Preterm Birth and Abortion 2 · 2017-07-25 · • Over the last two decades, the percentage of...
Transcript of Preterm Birth and Abortion 2 · 2017-07-25 · • Over the last two decades, the percentage of...
TheBurdenofAbortionandthePretermBirthCrisis
MJMcCaffrey,MD,CAPTUSN(Ret)ProfessorofPediatrics
DivisionofNeonatal-PerinatalMedicineDepartmentofPediatrics
UniversityofNorthCarolinaSchoolofMedicine
PresentedatMassachusettsCitizensforLifeConvention,April8,2017
Itinerary
• Thepretermbirthepidemic• Areallassociationsequalinthepretermbirthdiscussion?
– Smokingandsurgicalabortion• Theevidencefortheassociations• Istheabortionassociationmootinaneraofmedicalabortion?• Estimatingtheimpactofabortiononverypretermbirths• Countingthecostofabortion’simpactonVPB• Whatthen?
ThePretermBirthCrisis• In2015,9.6%ofallbabiesbornintheUnitedStatesarebornpreterm• Overthelasttwodecades,thepercentageofpre-termdeliverieshasrisen20percent• PretermbirthvsLBW
– Prematurity,definedasabirthpriorto37weeks– LBW<2500gramsor5lbs 8oz
• .• In201563,000USbirthsareclassifiedasVeryPretermBirths(VPBs):<32weeks.• VPBsconstitute1.6%ofallbirthsintheUS• Thesebirthsassociatedwiththehighestriskfordeathandmorbidity
– RespiratoryDistressSyndromeandChronicLungdisease– Necrotizingenterocolitis– Intraventricular Hemorrhage(IVH)orbrainbleeding– Blindness– Hearingloss– Mentalretardation– CerebralPalsy
• TheestimatedannualcostforcareattributabletopretermbirthintheUnitedStatesis$26billion
InstituteofMedicine,NationalAcademyofScience,PretermBirth:Causes,Consequences,andPrevention,NationalAcademiesPress,WashingtonDC,2006.
PretermBirthTrends
IOMReportonPretermBirth:Causes,Consequences,andPrevention
• Establishedin1970bytheNationalAcademyofSciencestosecuretheservicesofeminentmembersofappropriateprofessionsintheexaminationofpolicymatterspertainingtothehealthofthepublic.
• TheIOMactsundertheresponsibilitygiventotheNationalAcademyofSciencesbyitscongressionalchartertobeanadvisertothefederalgovernment.
• ThemajorityofIOMstudiesandotheractivitiesarerequestedandfundedbythefederalgovernment.
InstituteofMedicine,NationalAcademyofScience,PretermBirth:Causes,Consequences,andPrevention,NationalAcademiesPress,WashingtonDC,2006.
PerIOM:“ImmutableRiskFactors”AssociatedWithPretermBirth
• Previouslowbirthweightorpretermdelivery• Multiple2ndtrimesterspontaneousabortion• Priorfirsttrimesterinducedabortion• Familialandintergenerationalfactors• Placentalabnormalities• Cervicalanduterineanomalies• Inuterodiethylstilbestrolexposure• Multiplegestations• Infantsex• Shortstature• Lowprepregnancy weight/lowbodymassindex• Urogenitalinfections• Preeclampsia
InstituteofMedicine,NationalAcademyofScience,PretermBirth:Causes,Consequences,andPrevention.NationalAcademiesPress,WashingtonDC,2006:AppendixB,TableB-5,p625.
PerIOM:PossiblyMutableRiskFactorsAssociatedWithPretermBirth
• Cigarettesmoking• Noorinadequateprenatalcareusage• Useofmarijuanaandotherillicitdrugs• Cocaineuse• Alcoholconsumption• Caffeineintake• Maternalweightgain• Dietaryintake• Sexualactivityduringlatepregnancy• Leisure-timephysicalactivities
InstituteofMedicine,NationalAcademyofScience,PretermBirth:Causes,Consequences,andPrevention,NationalAcademiesPress,WashingtonDC,2006.
ReportoftheAdvisoryCommitteetotheSurgeonGeneraloftheUnitedStates:1964
“Fiveretrospectiveandtwoprospectivestudieshaveshownanassociationbetweenmaternalsmokingduringpregnancyandbirthweightoftheinfant.Womensmokingduringpregnancyhavebabiesoflowerbirthweightthannon-smokersofthesamesocialclass.Theyhavealsoasignificantlygreaternumberofprematuredeliveries(definedasbirthweightof2,500gramsorless)thanthenon-smokingcontrols.”
CigaretteSmokingandPretermBirth:1985
TheDataonSmokingandPretermBirth– A1984metaanalysiswhichexamined5studies,usedunadjustedoddsratios1– Sinceonesystematicreviewmetaanalysisofgoodquality2– Pooledpointestimateforanymaternalsmokingversusnomaternalsmokingwas1.27(95%
confidenceinterval,1.21-1.33)– Noneofthestudiesincludedpriorabortionasavariable– Heaviersmokingtrendedtoincreasedriskforpretermbirth– “Publicationbiasmayaffecttheresultsofthisstudy,butwebelieveitscontributionis
minimal…despitethepossibleexistenceofsomepublicationbias,thepooledestimateislikelyavalidestimateofthetrueunderlyingeffect.”
1.McIntoshID.Smokingandpregnancy.II.Offspringrisks.PublicHealthRev.1984;12:29–63.2.ShahNRandBrackenMB.Asystematicreviewandmeta-analysisofprospectivestudiesontheassociationbetweenmaternalcigarettesmokingandpretermdelivery.AmJObstet Gynecol.Feb2000;182(2):465–472.
CigaretteSmokingandPretermBirth
• Cigarettesmokingisrecognizedtobeamongthemostprevalent,preventablecausesofadversepregnancyoutcomes.
• Smokingisstronglyrelatedtoplacentalabruption,reducedbirthweight,andinfantmortality
• “Therelationshipofcigarettesmokingtopretermbirthisrathermodestandnotentirelyconsistent.”
