Presidential election 2018 - PSSI€¦ · Presidential election 2018 ... project published 1086...
Transcript of Presidential election 2018 - PSSI€¦ · Presidential election 2018 ... project published 1086...
Presidential election 2018
Preliminary outcomes of the analysis
Authors: Jonáš Syrovátka, Jaroslav Hroch (PSSI)
Summary
During the period between December 1, 2017 and January 21, 2018, platforms followed in this
project published 1086 articles in total, in which at least one presidential candidate was
mentioned. Most of them (719 articles) focused their attention on the election campaign. During
December, the candidates were also mentioned in connection to other topics, whereas the topic of
the election campaign has clearly dominated in January.
In this analysis we will only cover the candidates who are in the second round of the Presidential
Elections. The most mentioned candidate was Miloš Zeman (altogether in 947 articles). This
attention was, however, partly due to the President’s duties related to his tenure, constituting in
total one third of the articles. Jiří Drahoš was mentioned in 554 articles.
In most of the cases, mentions of the candidates were neither negative nor positive. The overall
number of negative and positive articles about Miloš Zeman was more or less equal (160 negative
to 182 positive). Jiří Drahoš was mentioned more often with a negative connotation (133 negative
to 81 positive). The situation has, however, changed in the third week of January, after the first
round of elections. The number of positive mentions of Miloš Zeman has increased (37 negative
and 75 positive), while Jiří Drahoš’s name was mentioned more often with a negative spin (68
mentions) than with a positive (35 mentions) one.
The most active platform was Parlamentní listy, which published 975 articles. The overall
sentiment of these articles was clearly positive about, and leaning towards, Miloš Zeman (both on
their websites and their official Facebook page. See below). Parlamentní listy also published
disinformation, according to which the popular Czech singer, Karel Gott, endorsed Miloš Zeman.
Other platforms, such as Aeronet, Protipoud and the Facebook page Zprávy.cz, have also
increased their activity and promoted Miloš Zeman, whilst criticizing Jiří Drahoš.
Disinformation has also been spreading with a higher intensity. These include old campaigns—for
instance, the one blaming George Soros for financing the campaign of Jiří Drahoš, or another
saying that Jiří Drahoš collaborated with a plainclothes secret (political) police force StB during
Communist Czechoslovakia—and also new ones, such as Jiří Drahoš naming Miroslav Kalousek
as the Prime Minister and then accepting refugees in accordance with the EU refugee quota. There
was no disinformation campaign on the platforms followed in this project which attempted to
slander Miloš Zeman.
Topics
Throughout December and the first three week in January, the platforms followed in this project
published 1086 articles, in which at least one presidential candidate was mentioned. Most of them (719
articles) focused attention on the election campaign. Another very popular topic was the current domestic
political situation connected to the formation of the new government (147 articles), and reporting on the
President’s duties related to his tenure (54 articles).
In December, the ratio between articles reporting on the election campaign and articles focused on other
topics was more or less equal, whereas in January the topic of the election campaign has dominated.
Graph n. 1 – The representation of particular topics on the platforms followed by the project
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In the group of articles focusing on the election, opinion-based articles – commentary (216 articles) and
interviews (171) – dominated. The second most represented type of articles was information regarding the
election campaign (193 articles) followed by the statements from the candidates (123 articles). Ten
articles in total contained disinformation.
Graph n. 2 – The types of articles reporting on the presidential election
The Candidates
The most mentioned candidate throughout the analyzed period was Miloš Zeman (altogether in 947
articles). If we concentrate on the articles reporting on Zeman with a clear connection to the election, the
number is lower, just 632 articles. However, even then, Miloš Zeman is notably the most mentioned
candidate.
The second most popular candidate during the period followed by this project was Jiří Drahoš (554
articles). In December, Jiří Drahoš ‘competed’ for the second position with Mirek Topolánek.
216
193
171
123
10
Commentary
News
Interview
Statement
Disinformation
Graph n. 3 – Mentions of the candidates over time
In the majority of cases, the mentions regarding the candidates were neither positive nor negative. The
overall number of positive and negative articles about Miloš Zeman was more or less equal (160 negative
to 182 positive). Jiří Drahoš was mentioned more often with a negative connotation, with a ratio 3:2 (133
negative to 81 positive mentions). While an overwhelming number of negative mentions about Zeman
was published in Parlamentní listy (usually in questionnaires among celebrities or in interviews), Drahoš
was criticized by all platforms followed in this project.
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M. Zeman (president)
M. Zeman (candida-te)
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Graph n. 4 – The number of mentions in total with respect to the sentiment (neutral-negative-
positive) 1
With regards to sentiment, there was a visible change between the first and the second round. Before the
first round, the ratio of negative (123) and positive (118) mentions regarding Miloš Zeman was almost
equal. Now, just before the second round, the ratio of positive to negative mentions has increased (37
negative to 75 positive). Jiří Drahoš saw the opposite effect; he was predominantly negatively mentioned
before the first round (65 negative to 44 positive), but just before the second round the number of
negative mentions has increased (68 negative to 35 positive).
