Preterm Birth and Abortion 2 · 2017-07-25 · • Over the last two decades, the percentage of...

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The Burden of Abortion and the Preterm Birth Crisis MJ McCaffrey, MD, CAPT USN (Ret) Professor of Pediatrics Division of Neonatal-Perinatal Medicine Department of Pediatrics University of North Carolina School of Medicine Presented at Massachusetts Citizens for Life Convention, April 8, 2017

Transcript of Preterm Birth and Abortion 2 · 2017-07-25 · • Over the last two decades, the percentage of...

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TheBurdenofAbortionandthePretermBirthCrisis

MJMcCaffrey,MD,CAPTUSN(Ret)ProfessorofPediatrics

DivisionofNeonatal-PerinatalMedicineDepartmentofPediatrics

UniversityofNorthCarolinaSchoolofMedicine

PresentedatMassachusettsCitizensforLifeConvention,April8,2017

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Itinerary

• Thepretermbirthepidemic• Areallassociationsequalinthepretermbirthdiscussion?

– Smokingandsurgicalabortion• Theevidencefortheassociations• Istheabortionassociationmootinaneraofmedicalabortion?• Estimatingtheimpactofabortiononverypretermbirths• Countingthecostofabortion’simpactonVPB• Whatthen?

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ThePretermBirthCrisis• In2015,9.6%ofallbabiesbornintheUnitedStatesarebornpreterm• Overthelasttwodecades,thepercentageofpre-termdeliverieshasrisen20percent• PretermbirthvsLBW

– Prematurity,definedasabirthpriorto37weeks– LBW<2500gramsor5lbs 8oz

• .• In201563,000USbirthsareclassifiedasVeryPretermBirths(VPBs):<32weeks.• VPBsconstitute1.6%ofallbirthsintheUS• Thesebirthsassociatedwiththehighestriskfordeathandmorbidity

– RespiratoryDistressSyndromeandChronicLungdisease– Necrotizingenterocolitis– Intraventricular Hemorrhage(IVH)orbrainbleeding– Blindness– Hearingloss– Mentalretardation– CerebralPalsy

• TheestimatedannualcostforcareattributabletopretermbirthintheUnitedStatesis$26billion

InstituteofMedicine,NationalAcademyofScience,PretermBirth:Causes,Consequences,andPrevention,NationalAcademiesPress,WashingtonDC,2006.

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PretermBirthTrends

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IOMReportonPretermBirth:Causes,Consequences,andPrevention

• Establishedin1970bytheNationalAcademyofSciencestosecuretheservicesofeminentmembersofappropriateprofessionsintheexaminationofpolicymatterspertainingtothehealthofthepublic.

• TheIOMactsundertheresponsibilitygiventotheNationalAcademyofSciencesbyitscongressionalchartertobeanadvisertothefederalgovernment.

• ThemajorityofIOMstudiesandotheractivitiesarerequestedandfundedbythefederalgovernment.

InstituteofMedicine,NationalAcademyofScience,PretermBirth:Causes,Consequences,andPrevention,NationalAcademiesPress,WashingtonDC,2006.

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PerIOM:“ImmutableRiskFactors”AssociatedWithPretermBirth

• Previouslowbirthweightorpretermdelivery• Multiple2ndtrimesterspontaneousabortion• Priorfirsttrimesterinducedabortion• Familialandintergenerationalfactors• Placentalabnormalities• Cervicalanduterineanomalies• Inuterodiethylstilbestrolexposure• Multiplegestations• Infantsex• Shortstature• Lowprepregnancy weight/lowbodymassindex• Urogenitalinfections• Preeclampsia

InstituteofMedicine,NationalAcademyofScience,PretermBirth:Causes,Consequences,andPrevention.NationalAcademiesPress,WashingtonDC,2006:AppendixB,TableB-5,p625.

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PerIOM:PossiblyMutableRiskFactorsAssociatedWithPretermBirth

• Cigarettesmoking• Noorinadequateprenatalcareusage• Useofmarijuanaandotherillicitdrugs• Cocaineuse• Alcoholconsumption• Caffeineintake• Maternalweightgain• Dietaryintake• Sexualactivityduringlatepregnancy• Leisure-timephysicalactivities

InstituteofMedicine,NationalAcademyofScience,PretermBirth:Causes,Consequences,andPrevention,NationalAcademiesPress,WashingtonDC,2006.

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ReportoftheAdvisoryCommitteetotheSurgeonGeneraloftheUnitedStates:1964

“Fiveretrospectiveandtwoprospectivestudieshaveshownanassociationbetweenmaternalsmokingduringpregnancyandbirthweightoftheinfant.Womensmokingduringpregnancyhavebabiesoflowerbirthweightthannon-smokersofthesamesocialclass.Theyhavealsoasignificantlygreaternumberofprematuredeliveries(definedasbirthweightof2,500gramsorless)thanthenon-smokingcontrols.”

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CigaretteSmokingandPretermBirth:1985

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TheDataonSmokingandPretermBirth– A1984metaanalysiswhichexamined5studies,usedunadjustedoddsratios1– Sinceonesystematicreviewmetaanalysisofgoodquality2– Pooledpointestimateforanymaternalsmokingversusnomaternalsmokingwas1.27(95%

confidenceinterval,1.21-1.33)– Noneofthestudiesincludedpriorabortionasavariable– Heaviersmokingtrendedtoincreasedriskforpretermbirth– “Publicationbiasmayaffecttheresultsofthisstudy,butwebelieveitscontributionis

minimal…despitethepossibleexistenceofsomepublicationbias,thepooledestimateislikelyavalidestimateofthetrueunderlyingeffect.”

1.McIntoshID.Smokingandpregnancy.II.Offspringrisks.PublicHealthRev.1984;12:29–63.2.ShahNRandBrackenMB.Asystematicreviewandmeta-analysisofprospectivestudiesontheassociationbetweenmaternalcigarettesmokingandpretermdelivery.AmJObstet Gynecol.Feb2000;182(2):465–472.

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CigaretteSmokingandPretermBirth

• Cigarettesmokingisrecognizedtobeamongthemostprevalent,preventablecausesofadversepregnancyoutcomes.

