Previewing Turkey’s General Election

8/9/2019 Previewing Turkey’s General Election

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1 Center for American Progress | Previewing Turkey’s General Election

Previewing Turkey’s General Election

By Michael Werz, Max Hoffman, and Mark Bhaskar June 2, 2015

urkey will hold a crucial general elecion on June 7. Te Jusice and Developmen

Pary, or AKP, aces he firs real hrea o is single-pary conrol over he Grand

Naional Assembly in is 13 years ruling he counry. For he firs ime since he

Republic o urkey’s ormaion, a Kurdish poliical pary could ener parliamen in

orce. Tis could seriously complicae he AKP’s pah o a parliamenary majoriy bumigh also bring hope or a final resoluion o urkey’s long sruggle o peaceully

inegrae is Kurdish minoriy. Te voe is also likely o decide i urkey will coninue o

be dominaed by Presiden Recep ayyip Erdoğan, whose personal ambiion o build

a sronger presidency and solidiy his hold on power has shaped he campaign. And

he elecion resul could see he ongoing Kurdish peace process derailed by a surge in

suppor or he ar-righ Naionalis Movemen Pary, or MHP. Addiionally, clashes

beween Kurds and sae securiy orces in he wake o he voe could derail elecion

resuls, paricularly i elecoral raud is suspeced.

Te oucome o he elecionpossibly he las unil 2019may deermine he uure ohe urkish Consiuion o 1982, he poliical saus o he Kurds in urkey, he posiion

o religion in he public square, he qualiy o urkish democracy, and Ankara’s role in he

region. A ourh successive ourigh majoriy or he AKP would bring our more years

o more conservaive and religious poliics, effors o rewrie he consiuion, a coninu-

aion o urkey’s more independen and acive oreign policy, and, possibly, a hal in he

work o secure a lasing peace wih Kurdish rebels in he counry’s souheas. While i may

bring sabiliy, an ourigh AKP win would also likely mean urher ani-Wesern rheoric

and more pressure on poliical dissen and reedom o expression a home. However, i he

AKP is orced ino a coaliion, he mos likely oucome is a pairing wih he ulranaional-

iss; his could lead o poliical insabiliy, an ambivalen line oward he Unied Saes

and Europe, deep hosiliy oward he Kurds, and possibly renewed fighing wih Kurdish

rebels. I he opposiion paries are able o record large enough gains o cobble ogeher a

governmenunlikely as ha remainsurkey’s domesic poliics and regional course

would dramaically change. Depending on he composiion o such a coaliion, his ou-

come migh bring a renewed push or EU membership, an easing o pressure on journaliss

and poliical aciviss, and a more resrained regional role. Tis brie will inroduce he key

players in his elecoral drama, ouline he consiuional and poliical sakes, and analyze

poenial elecoral oucomes and he likely allou rom each scenario.


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The parties

Justice and Development Party

Te AKP is urkey’s ruling conservaive Islamis poliical pary, which currenly

holds 312 o he 550 seas in parliamen.1 Formed in 2001 by a moderae acion ohe Islamis Virue Pary led by he likes o ormer Presiden Abdullah Gül, curren

Presiden Erdoğan, and curren Depuy Prime Miniser Bülen Arınç, he AKP enjoys

he suppor o urkey’s conservaive, religious lower and middle classes and much

o he commercial class. Is elecoral base is he rural Anaolian hearland, including

Ankara, and he Black Sea coasline; however, i is compeiive naionwide, paricularly

in souheasern urkey, where i runs a close second o he majoriy-Kurdish Peoples’

Democraic Pary, or HDP, in mos consiuencies.

Since is ounding, he AKP has been dominaed by Presiden Erdoğan, who won he

presidency wih 52 percen o he voe in Augus 2014.2

radiionally, Erdoğan’s elecionas presiden would have led him o sep back rom acive poliics; under he urkish

Consiuion, presidens are supposed o sever all connecions wih heir previous pary

and have radiionally rerained rom poliical campaigning and elecioneering.3 Erdoğan

handpicked hen-Foreign Miniser Ahme Davuoğlu as his successor as prime miniser

and head o he AKP bu has himsel remained he de aco leader o he pary, cam-

paigning vigorously on behal o he AKP.

Presiden Erdoğan’s chie goal is o reorm he urkish Consiuion o 1982, writen

under miliary rule, in order o ake urkey rom is curren parliamenary sysem o a

presidenial sysem. Erdoğan argues he change would allow more efficien governmenand sronger economic growh, bu he shif would also urher solidiy his personal

conrol o he counry by providing new powers and a consiuional oundaion or his

coninued poliical aciviies. Te AKP is heavily ied o he presidenial iniiaive due

o Erdoğan’s personal dominance o he pary, despie he unpopulariy o he proposed

changes. Bu he pary aces new poliical hreas, primarily rom a spiried Kurdish and

liberal challenge rom he HDP and anemic economic growh.

Te AKP’s primary elecion goals are o preven he enry o he mainly Kurdish HDP

ino parliamen, which would hreaen AKP’s single-pary rule, and o garner a leas 330

seas, allowing an AKP governmen o propose changes o he urkish Consiuion and

pu hem o a naional reerendum. Te AKP’s plaorm 4 ocuses on reviving urkey’s

economy, which slowed o jus 2.9 percen growh in 2014.5 According o Prime

Miniser Davuoğlu, he AKP is aiming or 50 percen o 55 percen o he voe and has

no plans o orm a coaliion governmen in he even o pary losses.6 A more realisic

goal or he AKP is probably 45 percen o he voe, based on recen polls.7 Any resul

below 40 percen would be considered a ailure or he AKP and Davuoğlu, poenially

promping a shake-up o he pary leadership.


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Republican People’s Party

Te Republican People’s Pary, or CHP, is urkey’s main opposiion pary; i is cener

lef, secular, and sronges in wesern urkey, paricularly along he Aegean coas and

in he ciies o Edirne and İzmir. Te pary’s base is composed o highly educaed and

wealhy urks, urban liberals, Alevis,8 he remnans o he old naionalis elie, and

socialiss. Led by Chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, he CHP has worked o emulae hesocial democraic paries o Europe. CHP’s goal is o win enough o he voe o creae a

minoriy coaliion governmen wih eiher he Kurdish HDP or he naionalis MHP;

or he CHP, 30 percen is an ambiious goal ha would likely provide he pary wih

pahs o a coaliion governmen, bu achieving his goal remains unlikely. However, boh

poenial coaliion parners are problemaic: HDP’s desire or auonomy or ederalism is

anahema o he CHP’s old guard, which has been weakened bu remains srong enough

o make a coaliion difficul. Meanwhile, he naionalis MHP’s base is ar o he righ

o he CHP, and is oreign policy conrass sarkly wih ha o he CHPor example,

he CHP is commited o membership in he European Union and a close relaionship

wih he Unied Saes, while he MHP opposes EU accession and is ambivalen owardhe Unied Saes.9 I should be noed, however, ha he MHP did join a coaliion

wih anoher cener-lef pary, he lae Bülen Ecevi’s Democraic Lef Pary, in 1999,

so here is hisorical preceden or such a parnership.10 Te ambiious elecion mani-

eso oulined by CHP Chairman Kılıçdaroğlu ous comprehensive economic reorm,

including raising he minimum wage o 1,500 urkish liras, or abou $575, per monh.11

