Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation.
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Transcript of Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation.
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Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change
Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation
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•Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is the primary greenhouse gas.
•Methane, Nitrogen oxide, and CFC’s are also contributors.
•These gasses trap heat from the sun.
•They have a delicate balance in the atmosphere – too few and we freeze, but too many and we get too hot.
Greenhouse Gasses
Image / quotes to go in this side bar location
1-800-505-8998 • www.cbt.org
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Climate Variability and Climate Change
Normals
Climate Change
Climate Oscillations
Climate VariabilityNormals
Short term: (years to decadal) rises and falls about the trend line (ENSO)
Long Term Trends or major shifts in climate: (centuries)
Multi-decadal oscillations in regional climate: (e.g. PDO, NAO)
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Warming doesn’t happen equally everywhere
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Causes of Rising Natural Disasters
Global Trends in Frequency of Major Natural Disasters
Biological
Geological
Hydrometeorological
Adaptation D
eficit
Number of Disasters in EMDAT, 1900 – 2005
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Temperature – Past and Future
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http://www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/research/glacier_model.htm
Is 1 C warming important? Scenario of projected shifts in ecosystems in Glacier National Park
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Precipitation – Past and Future
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Warming is predicted through 21st century
Increase average temp 2-3 degrees C by 2050s
Increase in winter precipitation 1-13%
Decrease in summer precipitation -4 to -10%
Global Climate Models - Scenarios for Columbia Basin
Future climate will be different than the past
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What is climate change adaptation?
• Prepare for and respond to the potential impacts of climate change
– The future will be different than the past
– Ensure a resilient community
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Changes to temperature & precipitation
can impact communities in a variety of ways:
Impacts: Anticipate Changes
What are your risks?
InfrastructureLocal EconomyHealth and SafetyOthers
What are your opportunities?
AgricultureRecreationClimate refugeesOthers
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Pine Beetle Recreation
FiresRecreation Closure
What changes are you observing that may be related to Climate Change?
Identifying Current Impacts
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Planning 2000 2020 2040 20802100
Lifespan
Street layout
Buildings
Infrastructure
Unavoidable “surprises”
Global peak oil
Additional 0.8 degrees warming
Global -50% emissions
Plan for a different future
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Concern:• Increasing rain events during
winter as temperatures warm
Some Considerations:
• No existing policy to encourage reduction of runoff on properties
• Will climate change make it better or worse?
• Can we easily undertake adaptive actions?
Process: Assess Vulnerability
Example: Stormwater management in Elkford
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Process: Risk Assessment
Risk = Vulnerability x Probability of an impact
Process Step Summary Description
Purpose
Vulnerability assessment
Identifying the “weak” spots
Figure out which risks can be adapted to more easily, and which will require substantial resources or
other changes.
Risk assessment What to pay attention to first
Figure out the biggest risks requiring action
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Wildfire• Create defensible space adjacent to existing structures – reduce
forest• Require new developments to have defensible space – example: no
construction within 300 metres of the dense forest, and the forest adjacent to new development thinned
Process: Develop Adaptation Strategies
Flooding• Identify no-development zones where runoff water may be
temporarily stored during a flood event
• Build flood protection infrastructure / dyke systems
• Require developments to use pervious materials in driveways and parking lots, and build roads without curbs and gutters
Two Examples of Strategies from Elkford
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Additional Adaptation Ideas
Tourism & Recreation• Snow security strategies for ski resorts• Increase mountain biking opportunities
Food Security• Backyard gardens and markets• Planting trees on municipal land that provide fruit• Community greenhouses
Health• Community cooling centers• Planting shade trees
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Role of Local Governments:• responsible for local community development and hazard mitigation;• can influence the degree to which a community will be prepared for
climate change impacts.
Climate Change is a global trend…… and impacts will be felt most locally
1-800-505-8998 • www.cbt.org
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Anticipate changes. Accept that the future climate will be substantially different than the past.
Use scenario based planning to evaluate options (rather than the historic record).
Expect surprises and plan for flexibility and robustness in the face of uncertain changes rather than counting on one approach.
Plan for the long haul.
Key things to remember
1-800-505-8998 • www.cbt.org
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