Presidential Primaries:
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Transcript of Presidential Primaries:
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Presidential Primaries:
pt 2
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Themes What makes a frontrunner (before any
votes cast)? Where do media expectations come from? Why so much volatility in GOP polls
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How it works in 2012 About 2286 delegates at stake (R)
An odd sequence of events: IA (1/3), NH (1/10), SC (1/21), Fl (1/31), NV (2/4), ME (2/4*),
CO & MN (2/7), AZ & MI (2/28), WA (3/3); 10 states on 3/10, etc.
Proportional allocation of delegates if before 4/1
Results from first event have consequences for subsequent events
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How it worked in 2008 About 4200 delegates at stake (D)
An odd sequence of events: IA (1/3), NH (1/8), MI (1/15), NV (1/19), SC (1/26), Fl
(1/29), 23 states on 2/5/2008 WA on 2/9 (w/ 2 other states)
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2012 Nomination Schedule (R)State # delegates % of totalIA 28 1.21%NH 12* 0.52% SC 25* 1.09% NV 28 1.22%FL 50* 2.18%ME 24 1.05%CO & MN 76 3.32%AZ & MI 59* 2.58%WA (3/3) 43 1.88%March 6 438 19.20%
34% of delegates awarded by March 6 2012
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2012 GOP Nomination Super Tuesday less super
AK, GA, ID, MA, ND, OH, OK, TN, VT, VA Which candidate advantaged?
PR until April 1 Harder for frontrunner to deliver ‘knockout’
blow
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2008 Nomination Schedule (D)State # delegates % of totalIA 45 1.07% NV 25 .59%NH 22 .52%SC 45 1.07% FL (1/29) 185 4.40%23 states on 2/5 2075 51.36%WA on 2/9 97 2.31%LA, NE, VI (2/9) 110 2.72%
61% of delegates awarded by Feb 10 2008
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Primary campaigns Concentrate resources on early states
Visits, spending, ads
Hope for momentum; force others out early
See NYT map
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How it works Frontloading
Early wins for frontrunner IA, NH, done by Super Tuesday
Momentum & inevitability or.... no clear winner
Party Establishment advantage PLEOs, endorsements (168 GOP PLEOs, 7%)
Funding Most money = winner
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How it was supposed to work ‘08 2008 frontrunners
H. R. Clinton led national polls Oct 06 -
Feb 08 led IA polls Aug - Dec 07
Giuliani Led national polls 2007 Romney led in IA McCain never more than
20% until Jan 13 2008
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How it was supposed to work ‘12 2012 frontrunner?
Trump (26% April ‘11) Romney (25% June ) Bachman (27% IA Aug) Perry (32% Sept) Cain (26% Oct.) Gingrich (35% Dec.) Paul (25% IA Dec.) Romney (26% today)
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Iowa 2012 Romney 24.5 Santorum 24.5 Paul 21.4 Gingrich 13.3 Perry 10.3 Bachman 5.0 Huntsman 0.6
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What Influence of Iowa & NH? Since Carter (1976)
More visits to IA More time in IA More spending in IA More media in IA same w/ NH
Greater importance of IA? 2011 Straw poll 2007 Straw poll
Sam Brownback, Tommy Thompson, Huckabee
Dan Quayle 1999
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Why Iowa & New Hampshire Why do these states go first?
National party rule, tradition, stupidity
Why do so many candidates spend so much time there? Momentum, momentum, momentum
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Remember this guy? Frontrunner in national
polls 2003 Moved to New
Hampshire 81% name ID 2nd place in early NH
polls Ignored Iowa
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Remember this guy? Frontrunner in national
polls 2003 Moved to New
Hampshire 81% name ID 2nd place in early NH
polls Ignored Iowa
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How about this guy? John Edwards Never considered a
frontrunner pre-’04 50% of Dems never
heard of him in 2003 “Second place” in IA
2004 (Dems don’t report votes).
