Presented to:Aviation and the Environment: Issues & Methods Workshop By: Dr. Lourdes Maurice,

Presented to: Aviation and the Environment:Issues & Methods Workshop

By: Dr. Lourdes Maurice,Chief Scientific and Technical Advisor for EnvironmentFAA Office of Environment & Energy

Date: September 27-28, 2007

Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives

Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives2Federal Aviation

AdministrationSeptember 27-28, 2007

Outline

• The Challenges Ahead• Goals & Metrics• NextGen Solutions• Concluding Observations



Community Noise Impacts

Global climateAir Quality

Aviation Environmental IssuesAviation Environmental Issues - 2003




Global climate

Air Quality

Aviation Environmental Issues

Water Quality

Aviation Environmental Issues - 2005



Energy: Evolving Strategic Concerns

Transportation continues to have the largest reliance on oil…

…while some are predicting that we are nearing the peak of oil supply.



Energy: Shift in Airline Cost Equation

Source: Air Transport Association



• United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1992– General commitment to reduce certain

greenhouse gas emissions

• Kyoto Protocol 1997 (2005)– Specific targets for reductions

– Developing countries exempt (for now)

– Coverage of domestic aviation up to each country

– International aviation subject to ICAO plan (per Article 2.2)

• ICAO Decision in 2004 – Limit or reduce the impact from aviation

greenhouse gas emissions on climate change

Climate: Evolving Concerns



– “Flying kills. We all know it, and we all do it. And we won't stop doing it until the Government reverses its policy and starts closing the runways.” London Guardian, February 28, 2006

– “Of all the things which an ordinary person does which damage the planet, flying is far the worst.” Fly Now, Grieve Later, Tyndall Climate Center

– “Aviation could be the next tobacco industry.” CANSO Official, ATAG Conference, 2006

– “…we should tax aviation so heavily…that in within 10 years there should be virtually no domestic flights.” Conservative MP Tim Yeo, January 2007

– every time someone dies as a result of floods in Bangladesh, an airline executive should be dragged out of his office and drowned. George Monibot, Guardian Newspaper, December 2006

Climate: A Growing Storm



• GHG Emissions vs. Other Environmental Issues

• Defining a Way Forward (Technology vs. Market-Based Measures)

• Shift in Aviation Center of Gravity

Climate: ICAO Assembly Debate




Global Climate

Air Quality

Aviation Environmental Issues - Today

Water Quality

Energy



NextGen VisionProvide environmental protection that allowssustained aviation growth

Factors:• 2X increase in system by 2025 • Fundamental system changes• Increased importance of environment• Vision to grow aviation while reducing significant environmental impacts

The Way Forward for the US



Source: NextGen Integrated Plan, 2004

Dem

and

Year

Shift to more passengers / flight

3X

1X

2X

2004 2014 2025

Shift to smaller aircraft, more airports

2% Shift to Micro Jets

Increase 10+ pax/flight

Flights 1.4-3X

Passengers 1.8-2.4X

… and this is coupled with environmental

capacity constraints.

50 Largest U.S. Airports

0

20

40

60

80

100

Ozone PM 2.5

Non-attainmentAttainment

Demand for aviation is growing …

HC

CO

NOx

SOx

+ 75%

+ 70%

+ 90%

+ 85%

Preliminary Emissions for NextGen 2X Growth Scenario

… as is the environmental

footprint…

2000199019800

150

300

450

Air

po

rts

wit

h R

es

tric

tio

ns

Compiled by Tam et al., 2007from Boeing data 9/13/05

% o

f a

irpo

rts

Environmental Issues Translate to Capacity Constraints



• By 2025, significant environmental impacts of noise and local air quality will be reduced in absolute terms, even with the anticipated growth in aviation.

• Uncertainties about aviation emissions are reduced to enable appropriate actions to address these effects.

• Communities will value airports as gateways to the national and international transportation network.

• U.S. aerospace will provide leadership in researching, developing, and implementing technological, operational and policy initiatives that address mobility and environmental needs.

