Presentación Carbon Masters- Foro Energético

Agenda

Introduction

•The Energy Trilemma

•Scotland & Ecuador

•Scotland’s journey towards a low carbon economy

•The Building blocks

- Policy Framework -Energy Innovation-Funding

•Lessons for Ecuador

My Journey

1975 Liverpool University BSc Chemistry (Hons) 1975 to 2000 Procter & Gamble UK, Turkey & Germany 2000 to 2002 PricewaterhouseCoopers (UK) 2002 to 2008 IBM (Consulting, Software)

(2006 Al Gore, Stern Review, 2007 IPCC 4AR)

2008 to 2009 Edinburgh University. MSc Carbon Management

2009 - set up Carbon Masters Ltd

Carbon Masters helps organisations to cut their carbon emissions and build a profitable future based on innovative clean energy solutions.

Oficina Principal - Edimburgo, RUCarbon MastersEdinburgh Centre for Carbon InnovationThe University of EdinburghEdinburghEH9 3JL

Oficina en Asia - Bangalore, IndiaCarbon MastersS-717, South Block, Manipal CentreDickenson Road, Off M G Road,Bangalore – 560032

Oficina América del Sur- Quito, EcuadorCarbon MastersAv. Humboldt N31-136y José GómezQuito, Ecuador

The Global Energy Trilemma

6

TheThe world of carbon

GHG emissions continue to rise globally

Energy Costs

UK Electricity Market Reform Consultation, Dec 2010

http://www.peakoil.net/GiantOilFields.html

Peak Oil

+Source: World Bank 2009

Middle Class Consumers

+

Decarbonisation 1UK proposed carbon floor price

+

Decarbonisation 2

Image: Paul Martin Eldridge / FreeDigitalPhotos.net

Urbanisation

UN World Population Prospects, 2008

=

The cost of energy will only rise going forward

Scotland vs Ecuador

Land Area: 78,777km2 283,560 Km2

Population 5.2 million 15.7 million

GDP $ 202 billion $91.0 billion

Total exports (excl Oiland gas) $119bn $11.6bn

Oil and Gas (% ) $ 47bn (28%) $14 bn (54%)

The Economic Benefits

Scotland's low carbon market worth around £8.5 billion in 2007-08 and forecast to rise to around £12 billion by 2015-16;Jobs in the low carbon sector in Scotland could grow by 4% a year to 2020, rising from 70,000 to 130,000, over 5% of the Scottish workforce;Scotland is already an exporter of low carbon technologies, with £845m worth of low carbon technologies exported in 2009/10 mainly to China, Spain, Malaysia, India and Romania;Scotland can be the green energy capital of Europe, and offshore wind alone could bring an estimated £30 billion of inward investment, and up to 20,000 jobs;Sales of offshore electricity could value £14 billion by 2050, the equivalent of £2,700 for each person in Scotland;

Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009

•Act passed unanimously by Scottish Parliament with strong support from business and civic society.

•Act sets world-leading target for Greenhouse Gas reductions compared with 1990:

•42% by 2020

•80% by 2050

Multiple national energy targets

Reduce final energy demand by 12% by 2020

100% of electricity demand from renewables by 2020

11% heat demand from renewables by 2020

30% total energy demand from renewables by 2020

500MW of community and locally owned renewables

No new thermal power stations without CCS fitted

Typical Developed Economy 2050 Fossil Fuel Based Carbon Emissions

Reduce Demand viaDemand managementEnergy efficiencyChange consumer behaviour

Decarbonize the electricity sector

Decarbonize cars and vans

Develop clean fossil fuels(carbon capture and storage)

Scotland's Total Emissions by Sector 2011

(51.28 MtCO2e)

TransportAlmost complete decarbonisation of road transport by 2050

Homes and CommunitiesA step-change in provision of energy efficient homes to 2030

Business, Industry and the Public Sector

Significant progress in transforming energy use in industry, business and the public sectors by 2027

Waste and Resource Efficiency

At least 70% of all waste recycled by

2025

Rural Land UseEnhanced natural carbon

capture by 2027

Scotland’s Emissions Reduction Policies

EnergyA largely decarbonised electricity generation sector by 2030

A largely decarbonised heat sector by 2050 with significant process by 2030

Energy30% of overall energy demand met by renewables by 2020Equivalent of at least 100% of gross electricity consumption met by renewables by 202011% of heat demand met by renewables by 2020

Reduce energy demand by 12% by 2020

At least 500 MW of local and community owned renewable energy by 2020

Demonstrate carbon capture and storage

Emissions Reduction Policies and Proposals

Homes and Communities Energy Efficiency

•Smart Meters for gas and electricity in every home (UK)•Domestic Building Energy Standards •Green Deal (UK)•Energy Company Obligation (UK) •Green Homes Cashback Scheme•National Retrofit Programme