Te CHP has also pledged o appoin Kemal Derviş as depuy prime miniser in charge

o he economy; Derviş is widely considered o have been he archiec o urkey’s

recovery plan ollowing is economic collapse in 2001.12

Nationalist Movement Party

Te MHP is urkey’s ar-righ pary and has a radiional, naionalis consiuency

similar o ha o he AKP, alhough i generally absains rom religion-based poliics and

rheoric. Te MHP aspires o win 20 percen o he voe and, possibly, ener a coali-

ion governmen. Tough i would be a long sho, he MHP would likely preer o orm

a minoriy coaliion governmen wih he CHP. Such a coaliion would probably sill

need suppor rom he ouside, presumably he HDP. Te MHP’s ulranaionalism and

hosiliy o any orm o Kurdish auonomy complicaes ha equaion, however, as he

pary would almos cerainly reuse o ener any coaliion including he HDP. Tis MHP

animosiy means ha despie he ac ha he MHP, CHP, and HDP share a dislike or

Erdoğan and have a chance o collecively consiue a majoriy o parliamen, such a

coaliion remains unlikely. Sill, i he AKP ails o ge a majoriy and he HDP makes

he hreshold, he MHP could be he swing pary in deermining wheher he AKP or

he CHP leads he nex governmen.


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Unlike he CHP, he MHP’s elecion manieso emphasizes issues o naional sover-

eigny and oreign policy. According o pary leader Devle Bahçeli, he MHP wans wo

separae governmens in Cyprushe Republic o Cyprus in he souh and he urkish

Republic in he norha long-erm poin o ension wih Europe and an inenional

roadblock o EU membership. Te MHP also disagrees wih he AKP’s open door policy

or Syrian reugees.13 Bahçeli said as early as 2012 ha “Incoming reugees are now up o

a poin ha urkey canno handle i anymore.”14 Te reugee siuaion has dramaically worsened since hen. Bahçeli and his pary have called or a sricer policy a he border

and, wih he CHP, argue ha some reugees should be reurned o Syria. 15 Te AKP has

also called or he repariaion o Syrian reugees bu has done so wihin he conex o

proposed sae zones inside Syria, a proposal ha he opposiion paries oppose.16

People’s Democratic Party

Te wild card in his elecion is he HDP, led by Selahatin Demiraş. Composed

primarily o Kurds mainly in souheas urkey, he pary also atracs some Alevis andurkish liberals. Te HDP hopes o increase is dominance o souheasern Anaolia

and pick up enough voes elsewhere in he naion o pass he 10 percen elecoral

hreshold or represenaion as a pary in parliamen. Te 10 percen voing hresh-

oldhe highes such benchmark in Europe and possibly he worldwas legislaed

under he miliary governmen ha ruled urkey rom 1980 o 1983 as a measure o

keep minoriy pariessome would argue, paricularly Kurdish pariesou o par-

liamen in order o bolser sabiliy afer he poliical chaos o he 1970s.17 By urkish

sandards, he HDP is ar o he lef, cerainly well o he lef o he oher hree major

paries. Is proessed goal is o make urkish democracy more inclusive, and he pary

sresses human righs or minoriies, an end o resricions on reedom o expression,and vas improvemens in urkey’s jusice sysem. Te HDP has he highes percen-

age o emale candidaes running on is pary lis and pledges in is elecion manieso

o “enable LGB individuals o lead an equal, honorable … lie.”18 Te HDP empha-

sizes he imporance o governmen ransparency, and is leaders claim hey wan o

end some o he AKP governmen’s more opaque measures, such as he presidenial

discreionary und. I he HDP passes he 10 percen hreshold, i could play he role

o kingmaker in a coaliion governmen in reurn or consiuional reorm and urher

devoluion o power o local governmens. However, he HDP’s ulimae goal is o

creae a ederal sysem in urkey, including greaer auonomy or local and provincial

governmens and he popular elecion o governors. Tese shifs would allow Kurds

greaer conrol over language, axaion, educaion, and policing.19


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Key issues

Economic concerns

Te firs major issue defining he elecionand probably he oremos issue in he

minds o urkish voersis slowing economic growh. Te AKP’s poliical successhas been based in large par on he rapid economic growh ha urkey enjoyed or

much o he pary’s firs decade in charge. Bu urkish growh slowed o 2.9 percen

in 2014, unemploymen icked up o 11.2 percen in firs quarer o 2015, and he

urkish lira is near a record low agains he U.S. dollar. 20 urmoil in Iraq and Syria

and slow growh in he eurozone have hur expors, which were down 13.4 percen in

March 2015 rom he previous year.21 And 14 percen inflaion o ood prices has hi

voers’ walles and orced he AKP o consider increasing ood impors.22 Te AKP

has never beore enered a general elecion wih a sruggling economy, and anemic

growh could spell rouble or is parliamenary majoriy.

Presidential proposal and changes in the AKP

Perhaps he mos holy debaed aspec o he elecion is Presiden Erdoğan’s proposal

o move he counry o a srong presidenial sysem, which would require parliamen o

rewrie he consiuion. Presiden Erdoğan argues ha he sysem esablished by he

urkish Consiuion o 1982 is illegiimae because i was esablished under a mili-

ary juna. Erdoğan also says ha a presidenial sysem would allow or more efficien

governmen and sronger economic growh. Prime Miniser Davuoğlu has backed he

move afer some iniial relucance.23

However, all o he major opposiion paries opposehe proposal or a srong presidency. Tey ear ha Presiden Erdoğan wans o use a

presidenial sysem o consolidae his hold on power and is primarily concerned wih

eliminaing legiimae checks on his auhoriy.24 Te AKP would need 330 parliamen

seas o pu proposed consiuional changes o a naional reerendum and 367 seas o

change he consiuion unilaerally. According o urkish pollsers Gezici and A&G, he

urkish public opposes he proposed presidenial change, wih 76.8 percen25 and 70

percen26 o hose surveyed, respecively, in avor o keeping he curren parliamenary

sysem o governmen. Anoher Gezici poll ound ha 64 percen o AKP voers oppose

he proposed move, even hough hey suppor he presiden’s pary.27 Despie he

unpopulariy o he presidenial proposal, opponens o he iniiaive ear ha Erdoğan

migh be able o carry a naional reerendum by making i a personal voe o confidence

and appealing o his populariy wih hal he counry, much as he did in he Augus 2014

presidenial elecion, when he won nearly 52 percen o he naional voe.28


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Te AKP also aces inernal issues on he eve o he elecion, which could signal public

dissen i he pary loses ground on June 7. Pary rules preven members o parliamen,

or MPs, rom serving more han hree erms, which means ha veeran AKP officials

such as pary co-ounder and Depuy Prime Miniser Bülen Arınç, ormer Depuy

Prime Miniser Beşir Aalay, Economy Miniser Ali Babacan, Depuy Pary Chairman

Hüseyin Çelik, Miniser o Energy and Naural Resources aner Yıldız, and Foreign

Miniser Mevlü Çavuşoğlu will all be excluded rom ormal roles in a new AKP govern-men. In oal, 60 siting AKP MPs canno run or parliamen again.29

Te shake-up o he pary lis has conribued o unusually public ensions wihin he AKP.

