Presentación del VNI Argentina - Febrero 2016
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Transcript of Presentación del VNI Argentina - Febrero 2016
February 2016
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Update Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Gonzalo Valverde – Director Operations Sales
Argentina, Uruguay & Paraguay
2 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Mobile Speed
Data
Global Forecast
Data
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Expanding the Scope of Cisco’s IP Thought Leadership Cisco® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers.
VNI Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
3 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Overview
4 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
2015 2020
4.8 Billion
5.5 Billion
More Mobile Users
More Mobile Connections
Faster Mobile Speeds
More Mobile Video
7.9 Billion
11.6 Billion
2.0 Mbps 6.5 Mbps
55% of Traffic
75% of Traffic
Mobile Momentum Metrics
5 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
By 2020, global mobile data traffic will reach an annual run rate of
367 exabytes per year, up from 44 exabytes in 2015
(8-fold growth).
367X More than all IP traffic generated in 2000
81 Trillion images (e.g., MMS or Instagram)
7 Trillion video clips (e.g., YouTube)
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020 5 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
6 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line Global Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 8-Fold from 2015─2020
Exabytes per Month
53% CAGR 2015–2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
21.7 EB
3.7 EB
14.9 EB 9.9 EB
6.2 EB
30.6 EB
7 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Regions MEA has the Highest Growth Rate (71%) from 2015–2020 APAC will Generate 45% of all Mobile Data Traffic by 2020
53% CAGR 2015–2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Latin America (LATAM) Middle East and Africa (MEA) Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Western Europe (WE) North America (NA) Asia Pacific (APAC)
Exabytes per Month 11%
45%
9%
14% 7%
14%
8 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
31% 39%
46% 46% 46% 47%
56% 56% 56% 56% 57% 57% 58% 59%
64% 67% 68%
79% 81%
86% 89%
111% 129%
Sweden Korea Spain
Canada Australia
Japan France Russia
Germany US
Italy UK
Mexico South Africa
Brazil New Zealand
Chile Argentina
Poland Saudi Arabia
India China
Indonesia
Cisco VNI Mobile Year in Review—
2015 Strong Growth
Worldwide
9 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Drivers
10 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Mobile Users From 65% (4.8B) in 2015 to 70% (5.5B) of Global Population by 2020 Global Mobile Users Growing 2X Faster than Global Population
North America 2015: 302 Million 2020: 322 Million
CAGR 1.3%
Latin America 2015: 477 Million 2020: 577 Million
CAGR 1.6%
Western Europe 2015: 368 Million 2020: 378 Million
CAGR 0.5%
Middle East & Africa 2015: 709 Million 2020: 879 Million
CAGR 4.4%
Central & Eastern Europe 2015: 352 Million 2020: 360 Million
CAGR 0.5%
Asia Pacific 2015: 2,597 Million 2020: 3008 Million
CAGR 3.0%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
11 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Mobile Device and Connections From 7.9 Billion in 2015 to 11.6 Billion by 2020 at 8% CAGR
North America 2015: 486 Million
2020: 1,036 Million CAGR 16.4%
Latin America 2015: 770 Million
2020: 1,018 Million CAGR 5.7%
Western Europe 2015: 627 Million
2020: 1,129 Million CAGR 12.5%
Middle East & Africa 2015: 1,295 Million 2020: 1,845 Million
CAGR 7.3%
Central & Eastern Europe 2015: 642 Million 2020: 910 Million
CAGR 7.2%
Asia Pacific 2015: 4,031 Million 2020: 5,707 Million
CAGR 7.2%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
12 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Mobile Speed Growth Average Mobile Speed Will More Than Triple from 2.0 Mbps (2015) to 6.5 Mbps (2020)
North America
2.6-fold Growth 5.9 to 15.3 Mbps
Latin America
3.3-fold Growth 1.5 to 4.9 Mbps
Western Europe
3.5-fold Growth 4.1 to 14.1 Mbps
Middle East & Africa
6.3-fold Growth 0.8 to 4.8 Mbps
Central & Eastern Europe
4.7-fold Growth 2.3 to 10.6 Mbps
Asia Pacific
3.6-fold Growth 2.4 to 8.6 Mbps
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
13 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Mobile Video Traffic By 2020, Video Will Drive 75% of Mobile Traffic, Up from 55% in 2015
North America
77% of traffic by 2020 49% CAGR
