“President Obama’s vision for high-speed rail mirrors that of President Eisenhower, the father...
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Transcript of “President Obama’s vision for high-speed rail mirrors that of President Eisenhower, the father...
“President Obama’s vision for high-speed rail mirrors that of President Eisenhower, the father of the Interstate highway system, which revolutionized the way Americans traveled.”
—White House news release
Unasked Questions•How much will it cost?•How to pay for it?•Who will ride it?•Do benefits exceed costs?
French Travel
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Trams &Metros
Low-SpeedRail
High-SpeedRail
Bus Air (inEU-25)
Auto
Miles Per Capita in 2004
127 386 397 437
1200
7588
Source: Panorama of Transport, EU
Japanese Travel
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Bus High-SpeedRail
Air (inJapan)
Trams &Metros
Low-SpeedRail
Auto
Miles Per Capita in 2007354 399 405
1013
3924
Sources: Ministry of Transport, Japanese Railways
490
Type/Location
Top Speed
Average
SpeedVery Hi-Speed
(California)220
135-145
High-Speed (Florida)
125 80-85
Moderate-Speed (31 States)
110 55-75
Costs•Moderate-speed in Midwest: $2.4 million/mile in 2004•Moderate-speed NYC-Buffalo: $3.9 million/mile in 2005•High-speed in Florida: $25 million/mile in 2005•Very high-speed in California: $67 million/mile in 2008
Inflation-Adjusted Costs
•Moderate-speed rail: $3.5 million/mile•High-speed in Florida: $31 million/mile•Very high-speed in California: $67 million/mile
HSR “Vision” Construction Costs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mod-SpeedVision
Billions of Dollars30
HSR “Vision” Construction Costs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mod-SpeedVision
Add FL & CA
Billions of Dollars30
90
HSR “Vision” Construction Costs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mod-SpeedVision
Add FL & CA Add Gaps
Billions of Dollars30
90 100
HSR “Vision” Construction Costs
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Mod-SpeedVision
Add FL & CA Add Gaps All High-Speed
Billions of Dollars
30
90
550
100
Interstate Highway System
Passenger Miles Per Lane or Rail Route Mile
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
HSR minusCA
HSRAverage
RuralInterstates
UrbanInterstates
CaliforniaHSR
Millions of Passenger Miles Per Year
Passenger Miles Per Lane or Rail Route Mile
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
HSR minusCA
HSRAverage
RuralInterstates
UrbanInterstates
CaliforniaHSR
Millions of Dollars Per Lane or Route Mile
Annual Passenger Miles Per Capita
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
HSR Statesminus CA
HSRNationalAverage
California RuralInterstates
UrbanInterstates
Annual Passenger Miles Per Capita
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
HSR Statesminus CA
HSRNationalAverage
California RuralInterstates
UrbanInterstates
Annual Passenger Miles Per Capita
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
2,100
2,400
2,700
HSR Statesminus CA
HSRNationalAverage
California RuralInterstates
UrbanInterstates
DC to NYCModeMode TimeTime FareFareAcela 2:50 $99Regiona
l3:15 49
Bus 4:15 20Air 1:00 119
Fewer than 8% of
Americans work in
downtowns
Fewer than 1% of
Americans live in
downtowns
“We calculated a total emissions savings of 6 billion pounds of CO2 per year if all proposed high speed rail systems studied for this project are built.”
Assumptions• ”Relatively low fuel prices and a continuing trend of drivers switching to sport utility vehicles” = average 23 mpg• 1.6 passengers per auto• Airline efficiencies grow 0.6 percent per year• Trains 70 percent full
Alternative Assumptions
• Obama’s fuel-economy standards will increase average mpg to 29 by 2025• 2.4 passengers per auto in intercity traffic• Airline efficiencies have grown by 3.2 percent per year• Amtrak trains only 51% full
“Intercity auto trips tend to be relatively efficient highway trips with higher-than-average vehicle occupancy rates—on average, they are as energy-efficient as rail intercity trips.”
“Additionally, if passenger rail competes for modal share by moving to high speed service, its energy efficiency should be reduced somewhat—making overall energy savings even more problematic.”
Emissions Using Report Assumptions
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Emissions Saved HSR EmissionsBillion Pounds of CO2 Emissions Per Year
Automobiles
Planes
Trains & Buses
Emissions If Trains 51 Percent Full
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Emissions Saved HSR EmissionsBillion Pounds of CO2 Emissions Per Year
Automobiles
Planes
Trains & Buses
Emissions If 29 MPG & 2.4 People/Car
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Emissions Saved HSR EmissionsBillion Pounds of CO2 Emissions Per Year
Automobiles
Planes
Trains & Buses
If Airline Efficiency Grows at 3%/Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Emissions Saved HSR EmissionsBillion Pounds of CO2 Emissions Per Year
Automobiles
Planes
Trains & Buses
Grams of CO2 Emissions Per Passenger Mile
0
50
100
150
200
250
Bus Auto High-SpeedRail
Air Low-SpeedRail
“The environmentally
preferred alternative is the
No Build Alternative.”
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