Tere are signs ha elemens wihin he AKP are concerned abou Presiden Erdoğan’s

dominance o he pary and he unpopulariy o his proposed move o a presidenial

sysem.30 Erdoğan’s asseriveness in declaring governmen policydespie he dubious

consiuionaliy o such acions by he presiden in he curren parliamenary sysemled

Depuy Prime Miniser Arınç o remark o reporers ha “responsibiliy is wih he gov-

ernmen and we can ake his saemens as personal views.”31 Arınç’s commen provoked

he combaive AKP mayor o Ankara, Melih Gökçek, an Erdoğan loyalis, o call or Arınç’sresignaion.32 Te heaed public exchange spun ou o conrol rom here and evenually

required Prime Miniser Davuoğlu o inervene and declare he debae over, warning

ha he “won’ olerae any moves ha will harm our pary beore or afer he elecions.”33

I is clear ha Presiden Erdoğan has an unparalleled abiliy o dominae he news cycle

in urkey, and his poliical inervenionswhich are becoming increasingly provocaive

on issues such as he Kurdish peace processclearly make some AKP members uneasy.

Tese ensions migh boil over should he pary lose big on June 7.

Finally, several narrower poliical developmens will shape he June voe. urkish

expariaes will be allowed o voe or he firs ime in a general elecion. urks living inEurope, noably he 1.4 million urkish ciizens in Germany, have already begun early

voing.34 In a poll by Germany’s Ehno-Forschung, 60.8 percen o urks living abroad

indicae suppor or he AKP, while 17.2 percen suppor he HDP. Te CHP and MHP

received 10.1 percen and 11.9 percen, respecively.35

Kurdish peace process

Te ongoing Kurdish peace process has also been a very divisive issue in urkish poliics

and has shaped he curren elecion in several ways. All he paries excep he MHP

suppor he negoiaed disarmamen o he Kurdisan Workers’ Pary, or PKK, which

urkey, he Unied Saes, and he European Union sill regard as a erroris organiza-

ion.36 Te MHP insiss on unilaeral disarmamen by he PKK, wihou correspond-

ing concessions rom he governmen.37 For hree years, he AKP and he PKK have

engaged in delicae alks o secure a long-erm setlemen, including disarmamen, he

reinegraion o PKK milians ino sociey, and he devoluion o some cenral govern-

men auhoriies o local governmens, paricularly in he majoriy-Kurdish provinces.


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Te negoiaions have been accompanied by an uneasy ceasefire, largely upheld by boh

sidesa welcome respie or a region long plagued by PKK-urkish clashes. However,

ensions remain high, as illusraed by an April clash in Ağrı, near he Iranian border,

ha lef five PKK milians dead and our urkish soldiers wounded.38

Te AKP has walked a delicae line in hese negoiaions; any deal mus achieve PKK

disarmamen and proec he cohesion o he urkish sae while addressing demandsor greaer represenaion rom Kurds who have been long repressed by aggressive

sae policies o assimilaion. Bu he AKP risks alienaing a deeply naionalisic

urkish poliy and provoking an elecoral backlash i i is seen as conceding oo much

o he PKK or giving special privileges o Kurds generally. Te AKP’s sraegy has,

hereore, been one o incremenal reorm wih he hope o slowly addressing Kurdish

concerns while upholding he ceasefire and avoiding concessions large enough o

mobilize an aggressive naionalis response.

Ta sraegy has largely worked poliically: Te AKP and HDP have generally spli he

Kurdish voe, and he AKP has no los meaningul ground o he ar-righ MHP. Bu he June 7 elecion will es he ongoing viabiliy o he approach, wih wo primary polii-

cal risks or he ruling pary. Firs, he slow pace o reorm and he crisis in Kobania

Syrian border own where he AKP was criicized or ailing o aid Kurdish orces

fighing he Islamic Sae o Iraq and al-Sham, or ISIScould combine o alienae some

conservaive Kurds who have previously voed or he AKP and lead hem o voe or

he HDP in he upcoming elecion. Second, he peace process and regional develop-

mens have emboldened Kurdish leaders o ake public posiions in avor o Kurdish

auonomy, which would have been unhinkable several years ago. Tis, in urn, may lead

o an upick in suppor or he ar-righ MHP.

Te AKP and previous governmens have been shielded rom a meaningul Kurdish

poliical challenge by he 10 percen hreshold law, legal bans on Kurdish poliical par-

ies, and he hosiliy o he wider urkish elecorae o Kurdish parieswhich are

ofen seen as close o, i no conrolled by, he PKK, a group ha is anahema o mos

urks. Bu his realiy has sared o change: Te HDP has made an effor o reach ou

o non-Kurds; urkish sociey has become more open o Kurds overall, hanks in par

o he AKP’s reorms: and liberals have largely abandoned he AKP, wih some likely

o voe or he HDP. Alhough he AKP has begun o allow limied Kurdish language

insrucion in schools and made some effors o develop he negleced Kurdish hear-

land in he souheas, a majoriy o Kurds oday suppor he HDP.39 Tis rend acceler-

aed afer he AKP’sparicularly Presiden Erdoğan’srheoric in response o he ISIS

assaul on Kobani in Syria, which many Kurds viewed as ani-Kurdish.40

Collecively, hese rends mean ha he HDP is approaching he 10 percen hreshold

or represenaion as a pary in parliamen, which would propel i o a record number

o seas. Bu i he HDP alls shor o 10 percen o he voe naionwide, he 54 seas o

60 seas or which i is compeiive would deaul o he pary ha receives he second-

highes number o voes in ha disric, undoubedly he AKP in souheasern urkey.41


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In he 2011 general elecion, or example, he HDP’s predecessor pary ran independen

candidaesraher han as a paryo circumven he 10 percen hreshold and won

36 seas; he AKP was he second-place finisher in every single case.42 Tis means ha

a iny swing eiher more or less han 10 percen or he HDP could resul in a massive

change in parliamen, one ha could eiher hand he AKP he majoriy i needs o inii-

ae consiuional changes or orce i ino a coaliion governmen. In his way, he ae o

consiuional reorm and he Kurdish peace process are deeply linked and rely on heoucome o he June 7 voe.