Latin America
75% of traffic by 2020 60% CAGR
Western Europe
76% of traffic by 2020 54% CAGR
Middle East & Africa
72% of traffic by 2020 87% CAGR
Central & Eastern Europe
75% of traffic by 2020 62% CAGR
Asia Pacific
75% of traffic by 2020 64% CAGR
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
14 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Ten-Year Mobile VNI Retrospective View
15 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Mobile Data Traffic, 2000–2015
Trends Menu
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
“Call Me” User Growth Era
“There’s an app for that” Smartphone Era
“Watch this” Mobile Video Era
“Where’s Wi-Fi?” Data Cap Era
2G 3G 4G
16 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Historical View of Mobile Users
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mobile Users
in Billions
2000 Mobile Users: 0.6 B % of WW Population: 9%
2003 Mobile Users: >1 B % of WW Population: 17%
2005 Mobile Users: 1.7 B % of WW Population: 25%
2003 Mobile Users: 3.5 B % of WW Population: >50%
2015 Mobile Users:
4.8 B % of WW
Population: 65%
17 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Historical View of Devices
Mobile Devices and Connections
in Billions
Primarily
2000
Introduced
2003
>
2004 2007 2008
• One device/ capita
• 1.5 devices/ mobile user
2010 2013 2015
18 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Historical View of Mobile Speeds
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Average Mobile Speed (Kbps)
Mobility for the Masses GSM, GPRS, CDMAOne
Basic Mobile Broadband EV-DO, CDMA,
HSPA
Faster Mobile Broadband
LTE, LTE Advanced
First Commercial 3G Network
LTE First Public Release
19 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Historical View of Video
2G 3G 4G
Introduction of 3G enabling video
YouTube introduced for mobile
devices
iTunes launches
video content
Netflix transforms
video model
360 Video offers new experience
Live video streams deliver current
events
20 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Top Trends
21 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2015–2020 Top Mobile Networking Trends
1 Adapting to Smarter Mobile Devices
2 Defining Cell Network Advances ─ 2G, 3G, 4G (5G Perspectives)
3 Measuring Mobile IoT Adoption—M2M and Emerging Wearables
4 Tracking Wi-Fi Growth
5 Profiling Mobile Applications Use and Bandwidth Consumption Patterns
6 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements
7 Reviewing Tiered Pricing—Unlimited Data and Shared Plans
8 Mobile Milestones and Innovations Through The Years
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
22 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Trend 1 Adapting to Smarter Mobile Devices
• Total devices and connections growth
• Traffic by device category • Smarter devices growth • Smart devices traffic • IPv6 Analysis
23 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2020, Smartphones / Phablets Attain Largest Share Reaching Nearly 50%
8% CAGR 2015–2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Billions of Devices
Back to Trends Menu
* Figures (n) refer to 2015, 2020 device share
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Smartphones (32%,40%) Phablets (6%,8%) M2M (8%,26%) Nonsmartphones (50%,21%) Tablets (2%,3%) PCs (2%,2%) Other Portable Devices (0.2%,0.1%)
24 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Mobile Traffic Growth by Device Type Globally, Smartphones / Phablets Will Continue to Dominate Mobile Traffic, but M2M Will Gain Share by 2020
53% CAGR 2015–2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
* Figures (n) refer to 2015, 2020 traffic share
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Smartphones (inc. Phablets) (76%,81%) M2M (3%,7%) Nonsmartphones (2%,1%) Tablets (9%,8%) PCs (9%,3%) Other Portable Devices (0.03%,0.00%) Exabytes
per Month
25 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Smart Devices and Connections Share Percent of Total Mobile Devices and Connections
2015 2020 Global
BY REGION North America Western Europe
Asia-Pacific Central & Eastern Europe
Middle East & Africa
36%
74% 59%
35% 34%
43%
12%
72%
95% 86%
72% 70%
84%
52% Latin America
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu *Excludes LPWA
Trend 1 Adapting to Smarter Mobile Devices
• Total devices and connections growth
• Traffic by device category • Smarter devices growth • Smart devices traffic • Ipv6 analysis
Globally, in 2015, a smart device generated 14 times more traffic
than a nonsmart device.
