for your fieldtrip to the zoo on the school calendar. The school has given you the choice of November 15 or March 15 to have your zoo fieldtrip. Past experience suggests the students have the most fun at the zoo if the maximum temperature exceeds 65 degrees Fahrenheit and it does not rain. 1. Which date November 15 or March 15 has

the highest probability of maximum temperature exceeding 65 degrees Fahrenheit? (Circle your answer)

November 15 March 15 Answer November 15 2. Considering only temperature, which date

do you pick to hold the zoo fieldtrip? (Circle your answer)

November 15 March 15 Answer November 15 3. Which date November 15 or March 15 has

the highest probability of no rainfall? (Circle your answer)

November 15 March 15 March 15

4. Considering only rainfall, which date do you pick to hold P? (Circle your answer)

November 15 March 15 Answer March 15 5. Which date November 15 or March 15 has

the highest probability of maximum temperature exceeding 65 degrees Fahrenheit and no rainfall? (Circle your answer)

November 15 March 15 Answer March 15 6. Considering both temperature and rainfall,

which date do you pick to hold the zoo fieldtrip? (Circle your answer)

November 15 March 15 Answer March 15 Congratulations, you have just learned another way of using probabilities to make decisions. That is, you choose the decision that either minimizes or maximizes the probability of an event occurring. Another example would be getting a newly developed vaccine for a disease. There is some risk associated with all vaccines and there are obvious risks associated with getting sick with the disease. Your decision is to get the new vaccine or not. Your goal would be to minimize the risk of getting sick. You would choose the decision that minimized the probability of getting sick.

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Probabilistic Decision Making –One-Day Ahead Forecasts Directions Read the problem statement. Use your knowledge of decision-trees, probabilities, expected values, and your one-day ahead forecasts to answer the following questions. Problem Statement It is now one day before the zoo fieldtrip. You now need to make a decision on if you should buy a shelter pass or wait and buy the pass at the zoo. A shelter pass allows you to eat under a cover. If it is raining, you want to eat under the shelter. If it is not raining, you will not need the shelter. If you buy the pass today, it costs $1 per person. Regardless of whether it rains or not, the pass cost is nonrefundable. The cost of the pass is $2 per person if you wait until you are at

the zoo. You will only buy a pass at the zoo if it is raining. Summary of the Decision – Cost of the Shelter Pass per Person Weather Conditions at the Zoo Date Pass Bought

Raining Not Raining

Early 1 1 At zoo 2 0 1. Using your one-day ahead forecasts from

data table and map 1, develop the decision tree for this shelter pass problem, assuming your objective is to minimize the cost of buying the pass. Hints: the probabilities are from your forecasts, the outcomes are the costs, and the decision is to buy the pass today or wait until you are at the zoo.

40% Rain

Shelter Pass De

Decision e

1

_____4.__100

14.=

x

E(V) = _.4___ + _.6___ = 1

Goal: _____Smallest expected

Buy early

E(V) = __.8__+ __0_ = .8

Buy at Zoo

cision Tree Using Forecast from Map 1

Chance of Rain Outcom

40% Rain

60% No Rain

60% No Rain

cost_____________________________

1

____6.___16.=

x

100

2

24. x

_____8.__100

=

0

06. x

__________

___0____100

=

2. Calculate the expected value for the decision to buy the pass early using the following equations. Hint: the equations are very similar to those used earlier, only changed to fit the problem.

Expected cost of buying the pass early if it rains

is

____100

=100

pass theofcost ______xrain of chance ______%=

Expected cost of buying the pass early if no rain

____100

=100

pass theofcost ______xrain no of chance ______%=

Total expected cost = expected if rains +

expected if no rain _____ + ______ = _____ .4 x 1 + .6 x 1 = $1 3. Why is the expected value the same as the

cost of buying the pass early? Cost is nonrefundable and is not a function

of rain or no rain. 4. Calculate the expected value for the decision

to buy the pass at the zoo using the following equations.

Expected Cost of buying the pass at the zoo if it

rains is

____100

=100

pass theofcost ______xrain of chance ______%=

Expected Cost of buying the pass at the zoo if no rain

____100

=100

pass theofcost ______xrain no of chance ______%=

Total expected cost = expected if rains +

expected if no rain _____ + ______ = _____ .4 x 2 + .6 x 0 = $0.20 5. Why is the expected value different than the

actual cost of buying the pass at the zoo?

Decision is now a function of rain. If it does not rain the cost is zero. If it rains the cost is $2.

6. Given your objective to minimize expected

costs of the shelter pass, which decision do you make, buy the pass early or wait and buy the pass at the zoo?

Wait to buy the pass. Student answer will depend on the forecasts use. Answers based on data table 1. If forecast is for greater than a 50% chance of rain, best decision is to buy early. If forecast is for less than 50% chance of rain, best decision is to wait. If forecast is for 50% chance of rain, you are indifferent between the two decisions.

7. Given the low cost of buying the shelter pass

early, remember it only costs $1 per person, why is this an important problem for your school zoo fieldtrip? Hint: how many people would go on such a fieldtrip?

Although low cost per person, the total cost is high when multiplied by the number of people who would go on such a fieldtrip.

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8. Fill in the following table for the forecast data table and map 1 forecast of rain information in questions 1 -7, using the letters given for the answers. One box is completed for you. a) Poor decision – expected value did not support making this decision, weather outcome resulted no need for the pass.

b) Good decision – expected value supported making this decision, weather outcome resulted no need for the pass. c) Poor decision – expected value did not support making this decision, however weather outcome resulted in a need for the pass. d) Good decision – expected value supported making this decision, weather outcome resulted in a need for the pass.

Decision Made before Weather Outcome is Realized with a 40%

chance of Rain Weather Outcome Buy Pass Early Buy Pass at Zoo Rain c d Sunshine a b