Rise of the nationalists?

A ourh issue ha is shaping he elecion and urkish poliics is a recen rise in naion-

alis senimen, which is mos visible in growing suppor or he ulranaionalis MHP.43

Tis has imporan ramificaions or he elecion resul and or poenial coaliion

poliics in he wake o he voe. While opinion is spli over wheher he HDP can reach

he 10 percen hreshold, he odds are good ha he MHP will increase is share o he voe by beween 2 percen and 4 percen. One reason or his is srucural: Te urkish

populaion and educaional sysem remain very naionalisic. Daing back o he ounda-

ion o he modern republic and he reorms o Musaa Kemal Aaürk ollowing he

desrucion o he Otoman Empire, urkey’s educaional and culural insiuions have

been dedicaed o reinorcing sae conrol and building naional uniy in order o resis

urher erosion o he naion-saehence he consiuion’s rheorical emphasis on

he “will o he naion” and he inviolabiliy o he urkish sae.44 Unil 2013, urkish

sudens were required o recie a daily oah ha read, “I am a urk, hones and hard-

working. My principle is o … love my homeland and my naion more han mysel.”45

Such srong naionalis oundaions have ofen helped he MHP; recenly, he pary has become a deaul sance or some urkish voers who have grown dissaisfied wih he

AKP and do no see he CHP or HDP as viable alernaives.

Recen diplomaic snubs rom oreign powers and he Syrian reugee crisis may have

also conribued o he increase in suppor or urkey’s naionaliss. Te inernaional

communiy’s suppor or Armenians during he cenennial o 1915 led o an oupouring

o urkish naionalism; indeed, urkey’s hree larges parieswhich can agree on litle

elseissued a join declaraion condemning he European Parliamen’s resoluion o

recognize he 1915 Armenian genocide.46 Meanwhile, urkey hosed more han 2 mil-

lion Syrian reugees and has spen over $5 billion in humaniarian aid since he begin-

ning o he conflic as o May 2015.47 In border owns such as Reyhanlı and Kilis, Syrian

reugees ounumber urks.48 Te AKP’s moves o provide social services o he reugees

has produced a backlash rom some voers, who believe some reugees should be relo-

caed back across he border. Te CHP and MHP have sough o channel many urks’

concerns abou access o jobs and healh care in ligh o he resources spen caring or

Syrian reugees and he influx o cheap labor.49


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Te MHP has suck o is radiional conronaional line regarding he Kurds, arguing

ha here can be no reconciliaion wih he PKK, ha reorms benefiing he Kurdish

populaion are ill advised, and ha he peace process will lead o he disinegraion o

urkey.50 Bu he pary ’s elecion manieso expresses suppor or increased righs or

Alevis: Pary leader Bahçeli has promised ha his pary would recognize and proec

Alevi places o worship and include Alevi clerics in urkey’s Diyane, or religious affairs

bureau, should i ener he governmen.51 Tis marks a serious deparure or he MHP, which has radiionally been hosile oward Alevis, and he sofer one may be an effor

o lure naionalis, secular Alevis who generally voe or he CHP o voe or he MHP

or help prepare or poenial cooperaion beween he MHP and CHP afer he elecion.

Potential outcomes

Naional polling in Figure 1 shows public suppor or he paries and he poenial need

or a coaliion governmen, bu esimaes abou he exac allocaion o seas are very

approximae and depend on he disribuion o voes by disric, no jus he overallpopular voe. Sill, he naional polling indicaes a realisic chance ha urkey will

require a minoriy or coaliion governmen in parliamen. Locally, polling in five com-

peiive provincesshown in Figure 2illusraes he decline in suppor or he AKP,

which primarily benefis he MHP and HDP.

Despie a likely decline in is overall share o he voe, he AKP could gain addiional

seas in parliamen in June i he HDP ails o reach he 10 percen hreshold. As he only

oher compeiive pary in urkey’s Kurdish regions, any seas ha he HDP wins would

deaul o he AKP i he HDP received less han 10 percen naionwide. Wihou he

HDP in parliamen, he AKP would easily be able o orm a single-pary governmen,and he ae o proposed consiuional changes would depend on CHP and MHP gains

or losses. For example, i he CHP mainains 25 percen o 26 percen o he voe and

he MHP increases o 17 percen o 18 percen, hen he AKP would all shor o he 330

MPs needed o pu consiuional proposals o a reerendum, and he proposed move o

a presidenial sysem would likely be abandoned.52 I is unlikely ha he CHP and MHP

could orm a coaliion governmen wihou he HDP in parliamen and supporive o he

coaliion, as polls sugges ha he AKP will no drop below 40 percen o he voe, and in

ha case, he CHP and MHP’s gains would no be enough o ounumber he AKP.53


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FIGURE 1

Recent Turkish national polling, by party

✤: Indicates results that would likely necessitate a coalition government, but these estimates are very approximate; technically, the distribution of

votes at the district level, not just the overall popular vote, will determine the allocation of seats.

Sources: BusinessHT.com, “Sonar son anket sonuçlarını açıkladı,” May 25, 2015, available at http://www.businessht.com.tr/guncel/haber/1 082749-so-nar-anketi; Secim Anketi, “DENGE son seçim anketi,” May 26, 2015, available at http://www.secimanketleri.org/denge-son-secim-anketi; Telegrafhane,"KONDA’nın anket sonuçları piyasayı sarstı’," May 21, 2015, available at http://www.telgrafhane.org/kondanin-anket-sonuclari-piyasayi-sarsti/;

