Presentación de PowerPoint - argentina.gob.ar · Executive summary 2 • Liquidity balances at the...
Transcript of Presentación de PowerPoint - argentina.gob.ar · Executive summary 2 • Liquidity balances at the...
Financial Program
April 5, 2019
Executive summary
2
• Liquidity balances at the Treasury remain at historical high levels as a result of higher than anticipated roll over rates during 1Q19.
• The refinancing during 1Q19 of a portion of the stock of LECAPs through instruments that mature beyond 2019 have reduced the required roll over rate to 35% of LECAPs with maturities in 2019.
• Roll over rates in USD LETEs have been close to 100% in 1Q19; however, as the refinancing has been done through instruments that mature within 2019, the required roll over rate remains at 46% for the year as a whole. Financing is fungible, a higher roll over rate in LECAPs would reduce the roll over rate required in LETEs. The combined average roll over rate can be as low as 40%. A 67% average roll over rate would eliminate net financing needs for 2020 due to higher than anticipated cash balances.
• Although the financial program for 2019 does not contemplate any intra-public sector net financing, during 1Q19 certain net amortization payments were made that shall be refinanced through placements during the rest of the year.
• The Treasury has announced its currency conversion program under which the Central Bank will sell USD60 million per day for a total of USD9.6 billion, through daily auctions until late 2019.
• The sale of USD by the Treasury is driven by the projection of peso-denominated expenditures and the currency composition of the anticipated financing. The sale of USD does not impact the financial strength of the Treasury’s position, only the currency composition of its cash balances.
• USD-denominated market securities maturing in 2020 represent only 35% of total maturities of bond instruments for the year.
Financial Program 2019
3
USD Bn 2019 2019
Needs (excl. Letes) 23.7 Sources (excl. Letes) 35.8
Primary deficit 0.0 Initial cash balance 4.7
Plan Gas 2017 0.6 Public Sector 1Q Refinancing 3.8
Interest (private, IFIs, financial public sector) 11.6 IMF 22.5
Principal payments (private) 8.5 Private financing 0.5
International Bonds 2.8 International markets 0.0
Global ’19 2.8
Domestic Bonds 2.8 Domestic market 0.0
Bonar ´24 1.1
ARGDUO ´19 1.5
Other 0.2
Repo 2.9 Repo 0.5
IFIs Principal Payments 3.0 IFIs (ex-IMF) 4.3
IADB + World Bank + CAF 1.3 IADB + World Bank + CAF 4.1
Other 0.1 Other 0.2
Paris Club 1.6 Paris Club 0.0
Letes (private) 19.3 Letes (private) 7.8
Letes in USD 9.9 Letes in USD 4.5
LECAPs and LECERs (ARS) 9.4 LECAPs and LECERs (ARS) 3.3
Nota: Totals may not add up due to rounding of intermediate figures.
4
USD Bn 2020 2020
Needs (excl. Letes) 27.3 Sources (excl. Letes) 27.3
Primary deficit -5.2 Initial cash balance 0.6
Plan Gas 2017 0.6
Interest (private, IFIs, financial public sector) 15.2 IMF 5.9
Principal payments (private) 13.7 Private financing 17.8
International Bonds 0.4 International markets 0.0
CHF Bond ´20 0.4
Domestic Bonds 11.1 Domestic market 16.3
Bonar ´24 1.1 Refinancing 11.1
Bonar ´20 2.5 New financing 5.2
Bopomo ´20 2.0
ARGDUO ´20 1.6
Bogato ´20 1.1
Boncer ´20 0.5
Bonte 2020 (banks only) 2.0
Others 0.3
Repo 2.2 Repo 1.5
IFIs Principal Payments 3.0 IFIs (ex-IMF) 3.0
Letes (private) 9.5 Letes (private) 9.5
Letes in USD 4.5 Letes in USD 4.5
LECAPs and LECERs (ARS) 5.0 LECAPs and LECERs (ARS) 5.0
Nota: Totals may not add up due to rounding of intermediate figures.
Financial Program 2020
Principal payments by bondholder type
USD bn Public Sector Private Sector Total
2019
Bonds in foreign currency 0.2 3.9 4.1
BIRAD/USD/6.25%/04-22-2019 (Global ’19) 0.0 2.8 2.8
BONAR/USD/8.75%/2024 0.2 1.1 1.3
Bonds in ARS 3.0 1.7 4.7
BONAR DUAL/DLK/4.5%/06-21-2019 (ARGDUO) 0.5 1.5 2.0
BONCER/ARS/4.25%+CER/04-15-2019 1.3 0.0 1.3
BONAR/ARS/BADLAR+300bps/06-10-19 0.4 0.0 0.4
OTHER 0.8 0.2 1.0
2020
Bonds in foreign currency 2.8 4.0 6.8
BIRAF/CHF/3.375%/12-10-2020 0.0 0.4 0.4
BONAR/USD/8.75%/2024 0.2 1.1 1.3
BONAR/USD/8%/08-10-2020 0.5 2.5 3.0
BONAR 2020/USD/29-05-2020 2.1 0.0 2.1
Bonds in ARS 5.2 7.5 12.7
BOTAPO/BOPOMO 21-06-2020 0.4 2.0 2.4
BONAR DUAL 2020/ARGDUO/4.5% 0.0 1.6 1.6
BOGATO/CER+4%/06-03-2020 0.0 1.1 1.1
BONTE 2020/26%/21-11-2020 (Bank Reserve Requirements) 0.8 2.0 2.8
BONCER/2.25%/28-04-2020 2.9 0.5 3.4
BONAR/BADLAR+325/01-03-2020 0.3 0.1 0.4
BONAR/BADLAR+300/23-12-2020 0.8 0.0 0.8
OTHER 0.0 0.2 0.2
Note: FX rate: ARS/USD 42,0 for 2019 and 44,3 for 2020. Totals may not add up due to rounding of intermediate figures.