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020 28 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
* Smart devices are those having advanced multimedia/computing capabilities with a minimum of 3G connectivity
27 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Impact of Smart Devices and Connections on Mobile Traffic By 2020, Smart Devices Will Have 98% Share of Traffic
Exabytes per Month
53% CAGR 2015–2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Nonsmart Traffic Smart Traffic
98%
97% 95%
93% 91% 89%
11% 9%
7%
5%
3%
2%
28 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Smart Devices and Connections Traffic Share Percent of Total Mobile Devices and Connections Traffic
2015 2020 Global
BY REGION North America Western Europe
Asia-Pacific
Central & Eastern Europe
Middle East & Africa
89%
99% 95%
90% 87%
90%
64%
98%
100% 99%
99% 98%
100%
95%
Latin America
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
29 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Trend 2 Defining Cell Network Advances—2G, 3G, 4G (5G Perspectives) • Total Connections by
Network Type • Network Connectivity for M2M • Traffic by Network
Connectivity • 5G Perspectives
30 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Connections by Network Type By 2017, 3G Surpasses 2G Connections By 2020, 4G Connectivity Surpasses All Other Connection Types
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2G 3G 4G LPWA
Billions of Devices or
Connections
40.5% 38.7%
13.5% 7.4%
52%
34%
14%
0.3%
*Includes M2M
31 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Connections by Network Type Regional Share by 2020
Global
BY REGION North America Western Europe
Asia-Pacific
Central & Eastern Europe
Middle East & Africa
2G 13%
3%
9%
15%
14%
8%
22%
Latin America
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
3G 39%
14%
21%
52%
37%
42%
60%
4G 40%
59%
53%
32%
43%
42%
17%
LPWA 7%
24%
16%
1%
6%
8%
1%
Includes M2M
32 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global M2M Connections by Network Type By 2020, 4G and LPWA Lead M2M Connections
Back to Trends Menu
Billions of Devices or
Connections
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2G 3G 4G LPWA 32%
12%
28% 26%
42% 40% 10% 4%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
33 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G Globally, 4G Already Carries Largest Share of Traffic – 47% By 2020, 4G Will Support 72% of Mobile Traffic
Back to Trends Menu
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2G 3G 4G
72%
27% <1%
Exabytes per Month
47% 10%
43%
Globally, in 2015, a 4G connection generated 1.6 GB/mo, nearly 6X higher than the 288 MB/mo for non-4G connections.
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020 28 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Back to Trends Menu
35 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
5G Perspectives The Perspectives and The Path to Deployment
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Barriers Benefits
• Super-efficient, cost optimized • Dynamic resource allocation • High bandwidth and ultra-low
latency • IoT Capable • Power efficient
• Monetization potential Recouping 4G investments
• Device availability • Regulatory issues
Spectrum allocation • Use case / test data
development
Back to Trends Menu
36 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Generations of Mobile Technology— A Snapshot
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
2G
1980–99
14–64 Kbps
Digital voice, SMS, MMS
1G
1970–84
2 Kbps
Analog voice
Generation
Deployment
Bandwidth
Service
3G
1990–2002
2 Mbps
Integrated high quality audio, video
and data
4G
2000–10
200 Mbps
Dynamic information
access, variable devices
5G
2020+
1 Gbps+
Dynamic information
access with AI capabilities–IoT,
Wearable devices
37 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Trend 3 Measuring Mobile IoT Adoption—M2M and Emerging Wearables • M2M Connections growth • M2M by vertical • M2M Device usage—
traffic examples • Wearables analysis
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Global M2M Connection Growth Global M2M Connections will Grow 5-Fold from 2015-2020; By 2020, 4G Will Have the Largest Global M2M Connections Share
38% CAGR 2015–2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Billions of M2M
Connections
Back to Trends Menu
* In 2015, 4G accounts for 10% and LPWA accounts for 4% of global mobile M2M connections.
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2G 3G 4G LPWA
40%
10%
3.1 B
2.4 B
1.8 B
1.3 B 0.9 B
0.6 B 46%
26%
28%
12%
34%
By 2020, M2M modules will be 26% of total global mobile devices and connections and will account for 7% (2.1 EBs/month) of mobile data traffic.
