PRIME GLOBAL CITIES INDEX - Knight Frank...2016 Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 Prime...

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Guangzhou has retained the number one spot, which it has held throughout 2017, although its pace of growth has slowed to 27.4% from 36.3% last quarter. European cities have been rising through the rankings and now occupy four of the top ten spots, more than any other world region, with Asia now occupying only three. Frankfurt, Paris and Madrid all registered double-digit annual price growth in 2017. Cape Town sits in second place behind Guangzhou. Here, luxury residential prices ended the year nearly 20% higher as supply constraints, along with rising demand from other parts of South Africa, boosted price growth. Prices in prime central London dipped 0.7% in 2017 on an annual basis; this represents the most modest rate of decline recorded since June 2016. The introduction of a foreign buyer tax rate across parts of both Toronto and Vancouver explains their slower rates of price inflation. Annual growth stood at 8.4% and 3.5% respectively at the end of 2017, down from 15.1% and 14.5% a year earlier. In the US, an improving economy, along with rising foreign interest in some cities (despite the strength of the dollar), is supporting luxury residential prices. The four US cities tracked by our index averaged 4.2% growth in 2017, up from 2.5% in 2016. Seven cities tracked by our index registered an improvement in their annual growth over all four quarters in 2017; Cape Town, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Edinburgh, London, Paris and Los Angeles (figure 3). Analysis over a five-year period, underlines Australasia’s strong performance. Sydney and Melbourne averaged growth of 54.9% over this period with North American and Middle Eastern cities following closely behind averaging 44.7% and 41.6% respectively (figure 4). Despite the uncertain political landscape in 2017, a brighter economic scenario helped push luxury prices higher. However, with fiscal stimulus being withdrawn and interest rates set to rise across several key markets we expect the index’s rate of growth to moderate in 2018. Results for Q4 2017 Guangzhou (27.4%) leads the annual rankings despite the wider slowdown across China’s other first tier cities European cities account for four of the top ten annual rankings with Frankfurt (12.9%) out in front Prime prices in London registered their most modest rate of annual decline since June 2016 The four US cities tracked by our index averaged 4.2% growth in 2017, up from 2.5% in 2016 Analysis over a five-year period shows Australasia is the strongest- performing world region averaging 54.9% since Q4 2012 KATE EVERETT-ALLEN International Residential Research “European cities have been rising through the rankings and now occupy four of the top ten spots, outperforming all other world regions.” Follow Kate at @keverettkf For the latest news, views and analysis on the world of prime property, visit our blog or follow @KFIntelligence EUROPEAN CITIES BOOSTED PRIME RESIDENTIAL INDEX IN 2017 Our Prime Global Cities Index now tracks the movement of luxury residential property prices across 42 cities with the addition this quarter of Frankfurt. Overall, the index climbed 4.7% in the year to December 2017. RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH PRIME GLOBAL CITIES INDEX FIGURE 1 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2013 Q3 2013 Q2 2013 Q1 2014 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q1 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4* 2016 Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 Prime Global Cities Index Q4 2017 Annual performance over the last five years 12-month % change Source: Knight Frank Research, *Provisional

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Page 1: PRIME GLOBAL CITIES INDEX - Knight Frank...2016 Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 Prime Global Cities Index Q4 2017 Annual performance over the last five years 12-month %

Guangzhou has retained the number one spot, which it has held throughout 2017, although its pace of growth has slowed to 27.4% from 36.3% last quarter.

European cities have been rising through the rankings and now occupy four of the top ten spots, more than any other world region, with Asia now occupying only three. Frankfurt, Paris and Madrid all registered double-digit annual price growth in 2017.

Cape Town sits in second place behind Guangzhou. Here, luxury residential prices ended the year nearly 20% higher as supply constraints, along with rising demand from other parts of South Africa, boosted price growth.

Prices in prime central London dipped 0.7% in 2017 on an annual basis; this represents the most modest rate of decline recorded since June 2016.

