Can Agriculture feed our world?

125 years KLV

Prof Martin Kropff, Rector Magnificus Wageningen University

Global ChallengesFood security

Climate change/

Tipping points

Biobased Economy

StewardshipFood nutrition

& health

AGRI FOOD

Food securityFood availability (kcal/person/day)

2220

1590

3760

3490

2930

2470

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Africa Congo, Dem .Republic of

USA TheNetherlands

China India

Global production

Hunger threshold

Recommended

Distribution or production locally?

Food to feed the worldWorld population

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Billion

WORLD

DEVELOPING WORLD

DEVELOPED WORLD

The challenge for mankind

2x more with 2 x less

Projected effect of climate change

Cline, W. R. 2007. Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country. Washington D.C., USA: Peterson Institute.

Possible interventions

Innovative greenhouse

GMO

Agronomy Institutions

Possible interventions

Greenhouse as energy source

GMO

Agronomy Institutions

Possible interventions

Greenhouse as energy source

GMO

Agronomy Institutions

shine

Possible interventions

Greenhouse as energy source

GMO

Agronomy Institutions

shine

Possible interventions

Greenhouse as energy source

GMO

Agronomy Institutions

shine

Technological options: Productivity

Technological options: Productivity increase

!

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0Cultivation area (Million hectares)

Ma

ize

yie

ld (

ton

/ha

)

Western AfricaWestern Europe

Arable land (m hectare)

West AfricaWest Europe

Maï

s oo

gst

(ton

/hec

tare

)

Technological options: Two strategies

Theoretical maximum yield

Actual yield

Theoretical maximum yield

Actual yield

Yield gap

Decrease the Yield-gap

Yield gap

Increase maximum yield

GMO?

Food

Materials

Energy

Technological options: Biobased Economy

Technological/Socio-economic options

Climate change: Agriculture as part of the solution

Food to feed the worldFarming systems adapted to climate changeMitigating climate change

Technological/socio-economic options Roughly 1/3 of food produced

for human consumption is lost or wasted globally. Which amounts to about 1.3 billion tons per year (FAO, 2011 Institutions

the Netherlands total shrinkage in the food chain values € 4.4 billion

Socio economic options

Co-innovation (topsectors global) Institutions

Financial mechanisms Intermediate co-ordination (AGRA....) Governance at the global level

• Which current mechanisms work?

• How do we handle financial crises?

• Will we be able to handle major food crises?

Is there a role for the Netherlands?

Government

IndustryKnowledge

institutions

Coherent

Connected

Committed

PPP

Sector innovative and world leading (2nd exporter)

Knowledge infrastructure world class

world wide networks Education: capacity building, exchange Research: programs Innovation: international PPP based in regions

Golden triangles in regions of the world Universities and research institutes (regional) Governments Businesses

Solutions through international co-operation?

America

Asia

Africa

Conclusions

2 x more with 2 x less (eco-efficiency)

Biobased economy (waste, valorisation, P)

Agriculture and climate change: triple win (A, M, F)

Approach through PPPs, invest in AR

New international governance systems (long term thinking)

Agriculture can feed the world!

Opening of the Conference of ELLS

Rector Magnificus