Presented by Christopher Lee CEL & Associates, Inc

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Transcript of Presented by Christopher Lee CEL & Associates, Inc

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Presented by Christopher Lee CEL & Associates, Inc. Slide 2 Future Headlines Real Estate Industrys Megashifts The Psychology of Real Estate Real Estate Cycles Transformational Leadership Predictions CEL & Associates, Inc. 2 Slide 3 FUTURE HEADLINES CEL & Associates, Inc. 3 Slide 4 Tuesday, July 10, 2015Daily $1.75 Today's Highlights NYC Office eBay Becomes The #1 Source For Selling Real Estate CEL & Associates, Inc. 4 Slide 5 Congress Passes National Building Codes Standards Making It Unlawful To Sell A Building That Is Non-Compliant! Monday, February 18, 2015Daily $1.50 Today's Highlights NYC Office CEL & Associates, Inc. 5 Slide 6 Tuesday, July 10, 2018Daily $1.75 Today's Highlights Multifamily First Apartment Building Leased Up Using Social Media CEL & Associates, Inc. 6 Slide 7 Monday, February 18, 2016Daily $2.50 Today's Highlights Office Facebook Creates First Virtual Office Y Generation Declares Office Space Obsolete. CEL & Associates, Inc. 7 Slide 8 First High Rise Farm Announced 12 Stories Equal To 600 Acres Monday, February 18, 2015Daily 1.25 Today's Highlights NYC Office CEL & Associates, Inc. 8 Slide 9 REAL ESTATE INDUSTRYS MEGASHIFTS CEL & Associates, Inc. 9 Slide 10 CEL & Associates, Inc. 10 Slide 11 CEL & Associates, Inc. 11 Slide 12 CEL & Associates, Inc. 12 Slide 13 CEL & Associates, Inc. 13 Slide 14 CEL & Associates, Inc. 14 Slide 15 THE PSYCHOLOGY OF REAL ESTATE CEL & Associates, Inc. 15 Slide 16 CEL & Associates, Inc. 16 32% of Americans now say that they are in the lower class. (Pew Research 9/10/12) 53% of Americans have 3 months or less of savings. (Yahoo Finance 8/29/12) Only 38% of Americans say that they are better off than a year ago. (Gallup 10/25/12) 54% of Americans expect a recession in 2013. (Rasmussen 12/27/12) 53% of Americans think the economy is getting worse. (Gallup 1/15/13) 50% of Americans believe the best years in America are in the past. (Gallup 1/2/13) Only 5% of U.S. voters think Congress is doing a good or excellent job. (Rasmussen 12/30/12) Slide 17 Uncertain Hesitant Worried Stressed Unsure Cautious Insecure Dubious Unsettled Wavering Unpredictable Careful CEL & Associates, Inc. 17 Slide 18 CEL & Associates, Inc. 18 Slide 19 CEL & Associates, Inc. 19 Source: CEL & Associates, Inc. Slide 20 CEL & Associates, Inc. 20 Source: CEL & Associates, Inc. Slide 21 CEL & Associates, Inc. 21 Source: CEL & Associates, Inc. Slide 22 A PSYCHOLOGICAL PROOF POINT MULTIFAMILY CEL & Associates, Inc. 22 Slide 23 CEL & Associates, Inc. 23 Slide 24 CEL & Associates, Inc. 24 Source: Census Bureau, Mortgage Bankers Association and A. Gary Shilling & Co. Last Points 1Q 2012: total 65.4%; ex past due 60.4%. Slide 25 CEL & Associates, Inc. 25 Slide 26 CEL & Associates, Inc. 26 Source: Census Bureau and A. Gary Shilling & Co. Last Points 2011: at parents 14.2%; homeowners 37.8%. Slide 27 CEL & Associates, Inc. 27 Slide 28 CEL & Associates, Inc. 28 Source: CBRE-EA and RREEF Real Estate. As of March 2012. Slide 29 REAL ESTATE CYCLES CEL & Associates, Inc. 29 Slide 30 Transition Phase Growth Phase Plateau Phase Crisis Phase Transition Phase 10 Years 12.5 Years 4 Years Source: CEL & Associates, Inc. CEL & Associates, Inc. 30 Slide 31 Generally last 10 years. Growth period starts on the number 3. Cycle generally ends on the number 8. Can be altered by government intervention. Are not geographically uniform. Are not consistent with property types. All real estate cycles have names. Source: CEL & Associates, Inc. CEL & Associates, Inc. 31 Slide 32 Time PeriodCycle 1983 - 1988Age of Awakening Boomers & Entrepreneurism CEL & Associates, Inc. 32 Slide 33 Time PeriodCycle 1983 - 1988Age of Awakening Boomers & Entrepreneurism 1993 - 1998Age of Technology & Start-Ups CEL & Associates, Inc. 33 Slide 34 Time PeriodCycle 1983 - 1988Age of Awakening Boomers & Entrepreneurism 1993 - 1998Age of Technology & Start-Ups 2003 - 2008Age of Exuberance & Debt CEL & Associates, Inc. 34 Slide 35 Time PeriodCycle 1983 - 1988Age of Awakening Boomers & Entrepreneurism 1993 - 1998Age of Technology & Start-Ups 2003 - 2008Age of Exuberance & Debt 2013 - 2018Age of Consequence & Restructuring CEL & Associates, Inc. 35 Slide 36 Time PeriodCycle 1983 - 1988Age of Awakening Boomers & Entrepreneurism 1993 - 1998Age of Technology & Start-Ups 2003 - 2008Age of Exuberance & Debt 2013 - 2018Age of Consequence & Restructuring 2023 - 2028Age of Globalization & Knowledge Source: CEL & Associates., Inc. CEL & Associates, Inc. 36 Slide 37 PERIOD OF OPPORTUNITY Transition Phase Growth Phase Plateau Phase Crisis Phase Transition