• Smokingisstronglyrelatedtoplacentalabruption,reducedbirthweight,andinfantmortality

• “Therelationshipofcigarettesmokingtopretermbirthisrathermodestandnotentirelyconsistent.”

• Therangeofoddsratioforstudiesshowingsuchanassociationisfrom1.1-2.Thereareanumberofstudiesshowingnorelationship.Therearesomestudiesshowingaprotectiveeffectofsmoking.

InstituteofMedicine,NationalAcademyofScience,PretermBirth:Causes,Consequences,andPrevention,NationalAcademiesPress,WashingtonDC,2006.

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TheDataonAbortionandPretermBirth

• 145statisticallysignificantstudiesdemonstratingtheassociationofpretermbirthwithabortion(1963-Present)

• 26statisticallysignificantstudiesdemonstratingtheassociationofverypretermbirth(<32weeks)orverylowbirthweight(VLBW<1500grams)withabortion(1978-Present)

• Therearestudieswhichfailtoshowanassociationofabortionwithpretermbirthbuttheyaresmall

• Anylargestudywithatleast30,000mothersor500deliveries<33weeksshowsanassociationofabortionandpretermbirth

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TheSystematicReviewsandMetaAnalysesExaminingAbortionandPretermBirth

• SystematicReviewsinvolveadetailedandcomprehensiveplanandsearchstrategyderivedapriori,withthegoalofreducingbiasbyidentifying,appraising,andsynthesizingallrelevantstudiesonaparticulartopic.

• SystematicReviewsmayincludeameta-analysis(SRMA)componentwhichinvolvesusingstatisticaltechniquestosynthesizethedatafrommultiplestudiesintoasinglequantitativeestimateorsummaryeffectsize• Swingle HM,Colaizy TT,ZimmermanMB,Morriss FH.Abortionandtheriskofsubsequentpretermbirth:Asystematicreviewwithmeta-analyses.JRreproMed2009;54:95-108.

• ShahPS,Zao J.Inducedterminationofpregnancyandlowbirthweight andpretermbirth:asystematicreviewandmeta-analysis.BJOG2009;116:1425-1442.

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Meta-analysisbySwingle,etal2009

• Meta-analysesofliterature1995-2007• Pro-abortion&pro-lifeauthors• 7,891titles,349abstracts,130papers• 30abortion&26SABpapersincluded• Analyzeddatafrom12inducedand9SABpapers

SwingleHM,Colaizy TT,ZimmermanMB,Morriss FH.Abortionandtheriskofsubsequentpretermbirth:Asystematicreviewwithmeta-analyses.JReproMed2009;54:95-108.

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Meta-analysisbySwingle,etal2009

• Oneinducedabortionhada1.25adjustedOR[1.03-1.48]increasedriskpretermbirth<37weeks

• >1inducedabortion1.51OR[1.21-1.75]increasedriskpretermbirth<37weeks

• >1inducedabortionORof1.64[1.38-1.91]for<32weekdelivery(VPB)

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Meta-analysisbyShahetal2009

• Screened834papers• Excluded765forlackdata/objective• 69citationsreviewed• 32excluded,37included

ShahPS,Zao J.Inducedterminationofpregnancyandlowbirthweight andpretermbirth:asystematicreviewandmeta-analysis.BJOG2009;116:1425-1442.7

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Meta-analysisbyShah,etal2009:22PTBStudies

• Noabortionvs1Abortion• 22studies• 268,379patients• OR1.36[1.24-1.50]forPTB

• Noabortionsvs>1Abortion• 7studiesof22• 158,421patients• OR1.93[1.38-2.71]forPTB

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Watson,etal:Identifyingriskfactorsforverypretermbirth(20- 31⁶weeks)

• CasecontrolstudyfromAustralia;603casesand796controlsfrom2002-2004

• Findings:• 1abortionOR2.11(1.3,3.4)p<0.002;AOR2.02(1.2,3.3)p<0.004• >1abortionOR4.4(1.9,9.1)p<0.001;AOR3.50(1.6,7.9)p<0.002

Watson LF, Rayner J-A, Forster D. Identifying risk factors for very preterm birth: A reference for clinicians. Midwifery May 2013;29(5):434-439

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Hardyetal:Effectofinducedabortionsonearlypretermbirths

• 17,916patients• 2276(13%)hadundergoneonepriorinducedabortion,and862(5%)hadundergonetwoormorepriorinducedabortions.

• Womenwhoreportedonepriorinducedabortionweremorelikelytohaveprematurebirthsby32,28,and26weeks– ORwere1.45(95%CI1.11to1.90),1.71(95%CI1.21to2.42),and2.17(95%CI1.41to3.35),respectively

HardyG1,BenjaminA,Abenhaim HA.Effectofinducedabortionsonearlypretermbirthsandadverseperinataloutcomes.JObstet Gynaecol Can.2013Feb;35(2):138-43.

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Klemetti,etal:BirthOutcomesAfterInducedAbortion

• Nationwideregister-basedoutcomesoffirstbirthsinFinland;recordslinkedtooutcomes1996-2008;300,858firsttimemothers

• Controlledforcomorbidities:maternalage,maritalstatus,socioeconomicposition,urbanity,smoking,reproductivehistory;method,timingandindicationofabortion

• Increasedoddsforverypretermbirth(<28weeks)seeninallthesubgroupsexhibitedadose–responserelationship:OneIA1.19,twoIA’s1.69,threeIA’s2.78

Klemetti R, Gissler M, Niinimaki M, Hemminki E. Birth outcomes after induced abortion: a nationwide register-based study of first births in Finland. Human Reproduction 2012 August 29

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Klemetti,etal:BirthOutcomesAfterInducedAbortion

• “Intermsofpublichealthandpracticalimplications,healtheducationshouldcontaininformationofthepotentialhealthhazardsofrepeatIAs,includingverypretermbirthandlowbirthweightinsubsequentpregnancies.”

• “HealthcareprofessionalsshouldbeinformedaboutthepotentialrisksofrepeatIAsoninfantoutcomesinsubsequentpregnancy.”