Heating

•Warm Homes Fund (renewable heating)•Renewable Heat Incentive (UK) •District Heating Loan Fund

Home EnergyEfficiency Programmesfor Scotland (HEEPS)

-38%*

* Projected change from 1990 baseline


EU Emissions Trading System (large, intensive industries and aviation)

Energy Efficiency•CRC Energy Efficiency Scheme (UK)•Smart Metering •Building Energy Standards •Non-domestic Green Deal (UK)•Green Investment Bank Loans•EU Products Policy (performance standards)•Public sector energy efficiency

Heat•Renewable Heat Incentive (UK)•District Heating Loan Scheme

Business, Industry and the Public Sector

- 45%*



Transport Decarbonising Vehicles•Emissions standards (EU)•Biofuels (UK Transport Fuel Obligation)•Public sector electric vehicles•Electric vehicle infrastructure•Green Bus Fund•EU ETS – aviation

Sustainable Communities•Education – travel planning

Business Efficiencies•Fuel efficient driving•Travel planning•Freight efficiencies

- 7%*



Waste and Resource Efficiency

• 60% of household waste, recycled and/or prepared for re-use by 2020

• Recycle 70% of all waste (including commercial and industrial waste) by 2025

• Maximum of 5% of all waste sent to landfill by 2025

• Enhanced capture of landfill gas

- 86%*



Rural Land Use • Increase afforestation rate to 10kh per year

• 90% uptake of fertiliser efficiency measures

• Restoration of degraded peatland

• Wood First – Timber Construction Programme

- 58%*



Electricity Generation by fuel

27

Figure 4.1: Electricity generated in Scotland (GWh), 2000 to 2012

*Coal includes a small amount of non-renewable waste. Source: DECC, Energy Trends, December 2013 https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-of-energy-climate-change/series/energy-trends Figure 4.2: Percentage of electricity generated by fuel, Scotland and UK, 2012

*Coal includes a small amount of non-renewable waste. Source: DECC, Energy Trends, December 2013 https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-of-energy-climate-change/series/energy-trends

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Ele

ctric

ity g

ene

rate

d, G

Wh

Other Thermal

Other renewables

Hydro natural flow

Hydro pumped storage

Oil

Gas

Coal *

Nuclear

Installed capacity of renewables in Scotland

30

Renewable Electricity Installed renewable capacity has risen year on year since 2000 and as shown in Figure 4.4, there has been an increase from under 1,400 MW in 2000 to 5,800 MW in 2012. Despite the challenging economic conditions, 2012 saw an increase in renewable installed capacity of 990 MW, up approximately 17% from 2011. Figure 4.4: Installed capacity of renewable electricity (MW), Scotland, 2000 - Q3 2013

Source: DECC, Energy Trends, December 2013 https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-of-energy-climate-change/series/energy-trends

As at September 2013, Scotland had 6.5 GW of installed renewable energy generation capacity, with an additional 4.6 GW of capacity either under construction or consented, the majority of which is expected from wind generation, particularly offshore. Taking into account pipeline projects in planning takes this figure to a total of 20.5 GW (see figure 4.5) – around 3.5 times the level deployed by the end of 2012.

Electricity delivered in Scotland by renewables

32

electricity generation figures for Scotland show that generation during 2012 was 14,756 GWh – up 7% on 2011, with 40.3% of gross consumption in Scotland met using renewable sources (see Box 4 for more information on the definition).The update to the Renewables Routemap in October 2012 published a new interim target of 50% by 2015. Provisional data from the published DECC regional quarterly generation statistics for the first three quarters of 2013 point towards another strong year for renewable generation. As an illustration of this, an additional 665 MW of capacity (6,466 MW total) was operational compared with the end of 2012. Provisional estimates show that renewable output in the first three quarters of 2013 (10,917 GWh) is 4% higher than the same three quarters of 2012 – the current record year for renewable output. DECC’s quarterly regional data will provide an early indication of progress towards the output levels required to deliver the new interim target of 50% by 2015 in March 2016. However, it will not be possible to officially report against the new target until the regional consumption data is published in December 2016. Figure 4.6 below shows renewable generation output by technology on the left axis and the percentage of gross consumption on the right axis. The graph highlights the year on year growth in wind output, such that from 2010 onwards wind has generated a more electricity than hydro. Figure 4.6: Electricity generated from renewables, Scotland, 2000-2012

Source: DECC, Energy Trends, December 2013 https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-of-energy-climate-change/series/energy-trends Figure 4.7 shows renewable electricity generation broken down by UK country and by energy source. Scotland is the main location for UK hydro generation accounting for almost 89% of installed capacity and 92% of UK hydro output.

