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IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COCOA YIELD PRODUCTION

USING FORECAST MODELS

BY:

WILLIAM AGYAKWAH

SUPERVISOR:

PASCALINE CHEMAIYO

JULY, 2014

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OUTLINE

INTRODUCTION

OBJECTIVE

JUSTIFICATION

LITERATURE REVIEW

METHODOLOGY

STUDY AREAS

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

REFERENCES

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INTRODUCTION What is climate change?

Cocoa as a tropical crop is specific in its climatic and soil requirement

Climatic parameters related to cocoa yield production

Other factors which affect cocoa yield

Cocoa production serves as source of livelihood for most inhabitants of Ghana

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The main objective of this study is to determine the impacts of climate change on cocoa yield production using forecast models.

SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES To find associations among rainfall, temperature and sunshine

with cocoa production

Investigate the impacts of climate change on cocoa yields

Assess the socio-economic implications of climate change on cocoa yields

How to mitigate or adapt to impacts of climate change on cocoa yields

OBJECTIVE

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JUSTIFICATION The world production of cocoa beans has experienced

irregular pattern due to heavy dependence on weather in production

What are the effects of climate change on cocoa production?

What coping strategies can be adopted by cocoa farmers in sustaining crop failure and cocoa yield loses?

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LITERATURE REVIEW

Cocoa is highly vulnerable to drought and the pattern of cropping of cocoa is related to rainfall distribution.

(Anim-Kwapong, G. J. and Frimpong, E. B. (2005).

Cocoa as a tropical crop can only be profitably grown under temperatures varying between 30-32oC mean maximum and 18-21oC mean minimum and absolute minimum of 10oC (Wood and Lass 1985).

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LITERATURE REVIEW CONT. Black pod disease is closely related to weather and

climate. It is more prevalent in damp situations and is most destructive in years when the short dry period from July to August is very wet (Anim-Kwapong and Frimpong 2003).

Low light intensities suppress flower production; with light levels less than 1800 hours per year, have considerable depressing effect on production (Asomaning et al 1971)

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METHODOLOGY General Circulation Models (GCM) in conjunction with

Simple Climate Models (SCM) method

Multiple Regression Analysis

Questionnaire Approach Method (Tobit Model for analysis)

These models were to find possible relationship among climate parameters and cocoa production

Models were used to predict the impact of climate change on cocoa yield production

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STUDY AREASForest Boundaries of Ghana Ondo State, Nigeria

WE=Wet Evergreen; UE=Upland Evergreen; ME=Moist Evergreen;

MS=Moist Semi-deciduous (NW=Northwest subtype; SE=Southeast subtype) DS=Dry Semi-deciduous

(FZ=Fire Zone subtype; IZ=Inner Zone subtype) SM=Southern Marginal.

1=Wassa Akropong, 2=Hwidiem, 3=Tepa, 4=Tafo, 5=Assin Breku and 6=Jasikan.

(Hall and Swaine, 1981)

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Maximum rainfall was realised in 2002 and gave higher production in 2003. This means that, high rainfall is a contributing factor to high production in

cocoa. The coefficient of correlation is 0.003; it indicates that, rainfall has no much

impact on cocoa production because the value is closer to zero.

1971

1972

1973

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1991

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2003

0

1000

2000

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7000A Graph of Cocoa Production Against Rainfall

Total Annual Rainfall (mm)

Cocoa Pro-duction (Mt)

Years

Am

ou

nt

of

Pro

du

cti

on

an

d R

ain

fall

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

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RESULTS AND DISCUSSION CONT.Baseline and Projected Rainfall Values for the Semi Deciduous Forest Zone of Ghana

(1971-2000)

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RESULTS AND DISCUSSION CONT.Baseline and Projected Rainfall Values for the Evergreen Rainforest Zone of Ghana

(1971-2000)

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CONCLUSION The Climate Change (temperature and rainfall) scenarios for the semi-

deciduous forest will decline by -2.8%, -10.9% and -18.6% in year 2020, 2050 and 2080 respectively

In the evergreen rainforest zone, mean annual rainfall will also decline by -3.1%, -12.1% and -20.2% in year 2020, 2050 and 2080 respectively

Mean annual temperature changes will rise by 0.8oc, 2.5oc and 5.4oc in year 2020, 2050 and 2080 respectively in the semi deciduous forest

Mean annual temperature changes will rise by 0.6oc , 2.0oc and 3.9oc in year 2020, 2050 and 2080 respectively in the evergreen rainforest zone

60% of the variation in dry Cocoa beans produced could be explained by the combination of the preceding year’s total annual rainfall, total rainfall in the two driest months and total sunshine duration. (Y= 2447 - 1.41 (X1) + 32.4 (X2) + 0.66(X3) )

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RECOMMENDATIONS Drought management policy through information systems

Policies to promote the establishment of irrigation systems in farms through the provision of infrastructure, education and training.

Policies to encourage tree planting and maintenance of shade on cocoa.

Farmers should be trained on techniques of spraying against diseases and how to process the produce for sale.

Researching into making new breeds of cocoa that can adapt to climate change for high productivity

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REFERENCES Anim-Kwapong, G. J. and Frimpong, E. B. (2005). Vulnerability of Agriculture

to Climate Change – impact of climate on Cocoa production. Cocoa Research Institute, New Tafo Akim, Ghana.

A.S. Oyekale , M.B. Bolaji and O.W. Olowa ,(2009). The Effects of Climate Change on Cocoa Production and Vulnerability Assessment in Nigeria. Agricultural Journal, 4: 77-85.

Brew, K. M. (1991). Relationship between yield, rainfall and total sunshine hours. Rep. Cocoa Res. Inst. Ghana. 1988/89, p30-32. Charter, C. F. (1947). Cocoa soils: good and bad (Mimeo). West Africa Cocoa Research Institute, Tafo, Ghana.

Skidmore, C. L. (1929). Indications of existing correlation between rainfall and the number of pods harvested at Aburi and Asuansi. Department of Agriculture Gold Coast Bulletin, 1928, p.114-120.

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