CONTENT

Introduction Heuristic Types

Gaze heuristicRecognition heuristicSocial heuristicHeuristics Based on Reasons

Take the best heuristicTallying heuristic

Hindsight biasConclusion

Introduction

WHAT to DO STAY

QUIT

?

Heuristic is a rule:

A rule is not necessarily a heuristic, unless it embodies 3 qualities

Heuristics Versus Rules

1-Heuristics exploit evolved capacities

2-Heuristics exploit structures of environments

3- heuristics are distinct from “as if” optimization

models

What is Unbounded Rationality ?

Unbounded Rationality

infinite amount of time

infinite amount of time

all relevan

t information

all relevan

t information

In models of Bounded

Rationality (Simon’s term):

how do humans who

have little time & knowledge

behave?

3 Programs associated with bounded rationality

1

•The study of optimization under constraints.

2

•The study of cognitive illusion.

3

•The study of fast & frugal heuristic.

Simon’s vision of bounded rationality Simon: Human rational behavior is

structure of task

environment

capabilities of the actor

Heuristic Types

Gaze Heuristic

Gaze heuristic PRABOBOLA Initial Distance Initial Velocity Projection Angle Projection Speed Direction of The Wind

No such robots exist yet!

RUNNING SPEED

ANGLE OF GAZE REMAINS CONSTANT

NOT COMPUTE THE POINT AT WHICH THE BALL WILL LAND, BUT HE WILL BE

THERE

Gaze heuristic

FAST and FRUGAL

Gaze heuristic

Gaze heuristic

Gaze heuristic

Gaze heuristic

Heuristic Type

Recognition Heuristics

TWO CITIES IN

UNITED STATES

San Diego

San Antonio

Recognition heuristic

GERMAN

Which city has more inhabitant?

33 %

66 %

SAN ANTONIO

SAN DIEGO 100 %

0 %

AMERICAN

WHATHAPPENED …!?

Less Knowledge

More Correct Inference

Ecological Rationality:

Correlation between recognition & criteria

Recognition validity:

α = R / ( R + W )

recognition information

further knowledge

less-is-more effect

Less-is-more in groups

The less-is-more effect

)1(

)1(

2

1

)1(

)1)((

)1(

)(2

NN

nn

NN

nNnN

NN

nNnc

N: number of objectsn: number of recognized objectsα: recognition validityβ: knowledge validity

The recognition heuristic will yield a less-is-more effect if α > β

Heuristic Type

Social Heuristics

“Do what the majority do” heuristic

Darwin

Decision to marry

Single or married

Ecological Rationality of

do-what-the-majority do Heuristics

Similar environments

Stable environments

Noisy

environments

Heuristic Type

Take the Best &Tallying

Take The Best heuristic (TTB)

ONE-REASON DECISION MAKINGSEARCH BY VALIDITY

Validities

Cues School A School B

0.9 reputation + -

0.6 distance - +

0.8 students - +

ONE-REASON STOPPING RULE

Validities

Cues School A School B

0.9 reputation + -

0.6 distance - +

0.8 students - +

Random

search

Stop after

searching m cues

Tallying rull

Tallying heuristic

Ecological Rationality of Take The Best and Tallying

Take The BestNoncompensatory

Tallying Compensatory

Hindsight Bias

Hindsight Bias

Which has more cholesterol , cake or pie?

Cues Original Feedback Recall

Saturated fat (80%) cake? Pie "cake" cake> pie

Calories (70%) cake> pie

Protein (60%)

Choice cake cake

Confidence 70% 80%

Stop search

Stop search

Which heuristic to use?

Using heuristic unconsciously

adapt heuristics to changing environment with feedback.

Evaluating creditworthy

How people adapt their heuristics to the structure of environment

Robustness

•the ability to make predictions about the future or new events

fitness

•the ability to fit the past or already known data

Simplicity can lead to higher predictive accuracy

THE SAME BUILDING BLOCKS CAN CONSTRUCT NEW HEURISTICS TO

DEAL WITH NEW TASKS

The building Blocks of Heuristics

Heuristics In HospitalST SEGMENT CHANGES

CCU

YES

CHIEF COMPLAINT OF CHEST PAIN?

NO

REGULAR NURSING

BED

NO

ANY OTHER FACTOR?

YES

CCUREGULAR NURSING

BED

YESNO

CONCLUSION

CONCLUSION Heuristics is a land of rationality

that is different from familiar one.

Heuristics models.

Different Heuristics in different environment.

Heuristics is not just these …