5
Converting USD debt to pesos
6
$15,1 $14,8
$13,8 $13,0
$11,8 $11,2
$10,7 $10,1
$9,7 $10,1 $10,1 $9,9
ARS81 ARS85
ARS81 ARS81 ARS115
ARS202
ARS350 ARS367
ARS386 ARS411 ARS415 ARS412
Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19
Letes USD
Lecaps ARS
Letes and Lecaps held by private investors (USD bn)
7
ARS Lecap maturities held by private investors (ARS bn)
USD Letes maturities held by private investors (USD mm)
$852
$1.008 $1.016
$731 $716 $627
$444
$575
$858 $829
$632
$474
$563
12-Apr-19 26-Apr-19 10-May-19 24-May-19 14-Jun-19 28-Jun-19 26-Jul-19 16-Aug-19 30-Aug-19 13-Sep-19 27-Sep-19 11-Oct-19 25-Oct-19
$34
$73
$38
$74
$37
$67
$60
$16
$47
$40
12-Apr-19 30-Apr-19 10-May-19 31-May-19 28-Jun-19 30-Sep-19 31-Oct-19 28-Feb-20 30-Apr-20 31-Jul-20
Conservative maturity profile
Policy emphasis on domestic capital market development
8
Increase visibility of financial strategy
Anticipate 2019 auction calendar
New market makers program starting in January 2019
Government securities
Increase deductibility levels for life-insurance or retirement savings
Eliminate tax barriers on closed-end mutual funds for SMEs financing
Increase visibility of reforms in place
- Digital onboarding - Qualified investor definition - Securitization of digital assets - ON Simples
Regulatory environment
9
Healthier structure of domestic market
Growing number of advisors and reduction in the number of brokers
348 289 291
21 59 59
8 11
167
405 454
Dec-15 Dec-18 Mar-19
AP + AA (Fin. Advisors) AGGI AN ALyC (Brokers)
10
Mutual fund industry transformation Replacing Lebacs
Assets under management (ARS bn) and number of accounts
$213
$698
$557
$737 566.146
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
Dec
-15
Feb
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jun
-16
Au
g-1
6
Oct
-16
Dec
-16
Feb
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jun
-17
Au
g-1
7
Oct
-17
Dec
-17
Feb
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jun
-18
Au
g-1
8
Oct
-18
Dec
-18
Feb
-19
Fiscal tightening put in perspective
11
12,5% 13,1%
15,4% 16,2%
19,5% 19,6% 19,7% 21,0%
22,1% 23,2%
24,9% 24,0%
22,6%
20,2%
17,6%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Primary spending of the non-financial central administration (% of GDP)
-7.3% of GDP
Fiscal tightening in real terms
12
5,9%
3,3%
6,9%
4,1%
6,7%
-0,8%
-3,0%
-8,9%
-11,3%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (e) 2019 (e)
Change in primary spending (y/y in real terms)
13
Exports performance
Exports (LTM, USD millions)
Feb-19 $62bn
$50.000
$55.000
$60.000
$65.000
$70.000
$75.000
$80.000
$85.000
$90.000
dec
-10
apr-
11
aug-
11
dec
-11
apr-
12
aug-
12
dec
-12
apr-
13
aug-
13
dec
-13
apr-
14
aug-
14
dec
-14
apr-
15
aug-
15
dec
-15
apr-
16
aug-
16
dec
-16
apr-
17
aug-
17
dec
-17
apr-
18
aug-
18
dec
-18
Beef exports – USD mm
14
Sectorial evidence of export growth
$1.074 $1.249
$1.603
$2.325
$0
$500
$1.000
$1.500
$2.000
$2.500
2015 2016 2017 2018
Trucks – USD mm
$3.010 $2.590
$3.292
$4.217
$0
$1.000
$2.000
$3.000
$4.000
$5.000
2015 2016 2017 2018
Oil & Gas – USD mm
$2.129 $1.979 $2.373
$4.054
$0
$1.000
$2.000
$3.000
$4.000
$5.000
2015 2016 2017 2018
Non-Traditional Mining – USD mm
$1.416 $1.480
$2.016
$2.445
$0
$500
$1.000
$1.500
$2.000
$2.500
$3.000
2015 2016 2017 2018
116%
40% 90%
73%
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Simplified incorporation of new companies (1 day)
Single Window for International Trade (“VUCE”)
Pre-export burocracy fully digitalized
Simplified Exports (up to 300 kg or USD600k a year)
Reduce requirements to export services and food
Elimination or simplification of several registers
Fully digitalized car transfers
Digital background check
Simplified procedures for small tax payers (3M individuals)
Digital ID
Digital state records (birth, marriage, death certificates)
Customs insurance (three days)
Regulatory changes improving business development conditions
Annual freight transportation on Belgrano Cargas – Northern line (‘000 tons)
Improvements in productivity and comptetitiveness
15
16