Price Responsive Load / Retail DR DSWG Update Paul Wattles Carl Raish September 17, 2015.

Price Responsive Load / Retail DR

DSWG Update

Paul WattlesCarl Raish

September 17, 2015

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RMS topics

• 2014 analysis - status report• 2015 snapshot date review• Next steps

Price Responsive Load / Retail DR September 17, 2015

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PUC Rule

• Pursuant to PUC Subst. Rule §25.505(e) (5), “Load Serving Entities (LSEs) shall provide ERCOT with complete information on load response capabilities that are self-arranged or pursuant to bilateral agreements between LSEs and their customers”


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Pricing Events – 2014


• ERCOT identified 9 days in calendar year 2014 with pricing events• price for 4 or more consecutive intervals exceeded $200 in all four competitive load zones.

• One of the days, January 6, was an EEA day when prices were at the cap until various forms of demand response kicked in

• Three of the days were on a Sunday: March 2 and 16, September 21

• Graphs on the following slides compare actual prices on those nine days to the average price for that day-type and month

5

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89

$/M

wH

Actual $ Avg $

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89

$/M

wH

Actual $ Avg $

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89

$/M

wH

Actual $ Avg $

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89

$/M

wH

Actual $ Avg $



Jan 6 – EEA event Feb 10

Mar 2 - Sunday Mar 3

6

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89

$/M

wH

Actual $ Avg $



Mar 16 - Sunday

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89

$/M

wH

Actual $ Avg $

Apr 7

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89

$/M

wH

Actual $ Avg $

May 30

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89

$/M

wH

Actual $ Avg $

Sep 21 - Sunday

7

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89

$/M

wH

Actual $ Avg $

Pricing Events – 2014 (continued)


Nov 13

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Number of ESIIDs with 4 CP Responses – 2014

Load Factor High Medium Low Total

Response TypeReduce

HourReduce

DayNon

RespondReduce

HourReduce

DayNon

RespondReduce

HourReduce

DayNon

RespondReduce

HourReduce

DayNon

Respond4 CP Days30-Jun-14 216 7 2,377 427 93 6,529 804 295 2,400 1,447 395 11,306

21-Jul-14 113 9 2,479 355 103 6,595 743 294 2,460 1,211 406 11,534

25-Aug-14 262 12 2,328 530 106 6,416 776 297 2,432 1,568 415 11,176

10-Sep-14 268 12 2,322 528 102 6,417 621 275 2,604 1,417 389 11,343

September 17, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR

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Hour-ending 17:00 MW Reductions on 4 CP Days - 2014

All Responding 4-CP ESIIDS

Total Response

Peak Response

Day Response

Total Response

Peak Response

Day Response

Total Response

Peak Response

Day Response

Total Response

Peak Response

Day Response

30-Jun-14 159.4 138.4 21.0 241.7 165.5 76.1 242.0 173.4 68.7 643.1 477.3 165.8

21-Jul-14 37.5 30.5 7.0 112.7 66.1 46.6 149.0 87.1 62.0 299.2 183.6 115.5

25-Aug-14 199.4 164.9 34.5 252.0 174.3 77.7 263.8 187.8 76.0 715.2 526.9 188.2

10-Sep-14 204.3 164.4 39.8 273.9 183.8 90.1 301.5 207.0 94.5 779.6 555.2 224.4

8-Aug-14 125.5 117.6 7.9 219.8 165.7 54.1 278.8 221.6 57.2 624.2 504.9 119.3

Reductions for Hour Ending 17:00

High Load Factor Low Load FactorMedium Load Factor Total

4 CP Days

Near CP Day with Largest Response


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Hour-ending 17:00 Reductions on 4 CP Days - 2014

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Actual Baseline Reduce HR 17:00

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September 10, 2014


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August 25, 2014


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July 21, 2014



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200.0

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2009

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MW

Year-Mon

4-CP Day MW17 Reductions 2009 - 2014

MW17 Reduce MW17Largest Near-CP

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

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2,300

2,500

2009

-Jun

2009

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2009

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2009

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2010

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2014

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2014

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2014

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ESIID

s

Year-Mon

ESIIDs with 4-CP Reductions 2009 - 2014

ESIIDs Respond

Hour Ending 17:00 Response on 4 CP Days 2009 - 2014

2009-Jun 2009-Jul 2009-Aug 2009-Sep 2010-Jun 2010-Jul 2010-Aug 2010-Sep 2011-Jun 2011-Jul 2011-Aug 2011-SepMW-17 516.4 385.1 544.0 452.6 332.3 448.5 459.5 471.5 624.7 566.8 715.5 633.5

