Presentation on constant price GDP...地產發展商：地產發展項目 Real estate developers :...

本地生產總值講座 A Talk on Gross Domestic Product

二零零五年九月八日（星期四） 8 September 2005 (Thursday)

中華人民共和國香港特別行政區

政府統計處

Census and Statistics DepartmentHong Kong Special Administrative Region

People’s Republic of China

2

1. 簡介 Introduction

2. 四個主要行業

Four key industries

3. 金融中介服務 Financial intermediation services (FIS)

4. 討論及總結

Discussion and concluding remarks

目錄Contents

四個主要行業 Four Key Industries

4

引言Introduction

四個主要行業

Four Key Industries‧

金融服務

Financial services‧

貿易及物流

Trading and logistics‧

旅遊

Tourism‧

專業服務及其他工商業支援服務

Professional services and other producer services

5

引言 (續)Introduction (cont’d)

重要性

Importance‧

香港經濟動力

the driving force of Hong Kong’s economic growth

‧ 帶動其他行業發展

providing impetus to growth of other sectors‧

製造就業

creating employment

6

金融服務的增加價值及就業人數Value added and employment of Financial Services

增加價值

就業人數

Value added

Employment

佔以要素成本計算的本地生產總值百分比

% share to GDPat factor cost in 2003

金融服務

Financial servicesa. 銀行

Bankingb. 保險

Insurancec. 其他金融服務

Other financial services

平均每年變動百分率

Average annual% change1998-2003

佔總就業人數百分比

% share to total employment in 2003



12.3% 4.4% 5.2% -0.2%

8.5% 2.1% 2.2% -2.3%

1.5% 9.9% 1.2% 3.8%

2.4% 11.5% 1.7% 0.3%

觀察

Observation:

-

高人均增加價值

High value added per person

7

增加價值Value Added

增加價值

Value added

生產總額（例如銷貨價值，服務收益）Gross Output (e.g. sales of goods, receipts from services rendered)

中間投產消耗（例如購買材料及供應品，租金）

Intermediate Consumption (e.g. purchase of materials and supplies, rental)

=

-

8

貿易及物流Trading and Logistics

定義

Definition‧

籌劃、實施和控制貨物

the process of planning, implementing and controlling the movement and

storage of goods

物流業

≠

物流活動

Logistics industries ≠ Logistics activities

9

貿易及物流的增加價值及就業人數Value added and employment of Trading and Logistics



貿易及物流

Trading and Logisticsa. 貿易

Tradingb. 物流

Logistics





26.3% 3.0% 23.9% 0.1%

21.5% 2.8% 18.0% 0.3%

4.9% 4.1% 5.9% -0.5%

增加價值

就業人數

Value added

Employment



10

旅遊Tourism

範圍

Coverage‧

入境旅遊

Inbound tourism‧

外訪旅遊

Outbound tourism‧

本地旅遊

Domestic tourism

11

旅遊 (續)Tourism (cont’d)

旅遊比率 Tourism ratio (R i )

經濟活動 i 的旅客收益 business receipts from visitors in

economic activity i

經濟活動 i 的總業務收益 Total business receipts in economic activity i

=

增加價值 Value added = ΣVA i

x R ii = 1

n

就業人數 Employment = ΣEmployment i

x R ii = 1

n

i 指旅遊相關的經濟活動 i refers to tourism-related economic activity

12

旅遊的增加價值及就業人數Value added and employment of Tourism



旅遊

Tourisma. 入境旅遊

Inbound tourismb. 外訪旅遊

Outbound tourism





2.3% 1.8% 4.3% 5.8%

1.6% 1.7% 3.6% 6.5%

0.7% 2.0% 0.7% 2.4%

增加價值

就業人數

Value added

Employment



13

工商業支援服務Producer services

重要性

Importance‧

把香港從一個製造業中心轉化為

以工商業支援服務為主的服務中心 transforming Hong Kong from a

manufacturing centre into a service hub dominated by producer services

14

工商業支援服務 (續)Producer services (cont’d)

