Presentación de PowerPoint · 2021. 3. 8. · Goodwill 2.583,00 Intangible assets 2.464,00...

You ExecPRODUCT ROADMAP

By Cristià Calle (@CCalle)

02

The industry

01

The company

03

Net Asset Value

04

Earnings Power

Value

05

Conclusion

Price Target

Why this price?

Catalysts

VistraA value pick?

1.- The companyWhat they do

They own several plants

to produce electricity,

mainly focused in

Natural Gas

Electricity production

and retail distribution.

One of the largest

players in the US,

mainly focused in Texas

Long-term

strategy to

reduce carbon

emissions.

1999

TXU

LBO for 44$ B

2007

2014

Bankruptcy

Vistra went public, without the

transmission business

2016

2018

Dynergy merger

Ambit and Crius Acquisitions

2019

1.- The companyTimeline

1.- The companySome metrics

Price to free cash flow

5 times (20% free cash flow yield)

Market cap

11,2$ B

PE Ratio

12.8 times

Enterprise Value

20.95$ B

1.- The companyFuture

2.- The industryReference case by the U.S. Energy Information Administration

X Reference caseNatural gas keeps growing from now until 2050. Coal and nuclear reduction

01

2.- The industryReference case by the U.S. Energy Information Administration

X

3.- Net Asset Value (NAV)

Accounts receivable securization program 625,00

Long-term debt due currently 127,00

Trade accounts payable 897,00

Commodity and other derivative contractual liabilities 858,00

Margin deposits related to commodity contracts 11,00

Accrued taxes 171,00

Accred interest 53,00

Asset retirement obligations 115,00

Operating lease liabilities 10,00

Other current liabilities 516,00

Total current liabilities 3.383,00

Long-term debt 9.253,00

Operating lease liabilities 39,00

Commodity and other derivative contractual liabilities 532,00

Accumulated deferred income tax 2,00

Tax receivable Agreement obligation 411,00

Asset retirement obligations 2.353,00

Other non current liabilities 1.095,00

Total non-current liabilities 13.685,00

Total liabilities 17.068,00

NAV 8.431,00

September 2020

Cash 500,00

Restricted cash 28,00

Receivables, net 1.372,00

Inventories 508,00

Commodity and other contractual assets 883,00

Margin deposits related to commodity contracts 155,00

Prepaid expenses and other current assets 311,00

Total current assets 3.757,00

Restricted cash 22,00

Investments 1.632,00

Property, plant and equipment 13.564,00

Operating lease right of use assets 45,00

Goodwill 2.583,00

Intangible assets 2.464,00

Commodity and other contractual assets 321,00

Accumulated deferred income taxes 805,00

Other noncurrent assets 306,00

Total non current assets 21.742,00

Total assets 25.499,00

Value of the equity: 8,431$ M


• Reproduction costs

• Coal and Oil Plants Adjusted at 5% value

• Plants to be retired, adjusted at 0% of their value

• 20% Depreciation adjusted

NAV Adjustments -

PPE


Fuel Price average kwPrice MW

Gas CCGT 837,00 837.000,00

Gas CT 604,00 604.000,00

Solar 1.848,00 1.848.000,00

Nuclear 5.530,00 5.530.000,00

Coal 2.934,00 2.934.000,00

3.- Net Asset Value (NAV)Asset Location Location 2 ISO Technology Primary fuel Net Capacity MW Ownership interest Building cost Ownership Adjustment After adjustment Depreciation Total

Forney Forney TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1.912,00 100% 1.600.344.000,00 1.600.344.000,00 100% 1.600.344.000,00 20% 1.280.275.200,00

Lamar Paris TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1.076,00 100% 900.612.000,00 900.612.000,00 100% 900.612.000,00 20% 720.489.600,00

Odessa Odessa TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1.054,00 100% 882.198.000,00 882.198.000,00 100% 882.198.000,00 20% 705.758.400,00

Ennis Ennis TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 366,00 100% 306.342.000,00 306.342.000,00 100% 306.342.000,00 20% 245.073.600,00

Hays San Marcos TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1.047,00 100% 876.339.000,00 876.339.000,00 100% 876.339.000,00 20% 701.071.200,00

