PRESENTATION The Foreclosure Crisis and its Impact on …...PRESENTATION Geoff Smith Foreclosing on...
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Geoff Smith Foreclosing on Community: The Crisis and the Search for Solutions March 19, 2013
The Foreclosure Crisis and its Impact on Cook County’s Communities
© 2 0 1 3 I N S T I T U T E F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S AT D E PA U L U N I V E R S I T Y
Institute for Housing Studies
• IHS’s mission is to provide reliable, impartial, and timely data and research to inform housing policy decisions and discussions about the state of housing in the Chicago region and nationally.
• IHS accomplishes this through:
• Data Collection • Research • Community Engagement
• Today’s presentation
• Foreclosure patterns • Impacts on neighborhoods • Looking forward
Percent of Properties with at Least One Foreclosure Filing, 2005 to 2011
3
Transforming Community – Concentrated Long Term Vacancy
4
40.4% 41.9%
17.7%
23.2%
39.6%
37.3%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
Low Foreclosure Areas Middle Foreclosure Areas High Foreclosure Areas
Share of Addresses Share of Long-‐term Vacant Addresses
Share of Total Addresses Compared to Share of Addresses Vacant More the 24 Months, 2012 4Q
Annual Property Sales in Cook County by Acquisition Method, 2005 to 2011
5
17,228 13,779 13,397 11,730 18,736 19,738 19,337
99,826
85,167
58,512
36,317 28,002 26,485 23,713
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Cash Financed
Transforming Community – How People Buy
6
16.4% 16.1% 19.8% 19.6%
26.7% 29.5% 31.8%
12.3% 11.6% 16.3%
22.2%
36.6% 42.0%
47.1%
16.5% 14.3% 20.8%
39.6%
67.8% 67.4% 68.0%
83.6% 83.9% 80.2% 80.4%
73.3% 70.5% 68.2%
87.7% 88.4% 83.7%
77.8%
63.4% 58.0%
52.9%
83.5% 85.7% 79.2%
60.4%
32.2% 32.6% 32.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Low Foreclosure Moderate Foreclosure High Foreclosure
Cash Financed
Residential Purchases by Method of Acquisition and Neighborhood Foreclosure Level, 2005 to 2011
Transforming Community – Low Value Sales
7
1.3%
3.5% 3.2% 2.7% 2.6%
0.9%
10.2%
33.2%
29.5%
24.1% 23.3%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Low Foreclosure Areas Middle Foreclosure Areas High Foreclosure Areas
Share of Total Sales That Were Less than $20,000 by Neighborhood Foreclosure Level, 2005 to 2012 3Q
Transforming Community – Business Buyers
8
7.4% 6.2%
4.8% 5.8% 5.6%
9.1% 10.2%
8.3%
5.6% 5.3% 4.7%
7.7%
10.8% 11.4%
13.7% 14.2%
11.3% 10.0%
12.8%
19.8%
29.0% 27.7% 28.2% 27.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Low Foreclosure Areas Middle Foreclosure Areas High Foreclosure Areas
Share of Total Sales That Were to Self-Identified Business Buyers by Neighborhood Foreclosure Level, 2005 to 2012 3Q
Transforming Community – Access to Credit
9
27.5
24.8
21.7
16.3 16.5
14.6
12.5
32.6
29.4
22.3
13.2
10.7
8.8 7.7
38.9
36.3
25.3
13.1
8.4
5.8 4.9
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Low Foreclosure Areas Middle Foreclosure Areas High Foreclosure Areas
Mortgage Originations per 100 Residential Parcels by Neighborhood Foreclosure Level, 2005 to 2012 3Q
Percent of Properties with at Least One Foreclosure Filing, 2005 to 2011
1 0
11
Where are neighborhoods headed?
1 2
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1997Q1
1997Q2
1997Q3
1997Q4
1998Q1
1998Q2
1998Q3
1998Q4
1999Q1
1999Q2
1999Q3
1999Q4
2000Q1
2000Q2
2000Q3
2000Q4
2001Q1
2001Q2
2001Q3
2001Q4
2002Q1
2002Q2
2002Q3
2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
2005Q1
2005Q2
2005Q3
2005Q4
2006Q1
2006Q2
2006Q3
2006Q4
2007Q1
2007Q2
2007Q3
2007Q4
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
Calumet City/ Harvey Chicago -‐ Lakeview/ Lincoln Park Chicago -‐ AusOn
Chicago -‐ Garfield Park/ Humboldt Park Chicago -‐ West Town/ Logan Square Chicago -‐ Loop and Surrounding
Chicago -‐ Bridgeport/ Brighton Park Chicago -‐ Bronzeville/ Hyde Park Chicago -‐ Chatham/ Woodlawn/ South Shore
Chicago -‐ South Chicago/ Hegewisch
Price Changes for Single Family Homes and Condominiums by Cook County Submarket, 1997 Q1 to 2012 Q4
Change in Household Tenure Choice Cook County, 2000 to 2011
1 3 35.0%
36.0%
37.0%
38.0%
39.0%
40.0%
41.0%
42.0%
43.0%
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Renter-‐Occupied Owner-‐Occupied Rental Rate
© 2 0 1 3 I N S T I T U T E F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S AT D E PA U L U N I V E R S I T Y
Source: 2005 to 2011 American CommuniOes Survey and 2000 US Census
Change in Renters Households by Income Level City of Chicago and Suburban Cook County, 2007 to 2011
1 4
17,788
9,687 10,582
4,307 4,224
5,879
12,391
10,732
5,464
-‐1,502 -‐1,495 -‐1,538
-‐5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
<$20 $20-‐34 $35-‐49 $50-‐74 $75-‐100 $100+
City of Chicago Suburban Cook
© 2 0 1 3 I N S T I T U T E F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S AT D E PA U L U N I V E R S I T Y
Source: 2007 to 2011 American CommuniOes Survey
Change in Supply of and Demand for Affordable Rental Housing Suburban Cook County, 2000 to 2011
1 5
123,700 118,842 118,794 119,398
144,801
87,328
71,023 71,138 70,407
85,176
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2000 2005 2007 2009 2011
Demand Supply Gap
© 2 0 1 3 I N S T I T U T E F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S AT D E PA U L U N I V E R S I T Y
Source: 2005 to 2011 American CommuniOes Survey and 2000 US Census
Change in Supply of and Demand for Affordable Rental Housing City of Chicago, 2000 to 2011
1 6
408,113
342,488 336,067
363,387 365,831
338,638
225,414 226,450 232,435 247,497
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2000 2005 2007 2009 2011
Demand Supply Gap
© 2 0 1 3 I N S T I T U T E F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S AT D E PA U L U N I V E R S I T Y
Source: 2005 to 2011 American CommuniOes Survey and 2000 US Census
The Foreclosure Crisis and its Impact on Cook County’s Communities
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Foreclosing on Community: The Crisis and the Search for Solutions March 19, 2013