Presentation - Tim Smith - DWWA 2008
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Transcript of Presentation - Tim Smith - DWWA 2008
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 1
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 2
CreativeI usually talk about
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 3
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 4
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
distributionuser interfacefunctionality
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 5
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
distributionuser interfacefunctionality
![Page 6: Presentation - Tim Smith - DWWA 2008](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042813/5491c396ac79595e288b4606/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 6
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
distributionuser interfacefunctionality
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 7
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
distributionuser interfacefunctionality
• 1 terabyte of data (1,000 gigabytes)• 50 magnetic tape drives• 25,000 magnetic tapes • 100 DASD units (~10 GB)
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 8
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
distributionuser interfacefunctionality
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 9
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
distributionuser interfacefunctionality
• 23 pounds• $2,000+ US• 5” screen • CP/M operating
system
• 4 MHZ processor• 65k RAM• 300 baud modem
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 10
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
distributionuser interfacefunctionality
A >
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 11
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
distributionuser interfacefunctionality
A > You are in a clearing at the edge of a small meadow. A farmhouse is nearby. There is a mailbox here.
A >
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 12
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
distributionuser interfacefunctionality
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 13
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
distributionuser interfacefunctionality
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 14
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
distributionuser interfacefunctionality
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 15
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
distributionuser interfacefunctionality
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 16
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 17
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 18
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
distributionuser interfacefunctionality
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 19
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
distributionuser interfacefunctionality
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 20
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
distributionuser interfacefunctionality
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 21
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
distributionuser interfacefunctionality
service product
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 22
products will develop sophisticated logical service extensions and
behave more like services
services will become increasingly tangible and behave more like
products
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 23
Four laws
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 24
Sarnoff’s Law
The value of a broadcast network is proportional to the number of
viewers.
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 25
television print radio outdoor
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 26
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 27
Moore’s Law
Computing power increases exponentially - effectively doubling
every 2 years.
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 28
hard drive capacity over time
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 29
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 30
Metcalfe’s Law
The value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the
square of the number of nodes of the system.
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 31
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 32
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 33
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 34
Reed’s Law
The utility of large networks, particularly social networks, can
scale exponentially with the size of the network.
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 35
Late last year the Pew Internet & American Life Project released a study
revealing that 57 percent of 12- to 17-year-olds online – 12 million individuals – are creating content of some sort and
posting it to the Web.
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 36
Creators
Contributors
Consumers
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 37
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 38
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 39
if this is your product or service ...
what do you do with this?
so
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 40
Media and the Internet
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 41
television print radio outdoor
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 42
Four point five mediums
television print radio outdoor interactive
True Use
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 43
"Between now and 2012, broadcast television in the US will grow at a modest compounded 3.8% to
$58.8 billion.
However, Internet and mobile services will grow at a compounded 14.1% to $72.3 billion.
Newspapers will continue their decline at a compounded -2.3%."
Veronis Suhler Stevenson
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 44
television
print radio
outdoor
interactive
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 45
Four mediums and a platform
television print radio outdoor
interactive
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 46
traditional media are great at starting the conversation
but very bad at “finishing”
the Internet is extremely good at “finishing”
and “continuing”
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 47
The corporate website is not a good use of a platform
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 48
= the typical monolithic corporate website (www.coke.com)
= the future of distributed functionality
Facebook applications
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 49
What can you do with this platform?
Physical products can develop powerful logical service extensions.
iTunes
Logical services can develop into powerful and tangible products.
eTrade
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 50
Service productsexpanding the concept of what services
should be
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 51
"78% of US mobile phone users call their network operator first for mobile phone
customer support problems or questions,"
"However, almost half of all US callers expressed dissatisfaction regarding
customer service personnel."
