Presentation -GAMFC (2014)
-
Upload
william-agyakwah -
Category
Documents
-
view
31 -
download
0
Transcript of Presentation -GAMFC (2014)
1
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COCOA YIELD PRODUCTION
USING FORECAST MODELS
BY:
WILLIAM AGYAKWAH
SUPERVISOR:
PASCALINE CHEMAIYO
JULY, 2014
2
OUTLINE
INTRODUCTION
OBJECTIVE
JUSTIFICATION
LITERATURE REVIEW
METHODOLOGY
STUDY AREAS
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
REFERENCES
3
INTRODUCTION What is climate change?
Cocoa as a tropical crop is specific in its climatic and soil requirement
Climatic parameters related to cocoa yield production
Other factors which affect cocoa yield
Cocoa production serves as source of livelihood for most inhabitants of Ghana
4
The main objective of this study is to determine the impacts of climate change on cocoa yield production using forecast models.
SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES To find associations among rainfall, temperature and sunshine
with cocoa production
Investigate the impacts of climate change on cocoa yields
Assess the socio-economic implications of climate change on cocoa yields
How to mitigate or adapt to impacts of climate change on cocoa yields
OBJECTIVE
5
JUSTIFICATION The world production of cocoa beans has experienced
irregular pattern due to heavy dependence on weather in production
What are the effects of climate change on cocoa production?
What coping strategies can be adopted by cocoa farmers in sustaining crop failure and cocoa yield loses?
6
LITERATURE REVIEW
Cocoa is highly vulnerable to drought and the pattern of cropping of cocoa is related to rainfall distribution.
(Anim-Kwapong, G. J. and Frimpong, E. B. (2005).
Cocoa as a tropical crop can only be profitably grown under temperatures varying between 30-32oC mean maximum and 18-21oC mean minimum and absolute minimum of 10oC (Wood and Lass 1985).
7
LITERATURE REVIEW CONT. Black pod disease is closely related to weather and
climate. It is more prevalent in damp situations and is most destructive in years when the short dry period from July to August is very wet (Anim-Kwapong and Frimpong 2003).
Low light intensities suppress flower production; with light levels less than 1800 hours per year, have considerable depressing effect on production (Asomaning et al 1971)
8
METHODOLOGY General Circulation Models (GCM) in conjunction with
Simple Climate Models (SCM) method
Multiple Regression Analysis
Questionnaire Approach Method (Tobit Model for analysis)
These models were to find possible relationship among climate parameters and cocoa production
Models were used to predict the impact of climate change on cocoa yield production
9
STUDY AREASForest Boundaries of Ghana Ondo State, Nigeria
WE=Wet Evergreen; UE=Upland Evergreen; ME=Moist Evergreen;
MS=Moist Semi-deciduous (NW=Northwest subtype; SE=Southeast subtype) DS=Dry Semi-deciduous
(FZ=Fire Zone subtype; IZ=Inner Zone subtype) SM=Southern Marginal.
1=Wassa Akropong, 2=Hwidiem, 3=Tepa, 4=Tafo, 5=Assin Breku and 6=Jasikan.
(Hall and Swaine, 1981)
10
Maximum rainfall was realised in 2002 and gave higher production in 2003. This means that, high rainfall is a contributing factor to high production in
cocoa. The coefficient of correlation is 0.003; it indicates that, rainfall has no much
impact on cocoa production because the value is closer to zero.
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
2000
2001
2002
2003
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000A Graph of Cocoa Production Against Rainfall
Total Annual Rainfall (mm)
Cocoa Pro-duction (Mt)
Years
Am
ou
nt
of
Pro
du
cti
on
an
d R
ain
fall
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
11
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION CONT.Baseline and Projected Rainfall Values for the Semi Deciduous Forest Zone of Ghana
(1971-2000)
12
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION CONT.Baseline and Projected Rainfall Values for the Evergreen Rainforest Zone of Ghana
(1971-2000)
13
CONCLUSION The Climate Change (temperature and rainfall) scenarios for the semi-
deciduous forest will decline by -2.8%, -10.9% and -18.6% in year 2020, 2050 and 2080 respectively
In the evergreen rainforest zone, mean annual rainfall will also decline by -3.1%, -12.1% and -20.2% in year 2020, 2050 and 2080 respectively
Mean annual temperature changes will rise by 0.8oc, 2.5oc and 5.4oc in year 2020, 2050 and 2080 respectively in the semi deciduous forest
Mean annual temperature changes will rise by 0.6oc , 2.0oc and 3.9oc in year 2020, 2050 and 2080 respectively in the evergreen rainforest zone
60% of the variation in dry Cocoa beans produced could be explained by the combination of the preceding year’s total annual rainfall, total rainfall in the two driest months and total sunshine duration. (Y= 2447 - 1.41 (X1) + 32.4 (X2) + 0.66(X3) )
14
RECOMMENDATIONS Drought management policy through information systems
Policies to promote the establishment of irrigation systems in farms through the provision of infrastructure, education and training.
Policies to encourage tree planting and maintenance of shade on cocoa.
Farmers should be trained on techniques of spraying against diseases and how to process the produce for sale.
Researching into making new breeds of cocoa that can adapt to climate change for high productivity
15
REFERENCES Anim-Kwapong, G. J. and Frimpong, E. B. (2005). Vulnerability of Agriculture
to Climate Change – impact of climate on Cocoa production. Cocoa Research Institute, New Tafo Akim, Ghana.
A.S. Oyekale , M.B. Bolaji and O.W. Olowa ,(2009). The Effects of Climate Change on Cocoa Production and Vulnerability Assessment in Nigeria. Agricultural Journal, 4: 77-85.
Brew, K. M. (1991). Relationship between yield, rainfall and total sunshine hours. Rep. Cocoa Res. Inst. Ghana. 1988/89, p30-32. Charter, C. F. (1947). Cocoa soils: good and bad (Mimeo). West Africa Cocoa Research Institute, Tafo, Ghana.
Skidmore, C. L. (1929). Indications of existing correlation between rainfall and the number of pods harvested at Aburi and Asuansi. Department of Agriculture Gold Coast Bulletin, 1928, p.114-120.
16
THANK YOU
MAY GOD BLESS YOU