• “Observationalstudieslikeours,howeverlargeandwell-controlled,willnotprovecausality.”

Klemetti R, Gissler M, Niinimaki M, Hemminki E. Birth outcomes after induced abortion: a nationwide register-based study of first births in Finland. Human Reproduction 2012 August 29

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AndtheSRMAsKeepComing• Lemmers etal.reviewed21studiesreportingon1,853,017womenwiththehistoryofa

dilatationandcurettage(D&C)procedureforeitherterminationofpregnancyorcompletionofmiscarriage.

• InwomenwithahistoryofD&Ccomparedwiththosewithnosuchhistory,theAORforPTBwas1.29[1.17;1.42],whileforVPBAORwas1.69[1.20-2.38].

• ForwomenwithahistoryofmultipleD&CscomparedwiththosewithnoD&C,theORforPTBwas1.74[1.10-2.76].

• WomenwithapreviousD&C,formiscarriageorterminationofpregnancyinthefirsttrimester,areatincreasedriskforPTBandespeciallyVPBincomparisontowomenwithoutapreviousD&C.

• “Thismeta-analysisshowsthatD&Cisassociatedwithanincreasedriskofsubsequentpretermbirth.TheincreasedriskinassociationwithmultipleD&Csindicatesacausalrelationship.Despitethefactthatconfoundingcannotbeexcluded,thesedatawarrantcautionintheuseofD&Cformiscarriageandterminationofpregnancy,themoresosincelessinvasiveoptionsareavailable.”

Lemmers M,Verschoor MA,HookerAB,Opmeer BC,Limpens J,Huirne JA,AnkumWM,Mol BW.Dilatationandcurettageincreasestheriskofsubsequentpretermbirth:asystematicreviewandmeta-analysis.HumReprod.2016Jan;31(1):34-45.

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AndtheSRMAsKeepComing• Saccone etal.included36studies(1,047,683women).• 31studiesonI-TOP,28included913,297womenwithahistoryofsurgicalI-TOP,3included10,253womenwithapriormedicalI-TOP.

• WomenwithapriorsurgicalI-TOPhadahigherriskofPTB(5.4%vs4.4%;OR,1.52,95%CI,1.08–2.16)

• MedicalI-TOPhadasimilarriskofPTBcomparedwiththosewhodidnothaveahistoryofI-TOP(28.2%vs29.5%;OR,1.50,95%CI,1.00–2.25)

• “PriorsurgicaluterineevacuationforeitherI-TOPorSABisanindependentriskfactorforPTB.Thesedatawarrantcautionintheuseofsurgicaluterineevacuationandshouldencouragesafersurgicaltechniquesaswellasmedicalmethods.”

SacconeG,PerrieraL,BerghellaV.Prioruterineevacuationofpregnancyasindependentriskfactorforpretermbirth:asystematicreviewandmetaanalysis.AmJObstet Gynecol.2016May;214(5):572-91.

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AbortionandPretermBirth

Ismedicalabortionassociatedwithpretermbirth?

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VirkJetal.:Medicalabortionandtheriskofsubsequentadversepregnancyoutcomes

• WomeninDenmarkhavingabortionfornonmedicalreasonsbetween1999-2004• Comparedsurgicaltomedicalfirsttrimesterabortion• 11,814pregnanciesinwomenwithpreviousfirst-trimestermedicalabortion(2710

women)orsurgicalabortion(9104women)– Nocontrolgroupwithoutanabortion– Didnotdescribethespecificsurgicalabortionmethod(surgicalripeningagentsornot)– DidnotanalyzedataforVPB

• “Wefoundnoevidencethatapreviousmedicalabortion,ascomparedwithaprevioussurgicalabortion,increasestheriskofspontaneousabortion,ectopicpregnancy,pretermbirth,orlowbirthweight.”

• Medicalabortionhasthesameriskforsubsequentpretermbirth.

VirkJ,ZhangJandOlsenJ.Medicalabortionandtheriskofsubsequentadversepregnancyoutcomes.NEngl JMed.2007Aug16;357(7):648-53.

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Liaoetal:RepeatedMedicalAbortionsandPTB

• Cohortstudy• 4yearsfromJanuary2006-December2009• Interviewbasedwithdeliveryoutcomes• 18,323women(19,527interviewed)(93.8%)• Dividedinto3comparisongroups:

– Nulliparouswomenwith1ormorefirsttrimestermedicalabortions(mifepristone)

– Nulliparouswithsurgicalabortions(elective)– Nulliparouswithnopreviousabortions

LiaoH,WeiQ,Duan L,GeJ,ZhouY,ZengW.Repeatedmedicalabortionsandtheriskofpretermbirthinsubsequentpregnancies.ArchGynecolObstet 2011;289:579-586

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Liaoetal:RepeatedMedicalAbortionsandPTB

• Exceptionalfollowup– 7,478withcompletefollowupinabortiongroupoutoforiginal7,558(98.9%)

– 10,546withcompletefollowupinnoabortiongroupoutoforiginal10,681(98.9%)

• FindingsOR1.4(1.1-1.8)pretermbirthwith1surgicalabortion• OR1.62(1.27-3.42)pretermbirth>3surgicalabortions(doseeffect)

• OR2.18(1.51-4.42)pretermbirthwithmedical&surgicalabortionsLiaoH,WeiQ,Duan L,GeJ,ZhouY,ZengW.Repeatedmedicalabortionsandtheriskofpretermbirthinsubsequentpregnancies.ArchGynecolObstet 2011;289:579-586

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Liaoetal:RepeatedMedicalAbortionsandPTB• OR1.03(0.53-1.63)noincreaseriskofpretermbirthwithmedicalabortions

comparedtonoabortionsbut…– OR1.4(1.1-1.8)pretermbirthwith1surgicalabortion– OR1.62(1.27-3.42)pretermbirth>3surgicalabortions(doseeffect)– OR2.18(1.51-4.42)pretermbirthwithmedical &surgicalabortions

• And…20.3%ofpatientsneededapost-abortionsuctioncurettage!– OR1.69(1.02-3.16)pretermbirthriskinwomenwithmedicalabortion<7weekswithcurettage

