Sept. 2011, Cairns, Australia

Global Trendsin main

Avocado MarketsPresented by:Gabi NaamaniAgrexco Tel-Aviv, Israel

Proceedings VII World Avocado Congress 2011 (Actas VII Congreso Mundial del Aguacate 2011). Cairns, Australia. 5 – 9 September 2011

Global trends in the main Avocado Markets Gabi Naamani, Agrexco Tel-Aviv

First Avocado was presented in Europe around 50 years ago along with the development of

plantations and export from Israel. The new item had introduced to the European population finding

favorable attitude mainly in France. The market had been developed from its starting zero point to over

than 270,000 tons on last year.

At older times, at the beginning of the 20ty century, the Avocado made its first steps on the US market,

and total consumption on last year was close to 600,000 tons.

By looking back to times of the last decade of the 20ty century we may find that in both – Europe and

US markets – total consumption was almost the same. Along the past 15 years, the US market more

than tripled itself, whereas the consumption in Europe was more stable and had much lower growth.

Many reasons may explain this difference. The main and most significant one is on the Supply end.

In Europe there was a decade of 'no growth' with up and down syndrome. Demands could not be

acutely developed due to 'up and down supply' with no real sources for increase. Changes are

identified only after more supplying sources were found. From 2-3 traditional suppliers in the far past,

there are more than 10 supplying countries nowadays, mostly from South America.

By comparing the huge growth of the American Market with the uneven European Markets, we

may analyze the potential for future growth & developments in Europe.

Citrus - World Production & Trade (Tons, 1961 – 2009)*

*FAOSTAT

-

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

Production Export

Bananas - World Production & Trade (Tons, 1961 – 2009)*

*FAOSTAT

-

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

90,000,000

100,000,000

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

Production Export

Apples - World Production & Trade (Tons, 1961 – 2009)*

*FAOSTAT

-

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

Production Export

Mangoes - World Production & Trade (Tons, 1961 – 2009)*

*FAOSTAT

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

Production Export

Avocado - World Production & Trade (Tons, 1961 – 2009)*

*FAOSTAT

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

Production Export

Fruits - World Production & Trade (Tons, 1961 – 2009)*

*FAOSTAT

Production

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

-1,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,0008,000,0009,000,00010,000,00011,000,00012,000,00013,000,00014,000,00015,000,00016,000,00017,000,00018,000,000

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

90,000,000

100,000,000

110,000,000

120,000,000

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

1993

1997

2001

2005

2009

CitrusBananasApplesMangoesPearsPeachesAvocado

Export

Various Fruits - World Production & Export( 000,000’ Tons, 2008 )*

*FAOSTAT

125

93

70

3521 18 3.613.0 18.0

7.50.71.62.51.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Citrus Bananas Apples Mangoes Pears Peaches Avocado

Production Export

Avocado - Production & Consumption PointsProductionConsumption

Avocado, World production (average year)22

0,00

0

180,

000

100,

000

70,0

00

80,0

00

60,0

00

150,

000

130,

000

3,00

0

10,0

00

5,00

020,0

00

16,0

00

30,0

00

45,0

00

Chile

UsaPeru

Israe

l

S.Afri

caSpa

in

Austra

lia

Domini

cana

New Ze

aland

Kenya

Argen

tina

Maroco

Greec

e

Far E

ast

S.Ameri

ca

Yearly World Production2.3M Tons

(Mexico - 1.1M Tons)

ExportingCountries

ImportingCountries

Avocado 2008/9 - World Trade (1)

Trade between countries*

Total: +/- 680,000 Tons(90% Hass, 10% Greens)

* Re-export is not included

Avocado 2008/9 - World Trade (2)

32,00011,000

100,000

45,00032,000

40,000 40,000

380,000

Mexico Chile Peru Israel S.Africa Spain Kenya Others

Export by main countriesTotal: +/- 680,000 Tons

(90% Hass, 10% Greens)

Avocado 2008/9 - World Trade (3)

405,000

15,00020,00020,00025,000

195,000

Usa

Europe

Japan

Canad

a

C. Ameri

ca

Others

Import by main blocksTotal: +/- 680,000 Tons

USA & EuropePoints of Comparison

USA – Avocado Consumption (Tons)

254,000100,000

172,000140,000

276,000156,000

211,148179,389

200,809215,403

162,846138,409157,476166,184158,656

145,610

342,300405,000

296,000320,000

173,000225,000

139,266142,673105,88376,650

66,214

22,299

505,000468,000

460,000449,000

381,000350,414

322,062

55,539

596,300

179,833193,301

306,692292,053

229,060193,948

205,251

167,909

2009/102008/92007/82006/72005/62004/52003/42002/32001/22000/11999/01998/91997/81996/71995/61994/5

Local Import

Local = Production-Export

Avocado in Europe – Yearly volume (Tons)(1.10 – 30.9)

140,000179,000

120,000175,000

145,000170,000

145,000168,000

206,000200,000

250,000230,000

215,000274,000

1996/71997/81998/9

1999/02000/12001/22002/32003/42004/52005/6

2006/72007/82008/9

2009/10

USA & Europe along the years

(tons)

Find the differences ???