Our VisionEnvironmental Protection that Allows

Sustained Aviation Growth



Outline




Noise• NextGen analyses done against goal to reduce noise exposure (65, 55 DNL) 1%/year

measured from base of 2000-2002 average (FAA goal)• FAA goal is now 4%/year (65 DNL) through Flight Plan (2008-2012)

Local Air quality• NextGen analyses compute lbs emissions• Engine emissions standards limit lbs emissions; ≠ significance• National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) establish significance for all sources

combined• Establishing aircraft contribution challenging

Climate• NextGen analyses done against goal to improve aviation fuel efficiency per revenue plane-

mile by 1%/year measured from base of 2000-2002 average (FAA goal)• Historical average ~2.2%; goal may become more stringent• Fuel burn can be translated to lbs pollutants; ≠ significance• Establishing metrics/aviation contribution challenging

Quantifying Goals



Noise• “Significance” established as exposure to 65 DNL per Federal Policy;

significant legal precedent• Other views but no consensus exist

Local Air quality• Lbs emissions (not appropriate for impacts)• Need to quantify impacts (e.g., health impacts) – to do so requires putting

aviation contribution in context of other sources

Fuel Burn (Surrogate for Climate)• Using fuel burn per revenue passenger mile• Other metrics capture other types of performance (e.g., fuel burn per payload)• Working to establish metric; composite metric probably best – but difficult

from a policy perspective

Metrics Gaps



APMT PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM BLOCK

NOISE IMPACTS

LOCAL AIR QUALITY IMPACTS

CLIMATE IMPACTS

APMT COSTS & BENEFITS

New Aircraft

Emissions

Noise

APMT BENEFITS VALUATION BLOCK

Monetized Benefits

CollectedCosts

Emissions

Emissions & Noise

Policy and Scenarios

AEDT

Fares

DEMAND (Consumers)

SUPPLY (Carriers)

Operations

Schedule &

Fleet

EDS

What are the noise and emission

characteristics?

What are the environmental

implications & costs associated with a vehicle design?

A New Way of Modeling Impacts



30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Climate Local Air Quality Noise

US

$B20

05

3% discount rate

Preliminary Results Only--Do not citeUS emissionsYearly cost

$16B/yr

US emissionsYearly cost

$2.8B/yr

89 US airports$0.5B/yr

(when annualized on a 30 year basis=

$10B “one-time”cost)

Example: Interdependencies - (for one particular set of scenarios and assumptions)



Outline




The Best Ultimate Solution: New Aircraft Technologies

Opportunities

• Historically new technologies account for 90% of environmental footprint reduction

• New concepts offer promise for improvement

• Collaborative demonstrations with industry can stimulate technology transition



CAAFI - Commercial Aviation Alternative Fuels Initiative

Opportunities• Alternative Fuels may be Environmentally Friendly

• Helps Manage Interdependencies

• Enhances Energy Security/Diversity

• Aviation’s Potential as First Adapter

• Sustained High Costs Keep Alternatives Viable



Near Term Solutions: Flight operations

Opportunities• New technologies to improve air traffic management will help reduce emissions.

An example is RVSM – Reduced Vertical Separation Minimums. Full worldwide implementation of RVSM may reduce fuel use by ~500 million gallons each year.

• Other operational approaches, such as continuous descent arrivals, can reduce fuel burn as well as noise

• Reducing congestion, and optimizing airport ground and terminal air space operations offer great promise for future reductions of noise and emissions



• Demonstrate and enable new aviation fuels derived from domestic resources to ensure a secure stable fuel supply

• Demonstrate technologies and operations to enable significant increases in the fuel efficiency of the aviation system

• Demonstrate technologies and operations to decrease the environmental impact of the aviation system

• Advance scientific knowledge/reduce uncertainties

NextGen R&D



• Research Consortium for Lower Energy, Emissions and Noise Technology Partnership “CLEEN”

• Airport Cooperative Research Program• Environmental Mitigation Demonstration Pilot

Program• Grant Eligibility for Assessment of Flight Procedures

(Sec. 605)• Airport Funding of Special Studies or Reviews

Reauthorization Provisions focused on NextGen

http://www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/reauthorization/



Outline




• Environmental constraints to aviation growth real and looming

• We do not know quantitatively what our goals are – but likely to be more stringent

• We need metrics to quantify impacts

• We need to inform policy makers to enable defining significant

• We need robust cost-benefit analyses to inform defining appropriate

• NextGen Reform Act of 2007 offers historic environmental provisions to deal with these challenges

Summary

Presented to:Aviation and the Environment: Issues & Methods Workshop By: Dr. Lourdes Maurice,

Documents

Transcript of Presented to:Aviation and the Environment: Issues & Methods Workshop By: Dr. Lourdes Maurice,