Largest Near CP17 389.6 336.7 392.8 388.6 444.8 533.5 556.4 442.1 550.8 620.7 643.7 547.6 MW-CP-Int 524.3 428.1 408.1 398.5 591.1 564.5 634.2 553.3 672.5 583.4 495.3 527.6

ESIIDs 1,988 1,504 1,575 1,396 1,427 1,724 1,743 1,349 1,827 1,977 2,480 1,737

2012-Jun 2012-Jul 2012-Aug 2012-Sep 2013-Jun 2013-Jul 2013-Aug 2013-Sep 2014-Jun 2014-Jul 2014-Aug 2014-SepMW-17 726.1 594.0 505.6 643.7 578.1 593.4 585.1 468.9 643.1 299.2 715.2 779.6

Largest Near CP17 649.4 667.1 513.1 697.8 535.5 399.1 582.8 482.1 311.0 540.0 439.9 534.0 MW-CP-Int 672.5 583.4 495.3 527.6 545.9 589.0 566.0 425.8 211.2 258.7 633.1 750.6

ESIIDs 2,413 2,112 2,031 1,770 1,819 1,495 1,751 1,761 1,842 1,617 1,983 1,806


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2014 OLC Analysis


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base actual reduce

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May Composite Day

Early Oct Composite Day Mid October Composite Day

• 5 Reps reported OLC programs in 2014• ~19,200 Res and 64 Bus customers• 3 Reps reported 7 deployments in 2014

affecting 3,200 Res and 5 Bus customers• 4 events (3 in Aug, 1 in Oct) showed no

evidence of any load reduction• May and October days combined into

composite graphs to approximate the total OLC load reduction that could occur with same-day deployment

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2014 PR Analysis


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August Composite Day

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September Composite Day

• 6 Reps reported PR programs in 2014• ~ 410,700 Res and 30,200 Bus customers

• With DLC: Res 4,400 Bus 4• 4 Reps reported 9 deployments in 2014 affecting 32,100 Res and 143 Bus customers

• With DLC: Res 4,400 Bus 4• 3 events (1 in Sep, 2 in Oct) showed no evidence of any load reduction• 6 events showed obvious reductions ranging from 27 – 40 MW• August and September days are combined into composite graphs to approximate the

total PR load reduction that could occur with same-day deployment

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2014 RTP Analysis


• 11 Reps reported RTP programs in 2014

• ~ 1,000 Res and 9,700 Bus customers• None with DLC

• 2 pricing events days (Jan 6 and Mar 3) with evidence of load reduction– Jan 6: ~4,500 customers ~12.9 MW of load reduction (~8.8 MW from BUSIDRRQ)– Mar 3 ~5,000 customers ~7.4 MW load reduction (~4.4 MW from BUSIDRRQ)

• Note: EEA related Load reduction led to price drop, and RTP related load reduction mostly occurred following the price drop

Jan 6, 2014 – EEA Day Mar 3, 2014

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2014 BI Analysis


• 16 Reps reported BI programs in 2014

• ~ 6,800 Bus customers• None with DLC

• 2 pricing events days (Jan 6 and Mar 3) with evidence of load reduction– Jan 6: ~5,400 customers ~507.9 MW of load reduction (~330.4 MW from BUSIDRRQ)– Mar 3 ~5,700 customers ~229.3 MW load reduction (~43.6 MW from BUSIDRRQ)

• Note: EEA related Load reduction led to price drop, and BI related load reduction during high price intervals did occur prior to the price drop

– Jan 6: 455 MW in interval 30 when price was $2,800– Mar 3: 179 MW in interval 28 when price was $4,990

Jan 6, 2014 – EEA Day Mar 3, 2014

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Updated Categories pg. 1 of 3

Demand Response category (improved) definitions:RTP – Real Time Pricing - retail prices for all hours or intervals based on ERCOT Real-Time Settlement Point Prices for the premise Load Zone, calculated every 15 minutes, or other real-time wholesale price indicator(s).

BI – Block & Index – fixed pricing for a defined volume of usage, coupled with pricing indexed to the wholesale market for usage exceeding the block. Block prices and volumes may vary by time of day/week. (removed last line from definition - Option could include if usage dips below the block.)