• Therangeofoddsratioforstudiesshowingsuchanassociationisfrom1.1-2.Thereareanumberofstudiesshowingnorelationship.Therearesomestudiesshowingaprotectiveeffectofsmoking.
InstituteofMedicine,NationalAcademyofScience,PretermBirth:Causes,Consequences,andPrevention,NationalAcademiesPress,WashingtonDC,2006.
TheDataonAbortionandPretermBirth
• 145statisticallysignificantstudiesdemonstratingtheassociationofpretermbirthwithabortion(1963-Present)
• 26statisticallysignificantstudiesdemonstratingtheassociationofverypretermbirth(<32weeks)orverylowbirthweight(VLBW<1500grams)withabortion(1978-Present)
• Therearestudieswhichfailtoshowanassociationofabortionwithpretermbirthbuttheyaresmall
• Anylargestudywithatleast30,000mothersor500deliveries<33weeksshowsanassociationofabortionandpretermbirth
TheSystematicReviewsandMetaAnalysesExaminingAbortionandPretermBirth
• SystematicReviewsinvolveadetailedandcomprehensiveplanandsearchstrategyderivedapriori,withthegoalofreducingbiasbyidentifying,appraising,andsynthesizingallrelevantstudiesonaparticulartopic.
• SystematicReviewsmayincludeameta-analysis(SRMA)componentwhichinvolvesusingstatisticaltechniquestosynthesizethedatafrommultiplestudiesintoasinglequantitativeestimateorsummaryeffectsize• Swingle HM,Colaizy TT,ZimmermanMB,Morriss FH.Abortionandtheriskofsubsequentpretermbirth:Asystematicreviewwithmeta-analyses.JRreproMed2009;54:95-108.
• ShahPS,Zao J.Inducedterminationofpregnancyandlowbirthweight andpretermbirth:asystematicreviewandmeta-analysis.BJOG2009;116:1425-1442.
Meta-analysisbySwingle,etal2009
• Meta-analysesofliterature1995-2007• Pro-abortion&pro-lifeauthors• 7,891titles,349abstracts,130papers• 30abortion&26SABpapersincluded• Analyzeddatafrom12inducedand9SABpapers
SwingleHM,Colaizy TT,ZimmermanMB,Morriss FH.Abortionandtheriskofsubsequentpretermbirth:Asystematicreviewwithmeta-analyses.JReproMed2009;54:95-108.
Meta-analysisbySwingle,etal2009
• Oneinducedabortionhada1.25adjustedOR[1.03-1.48]increasedriskpretermbirth<37weeks
• >1inducedabortion1.51OR[1.21-1.75]increasedriskpretermbirth<37weeks
• >1inducedabortionORof1.64[1.38-1.91]for<32weekdelivery(VPB)
Meta-analysisbyShahetal2009
• Screened834papers• Excluded765forlackdata/objective• 69citationsreviewed• 32excluded,37included
ShahPS,Zao J.Inducedterminationofpregnancyandlowbirthweight andpretermbirth:asystematicreviewandmeta-analysis.BJOG2009;116:1425-1442.7
Meta-analysisbyShah,etal2009:22PTBStudies
• Noabortionvs1Abortion• 22studies• 268,379patients• OR1.36[1.24-1.50]forPTB
• Noabortionsvs>1Abortion• 7studiesof22• 158,421patients• OR1.93[1.38-2.71]forPTB
Watson,etal:Identifyingriskfactorsforverypretermbirth(20- 31⁶weeks)
• CasecontrolstudyfromAustralia;603casesand796controlsfrom2002-2004
• Findings:• 1abortionOR2.11(1.3,3.4)p<0.002;AOR2.02(1.2,3.3)p<0.004• >1abortionOR4.4(1.9,9.1)p<0.001;AOR3.50(1.6,7.9)p<0.002
Watson LF, Rayner J-A, Forster D. Identifying risk factors for very preterm birth: A reference for clinicians. Midwifery May 2013;29(5):434-439
Hardyetal:Effectofinducedabortionsonearlypretermbirths
• 17,916patients• 2276(13%)hadundergoneonepriorinducedabortion,and862(5%)hadundergonetwoormorepriorinducedabortions.
• Womenwhoreportedonepriorinducedabortionweremorelikelytohaveprematurebirthsby32,28,and26weeks– ORwere1.45(95%CI1.11to1.90),1.71(95%CI1.21to2.42),and2.17(95%CI1.41to3.35),respectively
HardyG1,BenjaminA,Abenhaim HA.Effectofinducedabortionsonearlypretermbirthsandadverseperinataloutcomes.JObstet Gynaecol Can.2013Feb;35(2):138-43.
Klemetti,etal:BirthOutcomesAfterInducedAbortion
• Nationwideregister-basedoutcomesoffirstbirthsinFinland;recordslinkedtooutcomes1996-2008;300,858firsttimemothers
• Controlledforcomorbidities:maternalage,maritalstatus,socioeconomicposition,urbanity,smoking,reproductivehistory;method,timingandindicationofabortion
• Increasedoddsforverypretermbirth(<28weeks)seeninallthesubgroupsexhibitedadose–responserelationship:OneIA1.19,twoIA’s1.69,threeIA’s2.78
Klemetti R, Gissler M, Niinimaki M, Hemminki E. Birth outcomes after induced abortion: a nationwide register-based study of first births in Finland. Human Reproduction 2012 August 29
Klemetti,etal:BirthOutcomesAfterInducedAbortion
• “Intermsofpublichealthandpracticalimplications,healtheducationshouldcontaininformationofthepotentialhealthhazardsofrepeatIAs,includingverypretermbirthandlowbirthweightinsubsequentpregnancies.”
• “HealthcareprofessionalsshouldbeinformedaboutthepotentialrisksofrepeatIAsoninfantoutcomesinsubsequentpregnancy.”
• “Observationalstudieslikeours,howeverlargeandwell-controlled,willnotprovecausality.”