Midlothian Midlothian TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1.596,00 100% 1.335.852.000,00 1.335.852.000,00 100% 1.335.852.000,00 20% 1.068.681.600,00

Wise Poolville TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 787,00 100% 658.719.000,00 658.719.000,00 100% 658.719.000,00 20% 526.975.200,00

Martin Lake Tatum TX ERCOT ST Coal 2.250,00 100% 6.601.500.000,00 6.601.500.000,00 5% 330.075.000,00 20% 264.060.000,00

Oak Grove Franklin TX ERCOT ST Coal 1.600,00 100% 4.694.400.000,00 4.694.400.000,00 5% 234.720.000,00 20% 187.776.000,00

Coleto Creek Goliad TX ERCOT ST Coal 650,00 100% 1.907.100.000,00 1.907.100.000,00 5% 95.355.000,00 20% 76.284.000,00

Decordova Granbury TX ERCOT CT Gas 260,00 100% 157.040.000,00 157.040.000,00 100% 157.040.000,00 20% 125.632.000,00

Graham Graham TX ERCOT ST Gas 630,00 100% 380.520.000,00 380.520.000,00 100% 380.520.000,00 20% 304.416.000,00

Lake Hubbard Dallas TX ERCOT ST Gas 921,00 100% 556.284.000,00 556.284.000,00 100% 556.284.000,00 20% 445.027.200,00

Morgan Creek Colorado City TX ERCOT CT Gas 390,00 100% 235.560.000,00 235.560.000,00 100% 235.560.000,00 20% 188.448.000,00

Permian Basin Monahans TX ERCOT CT Gas 325,00 100% 196.300.000,00 196.300.000,00 100% 196.300.000,00 20% 157.040.000,00

Stryker Creek Rusk TX ERCOT ST Gas 685,00 100% 413.740.000,00 413.740.000,00 100% 413.740.000,00 20% 330.992.000,00

Trinidad Trinidad TX ERCOT ST Gas 244,00 100% 147.376.000,00 147.376.000,00 100% 147.376.000,00 20% 117.900.800,00

Wharton Boling TX ERCOT CT Gas 83,00 100% 50.132.000,00 50.132.000,00 100% 50.132.000,00 20% 40.105.600,00

Comanche Peak Glen Rose TX ERCOT Nuclear Nuclear 2.300,00 100% 12.719.000.000,00 12.719.000.000,00 100% 12.719.000.000,00 20% 10.175.200.000,00

Upton 2 Upton County TX ERCOT Solar/Battery Solar/Battery 180,00 100% 332.640.000,00 332.640.000,00 100% 332.640.000,00 20% 266.112.000,00

Baldwin Baldwin IL MISO ST Coal 1.185,00 100% 3.476.790.000,00 3.476.790.000,00 0% - 20% -

Edwards Bartonville IL MISO / PJM ST Coal 585,00 100% 1.716.390.000,00 1.716.390.000,00 5% 85.819.500,00 20% 68.655.600,00

Newton Newton IL MISO / PJM ST Coal 615,00 100% 1.804.410.000,00 1.804.410.000,00 0% - 20% -

Joppa/EEI Joppa IL MISO ST Coal 802,00 80% 2.353.068.000,00 1.882.454.400,00 5% 94.122.720,00 20% 75.298.176,00

Joppa CT 1-3 Joppa IL MISO CT Gas 165,00 100% 99.660.000,00 99.660.000,00 0% - 20% -

Joppa CT 4-5 Joppa IL MISO CT Gas 56,00 80% 33.824.000,00 27.059.200,00 0% - 20% -

Kincaid Kincaid IL PJM ST Coal 1.108,00 100% 3.250.872.000,00 3.250.872.000,00 0% - 20% -

Miami Fort 7&8 North Bend OH PJM ST Coal 1.020,00 100% 2.992.680.000,00 2.992.680.000,00 5% 149.634.000,00 20% 119.707.200,00

Zimmer Moscow OH PJM ST Coal 1.300,00 100% 3.814.200.000,00 3.814.200.000,00 0% - 20% -

Independence Oswego NY NYISO CCGT Gas 1.212,00 100% 1.014.444.000,00 1.014.444.000,00 100% 1.014.444.000,00 20% 811.555.200,00