A sharpened political struggle has also been reflected by an increase of articles with either a positive or
negative sentiment. Before the second round, the number of positive and negative mentions is almost the
same as neutral ones.
1 Calculated by January 21, 2018.
M. Zeman (in total) J. Drahoš (in total)0
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Graph n. 5 – The number of mentions in total with respect to the sentiment (neutral-negative-
positive) – a comparison between the first and second rounds
Platforms
Most of the analyzed articles (975) were published by the website Parlamentní listy, though just a small
portion was also published on their official Facebook page. Articles published on their website and
Facebook were different in sentiment. On their Facebook page, more articles were published which had a
positive sentiment regarding Miloš Zeman (34 negative and 63 positive), whilst Jiří Drahoš was criticized
more often (46 negative and 16 positive). The reaction of the Facebook users to positive articles about Jiří
Drahoš was very negative.
Parlamentní listy also published a disinformation, according to which the well-known Czech singer, Karel
Gott, endorsed Miloš Zeman. The author of this article is Radim Panenka, a ‘journalist’ well known for
his close contacts within the President’s inner circle. This disinformation—with a manipulative headline,
which was later changed—had 116 shares on Facebook after just twenty-four hours.
M. Z
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(bef
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Graph n. 6 – The number of mentions in total with respect to the sentiment (neutral-negative-
positive) – a comparison between Parlamentní listy Facebook and webpage
The website Protiproud published fifteen articles and in most of them (nine articles), Jiří Drahoš was
criticized, while their readers were encouraged to vote for Miloš Zeman. Authors agreed on the fact that
Zeman is a ‘pro-national candidate,’ whereas Jiří Drahoš is a very weak and susceptible to manipulation
by a global elite.2 Protiproud also contributed to the spreading of the disinformation regarding George
Soros’ financing of Jiří Drahoš’s campaign.
The website Aeronet published fourteen articles in total. It was usually the first platform to publish the
majority of disinformation during the period this project was conducted. Aeronet also endorsed Miloš
Zeman and in the half of the articles, criticized Jiří Drahoš. With the second round approaching, the
website has become more active and publishes articles on a daily basis. Some of them were also adopted
from other websites, which is a unique phenomenon for Aeronet.
The Facebook page Zprávy.cz (formerly WeAreHereAtHome) has been also more active after the first
round. Between January 14 and January 21, it published twenty-three statuses which mentioned at least
one of the candidates. Miloš Zeman was introduced in a very positive light (2 negative to 11 positive) and
2 This opinion is very clear in a commentary of V. Podracký (January 18, 2018).
M. Z
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Jiří Drahoš was, not surprisingly, heavily criticized (12 negative to 1 positive). According to the reactions
and comments, most of the people following the page shared this point of view.
The website Sputnik CZ published thirty-eight articles; Miloš Zeman was depicted positively in eight of
them. An editorial staff member, in a reaction to an ironic tweet by MP Miroslav Kalousek, declared that
they are not going to be involved in the election campaign. The website AC24 published fourteen articles
and in most the candidates were mentioned neither negatively nor positively.
Graph n. 7 – Number of articles published on platforms followed by this project (excluding
Parlamentní listy)
Disinformation
The number of disinformation campaigns being spread has also increased after the first round. Five out of
ten campaigns appeared in the third week of January alone. The topics of the new disinformation
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campaigns were connecting Jiří Drahoš with unpopular MP Miroslav Kalousek (who will be, allegedly,
named as the Prime Minister) and with migration (Drahoš is believed to begin accepting refugees in
accordance with the EU refugee quota). Older disinformation (for example, blaming George Soros for
financing Jiří Drahoš’s campaign, or another saying that Jiří Drahoš collaborated with a plainclothes
secret (political) police force StB during Communist Czechoslovakia) also started to appear with greater
intensity. Miloš Zeman wasn’t targeted by any disinformation campaign. He was, however, misinformed
by an above mentioned article from Parlamentní listy and stated that Karel Gott endorsed him. Parlametní
listy also reported about a distribution of leaflets, in which it was stated that Miloš Zeman’s supporters do
not have to vote in the first round of the election.
Graph n. 8 – Mentions of the combination of words ‘Soros’ and ‘elections’ on the Czech news
websites in January (searched using a tool >versus<)
This newsletter was written under the project, The Czech Election in The Era of Disinformation, during
which five platforms disseminating disinformation and the way in which they inform the public about the
presidential election in 2018 is followed. These are: the websites AC24; Aeronet; Parlametní listy;
Protiprooud; and Sputnk CZ; and the Facebook page Zprávy.cz. The data-gathering is conducted using
the >versus< media monitoring tool, developed by the Beacon Project of the International Republican
Institute. The project was also supported by The Open Society Fund Prague.