– ORfor<32weekdelivery(VPB)was3.61(1.43-4.93)with<7weekmedicalabortionwithcurettage(20%ofpatients)

• Didnotreporteitherofthesefindingsinabstract

LiaoH,WeiQ,Duan L,GeJ,ZhouY,ZengW.Repeatedmedicalabortionsandtheriskofpretermbirthinsubsequentpregnancies.ArchGynecolObstet 2011;289:579-586

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Oliver-Williamsetal:ChangesinAssociationbetweenPreviousTherapeuticAbortionandPretermBirthin

Scotland• Historicalcohortstudyof732,719firstbirths>24weeks• Pretermdelivery<37weeksdeclinedovertime• Surgicalwithoutuseofcervicalpre-treatmentdecreasedfrom31%to0.4%;medicalabortionsincreasedfrom18%to68%duringthisperiod

• Previousabortionassociatedwithpretermbirthmostprevalent1980-1983(OR1.32[1.21–1.43]);overallOR(1.12[1.09–1.16])

Oliver-WilliamsC,FlemingM,Monteath K.,WoodAM,SmithGCS.ChangesinAssociationbetweenPreviousTherapeuticAbortionandPretermBirthinScotland,1980to2008:AHistoricalCohortStudy.PLOSJuly2013;10(7:1-11)

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Oliver-Williamsetal:Changesinassociationofabortionandpretermbirth:Scotland1980-2008

Oliver-WilliamsC,FlemingM,Monteath K.,WoodAM,SmithGCS.ChangesinAssociationbetweenPreviousTherapeuticAbortionandPretermBirthinScotland,1980to2008:AHistoricalCohortStudy.PLOSJuly2013;10(7:1-11)

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Oliver-WilliamsC,FlemingM,Monteath K.,WoodAM,SmithGCS.ChangesinAssociationbetweenPreviousTherapeuticAbortionandPretermBirthinScotland,1980to2008:AHistoricalCohortStudy.PLOSJuly2013;10(7:1-11)

Oliver-Williamsetal:ChangesinAssociationofAbortionandPretermBirthinScotland

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Oliver-Williamsetal:Changesinassociationofabortionandpretermbirth:Scotland1980-2008

• “Wespeculate thatchangesinthemethodsusedtoachieveterminationofpregnancyarethemostplausibleexplanationforthelossoftheassociationbetweenpreviousabortionandthesubsequentriskofpretermbirth….Theaboveinterpretationassumesacausalassociationbetweensurgicalabortionwithoutcervicalpre-treatmentandpretermbirth,andthereareanumberofaspectsofthecurrentanalysisthataresupportiveofacausalrelation.”

• Theresearcherscouldnotdirectlytestwhetherthetrendstheynotewererelatedbecausetheydidnothaveinformationonthemethodofpreviousterminationlinkedtosubsequentbirthoutcomeforindividualwomen

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SoIsMedicalAbortionWithoutRiskForFuturePretermBirth?

• InSeptember2000,theU.S.FoodandDrugAdministrationapprovedmifepristonetobemarketedintheUnitedStatesasanalternativetosurgicalabortion.

• Whileadmittingthatsurgicalabortionincreasestheriskforpretermbirth,someproponentsofmedicalabortionadvancethetheorythatinjuryfromsurgicalabortionisthereasonabortionhasincreasedpretermbirthrisk

• Thisisanassumptionnotsupportedbycurrentresearch• Ifthisconclusionwastruewearestillleftwiththefactthat77%ofabortionsintheUnitedStatesin2011weresurgical

JonesRKandJerman J.AbortionincidenceandserviceavailabilityintheUnitedStates,2011.PerspectivesonSexualandReproductiveHealth,2014,46(1):3-14

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PathophysiologyofAbortionandPretermBirth

• Cervicaltraumaandinjury• Inductionoforpredispositiontoinflammation• Maternalstress• Unknownfactors

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ImpactofMedicalAbortion:MifepristoneandtheCervix

• SuddenlossofprogesteronefunctionuponRU486administrationdiffersfromthemoregradualwithdrawalofprogesteroneoccurringduringnormaltermbirth

• Up-regulateMetalMetalloprotein-9(MMP-9)release,degradesvascularbasementmembrane

• ThisinconjunctionwithreleaseofchemokinesincludingMCP-1andIL-8,favorsaccumulationofinfiltratingleukocytes,specificallyneutrophils,monocytesandmastcells

• ReleaseofcollagenasesMMP-1andMMP-8bystromalcellspromoteremodelingandlooseningofcervicalconnectivetissuestroma.

• ResultsinacombinationofprematureactivationofprocessesinvolvedintermripeningaswellasapartialactivationofresidentneutrophilsandmacrophagessimilartothePPrepairphaseofcervicalremodeling.

• MifepristoneinmousecervixupregulatesgenesincludingChi313,Ptgs1(Cox1)…genesofuncertainsignificancebutnotedtobeactiveininflammatorydisorders

1.DenisonFCetal.Theeffectofmifepristoneadministrationonleukocytepopulations,matrixmetalloproteinases andinflammatorymediatorsinthefirsttrimestercervix.Mol HumReprod.2000Jun;6(6):541-8.2.HoltRetal.TheMolecularMechanismsofCervicalRipeningDifferbetweenTermandPretermBirth.Endocrinology.Mar2011;152(3):1036–1046.

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ImpactofMedicalAbortion:MifepristoneandtheCervix

MifepristoneAdministration

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RiskofChorioamnionitis AfterPriorAbortion

• Muhlemann etal.1– Athreefoldelevatedriskforbothinducedandspontaneousabortion

• Krohn etal.2– Womenwithspontaneousabortion(oddsratio=4.3;95%confidenceinterval2.9to6.4)orelectivetermination(oddsratio=4.0;95%confidenceinterval2.7to5.8)hadanincreasedriskofintraamnioticinfection.

1. Muhlemann K.etal.DoesanAbortionIncreasetheRiskofIntrapartum InfectionintheFollowingPregnancy?Epidemiology.1996:7(2):194-198.