Klemetti R, Gissler M, Niinimaki M, Hemminki E. Birth outcomes after induced abortion: a nationwide register-based study of first births in Finland. Human Reproduction 2012 August 29
AndtheSRMAsKeepComing• Lemmers etal.reviewed21studiesreportingon1,853,017womenwiththehistoryofa
dilatationandcurettage(D&C)procedureforeitherterminationofpregnancyorcompletionofmiscarriage.
• InwomenwithahistoryofD&Ccomparedwiththosewithnosuchhistory,theAORforPTBwas1.29[1.17;1.42],whileforVPBAORwas1.69[1.20-2.38].
• ForwomenwithahistoryofmultipleD&CscomparedwiththosewithnoD&C,theORforPTBwas1.74[1.10-2.76].
• WomenwithapreviousD&C,formiscarriageorterminationofpregnancyinthefirsttrimester,areatincreasedriskforPTBandespeciallyVPBincomparisontowomenwithoutapreviousD&C.
• “Thismeta-analysisshowsthatD&Cisassociatedwithanincreasedriskofsubsequentpretermbirth.TheincreasedriskinassociationwithmultipleD&Csindicatesacausalrelationship.Despitethefactthatconfoundingcannotbeexcluded,thesedatawarrantcautionintheuseofD&Cformiscarriageandterminationofpregnancy,themoresosincelessinvasiveoptionsareavailable.”
Lemmers M,Verschoor MA,HookerAB,Opmeer BC,Limpens J,Huirne JA,AnkumWM,Mol BW.Dilatationandcurettageincreasestheriskofsubsequentpretermbirth:asystematicreviewandmeta-analysis.HumReprod.2016Jan;31(1):34-45.
AndtheSRMAsKeepComing• Saccone etal.included36studies(1,047,683women).• 31studiesonI-TOP,28included913,297womenwithahistoryofsurgicalI-TOP,3included10,253womenwithapriormedicalI-TOP.
• WomenwithapriorsurgicalI-TOPhadahigherriskofPTB(5.4%vs4.4%;OR,1.52,95%CI,1.08–2.16)
• MedicalI-TOPhadasimilarriskofPTBcomparedwiththosewhodidnothaveahistoryofI-TOP(28.2%vs29.5%;OR,1.50,95%CI,1.00–2.25)
• “PriorsurgicaluterineevacuationforeitherI-TOPorSABisanindependentriskfactorforPTB.Thesedatawarrantcautionintheuseofsurgicaluterineevacuationandshouldencouragesafersurgicaltechniquesaswellasmedicalmethods.”
SacconeG,PerrieraL,BerghellaV.Prioruterineevacuationofpregnancyasindependentriskfactorforpretermbirth:asystematicreviewandmetaanalysis.AmJObstet Gynecol.2016May;214(5):572-91.
AbortionandPretermBirth
Ismedicalabortionassociatedwithpretermbirth?
VirkJetal.:Medicalabortionandtheriskofsubsequentadversepregnancyoutcomes
• WomeninDenmarkhavingabortionfornonmedicalreasonsbetween1999-2004• Comparedsurgicaltomedicalfirsttrimesterabortion• 11,814pregnanciesinwomenwithpreviousfirst-trimestermedicalabortion(2710
women)orsurgicalabortion(9104women)– Nocontrolgroupwithoutanabortion– Didnotdescribethespecificsurgicalabortionmethod(surgicalripeningagentsornot)– DidnotanalyzedataforVPB
• “Wefoundnoevidencethatapreviousmedicalabortion,ascomparedwithaprevioussurgicalabortion,increasestheriskofspontaneousabortion,ectopicpregnancy,pretermbirth,orlowbirthweight.”
• Medicalabortionhasthesameriskforsubsequentpretermbirth.
VirkJ,ZhangJandOlsenJ.Medicalabortionandtheriskofsubsequentadversepregnancyoutcomes.NEngl JMed.2007Aug16;357(7):648-53.
Liaoetal:RepeatedMedicalAbortionsandPTB
• Cohortstudy• 4yearsfromJanuary2006-December2009• Interviewbasedwithdeliveryoutcomes• 18,323women(19,527interviewed)(93.8%)• Dividedinto3comparisongroups:
– Nulliparouswomenwith1ormorefirsttrimestermedicalabortions(mifepristone)
– Nulliparouswithsurgicalabortions(elective)– Nulliparouswithnopreviousabortions
LiaoH,WeiQ,Duan L,GeJ,ZhouY,ZengW.Repeatedmedicalabortionsandtheriskofpretermbirthinsubsequentpregnancies.ArchGynecolObstet 2011;289:579-586
Liaoetal:RepeatedMedicalAbortionsandPTB
• Exceptionalfollowup– 7,478withcompletefollowupinabortiongroupoutoforiginal7,558(98.9%)
– 10,546withcompletefollowupinnoabortiongroupoutoforiginal10,681(98.9%)
• FindingsOR1.4(1.1-1.8)pretermbirthwith1surgicalabortion• OR1.62(1.27-3.42)pretermbirth>3surgicalabortions(doseeffect)
• OR2.18(1.51-4.42)pretermbirthwithmedical&surgicalabortionsLiaoH,WeiQ,Duan L,GeJ,ZhouY,ZengW.Repeatedmedicalabortionsandtheriskofpretermbirthinsubsequentpregnancies.ArchGynecolObstet 2011;289:579-586
Liaoetal:RepeatedMedicalAbortionsandPTB• OR1.03(0.53-1.63)noincreaseriskofpretermbirthwithmedicalabortions
comparedtonoabortionsbut…– OR1.4(1.1-1.8)pretermbirthwith1surgicalabortion– OR1.62(1.27-3.42)pretermbirth>3surgicalabortions(doseeffect)– OR2.18(1.51-4.42)pretermbirthwithmedical &surgicalabortions
• And…20.3%ofpatientsneededapost-abortionsuctioncurettage!– OR1.69(1.02-3.16)pretermbirthriskinwomenwithmedicalabortion<7weekswithcurettage
– ORfor<32weekdelivery(VPB)was3.61(1.43-4.93)with<7weekmedicalabortionwithcurettage(20%ofpatients)