Phase 10 Years 12.5 Years Period Of Opportunity Rising Occupancy Levels Rising Rents Growing NOIs Increasing Asset Values Accelerated Development Activity Readily Available Capital New Competitors/Firms Emerge Source: CEL & Associates, Inc. CEL & Associates, Inc. 37 Slide 38 PERIOD OF DECISIONS Transition Phase Growth Phase Plateau Phase Crisis Phase Transition Phase 10 Years 12.5 Years Period Of Decisions Supply/Demand Imbalance Optimistic Underwriting Generous TIs/Rent Concessions Unrealistic Asset Values Protracted Negotiations Blind Entrepreneurism High Investment Sales Activity Source: CEL & Associates, Inc. CEL & Associates, Inc. 38 Slide 39 Transition Phase Growth Phase Plateau Phase Crisis Phase Transition Phase 10 Years 12.5 Years Period Of Change Declining Rents/Occupancies Declining Asset Values Little/No Development Activity Workouts/Restructuring Limited Access To Credit Entity Downsizing De-Leveraging PERIOD OF CHANGE Source: CEL & Associates, Inc. CEL & Associates, Inc. 39 Slide 40 PERIOD OF REINVENTION Transition Phase Growth Phase Plateau Phase Crisis Phase Transition Phase 10 Years 12.5 Years Period Of Reinvention New Business Models Emerge Recapitalization/Cash Is King Diversification Of Risk Focus On Fundamentals Next Generation Leaders Emerge Renewed Customer Focus Consolidation Accelerates Source: CEL & Associates, Inc. CEL & Associates, Inc. 40 Slide 41 CEL & Associates, Inc. 41 Slide 42 CEL & Associates, Inc. 42 Slide 43 Source: CEL & Associates, Inc. CEL & Associates, Inc. 43 Slide 44 REAL ESTATE CYCLE PROOF POINTS CEL & Associates, Inc. 44 Slide 45 CEL & Associates, Inc. 45 Slide 46 CEL & Associates, Inc. 46 Slide 47 CEL & Associates, Inc. 47 Slide 48 CEL & Associates, Inc. 48 Slide 49 CEL & Associates, Inc. 49 Slide 50 CEL & Associates, Inc. 50 Slide 51 CEL & Associates, Inc. 51 Slide 52 SoWhat Core Strategy Do You Need To Embrace To Capitalize On The Emerging Opportunities? CEL & Associates, Inc. 52 Slide 53 TRANSFORMATIONAL LEADERSHIP ! CEL & Associates, Inc. 53 Slide 54 CEL & Associates, Inc. 54 Slide 55 Source: CEL & Associates, Inc. Human Capital Customer Relationships Brand Management Business Model Innovation Growth Strategy Execution Capital Access/Formation Controlling Costs Managing Corp. G & A Successor Planning Greening CEL & Associates, Inc. 55 Slide 56 Set Your Vision & Reset Your Priorities. CEL & Associates, Inc. 56 Slide 57 Set Your Vision & Reset Your Priorities. Implement A Collaborative Business Model. CEL & Associates, Inc. 57 Slide 58 Set Your Vision & Reset Your Priorities. Implement A Collaborative Business Model. Strengthen Your Brand & Differentiating Story. CEL & Associates, Inc. 58 Slide 59 Set Your Vision & Reset Your Priorities. Implement A Collaborative Business Model. Strengthen Your Brand & Differentiating Story. Become Customer-Centric & Knowledge-Driven. CEL & Associates, Inc. 59 Slide 60 Set Your Vision & Reset Your Priorities. Implement A Collaborative Business Model. Strengthen Your Brand & Differentiating Story. Become Customer-Centric & Knowledge-Driven. Improve Internal Systems & Processes. CEL & Associates, Inc. 60 Slide 61 Set Your Vision & Reset Your Priorities. Implement A Collaborative Business Model. Strengthen Your Brand & Differentiating Story. Become Customer-Centric & Knowledge-Driven. Improve Internal Systems & Processes. Take Advantage Of Competitor Difficulties. CEL & Associates, Inc. 61 Slide 62 Set Your Vision & Reset Your Priorities. Implement A Collaborative Business Model. Strengthen Your Brand & Differentiating Story. Become Customer-Centric & Knowledge-Driven. Improve Internal Systems & Processes. Take Advantage Of Competitor Difficulties. Recognize Opportunities & Pursue Them Aggressively. CEL & Associates, Inc. 62 Slide 63 Set Your Vision & Reset Your Priorities. Implement A Collaborative Business Model. Strengthen Your Brand & Differentiating Story. Become Customer-Centric & Knowledge-Driven. Improve Internal Systems & Processes. Take Advantage Of Competitor Difficulties. Recognize Opportunities & Pursue Them Aggressively. Expand Your Service Lines & Product Specialization. CEL & Associates, Inc. 63 Slide 64 Set Your Vision & Reset Your Priorities. Implement A Collaborative Business Model. Strengthen Your Brand & Differentiating Story. Become Customer-Centric & Knowledge-Driven. Improve Internal Systems & Processes. Take Advantage Of Competitor Difficulties. Recognize Opportunities & Pursue Them Aggressively. Expand Your Service Lines & Product Specialization. Strengthen Your Capital Base. CEL & Associates, Inc. 64 Slide 65 Set Your Vision & Reset Your Priorities. Implement A Collaborative Business Model. Strengthen Your Brand & Differentiating Story. Become Customer-Centric & Knowledge-Driven. Improve Internal Systems & Pr