PR – Peak Rebates – a retail offering in which the customer is eligible for a financial incentive paid for load reductions taken during periods of time identified by the LSE, and communicated to the customer during the prior day or the event day, or both. LSE has defined a method to identify whether a customer has responded and to quantify the response amount. Payment (rebate) to customer is based upon customer’s response.• Peak Rebate examples - • No DLC: The REP sends an email one day prior if high prices are forecasted, and sends a reminder text/tweet the

morning of the following day. The REP identifies responding customers using a recent similar weather day as a baseline to estimate what the customer’s load would have been. If the customer’s actual load during the predicted intervals was lower than the baseline, the REP agrees to pay the customer $100 / kw of reduction.

• DLC: REP sends email one day prior if high prices are forecasted, and sends a reminder text/tweet the morning of the following day. When high prices materialize, the REP sends a signal to the customer’s web-enabled thermostat to increase its set point by 3 degrees. The REP establishes a baseline for the customer to estimate what the customer’s load would have been. If the customer’s actual load during the predicted intervals was lower than the baseline, the REP agrees to pay the customer $100 / kw of reduction.


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Demand Response category definitions:CPP – Critical Peak Pricing – prices that rise during critical peaks: limited duration periods of time identified by the LSE that usually correlate to high prices in the real-time wholesale market. Critical peak events may occur a limited number of times per year and typically are communicated a day in advance. TOU – Time of Use — prices that vary across defined blocks of hours, with predefined prices and schedules. (As used here, does not apply to seasonal adjustments). TOU Example – free evening hours

OLC – Other Direct Load Control – contracts that allow the LSE or a third party to control the customer’s load remotely for economic or grid reliability purposes. This category applies to Direct Load Control (DLC) with different deployment criteria than described elsewhere. (Avoid double counting if DLC data was reported in other categories.). Customer incentive is predefined and does not vary based upon the response.• OLC Example - • OLC (always has DLC) REP identifies a day on which high prices have, or are about to, materialize. The REP

sends a signal to the customer’s web-enabled thermostat to increase its set point by 3 degrees. The REP agrees to pay the customer $10 / month for each summer month, and the customer agrees to allow the thermostat to be set higher 10 times during the summer for periods up to 2 hours long. If the customer overrides the REP thermostat setting during a month, the customer’s payment is reduced by $3.

OTH – Other Voluntary Demand Response Product – any retail product not covered in the other categories that includes a demand response incentive or signal.


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Demand Response category definitions: NOTE – will not use 4CP and FO categories for summer 2015 data collection4CP – Four Coincident Peak – predictor signals or direct load control provided to customers in advance of potential Four Coincident Peak (4CP) intervals during summer months (June through September). Reducing load during such intervals lowers transmission charges. 4CP charges apply to large customers (peak demand ≥700 kW) in competitive choice areas, and also to NOIEs at the boundary meter level.

FO – Financial Option – product where LSE purchases an option from the customer that is backed by a specified level of DR and uses it for portfolio trades in the wholesale market.

4CP - ERCOT can do the 4CP analysis without the need to ask the LSEs to provide data in the survey.

FO – category has not been used for 2 years


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Snapshot for Summer 2015

2015 Summer data collection timeline• September 30, 2015 - snapshot by REPs for which ESI IDs are in

programs• November 4, 2015 - file submission to ERCOT*• November 18, 2015 - error correction file submission to ERCOT

– * pushed file submission back by 2 weeks to allow any error handling to be completed prior to Thanksgiving Holiday

– REP should make all necessary corrections and re-send the full file to ERCOT. ERCOT will use the last file sent for data analysis.

– ERCOT will send survey monkey after receipt of ‘clean data’ or declaring ‘uncle’

• December 1, 2015 – ERCOT will send Survey Monkey links to REPs to gather REP-specific event information

• December 11, 2015 – Survey Monkey responses due


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Next Steps – for future

Still for future discussion• Future years (starting 2016?)

– Evaluate 4 submissions for Summer 2016 (June, July, Aug, Sept)

– Ask REPs to evaluate winter programs for future consideration• Please review categories to see if definitions fit or if new categories

would need to be added• Consider possible dates and/or frequency of a winter file submission

• Protocol Revision and/or Market Guide Revision?• Review categories each year to see if adjustments need to be

made• Review reporting of events via Survey Monkey to see if there is

a better method to leverage


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Take Aways

• REPs – Prepare to take the snapshot for Sept 30th

– Log self-initiated events in preparation for the survey– Map product types to the categories in the guide– If unsure which category to use – please ask

• Carl Raish ([email protected]) • Paul Wattles ([email protected]) • Karen Farley ([email protected])

• ERCOT– ERCOT will continue work on TOU analysis for future report to

market.


mailto:[email protected]



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Price Responsive Load / Retail DR DSWG Update Paul Wattles Carl Raish September 17, 2015.

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