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020 5 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Back to Trends Menu
40 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Mobile M2M Connections By Vertical By 2020, Connected Home Largest, Connected Health Fastest Growth
38% CAGR 2015–2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Millions of M2M
Connections
Back to Trends Menu
-
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Other* (58.1% CAGR) Energy (44.1% CAGR) Manufacturing & Supply Chain (43.2% CAGR) Retail (15.4% CAGR) Connected Cities (42.3% CAGR) Connected Health (52% CAGR) Connected Car (32% CAGR) Utilities (33.8% CAGR) Connected Work (Ent Mgmnt) (46.6% CAGR) Connected Home (41% CAGR)
*Other includes Agriculture, Construction & Emergency Services
41 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Connected Wearable Devices Global Connected Wearables will Grow 6-Fold from 2015-2020; By 2020, 7 Percent will Have Embedded Cellular Connectivity
44% CAGR 2015–2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Millions of Connected Wearables
Back to Trends Menu
0,0% 1,0% 2,0% 3,0% 4,0% 5,0% 6,0% 7,0% 8,0%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
97 M
489 M 3.3%
601 M
6.9%
% with Embedded
Cellular Connectivity
261 M
167 M
373 M
42 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Regional Connected Wearable Devices Asia Pacific Will Have the Largest Share by 2020
44% CAGR 2015–2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Millions of M2M
Connections
Back to Trends Menu
* Figures (n) refer to 2015, 2020 regional wearable devices share
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Western Europe (17%,21%) North America (40%,30%) Middle East & Africa (4%,4%) Latin America (2%,4%) Central & Eastern Europe (5%,8%) Asia Pacific (31%,32%)
489 M
97 M
601 M
167 M
261 M
373 M
43 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Connected Wearable Devices Traffic Global Connected Wearables Traffic will Grow 23-Fold from 2015-2020
87% CAGR 2015–2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Monthly Traffic (PB)
Back to Trends Menu
% Embedded
Cellular Traffic
15 34 68
125
209
335
2,3%
6,0%
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
6,0%
7,0%
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
44 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Regional Connected Wearable Devices Traffic Asia Pacific will Maintain the Largest Share, Followed by North America
87% CAGR 2015–2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
* Figures (n) refer to 2015, 2020 regional wearable devices traffic share
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Western Europe (12%,19%) North America (38%,30%) Middle East & Africa (2%,3%) Latin America (1%,3%) Central & Eastern Europe (5%,11%) Asia Pacific (42%,34%)
Monthly Traffic (PB)
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Trend 4 Tracking Wi-Fi Growth • Total mobile vs. Wi-Fi vs.
fixed traffic growth • Mobile offload • Growth of Wi-Fi hotspots • Day in connected life/
day-parting • VoWiFi vs. other types of
mobile voice
46 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology Starting in 2017, Fixed/Wi-Fi Traffic Surpasses Fixed/Wired Traffic
23% CAGR 2015–2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
0 20 40 60 80
100 120 140 160 180
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mobile Data (59% CAGR)
Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (67% CAGR)
Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi-Only Devices (22% CAGR)
Fixed/Wired (11% CAGR)
55%
38% 3%
4% 37%
34%
13% 16%
53% is Wi-Fi
29% from Mobile Devices
Exabytes per Month
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Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload* 55% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2020 51% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2015
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
*Offload includes traffic from dual-mode devices (i.e., supports cell & Wi-Fi, excl. PCs) over Wi-Fi/small cell networks
Exabytes per Month
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices
45%
55%
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Global Public Wi-Fi Hotspots Asia Pacific leads with 164 Million (37%) hotspots by 2020
Source: Maravedis, Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
Millions of Hotspots
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Middle East and Africa * Central and Eastern Europe Latin America North America Western Europe Asia Pacific
37%
27%
21%
9%
64M
5%
109M
191M
278M
355M
433M
* Middle East and Africa represents 1% of global public Wi-Fi hotspots by 2020
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Day in a Connected Life Data Consumption by Location
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
* Reflects mature mobile markets and working adults usage
Home 52% Work 33% Hotspot 10% On the Go 5%
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Global VoWiFi Deployments/Availability North America West Europe Asia Pacific Middle East & Africa