2. Krohn M.etal.Priorpregnancyoutcomeandtheriskofintraamniotic infectioninthefollowingpregnancy.AmJObst Gyn.1998;178(2):381–385

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BradfordHillCriteria

• InhispresidentialaddressbeforetheRoyalSocietyofMedicinein1965,BradfordHillnotedthefollowing9conditionsthathelpstrengthencausalinferenceforanobservedassociation:strengthoftheassociation,consistency,specificity,temporality,doseresponse,plausibility,coherence,experiment,andanalogy.

• TheUSSurgeonGeneralappliedthenewlydevelopedBradfordHillcriteriaforcausalitytothecigarette-lungcancerlinkepidemiologicstudiestowarnthepublic

HillAB."Theenvironmentanddisease:associationorcausation?"inBullWorldHealthOrgan,volume83onpage796.

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BradfordHill:Abortion,SmokingandPretermBirth

• Timing:Abortionandsmokingoccurbeforepretermbirth• Doseeffect:Demonstratedforabortion,lessapparentforsmoking

• Consistencyofeffect:Yesforabortion,notsmoking– Repeatedlyobservedbydifferentinvestigatorsatdifferenttimes

• Strengthofassociation:Abortionhasaveryspecificassociationwithverypretermbirth

• Biologicalplausibility:Abortionyes,smokinguncertain

HillAB."Theenvironmentanddisease:associationorcausation?"inBullWorldHealthOrgan,volume83onpage796.

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AndCautionfromProfessorHill• “Noneofmynineviewpointscanbringindisputableevidencefororagainstthecause-and-effecthypothesisandnonecanberequiredasasinequanon.Whattheycando,withgreaterorlessstrength,istohelpustomakeupourmindsonthefundamentalquestion- isthereanyotherwayofexplainingthesetoffactsbeforeus,isthereanyotheranswerequally,ormorelikely,thancauseandeffect?”

• “Allscientificworkisincomplete– whetheritbeobservationalorexperimental.Allscientificworkisliabletobeupsetormodifiedbyadvancingknowledge.Thatdoesnotconferuponusafreedomtoignoretheknowledgewealreadyhave,ortopostponetheactionthatitappearstodemandatagiventime.“

• “Whoknows,askedRobertBrowning,buttheworldmayendtonight?True,butonavailableevidencemostofusmakereadytocommuteonthe8:30nextday.”

HillAB."Theenvironmentanddisease:associationorcausation?"inBullWorldHealthOrgan,volume83onpage796.

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AbidingtheWisdomofProfessorHill• Dr.JayIams:“Contrarytocommonbelief,population-basedstudieshavefoundthat

electivepregnancyterminationsinthefirstandsecondtrimestersareassociatedwithaverysmallbutapparentlyrealincreaseintheriskofsubsequentspontaneouspretermbirth.”1

• Dr.PhilSteer:“Akeyfindingisthatcomparedtowomenwithnohistoryoftermination,evenallowingfortheexpectedhigherincidenceofsocio-economicdisadvantage,womenwithjustoneTOP(terminationofpregnancy)hadanincreasedoddsofsubsequentpretermbirth.Wehaveknownforalongtimethatrepeatedterminationspredisposetoearlydeliveryinasubsequentpregnancy.Howeverthefindingthatevenoneterminationcanincreasetheriskofpretermbirthmeansthatweshouldcontinuetosearchforwaysofmakingterminationlesstraumatic.2

• OliverWilliamsetal.:“Inconclusion,wehaveshownthatpreviousabortionwasariskfactorforpretermbirthamongnulliparouswomeninScotlandpriorto2000.”3

1. IamsJDandBerghella V.Careforwomenwithpriorpretermbirth.AmJObstet Gynecol.2010;203(2):89–100.2. Steer,P.(2009),EditorsChoiceBJOG:AnInternationalJournalofObstetrics&Gynaecology.2009;116(11):i–ii.3. Oliver-WilliamsCetal.ChangesinAssociationbetweenPreviousTherapeuticAbortionandPretermBirthinScotland,1980to2008:AHistoricalCohort

Study.PLOSJuly2013;10(7:1-11)

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AbidingtheWisdomofProfessorHill

• CareofWomenRequestingInducedAbortion– RECOMMENDATION5.12:“Womenshouldbeinformedthatinducedabortionisassociatedwithasmallincreaseintheriskofsubsequentpretermbirth,whichincreaseswiththenumberofabortions.However,thereisinsufficientevidencetoimplycausality.”

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PlannedParenthood:RejectingHill’sWisdomandtheRightforWomentobeInformed

• “Therearemanymythsabouttherisksofabortion.Herearethefacts.Abortiondoesnotcausebreastcancer.Safe,uncomplicatedabortiondoesnotcauseproblemsforfuturepregnanciessuchasbirthdefects,prematurebirthorlowbirthweightbabies,ectopicpregnancy,miscarriage,orinfantdeath.”

http://www.plannedparenthood.org/health-info/pregnancy/pregnant-now-what/thinking-about-abortion

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ACOG:IgnoresHillCriteria

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Pediatrics:DismissingtheHillCriteria• “Theconsequencesofpretermdeliveryareoftensevere,andtheauthorsarepassionatein

theirplea,astheyhavebeeninmultipleotherpublicationsandinthelaypressinNorthCarolina.However,IamnotsurethatPediatricsisthebestforumtohighlighttheirconcerns.”

• “First,whiletheycite2well-donesystematicreviewsandmeta-analyses(Swingle 2009andShah2009),otherauthorscontendthatfirst-trimestersurgicalabortionsand(astheauthorsherealsostate)medically-inducedabortionsconferlittleriskoffuturepretermdeliveries(VirkandZhou).“

• “Anyapproachtohealththatreducesriskofpretermbirthisimportant.However,yourdiscussionappearstoassumethatwomenareroutinelyusingabortionasbirthcontrolwhichdemonstratesaprofoundmisunderstandingandlackofempathyregardingwomen¹sreproductivedecisionmaking.”