The introduction of a foreign buyer tax rate across parts of both Toronto and Vancouver explains their slower rates of price inflation. Annual growth stood at 8.4% and 3.5% respectively at the end of 2017, down from 15.1% and 14.5% a year earlier.

In the US, an improving economy, along with rising foreign interest in some cities (despite the strength of the dollar), is supporting luxury residential prices. The four US cities tracked by our index averaged 4.2% growth in 2017, up from 2.5% in 2016.

Seven cities tracked by our index registered an improvement in their annual growth over all four quarters in 2017; Cape Town, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Edinburgh, London, Paris and Los Angeles (figure 3).

Analysis over a five-year period, underlines Australasia’s strong performance. Sydney and Melbourne averaged growth of 54.9% over this period with North American and Middle Eastern cities following closely behind averaging 44.7% and 41.6% respectively (figure 4).

Despite the uncertain political landscape in 2017, a brighter economic scenario helped push luxury prices higher. However, with fiscal stimulus being withdrawn and interest rates set to rise across several key markets we expect the index’s rate of growth to moderate in 2018.

Results for Q4 2017Guangzhou (27.4%) leads the annual rankings despite the wider slowdown across China’s other first tier cities

European cities account for four of the top ten annual rankings with Frankfurt (12.9%) out in front

Prime prices in London registered their most modest rate of annual decline since June 2016

The four US cities tracked by our index averaged 4.2% growth in 2017, up from 2.5% in 2016

Analysis over a five-year period shows Australasia is the strongest-performing world region averaging 54.9% since Q4 2012

KATE EVERETT-ALLEN International Residential Research

“ European cities have been rising through the rankings and now occupy four of the top ten spots, outperforming all other world regions.”

Follow Kate at @keverettkf

For the latest news, views and analysis on the world of prime property, visit our blog or follow @KFIntelligence

EUROPEAN CITIES BOOSTED PRIME RESIDENTIAL INDEX IN 2017 Our Prime Global Cities Index now tracks the movement of luxury residential property prices across 42 cities with the addition this quarter of Frankfurt. Overall, the index climbed 4.7% in the year to December 2017.

RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH

PRIME GLOBAL CITIES INDEX

FIGURE 1

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Prime Global Cities Index Q4 2017 Annual performance over the last five years 12-month % change

Source: Knight Frank Research, *Provisional

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ViennaParis

Hong Kong

Tokyo

Seoul

Sydney

Jakarta

Tel Aviv

Cape Town

MadridZurich

Guangzhou

New York

Miami

Edinburgh

VancouverToronto

Los Angeles

San Francisco Beijing

Shanghai

Melbourne

Taipei

London

Frankfurt

Dublin

Bangkok

Mumbai

Monaco

Rome

Istanbul

Milan

SingaporeNairobi

Kuala Lumpur

Bengaluru

MoscowSt. Petersburg

Berlin

Stockholm

Geneva

Delhi

KEYAnnual prime price growth to Q4 2017*

GUANGZHOU 36.2% BEIJING 22.9% TORONTO 22.2% SHANGHAI 19.8% SEOUL 17.6% STOCKHOLM 10.7% SYDNEY 10.7% MELBOURNE 8.6% BERLIN 8.7% VANCOUVER 7.9% TEL AVIV 7.7% CAPE TOWN 7.7% HONG KONG 5.3% MIAMI¹�³ 4.1% SINGAPORE 4.0% DUBLIN 3.7% EDINBURGH 3.0% MADRID 3.0% PARIS 2.6% LOS ANGELES¹�³ 2.5% SAN FRANCISCO¹�³ 1.8% NEW YORK¹�³ 1.7% TOKYO² 1.5% MUMBAI 1.1% MONACO 1.0% BANGKOK 0.3% JAKARTA 0.3% ROME 0.0% BENGALURU -0.2% MILAN -0.9% KUALA LUMPUR -1.9% GENEVA -2.0% VIENNA -2.0% ST. PETERSBURG -2.1% DELHI -2.6% NAIROBI -2.7% TAIPEI -6.3% LONDON -6.4% ZURICH -7.0% MOSCOW -7.3% ISTANBUL -8.3%20%+