• Didnotreporteitherofthesefindingsinabstract
LiaoH,WeiQ,Duan L,GeJ,ZhouY,ZengW.Repeatedmedicalabortionsandtheriskofpretermbirthinsubsequentpregnancies.ArchGynecolObstet 2011;289:579-586
Oliver-Williamsetal:ChangesinAssociationbetweenPreviousTherapeuticAbortionandPretermBirthin
Scotland• Historicalcohortstudyof732,719firstbirths>24weeks• Pretermdelivery<37weeksdeclinedovertime• Surgicalwithoutuseofcervicalpre-treatmentdecreasedfrom31%to0.4%;medicalabortionsincreasedfrom18%to68%duringthisperiod
• Previousabortionassociatedwithpretermbirthmostprevalent1980-1983(OR1.32[1.21–1.43]);overallOR(1.12[1.09–1.16])
Oliver-WilliamsC,FlemingM,Monteath K.,WoodAM,SmithGCS.ChangesinAssociationbetweenPreviousTherapeuticAbortionandPretermBirthinScotland,1980to2008:AHistoricalCohortStudy.PLOSJuly2013;10(7:1-11)
Oliver-Williamsetal:Changesinassociationofabortionandpretermbirth:Scotland1980-2008
Oliver-WilliamsC,FlemingM,Monteath K.,WoodAM,SmithGCS.ChangesinAssociationbetweenPreviousTherapeuticAbortionandPretermBirthinScotland,1980to2008:AHistoricalCohortStudy.PLOSJuly2013;10(7:1-11)
Oliver-WilliamsC,FlemingM,Monteath K.,WoodAM,SmithGCS.ChangesinAssociationbetweenPreviousTherapeuticAbortionandPretermBirthinScotland,1980to2008:AHistoricalCohortStudy.PLOSJuly2013;10(7:1-11)
Oliver-Williamsetal:ChangesinAssociationofAbortionandPretermBirthinScotland
Oliver-Williamsetal:Changesinassociationofabortionandpretermbirth:Scotland1980-2008
• “Wespeculate thatchangesinthemethodsusedtoachieveterminationofpregnancyarethemostplausibleexplanationforthelossoftheassociationbetweenpreviousabortionandthesubsequentriskofpretermbirth….Theaboveinterpretationassumesacausalassociationbetweensurgicalabortionwithoutcervicalpre-treatmentandpretermbirth,andthereareanumberofaspectsofthecurrentanalysisthataresupportiveofacausalrelation.”
• Theresearcherscouldnotdirectlytestwhetherthetrendstheynotewererelatedbecausetheydidnothaveinformationonthemethodofpreviousterminationlinkedtosubsequentbirthoutcomeforindividualwomen
SoIsMedicalAbortionWithoutRiskForFuturePretermBirth?
• InSeptember2000,theU.S.FoodandDrugAdministrationapprovedmifepristonetobemarketedintheUnitedStatesasanalternativetosurgicalabortion.
• Whileadmittingthatsurgicalabortionincreasestheriskforpretermbirth,someproponentsofmedicalabortionadvancethetheorythatinjuryfromsurgicalabortionisthereasonabortionhasincreasedpretermbirthrisk
• Thisisanassumptionnotsupportedbycurrentresearch• Ifthisconclusionwastruewearestillleftwiththefactthat77%ofabortionsintheUnitedStatesin2011weresurgical
JonesRKandJerman J.AbortionincidenceandserviceavailabilityintheUnitedStates,2011.PerspectivesonSexualandReproductiveHealth,2014,46(1):3-14
PathophysiologyofAbortionandPretermBirth
• Cervicaltraumaandinjury• Inductionoforpredispositiontoinflammation• Maternalstress• Unknownfactors
ImpactofMedicalAbortion:MifepristoneandtheCervix
• SuddenlossofprogesteronefunctionuponRU486administrationdiffersfromthemoregradualwithdrawalofprogesteroneoccurringduringnormaltermbirth
• Up-regulateMetalMetalloprotein-9(MMP-9)release,degradesvascularbasementmembrane
• ThisinconjunctionwithreleaseofchemokinesincludingMCP-1andIL-8,favorsaccumulationofinfiltratingleukocytes,specificallyneutrophils,monocytesandmastcells
• ReleaseofcollagenasesMMP-1andMMP-8bystromalcellspromoteremodelingandlooseningofcervicalconnectivetissuestroma.
• ResultsinacombinationofprematureactivationofprocessesinvolvedintermripeningaswellasapartialactivationofresidentneutrophilsandmacrophagessimilartothePPrepairphaseofcervicalremodeling.
• MifepristoneinmousecervixupregulatesgenesincludingChi313,Ptgs1(Cox1)…genesofuncertainsignificancebutnotedtobeactiveininflammatorydisorders
1.DenisonFCetal.Theeffectofmifepristoneadministrationonleukocytepopulations,matrixmetalloproteinases andinflammatorymediatorsinthefirsttrimestercervix.Mol HumReprod.2000Jun;6(6):541-8.2.HoltRetal.TheMolecularMechanismsofCervicalRipeningDifferbetweenTermandPretermBirth.Endocrinology.Mar2011;152(3):1036–1046.
ImpactofMedicalAbortion:MifepristoneandtheCervix
MifepristoneAdministration
✓
RiskofChorioamnionitis AfterPriorAbortion
• Muhlemann etal.1– Athreefoldelevatedriskforbothinducedandspontaneousabortion
• Krohn etal.2– Womenwithspontaneousabortion(oddsratio=4.3;95%confidenceinterval2.9to6.4)orelectivetermination(oddsratio=4.0;95%confidenceinterval2.7to5.8)hadanincreasedriskofintraamnioticinfection.
1. Muhlemann K.etal.DoesanAbortionIncreasetheRiskofIntrapartum InfectionintheFollowingPregnancy?Epidemiology.1996:7(2):194-198.