Back to Trends Menu
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VoWiFi Minutes of Use Exceed VoLTE by 2016 VoWiFi Accounts for 53% of Mobile IP Voice by 2020 VoWiFI MoU Exceed VoIP by 2018
Source: ACG, Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Minutes of Use (Billions)
0 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000 7.000 8.000 9.000
10.000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
VoWiFi (15.7% , 52.9%) VoLTE (18.0% , 26.3%) VoIP (66.3% , 20.8%)
66%
53%
26% 21%
18% 16%
* Figures (n) refer to 2015, 2020 share of minutes of use
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VoWiFi Voice Traffic Exceeds VoIP by 2017 VoWiFi Is More Widely Available than VoLTE
Source: ACG, Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Petabytes per Year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
VoWiFi Traffic VoLTE Traffic VoIP
53 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Trend 5 Profiling Mobile Applications Use and Bandwidth Consumption Patterns • Mobile traffic by applications • Average vs. busy hour • Average per mobile user • Average per connection • Average for different device
54 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps Video Three-fourths of Mobile Data Traffic by 2020
53% CAGR 2015–2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
* Figures (n) refer to 2015 and 2020 mobile data traffic shares
Exabytes per Month
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mobile File Sharing (1%,2%)
Mobile Audio (8%,6%)
Mobile Web/Data/VoIP (36%,17%)
Mobile Video (55%,75%)
55 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Busy Hour Mobile Data Traffic Busy Hour Is 66% Higher than Average Hour in 2015, 88% in 2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
0 20 40 60 80
100 120 140 160 180 200
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Average-Hour Traffic Busy-Hour Traffic
Tbps
56 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Time Spent Per Device Type, 2015 Time on Smartphones Exceeds Time on PCs for all Regions Except NA
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Billions of Hours per
Day
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
APAC CEE LATAM MEA NA WE
PC Smartphone Tablet
Back to Trends Menu
57 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Average Mobile User (Cellular Traffic per Month)
2015 2020 GLOBAL Global MB per Month
BY REGION North America Western Europe
Latin America
Central & Eastern Europe
Middle East & Africa
746
1,792 1,134
588 568
1,529
409
5,216
8,887 6,528
4,237 3,785
11,835
4,790
Asia-Pacific
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
58 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Average Mobile Connection (Devices and M2M); Traffic per Month
2015 2020 Global MB per Month
BY REGION North America Western Europe
Asia-Pacific
Central & Eastern Europe
Middle East & Africa
469
1,147 690
568 392
849
227
2,625
3,097 2,476
3,785 2,403
4,879
2,338
Latin America
GLOBAL
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
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Mobile Device Data Traffic 2015 Mobile Device Data Traffic Generation Comparisons
M2M Module
Wearable Device
Smartphone
Tablet
PC 118 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) =
113 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) =
41 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) =
7 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) =
7 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) =
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
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Average Cellular Traffic Per Mobile Device Type
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
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Note: In 2015, 4G smartphones generated 14GBs/month and 4G tablets generated 3.2GBs/month
2015 2020 MBs per Month MBs per Month
Wearable Device
Smartphone
Tablet
164 670
153 558
929 4,406
2,576 7,079
2,679 5,232
M2M Module
Wearable Device
Smartphone
Tablet
PC
Nonsmartphone 23 116
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Trend 6 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements • Mobile speeds • Wi-Fi Speeds • Mobile speed
by device • Mobile speed
by network
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Mobile Network Speeds Increase 3.2X by 2020 Average Cell Connection Speed (2.0 Mbps in 2015) Will Grow at a 26% CAGR—Reaching 6.5 Mbps by 2020
2015 2020 Global Mbps
BY REGION North America Western Europe
Asia Pacific
Central & Eastern Europe
Middle East & Africa
2.0
5.9 4.0
1.5 2.4
2.3
0.8
6.5
15.3 14.1
4.9 8.6
10.6
4.8
Latin America
GLOBAL
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
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Global Average Wi-Fi Speeds Wi-Fi Exceeds Average Mobile (Cell) Speeds During 2015-2020
2015 2020 Global Mbps
BY REGION North America Western Europe
Asia Pacific
Central & Eastern Europe
Middle East & Africa
12.5
