Print Market Outlook 2012

04/13/23Marketing Outlook

Print Market Outlook

Where the Business Is – and Isn’t

The Trend Isn’t Pretty • Commercial Printing Volume US & Canada

– 2003 $ 92.5 Billion– 2004 $ 93.5+ 1.0%– 2005 $ 96.9+ 3.6%– 2006 $ 99.8+ 2.9%– 2007 $103.0 + 3.2%– 2008 $ 98.6 - 4.5%– 2009 $ 83.9- 15.0%– 2010 $ 84.0+ .2%– 2011 $ 83.7- .4%– 2012 $ 82.2- 1.8%Source: 2012 WhatTheyThink Economics & Research


Causes


• Great Recession– Accelerated

Adoption of Digital Media

• Mobile Tech Advancements– Ereaders– Smartphones– Tablets

Effects on the Industry

• 21.5% volume loss since 2008

• More industry consolidation

• Severe hits on some markets


2012 Ad Spend Projections

• Overall– $169.48 B (+6.7%)

• TV– $64.8 B (+6.8%)

• Print (excludes direct mail)– 33.8 B (-6.0%)

• Online– $39.5 B (+23%)


2012 Projections (Cont.)• Radio

– $16.7 B (+3.6%)

• Directories– $7.5 B (-8.5%)

• Outdoor– $6.8 B (+6.3%)

Source: eMarketer Digital Intelligence


Tablets—The Elephant in the Room• Optimized for

content consumption– Hi res displays– Connect anywhere– Long battery life

• 54% of users read books, magazines & newspapers on tablets vs. 27% of PC users.


DIGITAL PENETRATIONMajor Markets


Books • 3%—eBooks’ share of worldwide book sales in

2011– Adult hardcover & mass market paperbacks

taking hardest hit• 12.7%—Projected share of worldwide sales in

2015• $8.6 billion—Projected value of North

America’s eBook sales in 2015– 21.4 percent all book sales

Source: Business Wire


Magazines • 64%—Publishers who think they are failing to

reach enough digital readers despite offering digital editions

• 15%—Accepted principle for penetration rate that interests advertisers

• 12%—Publishers who say they have a firm grip on digital revenue generation

• Trying to determine what mobile, tablets and eReaders do best

Source: Ntxbook Media, 2011 State of the Digital Edition survey


Catalogs

• No hard statistics available • Observation says they are growing

significantly • Except for a few online pure plays, almost

no one is willing to completely trade paper for pixels– Digital can contribute to fewer events, fewer

pages and slower growth


PRINT MARKETSMagazines


Magazines Struggle to Find a Profitable Model• $15.34 B print ad

revenue (+0.5%)• $3.3 B digital

revenue (+19.3%)• Q311 title growth

– 200 consumer launches– 128 closures– 56 b-to-b launches– 34 closures Source: Mediafinder


Magazines (Cont.)

• Q112 launches – 192 (Mr. Magazine)

• Other print growth sectors– Indie magazines– Custom magazines


PRINT MARKETSBooks


Print Books Grow, Too

• Non-traditional titles take the lead with 169% gain– Public domain reprints– Self-publishers– Micro-niche titles

• Continues to support “long-tail” theory


PRINT MARKETSCatalogs & Direct Mail


Catalogs Move in Right Direction • Computers &

electronic components hot

• Consumer catalogers took hardest hit – Apparel & gifts

• Multiple titles a trend– 25 of MCM top 100 own

160 catalogs in total


Direct Mail Continues to Grow• 2%—Growth in 2011

to $45.8 B• 2.5%—Projected

growth in 2012 $46.9 B

• 12%—Total ad spend devoted to direct mail has remained consistent over past 20 years


Why Direct Mail? • Fits better than

ever into growing target marketing and multichannel concepts

• Traditional print media losing share

• Emerging social media unproven as sales vehicle



Improve Your Customer Aim


Aim First at Existing Customers Incremental Growth• They already know and trust you• PLUS, new customer acquisition can be 6-

10 times more expensive than retaining customers– What’s your plan for existing clients?


But You Need to Do Your Customer Homework

• Aiming at the wrong customers is an expensive waste of time

• You need to make fact-based decisions


Start By Dividing Your Customers Into Three Tiers• Bottom feeders

– Those who primarily buy on price– Tend to shop services with little or no loyalty

• Partnership tendencies– Tend to favor you– Interested in multiple services

• Full partnership– Complex needs– Interested in solutions – Understand total costs as opposed to price per m– Want to work with fewer, but better vendors


How Well Do You Know Your Best Customers’:

• Competitors? • Market share?• Industry growth trends?• Hot & struggling products?• Distribution channels?• Factors affecting markets?• Stock performance?


Aim High

• More high-level people are involved in major print-related decisions

• Don’t get stuck at the production procurement level


Aim Beyond Print

• Print may be the least of your customer's marketing issues

• May be grappling with:– Obsolescence costs– Speed-to-market issues– Content management– Marketing ROI

measurement


Offer New Services• Database intelligence

– Segmentation, product propensity, etc.• Digital storefront• Multichannel delivery

– Print– Digital editions– Apps – Email– pURLs– Mobile barcodes

.


Thank You

May you experience nothing but growth.

Larry BauerBauer Associates

[email protected]

bauerassociates.net

Print Market Outlook 2012

Business

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