2. Krohn M.etal.Priorpregnancyoutcomeandtheriskofintraamniotic infectioninthefollowingpregnancy.AmJObst Gyn.1998;178(2):381–385
BradfordHillCriteria
• InhispresidentialaddressbeforetheRoyalSocietyofMedicinein1965,BradfordHillnotedthefollowing9conditionsthathelpstrengthencausalinferenceforanobservedassociation:strengthoftheassociation,consistency,specificity,temporality,doseresponse,plausibility,coherence,experiment,andanalogy.
• TheUSSurgeonGeneralappliedthenewlydevelopedBradfordHillcriteriaforcausalitytothecigarette-lungcancerlinkepidemiologicstudiestowarnthepublic
HillAB."Theenvironmentanddisease:associationorcausation?"inBullWorldHealthOrgan,volume83onpage796.
BradfordHill:Abortion,SmokingandPretermBirth
• Timing:Abortionandsmokingoccurbeforepretermbirth• Doseeffect:Demonstratedforabortion,lessapparentforsmoking
• Consistencyofeffect:Yesforabortion,notsmoking– Repeatedlyobservedbydifferentinvestigatorsatdifferenttimes
• Strengthofassociation:Abortionhasaveryspecificassociationwithverypretermbirth
• Biologicalplausibility:Abortionyes,smokinguncertain
HillAB."Theenvironmentanddisease:associationorcausation?"inBullWorldHealthOrgan,volume83onpage796.
AndCautionfromProfessorHill• “Noneofmynineviewpointscanbringindisputableevidencefororagainstthecause-and-effecthypothesisandnonecanberequiredasasinequanon.Whattheycando,withgreaterorlessstrength,istohelpustomakeupourmindsonthefundamentalquestion- isthereanyotherwayofexplainingthesetoffactsbeforeus,isthereanyotheranswerequally,ormorelikely,thancauseandeffect?”
• “Allscientificworkisincomplete– whetheritbeobservationalorexperimental.Allscientificworkisliabletobeupsetormodifiedbyadvancingknowledge.Thatdoesnotconferuponusafreedomtoignoretheknowledgewealreadyhave,ortopostponetheactionthatitappearstodemandatagiventime.“
• “Whoknows,askedRobertBrowning,buttheworldmayendtonight?True,butonavailableevidencemostofusmakereadytocommuteonthe8:30nextday.”
HillAB."Theenvironmentanddisease:associationorcausation?"inBullWorldHealthOrgan,volume83onpage796.
AbidingtheWisdomofProfessorHill• Dr.JayIams:“Contrarytocommonbelief,population-basedstudieshavefoundthat
electivepregnancyterminationsinthefirstandsecondtrimestersareassociatedwithaverysmallbutapparentlyrealincreaseintheriskofsubsequentspontaneouspretermbirth.”1
• Dr.PhilSteer:“Akeyfindingisthatcomparedtowomenwithnohistoryoftermination,evenallowingfortheexpectedhigherincidenceofsocio-economicdisadvantage,womenwithjustoneTOP(terminationofpregnancy)hadanincreasedoddsofsubsequentpretermbirth.Wehaveknownforalongtimethatrepeatedterminationspredisposetoearlydeliveryinasubsequentpregnancy.Howeverthefindingthatevenoneterminationcanincreasetheriskofpretermbirthmeansthatweshouldcontinuetosearchforwaysofmakingterminationlesstraumatic.2
• OliverWilliamsetal.:“Inconclusion,wehaveshownthatpreviousabortionwasariskfactorforpretermbirthamongnulliparouswomeninScotlandpriorto2000.”3
1. IamsJDandBerghella V.Careforwomenwithpriorpretermbirth.AmJObstet Gynecol.2010;203(2):89–100.2. Steer,P.(2009),EditorsChoiceBJOG:AnInternationalJournalofObstetrics&Gynaecology.2009;116(11):i–ii.3. Oliver-WilliamsCetal.ChangesinAssociationbetweenPreviousTherapeuticAbortionandPretermBirthinScotland,1980to2008:AHistoricalCohort
Study.PLOSJuly2013;10(7:1-11)
AbidingtheWisdomofProfessorHill
• CareofWomenRequestingInducedAbortion– RECOMMENDATION5.12:“Womenshouldbeinformedthatinducedabortionisassociatedwithasmallincreaseintheriskofsubsequentpretermbirth,whichincreaseswiththenumberofabortions.However,thereisinsufficientevidencetoimplycausality.”
PlannedParenthood:RejectingHill’sWisdomandtheRightforWomentobeInformed
• “Therearemanymythsabouttherisksofabortion.Herearethefacts.Abortiondoesnotcausebreastcancer.Safe,uncomplicatedabortiondoesnotcauseproblemsforfuturepregnanciessuchasbirthdefects,prematurebirthorlowbirthweightbabies,ectopicpregnancy,miscarriage,orinfantdeath.”
http://www.plannedparenthood.org/health-info/pregnancy/pregnant-now-what/thinking-about-abortion
ACOG:IgnoresHillCriteria
Pediatrics:DismissingtheHillCriteria• “Theconsequencesofpretermdeliveryareoftensevere,andtheauthorsarepassionatein
theirplea,astheyhavebeeninmultipleotherpublicationsandinthelaypressinNorthCarolina.However,IamnotsurethatPediatricsisthebestforumtohighlighttheirconcerns.”
• “First,whiletheycite2well-donesystematicreviewsandmeta-analyses(Swingle 2009andShah2009),otherauthorscontendthatfirst-trimestersurgicalabortionsand(astheauthorsherealsostate)medically-inducedabortionsconferlittleriskoffuturepretermdeliveries(VirkandZhou).“
• “Anyapproachtohealththatreducesriskofpretermbirthisimportant.However,yourdiscussionappearstoassumethatwomenareroutinelyusingabortionasbirthcontrolwhichdemonstratesaprofoundmisunderstandingandlackofempathyregardingwomen¹sreproductivedecisionmaking.”