Telegrafhane, "Seçimlere 16 gün kala MetroPOLL’ün son anketi; işte partilerin oy dağılımı," May 21, 2015, available at http://www.telgrafhane.org/secim-lere-16-gun-kala-metropollun-son-anketi-iste-partilerin-oy-dagilimi/; Telegrafhane, “Gezici son anket sonuçlarını açıkladı. CHP’de büyük yükseliş, HDPbarajı aşıyor,” May 17, 2015, available at http://www.telgrafhane.org/gezici-son-anket-sonuclarini-acikladi-chpde-buyuk-yukselis-hdp-baraji-asiyor/;Objective Research Center, “SEÇMEN TERCİHLERİ ARAŞTIRMASI” (2015), available at http://www.orcarastirma.com.tr/wp-content/up-loads/2015/05/SEÇMEN-TERCİHLERİ-ARAŞTIRMASI-MAYIS-20151.pdf; Internet Haber, “Denge Araştırma son seçim anketini açıkladı,” May 5, 2015, availableat http://www.internethaber.com/denge-arastirma-son-secim-anketini-acikladi-786930h.htm; Telegrafhane, “Konsensus son anket sonuçlarını açıkladı,”May 10, 2015, available at http://www.telgrafhane.org/konsensus-son-anket-sonuclarini-acikladi/; Kamuoyu Research Institute, “Nisan 2015 SiyasiGündem Araştırması,” available at http://kamuar.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=188:nisan&catid=37:mansetler&Itemid=82(last accessed May 2015); Taraf, “AKP’nin kabusu bu anket olacak…Rekor düşüş…CHP yükselişte…HDP kılpayı..,” April 28, 2015, available athttp://www.taraf.com.tr/politika/akpnin-kabusu-bu-anket-olacak-rekor-dusus-chp-yukseliste-hdp-kilpayi/#; SONAR Haber, “Türkiye'nin beklediği sonseçim anketi,” April 29, 2015, available at http://www.sonarhaber.com/arastirmalar/turkiyenin-bekledigi-son-secim-anketi-h19608.html; Evrin Güvendik,“Sandıkta AK Parti farkı,” Sabah, April 28, 2015, available at http://www.sabah.com.tr/gundem/2015/04/28/sandikta-ak-parti-farki#; Aktif Haber, “ÖzerSencar Son Seçim Anketini Canlı Yayında Açıkladı!,” May 7, 2015, available at http://www.aktifhaber.com/ozer-sencar-son-secim-anketini-can-li-yayinda-acikladi-1166486h.htm.

MAY 25 Pollster: SONAR ✤

MAY 16–24 Pollster: Denge 3.3%

4.9%

4.1%

5.5%

4.3%

8%

4.4%

4.1%

5.6%

3.3%

3.9%

10.2%

11.5%

10.5%

8.1%

9.5%

9.7%

6.7%

11%

9.6%

9.2%

9.2%

10.5%

17.6%

14.4%

17.1%

17.8%

15.1%

15.8%

22.4%

18%

17.2%

15.25%

17.1%

16.1%

26.4%

28.7%

30.1%

23.9%

25.5%

26.7%

26.7%

28.5%

26.1%

24.8%

27%

25.5%

42.5%

41%

40.5%

38.2%

47.5%

45.6%

43.9%

36.2%

38.1%

43%

45.2%

42.8%

44.6%

AKP CHP MHP HDP Others

26% 10.4%

MAY 21 Pollster: Konda ✤

MAY 8–11 Pollster: MetroPoll

MAY 9–10 Pollster: Gezici ✤

MAY 4–7 Pollster: ORC

MAY 3–7 Pollster: Denge

APRIL 30–MAY 7 Pollster: Konsensus

APRIL 20–27 Pollster: KamuAR ✤

APRIL 20–26 Pollster: Gezici ✤

APRIL 18–25 Pollster: SONAR

APRIL 18–25 Pollster: MAK

APRIL 1821 Pollster: MetroPoll ✤

4.5%

3.9%

18.1%


11/16


However, even a small HDP vicory would dramaically aler he composiion o parlia-

men and migh orce a coaliion. Wih 10 percen or 11 percen o he voe, he HDP

could gain anywhere rom 54 o 60 seas in parliamen. In ha scenario, he margins or

AKP single-pary conrol would be slim and are very difficul o predicperhaps no more

han our seas depending upon he perormances o he CHP and MHP in cerain dis-

rics. For example, i he HDP were o ge 11 percen o he voe, he CHP 25 percen, and

he MHP 17 percen, ha couldaccording o one calculaiongive he AKP around

275 seas, one sea shy o a majoriy.54 Such a resul could orce a minoriy governmen ha

would rely on ad hoc suppor rom oher paries or a unsable coaliion i he AKP finds ways o luring parliamenarians rom oher paries o make up a narrow majoriy.

Coaliion opions appear limied or urkey’s poliical paries, according o heir public

saemens, bu such commimens may ade in he wake o a resh naional voe. Te AKP

has saed i will no orm a coaliion wih any pary and will orm a minoriy governmen

i necessary.55 Te MHP has ruled ou paricipaing in any coaliion wih he AKP or he

HDP.56 Te CHP remains he mos open o he ormaion o a coaliion governmen.

Indeed, he CHP fielded a join presidenial candidae wih he MHP in he 2014 presi-

denial elecion and, separaely, suppored he HDP posiion on he Ağrı inciden.57 Tese

posiions may indicae openness o orming a coaliion governmen wih eiher pary.

Neiher he HDP nor he CHP are likely o orm a governmen wih he AKP due o heir

resisance o he proposed presidenial sysem and he AKP’s religiously inged ideology;

boh CHP and HDP are resoluely secular. Sill, observers have long discussed he pos-

sibiliy ha he HDP would se aside is misrus o he AKP and orm a coaliion in which

i provides suppor or AKP-led consiuional reorm wih he undersanding ha he new

FIGURE 2

Local polling in five competitive provinces

Note: Parentheses indicate an increase or a decrease from 2011 general elections results. A recent Gezici poll indicates declining support for the AKP in

these five competitive provinces, to the primary benefit of the MHP and the HDP.

Source: En Son Haber, “Gezici anket şirketi AK Parti oylarını eritti,” March 31, 2015, available at http://www.ensonhaber.com/gezici-anket-sirketi-ak-par-

ti-oylarini-eritti-2015-03-31.html.

Adana

Antalya

Gaziantep

Hatay

Mersin

(▲3.4%)25.4% (▲5.5%)32.2% (▲2.1%)30.2% (▼6.3%)

11.2%

(▲3.4%)25.4% (▲5.5%)32.2% (▲2.1%)30.2% (▼6.3%)

11.2%

(▲6.7%)15.2% (▲6%)27.9% (▲8.9%)43.4% (▼17.1%)

12%

(▲0.7%)24% (▲11.6%)36.8% (▼1%)29.8% (▼13.8%)

2.2%

(▲2.5%)30% (▲7.3%)31% (▼0.4%)24.9% (▼6.5%)

12%

AKP CHP MHP HDP


12/16


consiuion would provide greaer auhoriy or local governmens, remove problemaic

ani-error provisions ha are mos ofen used agains Kurds, and one down he aggres-

sive ehnic naionalism o he curren consiuion. Bu his appears very unlikely afer he

anger and proess elicied by he Kobani crisis and he rheoric rom he wo paries has

grown so heaed ha reconciliaion may be all bu impossible.