定義

Definition‧

提供本地經濟體系內其他公司使用的服務

以及向海外公司及個別人士輸出的服務 services for use by other companies in the

local economy and exports of services to overseas companies and individuals

15

範圍

Coverage‧

覆蓋很廣的經濟活動範圍包括：

covers a wide range of economic activities including :

進出口貿易

import and export trade

貨物運輸

freight transport 貿易融資

trade financing

貨物保險

insurance services on goods 商業用途的消費

consumed for business purposes


16

編製工商業支援服務統計數字的方法

Method of compiling producer services statistics

‧ 例如：證券經紀服務

Example : stock brokerage services適當的代指標：有關證券經紀從

公司客戶賺取經營收入總額的資料 Relevant proxy indicator : statistics

of gross operating income of stock brokers earned from institutional clients


17

其他工商業支援服務

Other producer services‧

指不包括在金融服務、物流服務及

旅遊服務三個主要行業的工商業支援服務

refer to producer services other than those covered in the three key industries of financial services, trading and logistics, and tourism


18

專業服務及其他工商業支援服務的增加價值及就業人數Value added and employment of Professional services and

Other producer services



專業服務及

其他工商業支援服務 Professional services and Other producer services

a. 專業服務

Professional servicesb. 其他工商業支援服務

Other producer services





10.3% -3.6% 10.9% 2.8%

3.6% 0.2% 3.9% 3.4%

6.8% -5.3% 7.0% 2.4%

增加價值

就業人數

Value added

Employment



金融中介服務 Financial intermediation services (FIS)

20

香港已採用最新國際指引處理由銀行所提供的金融中介服務International guidelines on dealing with financial intermediation services provided by banks are implemented in Hong Kong

已實施的經濟體系：德國、法國及美國Implemented in Germany, France and the USA

將會在未來數月實施的經濟體系：英國及盧森堡Will be implemented in the coming few months in the UK and

Luxembourg

本地生產總值的素質得以提升The quality of GDP statistics is improved

更清楚反映銀行服務對經濟的貢獻，特別是銀行服務在私人消費及

服務輸出方面的貢獻Reflect better the contribution of banking services to the economy, particularly in the private consumption and exports of banking

services

重點Key points

21

重點 (續) Key points (cont’d)

‧ 以往有關經濟増長的分析不受影響Previous analysis of economic growth is not affected

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

2002Q1

2002Q2

2002Q3

2002Q4

2003Q1

2003Q2

2003Q3

2003Q4

2004Q1

2004Q2

2004Q3

2004Q4

2005Q1

------ 修訂前 / Before revision修訂後 / After revision

實質增長率 /growth rate in

real terms按年實質增長率只輕微

修訂(±0.2個百分點)year-on-year real growth rates are marginally revised (±0.2% point)

22

金融中介服務的概念 Concept of FIS

金融中介服務：把資金從存款者轉移到貸款者Financial intermediation services: channeling funds from depositors to borrowers

向存款者提供的服務：Services to depositors:

設立分行及自動櫃員機以方便存款、轉帳和提款

establish branches and ATM machines to facilitate deposit,transfer and withdrawal of funds

提供網上銀行服務provision of internet banking services

存款保管safe custody of money

向貸款者提供的服務：Services to borrowers:

調動資金提供信貸安排給貸款者mobilize funds to provide credit facilities to borrowers

承擔拖欠還款風險bear the default risks

23

金融中介服務特別處理方法 Methodology for special treatment of FIS

間接收費： Indirect charges:

銀行以較高的利率借出款項，又以較低的利率借入

款項，間接地從中收取費用 Bank charge indirectly by lending at higher interest rates

and borrowing at lower interest rates

銀行和客戶都不會知道所生產及使用的金融中介服務

的市場價值 Both banks and customers do not know the market value

of FIS (financial intermediation services)