Population:USA - 300 MEEC - 500 M+ 300 M in East Europe)(

505,000468,000

460,000449,000

381,000350,414

322,062306,692

292,053229,060

193,948205,251

193,301179,833

167,909

596,3002009/10

2007/8

2005/6

2003/4

2001/2

1999/0

1997/8

1995/6

140,000179,000

120,000175,000

145,000170,000

145,000168,000

206,000200,000

250,000230,000

215,000274,000

1996/71997/81998/9

1999/02000/12001/22002/32003/42004/52005/6

2006/72007/82008/9

2009/10

Avocado in Europe

Potential Growth

Europe - yearly supply by producing countries (000’ Tons. 1.10 – 30.9)

4335

2446

3845

2726

5428

582732

43

3463

4060

4560

3563

4554

5655

5652

2519

1314

1113

2016

1520

1010

118

119

1011

1611

1615

1615

10912

12

2552

3243

3440

3530

4736

375039

48

1841

2716

52

1013

1728

3448

4454

140179

120175

145170

145168

206200

250

215230

274

1996/7

1997/8

1998/9

1999/0

2000/1

2001/2

2002/3

2003/4

2004/5

2005/6

2006/7

2007/8

2008/9

2009/10

Israel Spain Mexico Kenya S.Africa Chile Peru

Parameters for comparison – USA vs. Europe Europe USA

Population (+/-) 500 M 300 M (Plus 300 M in former USSR)

Formal Languages 30+ 1

Currencies Several One (US $)

Consumption (2009/10) 270,000 Tons 600,000 Tons

Consumption Per Capita 540 Grams 2000 Grams

Domestic Production 60,000 Tons 240,000 Tons (Spain mainly) (California mainly)

Import Volume 210,000 Tons 360,000 Tons

Main Import's sources Israel, S.Africa, Chile, Mexico, Chile Peru, Mexico, Kenya, Spain (to others in Europe)

Yearly Growth 'Up and down' syndrome permanently up

Common Varieties 65% Hass 95% Hass

Varieties' preferences Hass in some countries Hass Greens in most countries

Population(Target)Potential

+/- 500 Millionsin the EEC and Surrounding

+Around 300 Millions

in former USSR & Yugoslavia

2009/10, )טון(הגעות אבוקדו לאירופה Avocado arrivals to Europe (Tons)

2009/10 אוג'Aug

ספט'Sep

אוק'Oct

נוב'Nov

דצמ'Dec

ינוארJan

פבר'Feb

מרץMar

אפרילApr

מאיMay

יוניJun

יוליJul

אוג'Aug

ספט'Sep

אוק'Oct

ישראלIsraelמכסיקו

Mexicoספרד

Spainד.אפריקהS.Africaקנייה

Kenyaפרו

Peruצ'ילהChileאחרים

Othersסה"כTotal

52,200

43,1008,30051,500

48,000

4,900

274,000

11,80054,200

Europe - Estimated Consumption by Countries (Tons + %)

Scand22,000

Spain30,000

Germany 20,000 7%

Blx17,000

France115,000

42%

U.K.48,00017%

Others17,000

Swiss6,000

2009/10274,000 T

in Total

Consumption per Capita - main markets, in Grams

2009/10 - Consumption per Capita (Grams)

243

800637

885 800690

63 50

1889

France

Germany

U.K. Blx

Scand

Swiss

Spain

Italy

Russia

For Comparison:

Mexico – 9.0 Kg

Israel – 5.0 Kg

Chile – 4.5 Kg

USA – 2.0 Kg

)- Sales of East European branch (tons

123 265 446751

1,465977 967

128 172257

323

676459

700

304 362Russia2,395

296

512

134 200380

588

1,122 1,211

2,165

1,281 1,329

2,907

2000/1

2001/2

2002/3

2003/4

2004/5

2005/6

2006/7

2007/8

2008/9

2009/1

0

Rest EE

Russia

Some conclusions (From “California Avocado Society 2007 year book”)

What can be learnt from this short and partial survey? What will the future be?

Optimistic views claim that there is still shortage of avocado supply in our world.

The “limiting factor” is the “supply” while the “demand” or “consumption” is far

from being saturated.

Where there has been sufficient and increased supply, the consumption has followed

and increased. Examples are abundant – Mexico, the United States, Japan and

England, and in domestic markets throughout the producing countries. That was the

situation in France in the 70's and 80's years. That's happening today in the developing

markets in Eastern Europe where new consumers have learned to eat avocados.

However, supply to Europe as a whole has been stagnant for the last two decades and

the real permanent “growth in consumption” is delayed for better future times. In

historical terms, the avocado is still a “new baby” in most of the world, who is just

taking its first commercial steps. As such, it still has unlimited horizons for growth

and development. (Written by Gabi Naamani)

Avocado in Europe – Summary & Conclusions:• Avocado is still a “new baby” in most of the world• Avocado supply is relatively low compared to “old

products”• Consumption could not be developed in ‘lack of supply’• Avocado is considered as ‘Good & Healthy’ product,

existing all year around and has a tradition• Imperative requirement - pedantic ‘qualities & standards’

with certainty regarding ‘inner quality’• Matching varieties/sizes to different niches/consumers

Key factor - Prepared or “Ready-to-Eat” avocado• Population is more experienced and ready for innovation• Advanced co-operation between suppliers

As far as supply will grow up steadily…

The sky is the limit

Thanks for your

attention