17.4 13.9
5.9 11.4
13.4
4.4
19.9
31.9 22.4
9.1 18.3
24.0
6.8
Latin America
GLOBAL
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
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Global Mobile Speeds by Device Type Tablet Speeds are 2.5x Higher than Average by 2020 Smartphone Speeds are 1.9x Higher than Average by 2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Mbps
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0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Tablets Smartphones
11.6 Mbps
7.5 Mbps
2.0 Mbps
16.2 Mbps
12.5 Mbps
6.5 Mbps
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0
5
10
15
20
25
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
4G 3G All Network Types 2G
Global Mobile Speeds by Network Type 4G Speeds will be 3.3X Higher than Average by 2020 Average Speeds will Surpass 3-3.5G Speeds by 2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Mbps
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15.3 Mbps
2.6 Mbps 2.0 Mbps
21.5 Mbps
116 Kbps
6.5 Mbps
85 Kbps 4.8 Mbps
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Trend 7 Reviewing Tiered Pricing—Unlimited Data & Shared Plans • Top mobile user profile • IOS vs. Android • Tiered vs. unlimited plans • Shared vs. regular plans
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Top 20% Users Consume 59% of Monthly Traffic
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
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* Study limited to few North American Tier 1 and Tier 2 operators
7% 28% 42%
59%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
100%
Top 1% Top 5% Top 10% Top 20%
Top-Tier Percentage
Usage (Nov 2015)
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Top 20% Users Consume Nearly 11 Gigabytes per Month *
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
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* Study limited to few North American Tier 1 and Tier 2 operators
27,9 21,4
15,7 11,0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Top 1% Top 5% Top 10% Top 20%
Top-Tier Percentage Usage GB/
month (Nov 2015)
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7 Percent of Users Consume 10 GB per Month 51 Percent Consume over 2 GB per Month *
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
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* Study limited to few North American Tier 1 and Tier 2 operators
Percentage of Users
(Nov 2015)
7% 21%
51%
94%
99%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
100%
Greater than 10 GB
Greater than 5 GB
Greater than 2 GB
Greater than 200 MB
Greater than 20 MB
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iOS Usage Surpasses Android
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
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* Study limited to few North American Tier 1 and Tier 2 operators
Average GB/month
(Nov 2015) 3,1
3,8
0
1
2
3
4
5
Android iOS
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“Sponsored” Data Examples
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• Three free hours of internet per day on the Opera Mini Browser
• Unlimited mobile calls with higher tier fixed line subscription
• 2GB Free data for XL and above plans
• Testing “toll free”
• Stream HBO, Netflix and ESPN
• Free Hulu to switch from Verizon
• Paid data carry forward service
• Cut your bill in half to switch from other carriers
• Unlimited plans for DirecTV and U-verse customers
• Connected car program
• Free trial Facebook and YouTube to first time customers
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Trend 8 Mobile Milestones and Innovations Through The Years
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Then and Now
92%
8%
1 : 1
Average number of contacts: 14
Calling, texting
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2000
1 : Many
Average contacts and connections: 250
2015
10%
90%
Calling, texting, tweeting, posting, watching, gaming, banking, navigating, shopping, reading
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Then and Now
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2000 2015
Storage: 4 MB Speed: 200 Kbps Data consumed in a month: 0.05 MB
Storage: 32 GB Speed: 8 Mbps Data consumed in a month: 1.2 GB
The average smartphone user in 2015 consumes more data in less than a minute than a mobile user in 2000 did in an entire month.
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The Pervasiveness of Mobile in 2015 Two out of three people over the age of five have mobile phones
People with mobile phones: 4.5 billion
People with bank accounts: 4.2 billion
People with running water: 3.0 billion
People with landlines: 2.7 billion
People with cars: 2.6 billion
62% of Global Population
57% of Global Population
41% of Global Population
37% of Global Population
36% of Global Population
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Mobile Perspective: The number of mobile users has quintupled since 2000. In 2015, more people have mobile phones than bank accounts, running water, cars, and landlines.