TheAbortion-PretermBirthAssociation:AnOpportunitytoReduceInfantMortality…2014

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Pediatrics:DismissingtheHillCriteria• "Therecommendationtolettheteenknowatthistimeaboutapossibleassociationof

abortionwithfuturepretermbirthandaboutallthepotentiallydireconsequencesofpretermbirth,hasastrongflavorofa‘righttolife’messagethatisnotrelevanttoorsupportiveoftheteen¹sdecisionmaking.“

• “Doyoubelievethatadiscussionaboutabortionrisksshouldbepartofroutinehealthmaintenancecounselingforteens?Manyproviderswouldrespectfullydisagree.Familiesandteensdonotneedtobeconvincedthatabortionisanegativechoice.TimeincounselingwouldlikelybebetterspentaddressingLARC(longactingreversiblecontraception),condomuse,andemergencycontraception,aswellasdatesafetyandintimatepartnerrelationships.”

• “Wedonotproscribewhatreviewersdointermsofbackgroundworkfortheirreview(nordootherpeerreviewjournalsasfarasIamaware)butasstatedpreviously,theissuesyouhaveraisedhavemadeandwillcontinuetomakeforimportanteditorialboarddiscussionsgoingforward.Thankyouagainforraisingtheseissuesforoureditorialboardtodiscuss.”

TheAbortion-PretermBirthAssociation:AnOpportunitytoReduceInfantMortality…2014

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AbortionDemographicsGuttmacher2014

https://www.guttmacher.org/fact-sheet/induced-abortion-united-states

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EstimatingImpactofAbortiononVPB• Nopubliclyavailablereportingofabortionhistorypriortobirth• Theimpactcanonlybeestimated• Calhounetal.reportedonthecostconsequencesofabortiononVPBin2007(for2002data)…31.5%ofVPBassociatedwithabortion

• Estimatenumbersofwomengivingbirthwithapriorabortion– Useknownabortionratesinapopulationwithhighlikelihoodoffuturepregnancy

– Estimate%ofthosewomenwithoneormultiplepriorabortions– AssignrelativeriskforfutureVPBforoneormultipleabortions– Calculate%ofVPBsbirthsimpactedbyabortion– Calculatesubgroupimpactsbasedonknowndifferencesinabortionratesinthosecommunities

• #VPBs,deaths,morbiditiesforverypretermbirths

CalhounBC,Shadigian E,RooneyB.JReprod Med.Costconsequencesofinducedabortionasanattributableriskforpretermbirthandimpactoninformedconsent.2007Oct;52(10):929-37.

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EstimatingImpactofAbortiononVPB• 2010aconveniencesampleyearbasedonareportissuedbyGuttamcherexaminingteenpregnancyoutcomesin2010.1

• AllestimationsarebasedonmodelofCalhounetal.2• In2010theaverageageoffirstbirthwas25.2years.Basedonthis,theabortionratefor15-24yearoldsisusedhereasconservativerepresentativeofthegroupofwomenmostlikelytohaveanabortionbeforealivebirth.

• Presumeallinducedabortionsaresurgicalinthisanalysis– Givenuntil2000,nomedicalabortions– MostUSabortionsstillsurgical(69%)perGuttmacher for2014– NotclearlyestablishedthatmedicalabortionimposeslessriskforafutureVPB– 2-5%ofinducedmedicalabortionsrequiresurgicalcompletion

1. Kost KandHenshawS.U.S.TeenagePregnancies,BirthsandAbortions,2010:NationalandStateTrendsbyAge,RaceandEthnicity.GuttmacherInstitute.May2014.

2. CalhounBC,Shadigian E,RooneyB.JReprod Med.Costconsequencesofinducedabortionasanattributableriskforpretermbirthandimpactoninformedconsent.2007Oct;52(10):929-37.

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EstimatingImpactofAbortiononVPB• 15-24yearoldexperiencingalivebirthwithatleastonepriorabortionisthesumof

thegroupratesexpressedasapercentage:5204/1000+130/1000=334/1000=33.4%

o Use30%asreasonableestimateforwomenhavingabirthafteranabortiono Acceptthatsignificantnumbersofwomenwilllaterhaveabortionswhichwillimpact

pretermbirthrisk• Thirtypercentistheestimateforthepercentofwomengivingbirthaftertwoormore

priorabortions.4• TheRRofVPBafter1abortionis1.691• TheRRofVPBafter2ormoreabortionsisestimatedas2.6(averageofHardyand

Martius)2,3• 70%ofwomenwithalivebirthhadnopriorabortionexposureand30%hadatleast

onepriorinducedabortion1. Swingle HM,Colaizy TT,ZimmermanMB,Morriss FH.Abortionandtheriskofsubsequentpretermbirth:Asystematicreviewwithmeta-analyses.JReproMed

2009;54:95-108.2. HardyG1,BenjaminA,Abenhaim HA.Effectofinducedabortionsonearlypretermbirthsandadverseperinataloutcomes..JObstet Gynaecol Can.2013

Feb;35(2):138-433. MartiusJA.isk factorsassociatedwithpreterm(<37+0weeks)andearlypretermbirth(<32+0weeks):univariateandmultivariateanalysisof106 345singleton

birthsfromthe1994statewideperinatalsurveyofBavaria.Eur JObstet Gynecol Reprod Biol.1998Oct;80(2):183-9.4.CohenS.GuttmacherPolicyReview.Spring2007,Volume10,Number25.,JonesRKetal.TrendsinAbortionintheUnitedStates.ClinicalObstetricsandGynecology.2009;52(2):119-129

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EstimatingImpactofAbortiononVPB• Ofwomenwithpriorabortionannuallygivingbirth,estimate30%hadtwoormore

priorabortions.Thisrepresents 9%ofthebirths(30%x30%).4• Theremainingwomenwithapriorabortionhadasingleterminationpriortobirth.This

numberis21% (30%-9%)ofthetotalnumberofbirthsafteranyabortion..• OverallexcessUSRRforaVPBattributabletoabortion=

(0.7x1.00)+(0.21x1.64)+(0.09x2.6)=1.28• Excess%ofUSVPBsattributabletopriorabortion=

