Presentation Slides: Understanding and Using Weather and Climate Information: Early Warning Early...

8/11/2019 Presentation Slides: Understanding and Using Weather and Climate Information: Early Warning Early Action (EWEA)

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WEATHER REPORTS FROM THE FUTUREUN Climate Summit 2014: Catalyzing Action

How will climate change impact our weather in the year 2050? Watch weatherreports from the future

If humanitys GHG emissions continue to increase, the average temperature of theEarths lower atmosphere could rise more than 4 degrees celcius by the end of the21 st century. But what does a global average temperature rise really mean? How

would we experience it on a daily basis?

Weather report from the year 2050 TV weather presenters present possible scenarios(NOT TRUE FORECASTS).

But they are based on the most-up-to-date climate science and they paint acompelling picture of what life could be like on a warmer planet.

THESE WORST CASE FUTURES DO NOT NEED TO HAPPEN!http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hbne3q9Xers&feature=youtu.be
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hbne3q9Xers&feature=youtu.behttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hbne3q9Xers&feature=youtu.behttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hbne3q9Xers&feature=youtu.behttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hbne3q9Xers&feature=youtu.be


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Understanding and

Using Weatherand

Climate Information Early Warning

Action


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Early Warning, Early Action


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Early Warning, Early Action means

Routinely takinghumanitarian actionbefore a disaster orhealth emergencyhappens, making fulluse of scientificinformation on all

timescales.

Using climate and weatherinformation to take actionbefore a disaster strikes, inorder to reduce negativeimpacts.


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As the climate changes, we can expectmore extreme weather events, more often

Photo: NASAPhoto: Danish Red Cross


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Climate Training Kit. Module 8: Understanding and Using EW Infomation

Disaster

Response

Traditional Approach


7/37Climate Training Kit. Module 8: Understanding and Using EW Infomation

Disaster

Early Action

Early Warning

Response

Enhanced approach


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Why Early Warning, Early Action?

Extreme events have implicationsfor health, livelihoods, water, foodsecurity, and others.

Climate and weather informationcan help anticipate and prepare forchanging risks.


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The elements ofEarly Warning, Early Action

Knowledge: Collecting data tounderstand risks

Monitoring: Collaboration withhazard monitoring services

Communication: Sharinginformation about hazards

Action: building responsecapability Preparing forpending hazards.


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RiskKnowledge

Are hazards andvulnerabilities well

known? What are their

patterns and trends?

Are risks maps anddata available?

Key questions toconsider whendesigning EW-EA Plan


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Monitoring(The trickier side of Early Warning,

Early Action)

Hazard monitoring can include, for example, river gaugesfor floods and scientific forecasts for extreme rain ordrought

Forecasts issued for days, weeks and months in advance Collaboration with national meteorological service is a good

add on to access information


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Communication

Do warnings reach all ofthose at risk?

Are the risks and thewarnings well understood?

Is the warning informationclear and usable?

Key questions to considerwhen designing

EW-EA Plan


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Early Warning, Early Action means

Using climate and weatherinformation to take action before

a disaster strikes, in order toreduce negative impacts


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Account for evolving risk andrising uncertainty

Accommodate multiple timescales

...we respondto w arn ings , no t

disasters

New good IFRC guides


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Early warning, early action

Bridging time scales Climate changeRising risks, trends,

more surprises

Seasonal forecastsLevel of risk in coming months

Regular forecasts Impending hazard


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Forecast Caveats(time to take action versus specificity)

3 10 day forecasts (short leadtime, very specific)


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Monthly and seasonal forecasts(more lead time, less specific)


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Climate change predictions (even morelead time, even less specific)


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Long lead-time forecastscant say it all about the future

Long-term forecasts are not precise .They can only tell what is m ore l ikely tohappen over a large area.

We need to also monitor shorter-term

weather forecasts to b et ter ant ic ipate when, where or how severe.


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Seasonal rainfall forecast issued October2010 for upcoming November-January


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Areas that experienced flooding ordrought that November-January


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Early Action Paid Off:

Faster response: 1-2 days rather than 40 in2007

Fewer victims ( 30 instead of hundreds) Lower cost per beneficiary ( 30% )

Example: Red Crossvolunteers in Ghanasaving lives by alerting

Volta fishermen thatthe Bagre dam wouldbe spilled.


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Which forecasts are useful forhumanitarian decisions?

What kind of early actions should be taken in the

short term? long term?medium term?


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you risk missing critical information

in the short term.

If you only monitor the long term,

you risk missing critical informationin the long term.

And, if you only monitor the short term


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Can we unders tand what themet office is telling us?

For monitoring, partnerships with information centers are crucial, but.


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Defining triggers for action that are

LOW-COST

NO-REGRETSBENEFICIAL

Not Easy!


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establishing triggers

Draw on past knowledge of disasters Establish and document triggers well before

a hazard arrives

Ensure internal support and externalpartnerships are in place especially with thegovernment.

Focus on low-cost, no-regrets, beneficialsolutions.


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TAKING ACTION, ESTABLISHING TRIGGERS

Tailor actions to likelihood of hazard. Understand and accept the risks of

taking action if a hazard does notmaterialize.

Understand and accept the risks of not

taking action if a hazard materializes.


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Putting it all togetherExamples of Early Warning Early Action

Early Warning: In 2007, the Bangladesh Red Crescentreceived early warning indicators of Cyclone Sidrapproaching their coast.

Early Action: Working with the government 5,000 volunteerswith megaphones alerted and evacuated at risk residents. As result 4,500 people died compared to 138,000 in 1991.


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Early Warning, Early Action pays off Thecase of West Africa

Most countries got supplies just days after flooding in 2008.(In 2007, flood operations were an estimated 40 days late).

Faster arrival of relief saved lives, minimized health impacts,protected livelihoods and enabled communities to recover.

In 2007 an emergency dam spillage cost 30 lives. In 2008,dam release times were scheduled, allowing Red Crossvolunteers to warn communities ahead of time. This time onlytwo lives were lost.

Resources were used more efficiently: 33 per cent less spentper beneficiary in 2008 than in two previous years.


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Low-cost actions beneficial,even if floods hadnt materialized

Updating contingency plans Training of trainers and increase of volunteer capacity

Paperwork for border crossing and health insurance handledin advance for relief teams

Relief items strategically placed in three regional warehouses,(instead of depending on supplies from Dubai)

Shorter-term early warning systems established and checked

Relationships formed with forecasting agencies, so the RedCross Red Crescent received timely warnings

Relationships formed with government authorities to allow forearly actions.


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Early warning isa chain of people linked to

a chain of ac t ionsthat make it work!


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Early Warning Action ScenarioExercise Objectives

On completion this exercise, participants willhave and understanding of: Using weather and climate information on

different time-scales act before disasterhappen

How long term climate trends can beaddressed through disaster preparedness andlong term risk reduction work


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Early Warning/Early Action Exercise

Group : Floods

Group 3: Cyclones

Group 2: Drought

Group 4: Sea Level Rise


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E-mail: [email protected]

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