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FIGURE 2

Prime Global Cities IndexTracking prime residential prices across 42 cities

PRIME GLOBAL CITIES INDEX Q4 2017

FIGURE 3

The improvers Seven cities that saw annual price growth increase each quarter in 2017 (annual % change)

FIGURE 4

Taking the long view - Australia on top Five-year % change Q4 2012-Q4 2017

Source: All data comes from Knight Frank’s global network with the exception of Tokyo (Ken Corporation); Los Angeles, Miami, New York and San Francisco (S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller); Tel Aviv (Israel Central Bureau of Statistics); Berlin and Frankfurt (Immobilienscout 24); Stockholm (Svensk Maklarstatistik); Toronto (Real Estate Board of Toronto); Vancouver (Vancouver Real Estate Board). Notes: Price change calculated in local currency. Data for Tel Aviv and US cities is to Q3 2017. Data for Moscow is provisional.

Source: Knight Frank Research, S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller, Ken Corporation Source: Knight Frank Research, S&P Case Shiller, Ken Corporation

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Australasia 10.7%Africa 7.2%Asia 5.3%North America 4.6%Europe 2.8%Middle East -2.5%Russia & CIS -8.4%

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MIDDLEEAST RUSSIA & CIS

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RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH

Liam Bailey Global Head of Research +44 20 7861 5133 [email protected]

Kate Everett-AllenInternational Residential Research +44 207 167 2497 [email protected]

PRESS OFFICE Astrid Recaldin+44 20 7861 1182 [email protected]

PRIME GLOBAL CITIES INDEX Q4 2017

DATA DIGEST

RECENT MARKET-LEADING RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS

The Knight Frank Prime Global Cities Index enables investors and developers to monitor and compare the performance of prime residential prices across key global cities. Prime property corresponds to the top 5% of the housing market in each city, unless otherwise indicated. The index is compiled on a quarterly basis using data from Knight Frank’s network of global offices and research teams.

Important Notice

© Knight Frank LLP 2018 – This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, views and projections presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Knight Frank LLP for any loss or damage resultant from any use of, reliance on or reference to the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not necessarily represent the view of Knight Frank LLP in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is not allowed without prior written approval of Knight Frank LLP to the form and content within which it appears. Knight Frank LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England with registered number OC305934. Our registered office is 55 Baker Street, London, W1U 8AN, where you may look at a list of members’ names.

RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH

KENYA INSIGHT 2018 ASSESSING KEY TRENDS ACROSS KENYA’S PRIME RESIDENTIAL MARKETS

PRICE PERFORMANCE NEW INVESTMENT MARKET OUTLOOK

Kenya Insight - 2018

Knight Frank Research Reports are available at KnightFrank.com/Research

Chinese Developers in Australia - Market Insight 2018

RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH

Key Facts Chinese developers and investors purchased $2.02 billion worth of Australian residential development sites in 2017; equivalent to one-third of total site sales.

Residential development sites purchased by Chinese developers and investors, had an average area of 21,785 sq m in 2017.

In 2017, of all Australian development sites purchased by Chinese developers and investors, 29% were suited to low density, up from 2% in 2013.

Knight Frank Residential Research Follow Michelle at @MCiesielski_AU

Chinese developers have continued to dominate foreign investment in residential development sites across Australia. Many are now well-established in the local market. Almost one-third of total residential site sales were sold to Chinese developers and investors throughout 2017, equivalent to $2.02 billion in transactions. As shown in Figure 1, this share of sales to Chinese buyers has tripled since 2013, but decreased from the 38% recorded in 2016. Sustained developer interest in the Australian market has come in spite of government efforts in both Australia and China to tighten credit conditions as they relate to residential investment and development. In Australia, the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA) has encouraged local financial institutions to impose stricter controls, while in China the government has attempted to moderate capital outflow with China’s Central Bank imposing new rules for companies which make yuan-denominated loans to overseas entities, including establishing a register

