Presentation Slide for AAG Annual Meeting in 2013
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Transcript of Presentation Slide for AAG Annual Meeting in 2013
Development of the System for Early Adaptation to Climate Change in Mongolia
Akihiro OBA1), Wanglin YAN1), Balt SUVDANTSETSEG2),
Masataka WATANABE1), Chuluun TOGTOKH2),
Bolar-Erdane LKHAMSUREN3)
1)Keio University, Japan2)National University of Mongolia, Mongolia
3)Kangwon National University, Korea
1/14
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
201020,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
year
Economic Liberalization
Extremely Increased Mortalityby Extreme Weather(Zud)
Decision-making fromadaptation options ineach county(Sum)
Early Adaptation
Introduction Res.Met. Con.
10 thou. headsOur Goal
CAP
Overgrazing
(Alta
nbag
ana
and
Chu
luun
, 201
0) Return to Carrying Capacity and Stable Grazing
ex. selling animalsbefore market season
Livestock Dynamics and Early Adaptation2/14
Introduction Res.Met. Con.
ObjectiveTo show a framework of early adaptation to zud through web based adaptation support system for herders and mayors
LEWS<http://glews.tamu.edu/Mongolia>
Scientific Data Did Not Put to Practical Use for Zud
Year Book National Atlas
Meteorological Data /Vegetation Data
Statistical Data GIS Data
Drought Warning Map Remote Sensing Data
Unsolved Zud Problem, in 2010
These information don’t reach to local people: Gap
Landsat Data in MongoliaDrought Maphttp://goo.gl/bdwJy
3/14
Framework: How to Use Scientific Data for Adaptation PracticeIntro. Res.Method Con.
④Interview to Central Government
Interview about Current Action after Zud and
Communication Method
Interview about Needs of Data & Support System from Herders & Mayors
Evaluation Gap between Data Needs and Current
Monitoring Data
Integrated Database from Existing Databases
System Design / Development of Interface
Sort-out of Adaptation Policy in Each Sum
User Test and Implementation
Practice of Adaptation Policy by Mayors and
Herders
Early A
daptation before Zud
Recommended Adaptation Policies with Data
①Database
③System Development
Zud Organizing Stakeholders
②Field Interview
4/14
Intro. Method
Exisitng Databases (Data Souces)
PostGISIntegrate
Vegetation, Weather Statistics
GIS RS
Development of Spatial Database
Evaluation of Database AccuracyDeveloped Databases (Data Souces)
Existing Zud Index by Authors Data2)
1)Angerer J, Sean G, Doug T (2009) Technology Transfer Part I: Implementation of the Livestock Early Warning System in Mongolia. Global Livestock CRSP, Research Brief 09-01-GOBI, Univ. of California-Davis.2)Chuluun T, Altanbagana M, Tserenchunt B (2011) Land degradation and desertification in Mongolia. Background paper for the Mongolia Human Development Report 2011.
Zud Index by Developed Database
Result of Nonparametric Analysis of Variance (Kruskal-Wallis): No Difference (p < 0.05)
Analyzed Colored Area
New
Database1)
Development of Database and Evaluate AccuracyResult Con.①Database5/14
②Field Interview
Date: 9/18 – 9/30, 2012Survey: Interview to Herders, MayorsArea: 12 Sums, 3 Aimags (5 landscape zones)
Field Interview to Herders and MayorsSteppe Zone
Gobi Zone
Forest Steppe Zone
Interview to MayorsInterview to Herders
Intro. ResultMet. Con.6/10
7
Q. What information do you need for adaptation to zud?(Open Discussion)
A. Weather Info, Zud Info, Market Price of Each Market, Non-Snowed Area(Herders) On the top of above, detail information with map(Mayors)→This information is already provided by government and academic institution. However, they had not reached to local people. Thus, sending system is needed for them.
②Field Interview Intro. ResultMet. Con.
74%4%
17%2% 2%
Gobi- Altai
44%
6%11%
17%
22%
Omnogobi
88%
13%
Tuv Weather InformationNothing in particularMining points within or around SumNews that relates ZudRangeland that is warm or has no snow during winter
68%3%
6%
15%
1%
1%6%
Total News that relates Zud
Rangeland that is warm or has no snow during winter
Market Price
Information that relates gov-ernment
7/14
8 ②Field Interview Intro. ResultMet. Con.
4%20%
70%
7%
Govi- Altai
6%
89%
6%
Omnogobi
100%
Tuv
3%14%
78%
6%
Total Community groups
Family or relatives
No advices
Sum government
Q.Who is the first for you to ask for help? Relatives? Neighbors? Or community?(Gobi-Altai:N=48, Omnogobi: N=18, Tuv:N=8)
→Current communication level among herders becomes not strong. Adaptation information should be sent to each herder directly.
8/14
9%
22%
4%54%
7% 4%
Gobi- Altai
28%
44%
6%
11%11%
Omnogobi
38%
13%
25%
25%
Tuv
17%
26%
7%
40%
4% 6%
Total Early sales or kills
Move to other range-land
Keep or buy pastures for winter
No idea
Buy livestock animals
Other
Q. How will you do in next zud if it can practice early adaptation to zud?
A. Early Sales or Kills, Keep Forage, Move to Other Rangeland→Adaptation policies are listed by based on local knowledge.
②Field Interview Intro. ResultMet. Con.9/14
Framework for Adaptation to Zud③System Development
PostgreSQL( Database )
Map Based Information
Attributes
Intro. ResultMet. Con.
Sum Mayors
Text Based Information・ Recommended Adaptation Policy by Based on Last Zud Damage・ Market Information・ Non-Snowed Information by Using Local Location Name
Herders
Mobile PhonePC/Smart Phone
Data Flow for Herders and Mayors
10/14
Server in Mobile Company
Intro. ResultMet. Con.
①Zud Information with Basic Information of each Sum
②Detail Information
④Visualized Estimationof Vulnerability
⑤RecommendedAdaptation Plans
③Sum’s Location with GIS Data
③System Development
Developing Interface for Mayors
11/14
Interface: Flash, Map Interface: Google Maps
Developing Interface for Herders
Recommended Adaptation Policy by Based on Last Zud Damage
Market Information
Non-Snowed Information by Using Local Location Name
Weekly Weather Information
③System Development12/14
Interface: Email
Evaluation by Central Government• System Evaluation
-Of course quite important. After test, we’d like to consider to introduce for whole country• Current method to send information to local herders and mayors
-Local TV and Radio, Traditional Communication Method• Whole framework for zud as a country scale
-Alert by Central Government, and Emergency Savings for Hazards• Current responsibility, insurance in zud information
-Nothing
Date: 1/22 – 1/23, 2013Survey: Interview to Directors of Ministry of Food and
Security, Green Development, Advisor to President
13/14
Conclusion
This study achieved Gaps between preparedness and awareness in government and herders. We developed WebGIS based system for zud adaptation to fit these gaps.
○Herders and mayors mainly need any kinds of zud information, weather information, market information, and migrate-able area to prevent from zud.
○Mayors and herders exchange their information by using mobile phone. However, their local communication became weak nowadays. It needs to send info directly to people.
This study shows a framework for adaptation to zud.○Framework of the system becomes 2 steps: detail
information with map by based on web system for mayors, and text based simple info on cell-phone system for herders.
Next Step○We need to test developed system in actual area.
Intro. ResultMet. Conclusion14/14
Thank you for attention!
Contact• Mail: [email protected]• Adress: Keio University Z203, Yanlab, Endo 5322, Fujisawa, Kanagawa, Japan• Tel:+81-466-49-2227• Fax:+81-466-49-2228