TheAbortion-PretermBirthAssociation:AnOpportunitytoReduceInfantMortality…2014
Pediatrics:DismissingtheHillCriteria• "Therecommendationtolettheteenknowatthistimeaboutapossibleassociationof
abortionwithfuturepretermbirthandaboutallthepotentiallydireconsequencesofpretermbirth,hasastrongflavorofa‘righttolife’messagethatisnotrelevanttoorsupportiveoftheteen¹sdecisionmaking.“
• “Doyoubelievethatadiscussionaboutabortionrisksshouldbepartofroutinehealthmaintenancecounselingforteens?Manyproviderswouldrespectfullydisagree.Familiesandteensdonotneedtobeconvincedthatabortionisanegativechoice.TimeincounselingwouldlikelybebetterspentaddressingLARC(longactingreversiblecontraception),condomuse,andemergencycontraception,aswellasdatesafetyandintimatepartnerrelationships.”
• “Wedonotproscribewhatreviewersdointermsofbackgroundworkfortheirreview(nordootherpeerreviewjournalsasfarasIamaware)butasstatedpreviously,theissuesyouhaveraisedhavemadeandwillcontinuetomakeforimportanteditorialboarddiscussionsgoingforward.Thankyouagainforraisingtheseissuesforoureditorialboardtodiscuss.”
TheAbortion-PretermBirthAssociation:AnOpportunitytoReduceInfantMortality…2014
AbortionDemographicsGuttmacher2014
https://www.guttmacher.org/fact-sheet/induced-abortion-united-states
EstimatingImpactofAbortiononVPB• Nopubliclyavailablereportingofabortionhistorypriortobirth• Theimpactcanonlybeestimated• Calhounetal.reportedonthecostconsequencesofabortiononVPBin2007(for2002data)…31.5%ofVPBassociatedwithabortion
• Estimatenumbersofwomengivingbirthwithapriorabortion– Useknownabortionratesinapopulationwithhighlikelihoodoffuturepregnancy
– Estimate%ofthosewomenwithoneormultiplepriorabortions– AssignrelativeriskforfutureVPBforoneormultipleabortions– Calculate%ofVPBsbirthsimpactedbyabortion– Calculatesubgroupimpactsbasedonknowndifferencesinabortionratesinthosecommunities
• #VPBs,deaths,morbiditiesforverypretermbirths
CalhounBC,Shadigian E,RooneyB.JReprod Med.Costconsequencesofinducedabortionasanattributableriskforpretermbirthandimpactoninformedconsent.2007Oct;52(10):929-37.
EstimatingImpactofAbortiononVPB• 2010aconveniencesampleyearbasedonareportissuedbyGuttamcherexaminingteenpregnancyoutcomesin2010.1
• AllestimationsarebasedonmodelofCalhounetal.2• In2010theaverageageoffirstbirthwas25.2years.Basedonthis,theabortionratefor15-24yearoldsisusedhereasconservativerepresentativeofthegroupofwomenmostlikelytohaveanabortionbeforealivebirth.
• Presumeallinducedabortionsaresurgicalinthisanalysis– Givenuntil2000,nomedicalabortions– MostUSabortionsstillsurgical(69%)perGuttmacher for2014– NotclearlyestablishedthatmedicalabortionimposeslessriskforafutureVPB– 2-5%ofinducedmedicalabortionsrequiresurgicalcompletion
1. Kost KandHenshawS.U.S.TeenagePregnancies,BirthsandAbortions,2010:NationalandStateTrendsbyAge,RaceandEthnicity.GuttmacherInstitute.May2014.
2. CalhounBC,Shadigian E,RooneyB.JReprod Med.Costconsequencesofinducedabortionasanattributableriskforpretermbirthandimpactoninformedconsent.2007Oct;52(10):929-37.
EstimatingImpactofAbortiononVPB• 15-24yearoldexperiencingalivebirthwithatleastonepriorabortionisthesumof
thegroupratesexpressedasapercentage:5204/1000+130/1000=334/1000=33.4%
o Use30%asreasonableestimateforwomenhavingabirthafteranabortiono Acceptthatsignificantnumbersofwomenwilllaterhaveabortionswhichwillimpact
pretermbirthrisk• Thirtypercentistheestimateforthepercentofwomengivingbirthaftertwoormore
priorabortions.4• TheRRofVPBafter1abortionis1.691• TheRRofVPBafter2ormoreabortionsisestimatedas2.6(averageofHardyand
Martius)2,3• 70%ofwomenwithalivebirthhadnopriorabortionexposureand30%hadatleast
onepriorinducedabortion1. Swingle HM,Colaizy TT,ZimmermanMB,Morriss FH.Abortionandtheriskofsubsequentpretermbirth:Asystematicreviewwithmeta-analyses.JReproMed
2009;54:95-108.2. HardyG1,BenjaminA,Abenhaim HA.Effectofinducedabortionsonearlypretermbirthsandadverseperinataloutcomes..JObstet Gynaecol Can.2013
Feb;35(2):138-433. MartiusJA.isk factorsassociatedwithpreterm(<37+0weeks)andearlypretermbirth(<32+0weeks):univariateandmultivariateanalysisof106 345singleton
birthsfromthe1994statewideperinatalsurveyofBavaria.Eur JObstet Gynecol Reprod Biol.1998Oct;80(2):183-9.4.CohenS.GuttmacherPolicyReview.Spring2007,Volume10,Number25.,JonesRKetal.TrendsinAbortionintheUnitedStates.ClinicalObstetricsandGynecology.2009;52(2):119-129
EstimatingImpactofAbortiononVPB• Ofwomenwithpriorabortionannuallygivingbirth,estimate30%hadtwoormore
priorabortions.Thisrepresents 9%ofthebirths(30%x30%).4• Theremainingwomenwithapriorabortionhadasingleterminationpriortobirth.This
numberis21% (30%-9%)ofthetotalnumberofbirthsafteranyabortion..• OverallexcessUSRRforaVPBattributabletoabortion=
(0.7x1.00)+(0.21x1.64)+(0.09x2.6)=1.28• Excess%ofUSVPBsattributabletopriorabortion=