Australian Residential Development Sites Purchased by Chinese Developers and Investors % portion of disclosed total sales, by value

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CHINA LOCAL & OTHER COUNTRIES

New Frontiers: The 2018 Report

1 NEW FRONTIERS

NEWFRONTIERS

PROSPECTS FOR REAL ESTATE ALONG THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE

1ST EDITIONTHE 2018 REPORT

201812th Edition

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EA

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2018

The global perspective on prime property and investment

The Wealth Report - 2018

Knight Frank Prime Global Cities Index, Q4 2017 Ranked by annual % change

Rank City 12-month % change

(Dec 16- Dec 17)

6-month % change

(Jun 17-Dec 17)

3-month % change

(Sep 17-Dec 17)

Market direction*

1 Guangzhou 27.4% 7.0% 0.2%2 Cape Town 19.9% 12.6% 7.1%3 Seoul 13.2% 7.2% 7.0%4 Frankfurt **New** 12.9% 2.7% 2.3%5 Paris 12.0% 4.2% 1.1%6 Sydney 10.7% 2.8% 2.1%7 Madrid 10.6% 3.1% 1.0%9 Berlin 9.9% 5.8% 4.5%8 Melbourne 9.8% 4.8% 1.9%10 Shanghai 9.2% 0.4% 1.1%11 Toronto 8.4% -4.9% 1.7%12 Hong Kong 7.3% 3.3% 1.6%13 Beijing 6.7% 4.1% 1.9%14 Singapore 5.6% 3.9% 3.7%15 Edinburgh 5.4% 2.2% 1.4%16 San Francisco¹˒³ 5.4% 3.2% 0.0%17 Los Angeles¹˒³ 4.7% 4.1% 1.4%18 Istanbul 4.7% 3.8% 0.0%19 Bangkok 4.5% 4.0% 1.6%20 Dublin 4.3% 1.4% 0.5%21 New York¹˒³ 3.8% 3.9% 2.4%22 Vancouver 3.5% -4.9% -5.9%23 Miami¹˒³ 3.0% 2.4% 0.8%24 Tokyo² 2.0% 1.5% 2.6%25 Jakarta 1.5% 0.8% 0.4%26 Tel Aviv 1.3% 0.5% -2.4%27 Mumbai 0.6% 0.6% -0.1%28 Monaco 0.5% -1.4% -1.4%29 Milan 0.4% 0.3% 0.0%30 Rome 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%31 Zurich -0.3% -1.9% -2.1%32 Vienna -0.3% -0.2% 0.2%33 London -0.7% -0.4% -0.1%34 Kuala Lumpur -0.7% -0.2% -0.2%35 Geneva -0.9% -2.9% -0.5%36 Nairobi -0.9% -1.8% -1.8%37 Stockholm -1.4% -5.0% -5.4%38 Delhi -2.3% -1.5% 0.8%39 Bengaluru -2.4% -2.0% -1.5%40 Taipei -4.3% -1.0% -0.3%41 St. Petersburg -7.4% -1.7% -0.9%42 Moscow³ -11.3% -2.1% -1.6%

Source: All data comes from Knight Frank’s global network with the exception of Tokyo (Ken Corporation); Los Angeles, Miami, New York and San Francisco (S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller); Tel Aviv (Israel Central Bureau of Statistics); Berlin and Frankfurt (Immobilienscout 24); Stockholm (Svensk Maklarstatistik); Toronto (Real Estate Board of Toronto); Vancouver (Vancouver Real Estate Board).Notes: Price change calculated in local currency. Data for Tel Aviv, Los Angeles, Miami, New York and San Francisco is to Q3 2017 ¹ Based on top-tier of mainstream market in metro area. ² Based on all contracts above Yen100m 3 Provisional*Direction of annual price growth compared with previous quarter NB: Some data may differ from our PIRI 100 Index as newer data has become available.