100%x(1.28-1.0/1.28)=22%• Therewere64,604VPBsin2010,estimate14,212oftheseVPBs(22%)areattributable

toabortion• ExtrapolatingGuttmacher subgroupspecific15-19yo abortionrates,excessVPB%can

becalculated– Hispanicrate211/1000,whiterateof272/1000andblackrateof400/1000.– Usinglowestrateofexposure,Hispanicpregnancies(1x),asabaseline,whitepregnanciesfaceda1.29greaterlikelihoodofanabortion(1.29x)andblackteenpregnanciesa1.9greaterlikelihoodofpriorabortionexposure(1.9x)

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EstimatingImpactofAbortiononVPB• Applyingtheexcess%ofVPBduetoabortiontohistoricalnumbersofVPBs,thenumberofVPBsassociatedwithABforeachsubgroupcanbecalculated:

1x+1.29x+1.9x=14,212X=3,392

• Byrace,basedonbestestimatesand2010data,theannualnumberofabortionattributableexcessVPBs:

•TotalVPBs:14,212•HispanicVPBs:3,392(1X)•WhiteVPBs:4,376(1.2X)•BlackVPBs:6,445(1.9X)

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CountingtheCostofAbortionandVPB

• ThemortalityratereportedbytheNVSSfor2010forinfants<32weekswas16.7%

• ThenumberofdeathsresultingfromabortionattributableVPBs:– Totaldeaths:2,373(11,839survivors)– Hispanicdeaths:567(2,826survivors)– Whitedeaths:731(3,645survivors)– Blackdeaths:1076(5,369survivors)

NationalVitalStatisticsReports,Vol.61,No.1,August2012

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CountingtheCost• NewCerebralPalsyCasesin2010VPBsAttributabletoAbortion

•Totalinfantswithcerebralpalsy:1,657•Hispanicinfantswithcerebralpalsy:396•Whiteinfantswithcerebralpalsy:510•Blackinfantswithcerebralpalsy:752

NewSignificantMentalDelay(MDI<70)Casesin2010VPBsAttributabletoAbortion

•Totalinfantswithsignificantcognitiveimpairment:3,433•Hispanicinfantswithsignificantcognitiveimpairment:820•Whiteinfantswithsignificantcognitiveimpairment:1,057•Blackinfantswithsignificantcognitiveimpairment:1,557

Vohr BR,WrightLL,PooleWK,McDonaldSA.Neurodevelopmentaloutcomesofextremelylowbirthweightinfants<32weeks’gestationbetween1993and1998.Pediatrics.2005Sep;116(3):635-43.

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CountingtheCost

• NewBlindnessinatLeastOneEyein2010VPBsAttributabletoAbortion•Totalinfantswithblindness:118•Hispanicinfantswithblindness:28•Whiteinfantswithblindness:36•Blackinfantswithblindness:54

Vohr BR,WrightLL,PooleWK,McDonaldSA.Neurodevelopmentaloutcomesofextremelylowbirthweightinfants<32weeks’gestationbetween1993and1998.Pediatrics.2005Sep;116(3):635-43.

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CountingtheCostofVPBsCausedbyAbortionSince1973

625,328VPBsattributabletoabortion

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CountingtheCostofVPBsCausedbyAbortionSince1973

102,309Dead

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CountingtheCost:TheGruberCalculationofSavingsResultingfromAbortion

• “Wefindthatforthemarginalchildnotbornduetoincreasedabortionaccess…– “Theoddsoflivinginasingleparentfamilywouldhavebeenroughly70percenthigher…

– “Theoddsoflivinginpovertynearly40percenthigher…

– “Theoddsofwelfarereceipt50percenthigher…– “Fromtheseresults,weestimatethatthelegalizationofabortionsavedthefederalgovernmentover$14billioninwelfarepaymentsthrough1994.”

GruberJ,LevinePandStaiger D.AbortionLegalizationandChildLivingCircumstances:WhoistheMarginalChild?NationalBureauofEconomicResearchWorkingPaper6034,1997.

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CountingtheFinancialCostofAbortionResultingfromVPB

• 2010Costs(in2016$)forAbortionrelatedVPBinfanthospitalization:– Tricare2016DRGpayments(http://www.tricare.mil/drgrates/)

• Model1:Community(Non-Children’s,Non-ResidencyTrainingHospital)NICUCare

$981,142,551(hospitalcharges)+$245,285,638(profees)=$1,226,428,188• Model2:CommunityNICU(80%care)andChildren’sHospital(20%care)

$784,914,041(Community)+$283,053,772(Children’sHospital)+$266,991,953(profees)=$1,334,959,766

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CountingtheCostofAbortioninVPB

$22,600,000,000

$27,300,000,000

$47,000,000,000

$57,200,,000,000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Gruber"Benefit"ofAbortion1973-1994

HospitalCostofAbortionRelatedPretermBirth1973-1994

Gruber"Benefit"ofAbortion1973-2014

HospitalCostofAbortionRelatedPretermBirth1973-2014

Gruber"Benefit"ofAbortion1973-1994

HospitalCostofAbortionRelatedPretermBirth1973-1994

Gruber"Benefit"ofAbortion1973-2014

HospitalCostofAbortionRelatedPretermBirth1973-2014

GruberJ,LevinePandStaiger D.AbortionLegalizationandChildLivingCircumstances:WhoistheMarginalChild?NationalBureauofEconomicResearchWorkingPaper6034,1997.

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WhatNext?• Medicalprovidersneedtorecognizetheirdutytocreateaninformedconsentprocessfor

womenconsideringabortionthatstatestheriskinducedabortion,especiallysurgicalabortion,imposesforafutureVPB.

• Publichealthorganizationsneedtoaccepttheirresponsibilitytoinformthepublic,astheydidwithsmokinganditsassociationwithPTB,thatabortionismorehighlyassociatedandisacausalfactorforafutureVPB.

• Ideallywomenandmenwouldbemadeawareofthisassociationasapublicservicewhichwouldinformdecisionsbeingmadeprospectivelyregardingsexualactivityandcontraception

• StateandfederalDepartmentsofHealthandHumanServicesandEducationneedtoincorporateintopublicschoolsexeducationcurriculumstheevidencethatinducedabortionisamutableriskfactorforafuturePTB.