Neverheless, no coaliion combinaion should be absoluely ruled ou, as he lure ogovernmen and is many perks could prove irresisible. Even an unlikely CHP-MHP-

HDP coaliionor a slighly less unlikely CHP-MHP minoriy governmen, wih con-

diional HDP suppor rom he ousidecould conceivably emerge, even i i is only

shor lived and or a specific purpose, such as lowering he elecion hreshold or open-

ing corrupion invesigaions agains he AKP. While a shor-lived hree-way coaliion

beween CHP-MHP-HDP migh make sense o deal a blow o he dominan AKP, i is

less likely because o MHP-HDP hosiliy. Addiionally, urkish MPs earn a pension

only i hey have served a leas wo years in parliamen, so some members migh no

wan o orm a emporary and likely unsable hree-way coaliion ha migh jeopardize

heir pension paymens i hey lose re-elecion or ge dropped rom pary liss.58

Moslikely, none o he hree main paries would coalesce wih he HDP because o is per-

ceived associaion wih he PKK.

So he elecion will come down o wheher he HDP can clear he 10 percen hreshold

and he size o AKP losses. Te mos likely oucomes are coninued AKP single-pary

rule or an AKP-MHP coaliion governmen.59 While boh MHP leader Bahçeli and AKP

Prime Miniser Davuoğlu have ruled ou a coaliion, i may emerge as he only opion

o secure a majoriy in parliamen.60 Te AKP and MHP share a similar poliical base

and conservaive principles, and he hosiliy beween he HDP and MHP makes almos

any oher conceivable coaliion unworkable.

I he HDP does no make he hreshold and he AKP secures an ourigh majoriy,

Presiden Erdoğan would push parliamen o enac his presidenial proposal as par o

consiuional reorm. Depending on he size o he vicory, however, oher elemens

wihin he AKP ha oppose he presidenial sysem and are worried abou Erdoğan’s

dominance may ry o differeniae hemselves. Undoubedly, however, an ourigh AKP

majoriy would bring our more years o more conservaive and religious poliics. I

would also likely mean coninued acive suppor or Islamis Syrian rebels and, possibly,

renewed work o secure a lasing peace wih he PKK. While i may bring sabiliy, an

ourigh AKP win would also likely mean urher ani-Wesern rheoric and more pres-

sure on poliical dissen and reedom o expression a home, along wih ongoing effors

by he AKP o asser poliical conrol over he judiciary.

I he HDP does make he hreshold and he AKP is orced ino a coaliionmos

likely wih he MHPhe governmen is likely o ake a sronger naionalis line a

home bu adop, perhaps, a more resrained oreign policy. Te AKP would be pressed

by is coaliion parners o moderae is suppor or Islamis poliical paries in he


13/16


region. In paricular, urkey’s asserive policy on Syria migh prove difficul o susain

in a coaliion wih he MHP. Boh paries would likely be comorable wih coninued

pressure on journaliss and he media. Ani-Wesern rheoric, which has become an

AKP saple, would coninue. Te MHP would likely oppose any move o devolve new

powers o local governmens and would almos cerainly scutle any consiuional

reorm effor in he direcion o enhanced powers or Erdoğan. Perhaps mos impor-

anly, an AKP-MHP coaliion would be unlikely o make any concessions as par ohe Kurdish peace process, which migh promp renewed PKK insurgency or Kurdish

poliical effors o esablish local auonomy ouside he ormal poliical srucures.

Conclusion

Whaever he oucome, urkey is headed oward is mos exciing and poenially

decisive elecion in more han a decade. Wih hree, or someimes our, major paries

compeiive in cerain key disrics, unreliable polling, and he disoring effec o he

10 percen hreshold a play, i is almos impossible o call in advance. Wha is cerainis ha he resul will be crucial or urkey and imporan or he Unied Saes. Perhaps

mos imporanly, he conduc o he voe could rejuvenae or doom urkey’s repuaion

as a modern democracy.

Michael Werz is a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress. Max Hoffman is a

Policy Analyst at the Center. Mark Bhaskar is an intern at the Center.


14/16


Endnotes

1 Reuters, “Turkish pollsters see weaker support for AK Partyin June vote,” April 15, 2015, available at http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/15/us-turkey-politics-poll-idUSKBN-0N60YW20150415.

2 BBC News, “Recep Tayyip Erdogan wins Turkish presidentialelection,” August 10, 2014, available at http://www.bbc.

com/news/world-europe-28729234.

3 The Grand National Assembly of Turkey, “The Constitutionof the Republic of Turkey,” available at https://global.tbmm.gov.tr/docs/constitution_en.pdf (last accessed May 2015).

4 AK PARTİ, “Political Vision of AK PARTİ” (2015), available athttp://www.akparti.org.tr/english/akparti/2023-political-vision.

5 Mustafa Sönmez, “Turkish business world in panic overcontraction in economic growth,” Hürriyet Daily News,April 6, 2015, available at http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-business-world-in-panic-over-contraction-in-economic growth.aspx?PageID=238&NID=80600&NewsCatID=345.

6 AK PARTİ, “Political Vision of AK PARTİ.”

7 See, for example, BusinessHT.com, “Sonar son anket

sonuçlarını açıkladı,” May 25, 2015, available at http://www.businessht.com.tr/guncel/haber/1082749-sonar-anketi;Secim Anketi, “DENGE son seçim anketi,” May 26, 2015, avail-able at http://www.secimanketleri.org/denge-son-secim-anketi; Telegrafhane, “KONDA’nın anket sonuçları piyasayısarstı,’” May 21, 2015, available at http://www.telgrafhane.org/kondanin-anket-sonuclari-piyasayi-sarsti/; Telegrafhane,“Seçimlere 16 gün kala MetroPOLL’ün son anketi; iste par-tilerin oy dagılımı,” May 21, 2015, available at http://www.telgrafhane.org/secimlere-16-gun-kala-metropollun-son-anketi-iste-partilerin-oy-dagilimi.

8 The Alevis are a persecuted religious minority who areoften described as Shia but in fact are more heterodox andhumanist in focus and seen as staunchly secular in theirpolitics. Amanda Paul and Demir Murat Seyrek, “Freedomof religion in Turkey - The Alevi issue” (Brussels: EuropeanPolicy Centre, 2014), available at http://www.epc.eu/pub_details.php?pub_id=4093.

9 Serkan Demirtaş, “CHP promises a halt to ‘Middle Easterniza-

tion’ of Turkey,” H ürriyet Daily News, April 22, 2015, availableat http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/chp-promises-a-halt-to-middle-easternization-of-turkey.aspx?pageID=238&nid=81389&NewsCatID=429. See also Deniz Arslan, “Oppositionwants to change Turkish foreign policy on Iran, Iraq,” Today’s

Zaman, May 20, 2015, available at http://www.todayszaman.com/diplomacy_opposition-wants-to-change-turkish-foreign-policy-on-iran-iraq_381275.html. On the MHP,see Milliyetçi Hareket Partisi, “Foreign Policy,” available athttp://www.mhp.org.tr/htmldocs/mhp_en/2772/party-program/work-life-social-security.html (last accessedMay 2015). See also Fulya Özerkan, “MHP’s Aktan: Shutdown İncilik base,” H ürriyet Daily News, October 16, 2007,available at http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/default.aspx?pageid=438&n=mhps-aktan-shut-down-incirlik-base-2007-10-16.