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Mobile Growth Continues Through 2020 By 2020, more people will have mobile phones than electricity at home
People with mobile phones: 5.4 billion
People with electricity: 5.3 billion
People with bank accounts: 4.5 billion
People with running water: 3.5 billion
People with cars: 2.8 billion
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Mobile Perspective: Already in 2015, mobile exceeds the electrical grid in a few regions and countries, including the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, India, and Indonesia. In Uganda, 3 million have electricity; 10 million have mobile phones. People with landlines: 2.2 billion
69% of Global Population
68% of Global Population
58% of Global Population
45% of Global Population
36% of Global Population
28% of Global Population
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Conclusion
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Cisco VNI Global Mobile Forecast, 2015–2020 Key Takeaways / Summary
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
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GLOBAL MOBILE USERS By 2020, there will be 5.5 Billion global mobile users, representing 70% of the global population.
GLOBAL MOBILE DEVICES/CONNECTIONS By 2020, there will be 1.5 mobile connections per capita globally.
GLOBAL MOBILE NETWORK SPEEDS By 2020, avg mobile connection speed will increase 3.2X (2.0 Mbps to 6.5 Mbps).
GLOBAL MOBILE VIDEO By 2020, over 75% of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video.
GLOBAL MOBILE TRAFFIC OFFLOAD By 2020, 55% of mobile data traffic will be offloaded to Wi-Fi/small cell networks.
GLOBAL MOBILE SMART DEVICES TRAFFIC By 2020, smart devices will generate 98% of global mobile data traffic.
GLOBAL MOBILE DATA TRAFFIC By 2020, mobile data traffic will reach 30.6 EB /per month (366 EB annually).
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Argentina
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Argentina 4G Traffic • 4G will account for 61.1% of total mobile data traffic by 2020, compared to
14.4% at the end of 2015. • 4G traffic will grow 29-fold from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual growth rate
of 96%. • 4G smartphone traffic will be 54% of total smartphone traffic by 2020,
compared to 10.2% at the end of 2015. • The average 4G smartphone will generate 3,224 MB of traffic per month by
2020, compared to 1,685 MB for non-4G smartphones. • The average 4G smartphone generated 1,456 MB of traffic per month in 2015,
compared to 577 MB for non-4G smartphones. • 4G tablet traffic will be 93% of total tablet traffic by 2020, compared to 43.5% at
the end of 2015.
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Argentina 4G Traffic • The average 4G tablet will generate 6,774 MB of traffic per month by 2020,
compared to 3,805 MB for non-4G tablets. • 4G connections will be 35.6% of total mobile connections by 2020, and 61.1%
of total mobile data traffic. • The average 4G connection generated 2,024 MB per month in 2015, 6.3X
higher than the average 321 MB per month for the average Non-4G Connection, and 3.0X higher than the average 673 MB per month for the average 3G Connection.
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AR Mobile Data Traffic
• Mobile data traffic will grow 7-fold from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual growth rate of 47%.
• Mobile data traffic will grow 2 times faster than fixed IP traffic from 2015 to 2020
• Mobile data traffic will account for 13% of Argentinian fixed and mobile data traffic by 2020, up from 5% in 2015
• 87% of mobile connections will be 'smart' connections by 2020, up from 42% in 2015
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AR Mobile Users
• There were 35.7 Million (82% of Argentina's population) mobile users in 2015, up 3% from 34.8 Million in 2014
• There will be 38.3 Million (84% of Argentina's population) mobile users by
2020, up from 35.7 Million in 2015, a CAGR of 1.4%.
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Argentina Mobile Data Traffic • In 2015, Argentina's mobile data traffic grew 1.8-fold, or 79%. • Mobile data traffic grew 3.3 times faster than Argentinian fixed IP traffic in 2015 • The average mobile-connected end-user device generated 382 megabytes of
mobile data traffic per month in 2015, up 76% from 217 megabytes • The average smartphone generated 615 megabytes of mobile data traffic per
month in 2015, up from 402 megabytes per month in 2014. • In 2015, Argentina's consumer mobile data traffic grew 1.8-fold, or 80%. • In 2015, Argentina's business mobile data traffic grew 1.7-fold, or 73%.