Domestic/Commercial Electricity Consumption

39

Figure 5.2: Average domestic electricity consumption per household (kWh), by UK country and region, 2012

Source: DECC, Sub-National Energy Consumption Statistics, December 2013 https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-of-energy-climate-change/series/sub-national-electricity-consumption-data

Figure 5.3 shows the 16.1% decrease in domestic electricity consumption per household from 2005 to 2012. Key drivers of this trend include increased prices and improved energy efficiency of appliances. Figure 5.3: Domestic electricity consumption per household (kWh), Scotland, 2005-2012

Source: DECC, Sub-National Energy Consumption Statistics, December 2013 https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/sub-national-electricity-consumption-data

41

Figure 5.5: Average domestic gas consumption per consumer (kWh), by UK country and region, 2012

Source: DECC, Sub-National Energy Consumption Statistics, December 2013 https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-of-energy-climate-change/series/sub-national-gas-consumption-data

Figure 5.6 shows that domestic gas consumption per consumer has decreased in Scotland by 26% between 2005 and 2012. Rising gas prices and improved energy efficiency in homes and boilers were contributing factors to this trend. Figure 5.6: Domestic gas consumption per consumer (kWh), Scotland, 2005-2012

Source: DECC, Sub-National Energy Consumption Statistics, December 2013 https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-of-energy-climate-change/series/sub-national-gas-consumption-data

Total domestic gas consumption between 2005 and 2012 decreased by 19%, as shown in figure 5.7. Over the same period, non-domestic gas sales reduced by 15%.

Domestic

Commercial

…has fallen

Energy Targets – Summary of Progress

HEAT

TRANSPORT

ELECTRICITY

ENERGY DEMAND

Off Shore wind farms- Scotland has 25% of Europe’s wind resource

Bi Fab- Scottish company based in FIFE

On shore wind farms- Whitelee Wind Farm nr Glasgow

The largest on-shore wind farm in the United Kingdom( 2nd in Europe) - 15 miles from Glasgow

- 215 Siemens and Alstom wind turbines

-Total capacity of 539 megawatts (MW)-Operational since 2009 extended in 2013

-Provides electricity for 300,000 homes

Wave& Tidal Technology- generating electricity from wave and tidal flows

Scotland has an estimated 10% of Europe’s Wave and energy resource

UK wave and tidal resurceCan potentially provide up to 20% of the UK’s electricity demand= 30 to 50 GW installed capacity

Wave power is more predictable than wind power and increases in the winter where in the UK electricitydemand peaks

AIM Zero carbon emissions at less than 5p/Kwh

Saltires Duck 1974- University of Edinburgh

Pelamis Wave Power Company based in Edinburgh developed a device based on duck design Now Operating in Orkney

Test tank makes waves in marine energy

A world-class testing facility for marine energy devices at the University of Edinburgh -The circular pool, 25 metres across and two metres deep-Recreates waves and currents from coastlines around the UK, Europe and beyond.

The FloWave Ocean Energy Research Facility is managed by University subsidiary company FloWave TT Ltd.

It can simulate scale version equivalents of waves up to 28 metres high and currents of up to 14 knots, using 2.4 million litres of water.

Waste to energy Solutions

Biogas is purified & bottled for

electricity & heat

Funding Sources for the transition to a low carbon economy

1 Green Investment Bank (UK) Head Quarters in Edinburgh Scotland The first bank of its type in the world. Created by the UK Government, our sole Shareholder, and capitalized with

an initial £3.8bn of public funds. They use this finance to back green projects on commercial terms and

mobilise other private sector investments into the Scottish green economy

2. Green Deal ( Domestic and non Domestic ) Loans to invest in energy efficiency measures paid for by the saving in the

energy consumed.

3. Public Sector Energy efficiency Fund Public sector organisations can access capital to invest in energy efficiency

measures where repayments come from the savings in energy expenditure. Invest to save.

Funding Sources for the transition to a low carbon economy

4.Scottish Green Bus Fund( $ 7million per year) Bus companies ( private and public) can apply for Grants to invest in

Low Carbon Buses ( Electric , hybrid , hydrogen )

5. Climate challenge fund ( $ 15 million per year)Grants of up to $ 225,000 available to support COMMUNITY led

projects to

Reduce carbon emissions

Make community improvements.

Help communities adapt to the impacts of climate change

To date $ 100 million has been awarded to 697 communities across Scotland

Lessons for Ecuador

Small countries can still play a big role in the transition to a low carbon economy( even those very dependent today on Fossil fuels )

The innovation that this can bring can create new low carbon products and services providing new business opportunities, more jobs and increased energy security

The road to a post oil low carbon future is a challenging one but Scotland has shown that it can be done.

Presentación Carbon Masters- Foro Energético

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