10 Turkiye Buyuk Millet Meclisi, “V. Ecevit Hukumeti BakanlarKurulu,” available at https://www.tbmm.gov.tr/hukumetler/HB57.htm (last accessed May 2015).

11 Daily Sabah, “Turkey’s main opposition CHP announces elec-tion manifesto full of promises,” April 19, 2015, available athttp://www.dailysabah.com/elections/2015/04/19/turkeys-main-opposition-chp-announces-election-manifesto-full-of-promises.

12 Today’s Zaman, “Former Economic Affairs Minister Dervişaccepts deputy PM role under CHP,” March 26, 2015, avail-able at http://www.todayszaman.com/anasayfa_former-economic-affairs-minister-dervis-accepts-deputy-pm-role-under-chp_376344.html.

13 Merve Aydoğan, “Halting reconciliation process tops MHP’selectoral manifesto,” Daily Sabah, May 3, 2015, available athttp://www.dailysabah.com/elections/2015/05/03/halting-reconciliation-process-tops-mhps-electoral-manifesto.

14 National Turk, “Syrian refugees cost at least 400 million toTurkish economy: Turkish Finance Minister,” October 16,

2012, available at http://www.nationalturk.com/en/syrian-refugees-cost-at-least-400-million-to-turkish-economy-turk-ish-finance-minister-26938.

15 Daily Sabah, “CHP’s latest election promise of sending backSyrian refugees in Turkey comes under criticism,” April23, 2015, available at http://www.dailysabah.com/poli-tics/2015/04/23/chps-latest-election-promise-of-sending-back-syrian-refugees-in-turkey-comes-under-criticism.

16 See, for example, Today’s Zaman, “Proposal for safe zonewithin Turkey receives mixed reaction,” October 19, 2014,available at http://www.todayszaman.com/anasayfa_pro-posal-for-safe-zone-within-turkey-receives-mixed-reac-tion_362085.html.

17 See, for example, the European Court of Human Rights judgment on the subject: European Court of Human Rights,“Case of Yumak and Sadak v. Turkey” (2008), available athttp://portales.te.gob.mx/internacional/sites/portales.

te.gob.mx.internacional/files/CASE%20OF%20YUMAK.pdf . 18 KurdishQuestion, “HDP Has Highest Percentage of Women

Candidates For Turkey Elections,” April 8, 2015, availableat http://kurdishquestion.com/index.php/kurdistan/north-kurdistan/hdp-has-highest-percentage-of-women-candidates-for-turkey-elections.html.

19 Harvest, “The Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) electionmanifesto in English,” April 21, 2015, available at http://tur-keyharvest.blogspot.com/2015/04/the-peoples-democrati-oc-party-hdp.html.

20 See, for example, Today’s Zaman, “Unemployment rateslightly up, 1 in 5 Turkish young people jobless,” May15, 2015, available at http://www.todayszaman.com/business_unemployment-rate-slightly-up-1-in-5-turkish-young-people-jobless_380789.html. See also AnadoluAgency, “Turkish lira hits record low of 2.7420 against USdollar,” Daily Sabah, April 24, 2015, available at http://www.dailysabah.com/money/2015/04/24/turkish-lira-hits-record-

low-of-27420-against-us-dollar.

21 Today’s Zaman, “Turkish PMI dips to 6-year low, exports con-tract by 14 pct in March,” April 1, 2015, available at http://www.todayszaman.com/business_turkish-pmi-dips-to-6-year-low-exports-contract-by-14-pct-in-march_376883.html.

22 H ürriyet Daily News, “Food prices fall to near 5-year low inworld, rise in Turkey,” May 7, 2015, available at http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/food-prices-fall-to-near-5-year-low-in-world-rise-in-turkey-.aspx?pageID=238&nID=82081&NewsCatID=344.

23 See, for example, Murat Yetkin, “Davutoğlu finally supportsErdoğan’s presidency model,” H ürriyet Daily News, March30, 2015, available at http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/davutoglu-finally-supports-erdogans-presidency-model.aspx?PageID=238&NID=80331&NewsCatID=409. See alsoAndadolu Agency, “Davutoğlu vows to ‘erase all trace’ of

Turkey’s coups,”H ürriyet Daily News, May 13, 2015, availableat http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/davutoglu-vows-to-erase-all-trace-of-turkeys-coups------.aspx?pageID=238&nid=82376&NewsCatID=338; Semih Idiz, “Erdogan aims tocreate stronger presidential system,” Al-Monitor, February3, 2015, available at http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/02/turkey-erdogan-presidential-system-campaign.html#.

24 Idiz, “Erdogan aims to create stronger presidential system.”

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25 T24 Internet Gazetesi, “Gezici Araştırma Şirketi’nin anketinegöre halk, ‘Başkanlık’, medyaya baskı ve ekonomi hakkındane düşünüyor?”, February 23, 2015, available at http://t24.com.tr/haber/gezici-arastirma-sirketinin-anketine-gore-halk-baskanlik-medyaya-baski-ve-ekonomi-hakkinda-ne-dusunuyor,288219.

26 Samanyolu Haber, “Başkanlık sistemine halktan veto,” Febru-ary 3, 2015, available at http://www.samanyoluhaber.com/gundem/Baskanlik-sistemine-halktan-veto/1072434/.

27 Today’s Zaman, “Overwhelming majority against presiden-tial system, poll shows,” March 18, 2015, available at http://

www.todayszaman.com/national_overwhelming-majority-against-presidential-system-poll-shows_375659.html.

28 BBC News, “Recep Tayyip Erdogan wins Turkish presidentialelection.”

29 Rufiz Hafizoglu, “Scenario: If Turkey’s ruling party loseselection,” Trend, May 8, 2015, available at http://en.trend.az/world/turkey/2392973.html.

30 H ürriyet Daily News, “Checks, balances a must for presidency,says Deputy PM Arınç,” April 3, 2015, available at http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/checks-balances-a-must-for-presidency-says-deputy-pm-arinc.aspx?pageID=238&nID=80556&NewsCatID=338.

31 Semih Idiz, “What is Erdoğan trying to do?”, H ürriyet DailyNews, March 24, 2015, available at http://www.hurriyetdaily-news.com/what-is-erdogan-trying-to-do.aspx?pageID=449&nID=80077&NewsCatID=416.

32 H ürriyet Daily News, “Turkey’s Deputy PM trashes Ankaramayor after call to quit,” March 23, 2015, available at http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkeys-deputy-pm-trashes-ankara-mayor-after-call-to-quit.aspx?PageID=238&NID=80088&NewsCatID=338.