100%x(1.28-1.0/1.28)=22%• Therewere64,604VPBsin2010,estimate14,212oftheseVPBs(22%)areattributable
toabortion• ExtrapolatingGuttmacher subgroupspecific15-19yo abortionrates,excessVPB%can
becalculated– Hispanicrate211/1000,whiterateof272/1000andblackrateof400/1000.– Usinglowestrateofexposure,Hispanicpregnancies(1x),asabaseline,whitepregnanciesfaceda1.29greaterlikelihoodofanabortion(1.29x)andblackteenpregnanciesa1.9greaterlikelihoodofpriorabortionexposure(1.9x)
EstimatingImpactofAbortiononVPB• Applyingtheexcess%ofVPBduetoabortiontohistoricalnumbersofVPBs,thenumberofVPBsassociatedwithABforeachsubgroupcanbecalculated:
1x+1.29x+1.9x=14,212X=3,392
• Byrace,basedonbestestimatesand2010data,theannualnumberofabortionattributableexcessVPBs:
•TotalVPBs:14,212•HispanicVPBs:3,392(1X)•WhiteVPBs:4,376(1.2X)•BlackVPBs:6,445(1.9X)
CountingtheCostofAbortionandVPB
• ThemortalityratereportedbytheNVSSfor2010forinfants<32weekswas16.7%
• ThenumberofdeathsresultingfromabortionattributableVPBs:– Totaldeaths:2,373(11,839survivors)– Hispanicdeaths:567(2,826survivors)– Whitedeaths:731(3,645survivors)– Blackdeaths:1076(5,369survivors)
NationalVitalStatisticsReports,Vol.61,No.1,August2012
CountingtheCost• NewCerebralPalsyCasesin2010VPBsAttributabletoAbortion
•Totalinfantswithcerebralpalsy:1,657•Hispanicinfantswithcerebralpalsy:396•Whiteinfantswithcerebralpalsy:510•Blackinfantswithcerebralpalsy:752
NewSignificantMentalDelay(MDI<70)Casesin2010VPBsAttributabletoAbortion
•Totalinfantswithsignificantcognitiveimpairment:3,433•Hispanicinfantswithsignificantcognitiveimpairment:820•Whiteinfantswithsignificantcognitiveimpairment:1,057•Blackinfantswithsignificantcognitiveimpairment:1,557
Vohr BR,WrightLL,PooleWK,McDonaldSA.Neurodevelopmentaloutcomesofextremelylowbirthweightinfants<32weeks’gestationbetween1993and1998.Pediatrics.2005Sep;116(3):635-43.
CountingtheCost
• NewBlindnessinatLeastOneEyein2010VPBsAttributabletoAbortion•Totalinfantswithblindness:118•Hispanicinfantswithblindness:28•Whiteinfantswithblindness:36•Blackinfantswithblindness:54
Vohr BR,WrightLL,PooleWK,McDonaldSA.Neurodevelopmentaloutcomesofextremelylowbirthweightinfants<32weeks’gestationbetween1993and1998.Pediatrics.2005Sep;116(3):635-43.
CountingtheCostofVPBsCausedbyAbortionSince1973
625,328VPBsattributabletoabortion
CountingtheCostofVPBsCausedbyAbortionSince1973
102,309Dead
CountingtheCost:TheGruberCalculationofSavingsResultingfromAbortion
• “Wefindthatforthemarginalchildnotbornduetoincreasedabortionaccess…– “Theoddsoflivinginasingleparentfamilywouldhavebeenroughly70percenthigher…
– “Theoddsoflivinginpovertynearly40percenthigher…
– “Theoddsofwelfarereceipt50percenthigher…– “Fromtheseresults,weestimatethatthelegalizationofabortionsavedthefederalgovernmentover$14billioninwelfarepaymentsthrough1994.”
GruberJ,LevinePandStaiger D.AbortionLegalizationandChildLivingCircumstances:WhoistheMarginalChild?NationalBureauofEconomicResearchWorkingPaper6034,1997.
CountingtheFinancialCostofAbortionResultingfromVPB
• 2010Costs(in2016$)forAbortionrelatedVPBinfanthospitalization:– Tricare2016DRGpayments(http://www.tricare.mil/drgrates/)
• Model1:Community(Non-Children’s,Non-ResidencyTrainingHospital)NICUCare
$981,142,551(hospitalcharges)+$245,285,638(profees)=$1,226,428,188• Model2:CommunityNICU(80%care)andChildren’sHospital(20%care)
$784,914,041(Community)+$283,053,772(Children’sHospital)+$266,991,953(profees)=$1,334,959,766
CountingtheCostofAbortioninVPB
$22,600,000,000
$27,300,000,000
$47,000,000,000
$57,200,,000,000
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Gruber"Benefit"ofAbortion1973-1994
HospitalCostofAbortionRelatedPretermBirth1973-1994
Gruber"Benefit"ofAbortion1973-2014
HospitalCostofAbortionRelatedPretermBirth1973-2014
Gruber"Benefit"ofAbortion1973-1994
HospitalCostofAbortionRelatedPretermBirth1973-1994
Gruber"Benefit"ofAbortion1973-2014
HospitalCostofAbortionRelatedPretermBirth1973-2014
GruberJ,LevinePandStaiger D.AbortionLegalizationandChildLivingCircumstances:WhoistheMarginalChild?NationalBureauofEconomicResearchWorkingPaper6034,1997.
WhatNext?• Medicalprovidersneedtorecognizetheirdutytocreateaninformedconsentprocessfor
womenconsideringabortionthatstatestheriskinducedabortion,especiallysurgicalabortion,imposesforafutureVPB.
• Publichealthorganizationsneedtoaccepttheirresponsibilitytoinformthepublic,astheydidwithsmokinganditsassociationwithPTB,thatabortionismorehighlyassociatedandisacausalfactorforafutureVPB.
• Ideallywomenandmenwouldbemadeawareofthisassociationasapublicservicewhichwouldinformdecisionsbeingmadeprospectivelyregardingsexualactivityandcontraception
• StateandfederalDepartmentsofHealthandHumanServicesandEducationneedtoincorporateintopublicschoolsexeducationcurriculumstheevidencethatinducedabortionisamutableriskfactorforafuturePTB.