Bellingham Bellingham MA ISO-NE CCGT Gas 566,00 100% 473.742.000,00 473.742.000,00 100% 473.742.000,00 20% 378.993.600,00

Blackstone Blackstone MA ISO-NE CCGT Gas 544,00 100% 455.328.000,00 455.328.000,00 100% 455.328.000,00 20% 364.262.400,00

Casco Bay Veazie ME ISO-NE CCGT Gas 543,00 100% 454.491.000,00 454.491.000,00 100% 454.491.000,00 20% 363.592.800,00

Lake Road Dayville CT ISO-NE CCGT Gas 827,00 100% 692.199.000,00 692.199.000,00 100% 692.199.000,00 20% 553.759.200,00

MASSPOWER Indian Orchard MA ISO-NE CCGT Gas 281,00 100% 235.197.000,00 235.197.000,00 100% 235.197.000,00 20% 188.157.600,00

Milford Milford CT ISO-NE CCGT Gas 600,00 100% 502.200.000,00 502.200.000,00 100% 502.200.000,00 20% 401.760.000,00

Fayette Masontown PA PJM CCGT Gas 726,00 100% 607.662.000,00 607.662.000,00 100% 607.662.000,00 20% 486.129.600,00

Hanging Rock Ironton OH PJM CCGT Gas 1.430,00 100% 1.196.910.000,00 1.196.910.000,00 100% 1.196.910.000,00 20% 957.528.000,00

Hopewell Hopewell VA PJM CCGT Gas 370,00 100% 309.690.000,00 309.690.000,00 100% 309.690.000,00 20% 247.752.000,00

Kendall Minooka IL PJM CCGT Gas 1.288,00 100% 1.078.056.000,00 1.078.056.000,00 100% 1.078.056.000,00 20% 862.444.800,00

Liberty Eddystone PA PJM CCGT Gas 607,00 100% 508.059.000,00 508.059.000,00 100% 508.059.000,00 20% 406.447.200,00

Ontelaunee Reading PA PJM CCGT Gas 600,00 100% 502.200.000,00 502.200.000,00 100% 502.200.000,00 20% 401.760.000,00

Sayreville Sayreville NJ PJM CCGT Gas 349,00 100% 292.113.000,00 292.113.000,00 100% 292.113.000,00 20% 233.690.400,00

Washington Beverly OH PJM CCGT Gas 711,00 100% 595.107.000,00 595.107.000,00 100% 595.107.000,00 20% 476.085.600,00

Calumet Chicago IL PJM CT Gas 380,00 100% 229.520.000,00 229.520.000,00 100% 229.520.000,00 20% 183.616.000,00

Dicks Creek Monroe OH PJM CT Gas 155,00 100% 93.620.000,00 93.620.000,00 100% 93.620.000,00 20% 74.896.000,00

Miami Fort (CT) North Bend OH PJM CT Oil 77,00 100% 225.918.000,00 225.918.000,00 0% - 20% -

Pleasants Saint Marys WV PJM CT Gas 388,00 100% 234.352.000,00 234.352.000,00 100% 234.352.000,00 20% 187.481.600,00

Richland Defiance OH PJM CT Gas 423,00 100% 255.492.000,00 255.492.000,00 100% 255.492.000,00 20% 204.393.600,00

Stryker Stryker OH PJM CT Oil 16,00 100% 46.944.000,00 46.944.000,00 5% 2.347.200,00 20% 1.877.760,00

Moss Landing 1& 2 Moss Landing CA CAISO CCGT Gas 1.020,00 100% 853.740.000,00 853.740.000,00 100% 853.740.000,00 20% 682.992.000,00

Oakland Oakland CA CAISO CT Oil 165,00 100% 484.110.000,00 484.110.000,00 5% 24.205.500,00 20% 19.364.400,00