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 52
✓ 20,000+ customer service representatives✓ 25,000,000 calls per month (half of customer
base)✓ $8-12 per call (let’s use $10)✓ $250,000,000 per month
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 53
Cumulative Calls (in millions) Cumulative Cost (in millions)
325 million calls per
year
$3.25 billion in support
costs
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 54
crowdsourcing
community based support
distributed participatory support
citizen science
wisdom of crowds
mass collaboration
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 55
After all, think about what happens if you ask a hundred people to run a 100–meter
race, and then average their times.
The average time will not be better than the time of the fastest runners. It will be worse.
It will be a mediocre time.
But ask a hundred people to answer a question or solve a problem, and the average answer will often be at least as good as the
answer of the smartest member.
With most things, the average is mediocrity. With decision making, it’s often excellence.
You could say it’s as if we’ve been programmed to be collectively smart.
Suroweiki
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 56
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 57
launched 2001 - founded by Eli Lilly
The companies – or seekers, in InnoCentive parlance – pay solvers anywhere from $10,000 to $100,000 per solution.
(They also pay InnoCentive a fee to participate.) Jill Panetta, InnoCentive’s chief scientific officer, says more
than 30 percent of the problems posted on the site have been cracked, “which is 30 percent more than would have
been solved using a traditional, in-house approach.”
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 58
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 59
✓ if “alternative” cost $500k per month to run✓ 50,000 calls avoided per month =
breakeven✓ .2% of a given months call volume✓ anything over that is cash-flow positive to
carrier✓ reduce by 3% = $90mm / year savings✓ or 1500% ROI
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 60
Alt Cost (in millions) Avoided Call Cost (in millions) Alt ROI (in millions)
breakeven in about 6 months
$43 million in avoided calls
$37 million ROI
$6 million program cost
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 61
crowd-sourcing support
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 62
• “virtualize” the phone• create multimedia tutorials• allow users to create and share
their own tutorials / tips
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 63
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 64
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 65
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 66
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 67
✓ reconsider how you provide service✓ can you leverage new online economics?✓ what happens if you connect consumers?✓ what value can consumers add as creators?✓ how can you leverage your audience?✓ how do you add this as a product extension
of your service?
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 68
Product servicesexpanding the concept of what products
should be
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 69
What would you do with Coke machines?
500,000 units
(about 1 per 600 people US)
1.5 x 1.5 meters
1,235 square kilometers
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the Coke Network
• they have power• they have proximity• located where people “break”• part of social fabric
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over 7,000 hot-spots
get a Starbucks Card, put at least five bucks on it and then use it at least once every 30 days, and you've got two hours of free Wi-Fi a day. Not bad at all...
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today
79
all designconsumer product design
physical products
logicalproducts
• iPhone / iTunes• most mobile devices• cable boxes• Tivo
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Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ [email protected] phone/ +1.415.258.9575 7481
all designconsumer product design
physical products
logicalproducts
• cars• refrigerators• televisions• all mobile devices• remote controls• home entertainment• ?
tomorrow
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• OnStar
• autos have VIN numbers, will eventually have IP addresses
• what if all products have IP addresses?
• guess what? people have IP addresses too
• what happens when you cross product IP addresses with people IP
addresses?
• what are the opportunities for service extensions of products?
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Story systemscreating stories with consumers through coordinated use of
new media
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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
distributionuser interfacefunctionality
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Three screens
television computer mobile
passiveentertainmentlean back
interactiveproductivitylean forward
interactiveconnectionlean forward
the ambient network
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"By 2011, there will likely be 5.1 billion mobile phone subscribers worldwide.
Traditional twisted pair land lines will be relegated to the dustbin of history.
Not a bad penetration rate given the global population is under 7 billion people."
Pete Sealey, ex-CMO Coca-Cola
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television
printradio
outdoor
interactive
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Holistic systems that properly utilize the true use of traditional media and online interactive media to facilitate
dialogues with, and between, consumers.
Story systems
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Every click is a wish
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Great marketers of the future will not be measured by how well they tell stories to their
audience
but rather by how well their audience tells stories about
them.
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Thank you!