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Argentina Mobile Applications • In Argentina, mobile video traffic will grow 9.3-fold from 2015 to 2020, a
compound annual growth rate of 56%. • Video will be 75% of Argentina's mobile data traffic by 2020, compared to 55%
at the end of 2015. • Video reached half of Argentina's mobile data traffic by year-end 2014 or
earlier. • Streaming Audio will be 6% of Argentina's mobile data traffic by 2020,
compared to 8% at the end of 2015. • Filesharing will be 2% of Argentina's mobile data traffic by 2020, compared to
1% at the end of 2015. • Web and other data will be 17% of Argentina's mobile data traffic by 2020,
compared to 36% at the end of 2015.
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AR Number of Mobile-Connected Devices
• 1.9 Mobile connections per capita for this region/country by 2020, up from 1.5 mobile connections per capita in 2015.
• 2.0 million net new devices and connections were added to the mobile network in 2015.
• 6.7 million smartphones were added to the mobile network in 2015. • There were 66 million mobile-connected devices in 2015, approximately 1.5
per capita. • There will be 86 million mobile-connected devices by 2020, approximately 1.9
per capita. • The number of mobile-connected devices will grow at a compound annual
growth rate of 5% from 2015 to 2020.
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AR Number of Mobile-Connected Devices • The number of mobile-connected tablets grew 1.2-fold during 2015, reaching
0.7 million in number. • The number of mobile-connected tablets will grow 2.2-fold between 2015 and
2020, reaching 1.6 million in number. • The number of mobile-connected PCs grew % during 2015, to 1 million in
number • The number of mobile-connected PCs will grow 1.2-fold between 2015 and
2020, to 1 million in number • The number of smartphones grew 30% during 2015, reaching 29 million in
number. • The number of smartphones will grow 2.0-fold between 2015 and 2020,
reaching 58 million in number.
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Mobile Connection Speeds • Average mobile connection speed was 619 kbps in 2015. • Average mobile connection speed will grow 4.1-fold (32% CAGR) from 2015 to
2020, reaching 2,515 kbps by 2020
By Device • Average smartphone connection speed was 4,580 kbps in 2015 • Average smartphone connection speed will grow 1.7-fold from 2015 to 2020,
reaching 7,766 kbps by 2020 • Average tablet connection speed was 6,418 kbps in 2015 • Average tablet connection speed will grow 1.8-fold from 2015 to 2020, reaching
11,752 kbps by 2020.
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By Network Connection Type • In 2015 the average 4G speed was 10,730 kbps, the average 3G speed was
1,801 kbps, and the average 2G speed was 65 kbps. • By 2020 the average 4G speed will be 17,921 kbps, the average 3G speed will
be 3,785 kbps, and the average 2G speed will be 79 kbps • In 2015 the average Wi-Fi connection speed was 4,358 kbps, up 19% from
3,677 kbps in 2014 • In 2020 the average Wi-Fi connection speed will be 7,603 kbps, up 1.7-fold
(12% CAGR) from 2015 to 2020. • The average 3G speed will grow 2.1-fold (16% CAGR) from 2015 to 2020,
reaching 3,785 kbps by 2020. • The average 2G speed will grow 1.2-fold (4% CAGR) from 2015 to 2020,
reaching 79 kbps by 2020.
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Conclusion
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Cisco VNI Argentina Mobile Forecast, 2015–2020 Key Takeaways / Summary
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
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AR MOBILE USERS By 2020, there will be 38.3 Million mobile users, representing 84% of the AR population.
AR MOBILE DEVICES/CONNECTIONS By 2020, there will be 1.9 mobile connections per capita.
AR MOBILE NETWORK SPEEDS By 2020, avg mobile connection speed will increase 4.1X (619 Kbps to 2.515 Mbps).
AR MOBILE VIDEO By 2020, over 75% of the AR’s mobile data traffic will be video.
AR MOBILE TRAFFIC OFFLOAD By 2020, 47% of mobile data traffic will be offloaded to Wi-Fi/small cell networks.
AR MOBILE SMART DEVICES TRAFFIC By 2020, smart devices will generate 98% of mobile data traffic.
AR MOBILE DATA TRAFFIC By 2020, mobile data traffic will reach 165.2 PB /per month.
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Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast; 2015–2020 Get more info—see Tools and Resources
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www.cisco.com/go/vni [email protected]