Total 38.470,00 65.357.607.600,00 33.349.398.920,00 26.679.519.136,00


• Receivables

• Intangibles

Other adjustments


NAV: 21,865 $ M

September 2020 Adjustments Restated

Cash 500,00 - 500,00

Restricted cash 28,00 - 28,00

Receivables, net 1.372,00 58,00 1.430,00

Inventories 508,00 - 508,00

Commodity and other contractual assets 883,00 883,00

Margin deposits related to commodity contracts 155,00 155,00

Prepaid expenses and other current assets 311,00 311,00

Total current assets 3.757,00 3.815,00

Restricted cash 22,00 - 22,00

Investments 1.632,00 - 1.632,00

Property, plant and equipment 13.564,00 13.734,52 27.298,52

Operating lease right of use assets 45,00 45,00

Goodwill 2.583,00 537,00- 2.046,00

Intangible assets 2.464,00 2.464,00- -

Commodity and other contractual assets 321,00 321,00

Accumulated deferred income taxes 805,00

Other noncurrent assets 306,00 306,00

Total non current assets 21.742,00 31.670,52

Total assets 25.499,00 35.485,52

Accounts receivable securization program 625,00 625,00

Long-term debt due currently 127,00 127,00

Trade accounts payable 897,00 897,00

Commodity and other derivative contractual liabilities 858,00 858,00

Margin deposits related to commodity contracts 11,00 11,00

Accrued taxes 171,00 171,00

Accred interest 53,00 53,00

Asset retirement obligations 115,00 115,00

Operating lease liabilities 10,00 10,00

Other current liabilities 516,00 516,00

Total current liabilities 3.383,00 3.383,00

Long-term debt 9.253,00 9.253,00

Operating lease liabilities 39,00 39,00

Commodity and other derivative contractual liabilities 532,00 532,00

Accumulated deferred income tax 2,00 2,00

Tax receivable Agreement obligation 411,00 411,00

Asset retirement obligations 2.353,00 2.353,00

Other non current liabilities 1.095,00 1.095,00

Total non-current liabilities 13.685,00 10.237,00

Total liabilities 17.068,00 13.620,00

4.- Earnings Power Value (EPV)

• Sustainable EBIT (14% of revenue)

• Normalization of Depreciation and Amortization

• 25% Tax rate

• 10% discount rate

• 2 scenarios: Not smoothed, and smoothed

EPV


2019 Adjustment Restated

EBIT 1.653,26 100% 1.653,26

Depreciation adjustment 1.267,00

Pretax earnings 2.920,26

Tax 730,07

Earnings 2.190,20

Earnings Power Value 21.901,95

Debt 9.380,00

Cash 528,00

EPV Equity 13.049,95

Not smoothed: EPV 13B Smoothed: EPV 13,6 B

2019 Adjustment Smoothed

EBIT 1.653,26 100% 1.653,26



Tax 730,07

Earnings 2.190,20


Debt 8.823,15

Cash 528,00



• Sustainable EBIT (14% of revenue)

• Normalization of Depreciation and Amortization

• 25% Tax rate

• 7% discount rate

• 2 scenarios: Not smoothed, and smoothed

EPV


Not smoothed: EPV 22,4 B Smoothed: EPV 22,9 B

2019 Adjustment Restated

EBIT 1.653,26 100% 1.653,26



Tax 730,07

Earnings 2.190,20


Debt 9.380,00

Cash 528,00


2019 Adjustment Smoothed

EBIT 1.653,26 100% 1.653,26



Tax 730,07

Earnings 2.190,20


Debt 8.823,15

Cash 528,00


5.- Conclusions

02

01

03

04

Margin of safety50%

Why so cheap?Renewable's disruption

CatalystsBuybacksInvestment grade (H2 2021)New renewable plants

A good value pick Enough margin of safety in an overprice environment

Disclaimer

The information contained in this publication is not intended to constitute individual investment

advice and is not designed to meet your personal financial situation. The opinions expressed in this

publication are those of the publisher and are subject to change without notice. The information in

this publication may become outdated and there is no obligation to update any of such information.

Further, the author makes no representation, and it should not be assumed that past investment

performance is an indication of future results.

This article is has been published for educational purposes only and should be used consequently.

The information contained herein does not constitute and should not be construed as an offering of

advisory services or an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any securities or related financial

instruments in any jurisdiction.

I own a participation in VST at the time of writing.

You ExecPRODUCT ROADMAP

By Cristià Calle (@CCalle)

Questions?

Presentación de PowerPoint · 2021. 3. 8. · Goodwill 2.583,00 Intangible assets 2.464,00...

Documents

Transcript of Presentación de PowerPoint · 2021. 3. 8. · Goodwill 2.583,00 Intangible assets 2.464,00...