24

需要估計各用戶使用的金融中介服務的價值 Need to estimate the value of FIS consumed by various users

住戶 Households

工商業 Business sector

例子：

進/出口商：貿易融資

Example : Import / export firms : trade financing

地產發展商：地產發展項目

Real estate developers : real estate development project

非本地居民 Non-residents

本地銀行向非本地居民貸款及接受非本地居民存款

loans to non-residents by resident banks, and deposits from non-residents

25

新方法：參照利率方法 New method : reference rate method

方法十分複雜，需要很長時間去解決概念上和實際上的問題

Methodology is quite complex, requires considerable period of time to resolve conceptual and practical issues

已實施最新方法的經濟體系：德國、法國及美國 Latest method implemented in Germany, France and USA

將會在未來數月實施最新方法的經濟體系：英國及盧森堡 Latest method will be implemented in the coming few

months in UK and Luxembourg

最新的國際指引 Latest international guidelines

26

參照利率方法 Reference rate method

實際貸款利率7%Actual interest rate on

loans 7%

參照利率 3%Reference rate 3%

實際存款利率1%Actual interest rate

on deposits 1%

3% -

1% = 2%

銀行向貸款者提供金融中介服務

賺取的息差Interest margin that banks earned for providing financial intermediation services to borrowers

銀行向存款者提供金融中介服務賺

取的息差Interest margin that banks earned for providing financial intermediation services to depositors

7% -

3% = 4%

27

參照利率：毫無風險的利率，並不包括任何金融中介服務。

Reference rate : risk-free interest rate and does not include any financial intermediation services

所需數據：各類存款者/貸款者的存款/貸款金額；及這些存款/貸款的利率

Data required : amounts of deposits and loansby different types of depositors / borrowers; andthe respective interest rates

參照利率方法 (續) Reference rate method (cont’d)

28

應用參照利率方法的例子 – 住戶 An example to illustrate the application of

reference rate method -

Households

住戶在銀行存款一萬元，年利率1厘 Household deposits $10,000, interest rate at

1% per annum

住戶使用金融中介服務的價值 :

Value of FIS consumed by the household: = $ 10,000 x (3% -

1%) = $ 200

住戶私人貸款一萬元，年利率7厘 Household borrows $10,000 personal loans, interest rate

at 7% per annum

住戶使用金融中介服務的價值：

Value of FIS consumed by the household: = $ 10,000 x (7% -

3%) = $ 400

29

應用參照利率方法的例子 – 住戶 (續) An example to illustrate the application of

reference rate method – Households (cont’d)

$ 200及$ 400應包括在以開支面編製的本地生產總值的私人消費開支

$ 200 and $ 400 should be included the private consumption expenditure in the GDP by

expenditure approach

30

應用參照利率方法的例子 – 商業機構 An example to illustrate the application of

reference rate method – Business establishments 進出口貿易公司向銀行借貸一百萬元作貿易融資，

年利率6厘An import/export firm borrows $1 Mn

from a bank for

trade financing, interest rate at 6% per annum

進出口貿易公司使用金融中介服務的價值：Value of FIS consumed by the import/export firm: = $ 1,000,000 x (6% -

3%) = $ 30,000

三萬元應歸類為進出口貿易業的中間投產消耗及從該行業的增加價值中扣除

$ 30,000 should be included in the intermediate consumption (IC) of import/export trading sector and

hence deducted from its value added (VA) (VA = GO –

IC)

31

應用參照利率方法的例子 – 非本地居民 An example to illustrate the application of

reference rate method – Non-residents 非本地居民公司向銀行借貸一千萬元，

年利率4厘 A non-resident company obtains a loan of

$ 10 Mn

from a bank in Hong Kong, interest rate at 4% per annum

非本地居民公司使用金融中介服務的價值： Value of FIS consumed by the non-resident

company: = $ 10,000,000 x (4% -

3%) = $ 100,000

十萬元應歸類為服務輸出

$ 100,000 should be included in the exports of services

32

修訂後的國民經濟核算統計數字 Revised national accounts statistics

本地生產總值Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

近年本地生產總值數字向上修訂約2%Level of GDP is revised upwards by around 2%

in recent years (2000-2004)