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Or this guy? Led some national
polls in 2003 Fundraising leader =
major expectations Third place in IA The Scream Stick a fork in it
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The Scream People in NH reported seeing “scream” at
least 11 times prior to voting in their primary
Fox News version Crowd version
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Opinion in Iowa, 2003-04
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How Does it Play in the Media:
Dean’s “Stunning Setback.” Iowa, 2003-04
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Failed frontrunner, 2008 Mitt Romney
Spent $85K p day on TV in 2007 Spent $2.5 m on TV for IA straw poll Spent another $2.4 m on mail, other ads Won Aug ‘07 IA straw poll
Earned media, earned high expectations
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2007 - 2008 GOP trends IA never gots Romney
traction nationally He lead in IA polls for
months in 2007 Lost IA to a guy w/ a
funny Youtube ad 34% H, 25% R, 13% Mc
End of Romney ‘08
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Early Momentum Many campaigns believe that performance
in early events determines their fate
“Performance” in early events defined as much by reality, as by interpretation
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IA, NH, and Expectations New Hampshire 1972
Ed Muskie 46% George McGovern37%
Interpretation Muskie “cried”
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IA, NH, and Expectations Iowa, 1976
Jimmy Carter second at 27%; B. Bayh 13% lost to “Uncommitted” (37%)
Interprentation: “Carter Defeats Bayh 2 - 1” NYT
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IA, NH, and Expectations Iowa, 1988
Dick Gephart 31% Paul Simon 27% Mike Dukakis 22%
Interpretation: Gephart & Simon locals, expected to do well Dukakis “strong showing”
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IA, NH and expectations Iowa 1984, 1988, NH 1996
Hart (D) 16% in IA 1984 Robertson (R) 25% in IA 1988 (2nd) Buchanan (R) 23% in NH 1996 (2nd, Dole 26%)
Interpretation “Hart scores upset” ....32% behind Mondale, beat
McGovern “strong second in surprise” NYT
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IA, NH & Expectations 1992, NH Reality
Paul Tsongas 33% Bill Clinton 24 % Bob Kerry 11 %
Interpretation Big win for Clinton, the “comeback kid” Tsongas from MA, expected to do well, Clinton expected to do
poorly
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IA, NH & Expectations NH 2004
Kerry 39% Dean 26% Clark 13 % Edwards 12 %
Interpretation two candidate race: Kerry v. Edwards Dean was expected to do better, Clark won in states in
wrong time zone
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Media influence & expectations Basis of initial expectations
standing in early polls fundraising
Beating early expectations Big shift in attention (deserved?)
Failing to meet expectations Big drop in attention
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Media influence & expectations How is the 2012 result being interpreted by
media What were expectations?
Who beat expectations? Who gets most media bounce?
Who failed to meet expectations?
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Beating expectations (Media shift) Hart 1984 37% Reagan 1976 36% Clinton 1992 35% Buchanan 28% Carter 1976 25% Huckabee 2008 21% Robertson 1988 20% Obama 2008 17%
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Media Shift, 2012 after IA Romney 33% pre, 37% post Paul 20% pre, 17% post Gingrich 20% pre, 11% post Perry 9% pre, 7% post Bachman 7% pre, 3% post Santorum 9% pre, 21% post Huntsman2% pre, 2% post
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Lessons from 2008 Early frontrunners not always strong
Polls capture name ID
Dem process = real danger of no clear winner
Frontloading doesn’t help frontrunners Instant fundraising now possible (Internet)
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Lessons from 2008 Could Obama have won w/o Iowa?
4 days between IA and NH
Could Huckabee have been noticed w/o Iowa
Could Obama have won w/o the Internet?
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Lessons from 2008 Sequence matters
IA, NH matter....too much?
The schedule matters....2012? What if NV went first? NY? WA?
What reforms?
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Earliest polls for 2012 The polls: Feb, April,
Dec ‘10 Palin 25%, 15%, 17% Huck 32%, 24%, 18% Rom 21%, 20%, 19%
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Looking back to 2007 Dem, Jan ‘07, 1 year
before IA Clinton 34% Obama 18% Edwards 15% Gore 10% Kerry 5% Bidden 3%
GOP, Jan ‘07 1 year before IA Giuliani 32% McCain 26% Gingrich 9% Romney 7% Pataki 3% Huckabee 1%
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Reforms Regional Primaries
National primary What if everyone voted on Feb 5th 2008
Closed primaries Rush Limbaugh, Operation Chaos
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Reforms Regional primary
how implement? who goes first?
Delaware Plan 10 smallest states first 10 next largest states, etc.