33 See, for example, H ürriyet Daily News, “In-house AKP fight isover, Turkish PM Davutoğlu says,” March 25, 2015, availableat http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/in-house-akp-fight-is-over-turkish-pm-davutoglu-says.aspx?pageID=238&nID=80157&NewsCatID=338; Sefa Özkaya “Ankara mayor willaccount for his words, Turkish Deputy PM vows,” H ürriyetDaily News, March 27, 2015, available at http://www.hurriy-etdailynews.com/ankara-mayor-will-account-for-his-words-turkish-deputy-pm-vows.aspx?pageID=238&nID=80286&NewsCatID=338.

34 H ürriyet Daily News, “President Erdoğan urges Turkish citi-zens living abroad to vote,” May 10, 2015, available at http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/president-erdogan-urges-

turkish-citizens-living-abroad-to-vote.aspx?pageID=238&nID=82201&NewsCatID=338.

35 2015 Genel Seçim, “Almanya’da son seçim anketi çarpıcısonuçlar,” available at http://www.2015genelsecim.org/haber/191/almanya-da-son-secim-anketi-carpici-sonuclar(last accessed May 2015).

36 U.S. Department of State, “Foreign Terrorist Organizations,”available at http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/other/des/123085.htm (last accessed May 2015).

37 Today’s Zaman, “MHP leader says Kurdish peace processwill ‘ruin’ Turkey,” March 3, 2015, available at http://www.todayszaman.com/latest-news_mhp-leader-says-kurdish-peace-process-will-ruin-turkey_374165.html.

38 Today’s Zaman, “Fog of mystery and doubt still lingers overcontroversial Ağrı clash,” April 14, 2015, available at http://www.todayszaman.com/national_fog-of-mystery-and-

doubt-still-lingers-over-controversial-agri-clash_377988.html.

39 Results from the August 2014 presidential election andthe March 2014 nationwide local elections demonstratethis dominance in the Kurdish areas. This was also clearlyon display during the authors’ April 2015 research trip tosoutheastern Turkey. For example, see Mesut Yeğen, “The2011 Elections and the Kurdish Question,” Insight Turkey 13(4) (2011): 147–169, available at http://file.insightturkey.com/Files/Pdf/insight_turkey_vol_13_no_4_2011_yegen.pdf.

40 For example, President Erdoğan said repeatedly that heregarded the Kurdish rebels defending Kobani as equivalentto ISIS, deserving the same response. See Kirk Semple andTim Arango, “Kurdish Rebels Assail Turkish Inaction on ISISas Peril to Peace Talks,” The New York Times, October 12,2014, available at http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/13/world/middleeast/kurdish-rebels-assail-turkish-inaction-on-isis-as-peril-to-peace-talks.html.

41 Murat Yetkin, “Kurdish votes key to Turkish Electi ons,”H ürriyet Daily News, March 14, 2015, available at http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/kurdish-votes-key-to-turkish-elections.aspx?PageID=238&NID=79652&NewsCatID=409.

42 Yeğen, “The 2011 Elections and the Kurdish Question.”

43 See, for example, BusinessHT.com, “Sonar son anketsonuçlarını açıkladı”; Secim Anketi, “DENGE son seçimanketi”; Telegrafhane, “KONDA’nın anket sonuçları piyasayısarstı’”; Telegrafhane, “Seçimlere 16 gün kala MetroPOLL’ünson anketi; iste partilerin oy da gılımı.”

44 For example, see the constitution’s categorical declarationthat “The Turkish State, with its territory and nation, in anindivisible entity. Its language is Turkish.” See The Grand Na-tional Assembly of Turkey, “The Constitution of the Republicof Turkey.”

45 İpek Üzüm, “Experts say gov’t was already late in removingstudent oath,” Today’s Zaman, October 6, 2013, available athttp://www.todayszaman.com/national_experts-say-govt-was-already-late-in-removing-student-oath_328106.html.

46 Today’s Zaman, “European ‘genocide vote’ unacceptable,Turkish political parties say in joint declaration,” April 16,2015, available at http://www.todayszaman.com/latest-news_european-genocide-vote-unacceptable-turkish-political-parties-say-in-joint-declaration_378193.html.

47 Kilic Bugra Kanat and Kadir Ustun, “Turkey’s Syrian Refugees:Toward Integration” (Ankara: SETA Foundation, 2015), avail-able at http://setadc.org/files/49_refugee_report_web.pdf.

48 Ibid.

49 Ibid.

50 For example, see Today’s Zaman, “MHP leader says Kurdishpeace process will ‘ruin’ Turkey.” See also H ürriyet Daily News,“MHP accuses gov’t, Erdoğan of ‘treason’ over Kurdish peaceprocess,” March 1, 2015, available at http://www.hurriyetdai-lynews.com/mhp-accuses-govt-erdogan-of-treason-over-kurdish-peace-process.aspx?pageID=238&nid=79038&NewsCatID=338.

51 Aydin Albayrak, “MHP’s election manifesto promises welfareto disadvantaged,” Today’s Zaman, May 3, 2015, availableat http://www.todayszaman.com/national_mhps-election-manifesto-promises-welfare-to-disadvantaged_379716.html.

52 For these approximate election predictions, the authorshave relied on an excellent predictor tool: Deniz CemÖnduygu, Eser Aygün, and Amaç Herdağdelen, “Interac-tive: Simulator for Turkey’s upcoming general elections,”H ürriyet Daily News, May 2, 2015, available at http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/interactive-simulator-for-turkeys-upcoming-general-elections.aspx?pageID=238&nID=81858&NewsCatID=338. For more information, consult theiragency site: Çilek Ağacı, “Seçim Simülatörü 2015,” April 23,2015, available at http://cilekagaci.com/2015/04/23/secim-simulatoru-2015/. The predictions are approximate, as seatsare in fact allocated by district and predicting results basedon national percentages is inexact. In the creators’ words, to

deal with the issue they “assume each party’s vote distribu-tion across electoral districts stays the same as the previouselections. For example, if the Justice and Development Party(Ak Parti) received 2% of its votes from Manisa in 2011, weallocate 2% of the predicted votes in 2015 to Manisa. We dothe same for other parties for Manisa and apply the D’Hondtmethod to estimate the seat allocations for this city. Werepeat this procedure for all electoral districts and we getthe national estimates for the seat allocations.” For theAKP, CHP, and MHP, the tool uses the 2011 general electionnumbers; for the HDP, it uses the 2014 presidential electionnumbers. This could result in an overestimation of the HDP’svote tally due to the different dynamic of the presidentialrace—only three major candidates—but should still offer agood overall approximation.

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Previewing Turkey’s General Election

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