年份Year

修訂幅度Extent of revision

2000 2.1%

2001 2.3%

2002 2.3%

2003 2.1%

2004 1.7%

33

修訂後的國民經濟核算統計數字 (續) Revised national accounts statistics (cont’d)

近年按開支組成部分劃分的本地生產總值GDP by expenditure component in recent years

私人消費開支Private consumption expenditure (PCE)

數值向上修訂約為本地生產總值的1.5%Figures are revised upwards by around 1.5% of GDP

修訂幅度接近法國及德國Extent of revision is similar to France and Germany

服務輸出淨額Net exports of services

數值向上修訂約為本地生產總值的0.5%Figures are revised upwards by around 0.5% of GDP

修訂幅度高於法國及德國Extent of revision is higher than France and Germany

34

按經濟活動劃分的本地生產總值GDP by economic activity

各個經濟行業佔以要素成本計算的本地生產總值的百分

都向下修訂The percentage shares of various economic sectors in GDP at factor cost are revised downwards

新方法可以估計各經濟行業使用的金融中介服務的價值The new method provides estimates of financial intermediation services consumed by various economic sectors

進出口貿易業和地產業 : 增加價值所佔的比例向下修訂幅度較大Import/export trading sector and real estate sector :larger downward revision in the value added shares

修訂後的國民經濟核算統計數字 (續) Revised national accounts statistics (cont’d)

35

2003年選定經濟行業的增加價值佔以要素成本計算的本地生產總值的比例

Value added shares of selected economic sectors in GDP at factor cost in 2003

13.1%

5.3% 4.7% 4.1%

20.6%

12.3%

4.0% 4.5% 3.7%

21.6%

0

5

10

15

20

25

進出口貿易Import & export trade

金融及保險Financing and insurance

地產Real estate

商用服務Business services

製造業Manufacturing

%

修訂前 / Before revision

修訂後 / After revision

36

如何獲得更詳細的數據及資料 How to obtain further data and information

政府統計處網站：The website of Census and Statistics Department : http://www.info.gov.hk/censtatd/

所有修訂數字All revised data

專題文章：”採用最新國際指引編製香港國民經濟核算中金融中介服務統計數字”Feature article : “Implementation of the Latest InternationalGuidelines in the Compilation of Financial IntermediationServices Statistics in National Accounts of Hong Kong”

小冊子：“認識本地生產總值中金融中介服務的編製”Pamphlet: “Understanding the Financial Intermediation Services in Gross Domestic Product Compilation”

http://www.info.gov.hk/censtatd/

Discussion and Concluding

Remarks

��本地生產總值講座 �A Talk on Gross Domestic Product��二零零五年九月八日（星期四）�8 September 2005 (Thursday)1. 簡介� Introduction��2. 四個主要行業� Four key industries��3. 金融中介服務� Financial intermediation services (FIS)��4. 討論及總結� Discussion and concluding remarks四個主要行業�Four Key Industries投影片編號 4投影片編號 5投影片編號 6投影片編號 7投影片編號 8投影片編號 9投影片編號 10投影片編號 11投影片編號 12投影片編號 13投影片編號 14投影片編號 15投影片編號 16投影片編號 17投影片編號 18金融中介服務�Financial intermediation services (FIS)投影片編號 20投影片編號 21金融中介服務的概念 �Concept of FIS金融中介服務特別處理方法�Methodology for special treatment of FIS 需要估計各用戶使用的金融中介服務的價值�Need to estimate the value of FIS consumed by various users 投影片編號 25參照利率方法 �Reference rate method投影片編號 27投影片編號 28投影片編號 29投影片編號 30投影片編號 31修訂後的國民經濟核算統計數字�Revised national accounts statistics修訂後的國民經濟核算統計數字 (續)�Revised national accounts statistics (cont’d)修訂後的國民經濟核算統計數字 (續)�Revised national accounts statistics (cont’d)投影片編號 35如何獲得更詳細的數據及資料�How to obtain further data and information 投影片編號 37投影片編號 38

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