• TheCenterforDiseaseControl(CDC),asthestewardsofpublichealthforanationexperiencingapretermbirthepidemic,shouldacknowledgeandeducatethenationregardingtheestablishedscientificriskabortionposesforfuturepretermbirth.
WhatNext?• TheMarchofDimesneedstoincludetheriskthatabortionposesforaVPBaspartoftheireffortsto
reducePTB.ThemissionoftheMarchofDimesis“Wehelpmomshavefull-termpregnanciesandresearchtheproblemsthatthreatenthehealthofbabies.”
• TheAmericanAcademyofPediatrics(AAP)BrightFuturesChildHealthPathwayshouldincludecounselingforadolescentsthatincludeseducationregardingtheriskabortionposesforafuturepretermbirth.
• TheAmericanCongressofObstetriciansandGynecologists(ACOG)shouldfollowtheexampleoftheRoyalCollegeofMedicineandrecognizetheabortion-VPBrisk.
• Researcheffortsarenecessarytoexaminethelongtermimpactofmedicalabortion,andspecificallymifepristone,oncervicalarchitectureandremodeling.
• ItshouldbearesearchprioritytoanalyzetherelationshipbetweenmedicalabortionandfuturePTBandVPB.
• Itshouldbearesearchprioritytoevaluatethepossibleroleof17Alpha-hydroxyprogesteronecaproate (17-P)inpreventingPTBwhenadministeredtomotherswithahistoryofapriorabortion.Thebeliefofsomethatapriorsurgicalabortionisan“immutable”riskfactorforafuturepretermbirthmaybeaninaccurateassumption.Itispossiblethatwith17-Pwemightbeabletomitigatetheriskforfuturepretermbirthforwomenwithanabortionhistory.
RecommendedSources
• IssuesinLawandMedicinehttp://issuesinlawandmedicine.com/• AmericanAcademyofProlifeObGyns (AAPLOG)http://aaplog.org/
– AnnualBullfinchMeeting• September29,30andOctober1,2017• TheCenterforBioethicsandHumanDignity• TrinityInternationalUniversityCampus
• AmericanCollegeofPediatricshttps://www.acpeds.org/• HUSHhttp://hushfilm.com/
“Additionalriskfactorsforpretermbirthreportedinthemedicalliteratureareuterineandcervicalabnormalities,smoking,alcoholconsumption,illicitdruguseduringpregnancyandtheperformanceofdilationandevacuationabortions.
“AccordingtoChapter10ofthemedicaltextbook“AClinician’sGuidetoMedicalandSurgicalAbortion,”theUSreportsthehighestrateofdilationandevacuationabortionsofanywhereintheworld.Dilationandevacuationabortionsaregenerallyconsideredtobesecondandthirdtrimesterprocedures(usedwhenthebabyislargerandthecervixneedstobedilatedwider).However,statestatisticsshowthousandsoffirsttrimesterdilationandevacuationsreportedinMaine,Pennsylvaniaandotherstatesduringthepasttwodecades.”
https://worcestermag.com/2014/05/22/epidemic-preterm-births/23540 LastaccessedApril5,2017.
“Andthat’sasitshouldBe”IfAbortionsWereBananas…
IOMReportonPretermBirth:Causes,Consequences,andPrevention
• “TheprojectthatisthesubjectofthisreportwasapprovedbytheGoverningBoardoftheNationalResearchCouncil,whosemembersaredrawnfromthecouncilsoftheNationalAcademyofSciences,theNationalAcademyofEngineering,andtheInstituteofMedicine.”
• “ThisstudywassupportedbyContractNo.N01-OD-4-2139,TaskOrderNo.145betweentheNationalAcademyofSciencesandtheNationalInstituteforChildHealthandHumanDevelopment,CentersforDiseaseControlandPrevention,HealthResourcesandServicesAdministration,EnvironmentalProtectionAgency,andNIHOfficeofResearchonWomen’sHealth.”
InstituteofMedicine,NationalAcademyofScience,PretermBirth:Causes,Consequences,andPrevention,NationalAcademiesPress,WashingtonDC,2006.
Zhou:RiskFactorsforPPROMinChineseWomenfromUrbanCities.
Historyofadversepregnancyoutcomes
34-36Weeks PValue 28-33Weeks P Value <28Weeks PValue
1inducedabortion
1.03(0.93–1.16) 0.504 1.08(0.93–
1.26) 0.323 1.65(1.05–2.57) 0.029
2inducedabortions
1.17(1.07–1.29) 0.221 1.21(1.01–
1.33) 0.163 2.66(1.78–3.96) < 0.001
≥ 3inducedabortions
1.27(1.11–1.47) 0.051 1.37(1.12–
1.67) 0.002 2.75(1.66–4.56) < 0.001
ZhouQetal.RiskfactorsforpretermprematureruptureofmembranesinChinesewomenfromurbancities.Int JGynaecolObstet.2014Dec;127(3):254-9.
Zhou:RiskFactorsforPPROM(<37Weeks)inChineseWomenfromUrbanCities.
• Population-based,prospectivestudywasundertakenin14citiesinChina2011-2012.Womenrecruitedattheirfirstprenatal-carevisit
• 112,439womenincludedinanalyses,3077(2.7%)hadPPROM• Didnotdiscriminatebetweenmedicalandsurgicalabortionbut• “Apossibleexplanationfortheassociationcouldbeatendencyforincreasedsystemicinflammationandstimulationoftheinfectionpathwayinwomenwhohavehadaninducedabortion.”
• LikelyatleasthalfofChineseabortionsnowmedical
1.ZhouQetal.RiskfactorsforpretermprematureruptureofmembranesinChinesewomenfromurbancities.Int JGynaecol Obstet.2014Dec;127(3):254-9.2.XiaW1,SheS,LamTH.MedicalversussurgicalabortionmethodsforpregnancyinChina:acost-minimizationanalysis.
GynecolObstet Invest.2011;72(4):257-63.