• TheCenterforDiseaseControl(CDC),asthestewardsofpublichealthforanationexperiencingapretermbirthepidemic,shouldacknowledgeandeducatethenationregardingtheestablishedscientificriskabortionposesforfuturepretermbirth.

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WhatNext?• TheMarchofDimesneedstoincludetheriskthatabortionposesforaVPBaspartoftheireffortsto

reducePTB.ThemissionoftheMarchofDimesis“Wehelpmomshavefull-termpregnanciesandresearchtheproblemsthatthreatenthehealthofbabies.”

• TheAmericanAcademyofPediatrics(AAP)BrightFuturesChildHealthPathwayshouldincludecounselingforadolescentsthatincludeseducationregardingtheriskabortionposesforafuturepretermbirth.

• TheAmericanCongressofObstetriciansandGynecologists(ACOG)shouldfollowtheexampleoftheRoyalCollegeofMedicineandrecognizetheabortion-VPBrisk.

• Researcheffortsarenecessarytoexaminethelongtermimpactofmedicalabortion,andspecificallymifepristone,oncervicalarchitectureandremodeling.

• ItshouldbearesearchprioritytoanalyzetherelationshipbetweenmedicalabortionandfuturePTBandVPB.

• Itshouldbearesearchprioritytoevaluatethepossibleroleof17Alpha-hydroxyprogesteronecaproate (17-P)inpreventingPTBwhenadministeredtomotherswithahistoryofapriorabortion.Thebeliefofsomethatapriorsurgicalabortionisan“immutable”riskfactorforafuturepretermbirthmaybeaninaccurateassumption.Itispossiblethatwith17-Pwemightbeabletomitigatetheriskforfuturepretermbirthforwomenwithanabortionhistory.

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RecommendedSources

• IssuesinLawandMedicinehttp://issuesinlawandmedicine.com/• AmericanAcademyofProlifeObGyns (AAPLOG)http://aaplog.org/

– AnnualBullfinchMeeting• September29,30andOctober1,2017• TheCenterforBioethicsandHumanDignity• TrinityInternationalUniversityCampus

• AmericanCollegeofPediatricshttps://www.acpeds.org/• HUSHhttp://hushfilm.com/

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“Additionalriskfactorsforpretermbirthreportedinthemedicalliteratureareuterineandcervicalabnormalities,smoking,alcoholconsumption,illicitdruguseduringpregnancyandtheperformanceofdilationandevacuationabortions.

“AccordingtoChapter10ofthemedicaltextbook“AClinician’sGuidetoMedicalandSurgicalAbortion,”theUSreportsthehighestrateofdilationandevacuationabortionsofanywhereintheworld.Dilationandevacuationabortionsaregenerallyconsideredtobesecondandthirdtrimesterprocedures(usedwhenthebabyislargerandthecervixneedstobedilatedwider).However,statestatisticsshowthousandsoffirsttrimesterdilationandevacuationsreportedinMaine,Pennsylvaniaandotherstatesduringthepasttwodecades.”

https://worcestermag.com/2014/05/22/epidemic-preterm-births/23540 LastaccessedApril5,2017.

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“Andthat’sasitshouldBe”IfAbortionsWereBananas…

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IOMReportonPretermBirth:Causes,Consequences,andPrevention

• “TheprojectthatisthesubjectofthisreportwasapprovedbytheGoverningBoardoftheNationalResearchCouncil,whosemembersaredrawnfromthecouncilsoftheNationalAcademyofSciences,theNationalAcademyofEngineering,andtheInstituteofMedicine.”

• “ThisstudywassupportedbyContractNo.N01-OD-4-2139,TaskOrderNo.145betweentheNationalAcademyofSciencesandtheNationalInstituteforChildHealthandHumanDevelopment,CentersforDiseaseControlandPrevention,HealthResourcesandServicesAdministration,EnvironmentalProtectionAgency,andNIHOfficeofResearchonWomen’sHealth.”

InstituteofMedicine,NationalAcademyofScience,PretermBirth:Causes,Consequences,andPrevention,NationalAcademiesPress,WashingtonDC,2006.

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Zhou:RiskFactorsforPPROMinChineseWomenfromUrbanCities.

Historyofadversepregnancyoutcomes

34-36Weeks PValue 28-33Weeks P Value <28Weeks PValue

1inducedabortion

1.03(0.93–1.16) 0.504 1.08(0.93–

1.26) 0.323 1.65(1.05–2.57) 0.029

2inducedabortions

1.17(1.07–1.29) 0.221 1.21(1.01–

1.33) 0.163 2.66(1.78–3.96) < 0.001

≥ 3inducedabortions

1.27(1.11–1.47) 0.051 1.37(1.12–

1.67) 0.002 2.75(1.66–4.56) < 0.001

ZhouQetal.RiskfactorsforpretermprematureruptureofmembranesinChinesewomenfromurbancities.Int JGynaecolObstet.2014Dec;127(3):254-9.

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Zhou:RiskFactorsforPPROM(<37Weeks)inChineseWomenfromUrbanCities.

• Population-based,prospectivestudywasundertakenin14citiesinChina2011-2012.Womenrecruitedattheirfirstprenatal-carevisit

• 112,439womenincludedinanalyses,3077(2.7%)hadPPROM• Didnotdiscriminatebetweenmedicalandsurgicalabortionbut• “Apossibleexplanationfortheassociationcouldbeatendencyforincreasedsystemicinflammationandstimulationoftheinfectionpathwayinwomenwhohavehadaninducedabortion.”

• LikelyatleasthalfofChineseabortionsnowmedical

1.ZhouQetal.RiskfactorsforpretermprematureruptureofmembranesinChinesewomenfromurbancities.Int JGynaecol Obstet.2014Dec;127(3):254-9.2.XiaW1,SheS,LamTH.MedicalversussurgicalabortionmethodsforpregnancyinChina:acost-minimizationanalysis.

GynecolObstet Invest.2011;72(4):257-63.