Preparing for the Coming 5G Tsunamilogtel-courses.com/dl/Roger_Lanctot.pdf · •Augmented/virtual...
Transcript of Preparing for the Coming 5G Tsunamilogtel-courses.com/dl/Roger_Lanctot.pdf · •Augmented/virtual...
January 16, 2019 Copyright© Strategy Analytics, Inc. 1
Preparing for the Coming 5G Tsunami
Roger C. Lanctot
Director, Connected Mobility
MAXIMIZING COVERAGE, CAPACITY, AND PERCEIVED USER EXPERIENCE
• Massive MIMO (Multiple Input/Multiple Output) and beamforming: Massive MIMO uses many signals in an array to increase the capacity of a network. Beamforming is a technique to have a specific signal follow a device as it moves with a dedicated connection– like a beacon rather than a wide signal.
• Carrier aggregation is used to combine spectrum across different bands (or in-band to combine carriers) to deliver more bandwidth to each connection and increase data traffic capacity; used already in 4G.
• Cell edge performance: how well a connection is maintained and speed of throughput at the edge of a cell (farthest from the cell tower/antenna) is important for user perception of the quality of the network; 4G Advanced Pro and 5G improve this.
• Number of connections handled per cell is important as more devices are connected to networks (density of connections) – 5G will be able to handle this increase in density
January 16, 2019 2
Source: SK Telecom
5G Improves Network Performance
Copyright© 2019 Strategy Analytics, Inc.
5G COMMERCIAL LAUNCHES START TO RAMP UP IN 2019, 2020
• Commercial 5G networks will launch in 15 markets globally at some level in 2019.
• Market leaders in terms of 5G coverage and rollout will be China, Korea, Japan and USA.
• User-linked 5G connections will grow from 6 million in 2019 to 590 million in 2023.
• Initial 2018/19 deployments will be supported by modems and FWA.
• 5G smartphone shipments will outpace modems in the second half of 2019
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WHY 5G MATTERS
• Lower latency communications
• Device to device connections
• Greater reliability
• Network slicing
• Layered, ubiquitous connectivity
• True IoT – network of everything
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• New vehicle architecture(s)
• New business models
• New development strategy
• New organizational structure
• New priorities – privacy, security, autonomy
• Changing vehicle ownership and usage
Auto industry to wireless industry:
You’ve got our attention!
ADVANTAGES OF 5G
• Lower cost
• Greater range
• Lower latency
• Interoperability with LTE
• Infrastructure – introduction of microcells
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WHAT’S THE PROBLEM?
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• People aren’t buying enough electric cars – they’re expensive
• Autonomous driving is a feature – people won’t own autonomous cars
• Regulators, legislators and cities have spoken: They want electric and autonomous and SHARED transportation
• The true financial implications of privacy regulations and cybersecurity vulnerability are not yet known – may be determined by courts
NEW CONNECTIVITY SOLUTIONS ON THE WAY
• Reprovisionable SIM
• Multiple-carrier platform
• Dual SIM Dual Access (DSDA)
• Add car to existing wireless plan
• Global connectivity platform
• Zero-rating of particular data types
• Lifetime subscription
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CORE 5G-ENABLED APPLICATIONS
• Autonomous driving
• Remote control
• Platooning
• Collision avoidance
• Inter-vehicle communications (V2V)
• Vehicle to infrastructure communications (V2I)
• Vehicle to pedestrian communications (V2P)
• Over-the-air updates
Regulators are requiring autonomous vehicles be equipped with remote control – it is likely that only 5G can delivery the necessary low latency for this application.
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NEW VALUE PROPOSITIONS
• Ubiquitous connectivity
• Inter-vehicle communication
• Data collection, aggregation, interpretation, sharing
• Monetization of data – data brokering
• Artificial intelligence
• Machine learning
• Neural networks
• Augmented/virtual reality
• Contextualized marketing
• OTA updates
• Cloud navigation – support for autonomous driving
• Enhanced cybersecurity
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CYBERSECURITY – DO WE UNDERSTAND THE CHALLENGE?
FCA class action suit = $2,000 in exposure/car
Hacking cars via enterprise and enterprise via cars
Automotive cybersecurity may soon be required by law
Cars will never be certifiably secure
EMBEDDED CONNECTIONS ARE FOR CUSTOMER RETENTION
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“One percent of customer retention is worth $700M.”
- Alicia Boler Davis Executive Vice President Global Manufacturing,
Manufacturing Engineering and Labor Relations at General
MotorsIt is 5-7x more
expensive to acquire than it is to retain a
customer.
- Capgemini analyst
EMBEDDED TELEMATICS
OEM REGIONAL SHIPMENT VIEW
January 16, 2019 Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 14
Telematics Shipments: 31 Million units in 2017 to 84 Million units in 2025
• North America: eCall/Telematics highly dependent on car maker strategies
• Europe: eCall telematics highly dependent on regulatory activity and selected OEMs
• Japan: Navigation is still dominant, Telematics roll-out is lead by Toyota
• China: Will be the #1 region for embedded Telematics shipments by 2021 (North America #2)
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OEM EMBEDDED TELEMATICS
CELLULAR MODEM SHIPMENTS - GLOBAL
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2.5G 3G 4G/LTE 5G
Telematics Forecast 2017 vs. 2025 (31 Mil. units 84 Mil. units)
• 2.5G Network: 3.5 Mil units in 2017 to 0K units from 2020
• 3G Network: 18.8 Mil in 2017 units to 3.8 Mil units in 2025
• 4G/LTE Network: 9.6 Million units in 2017 to 67 Mil units in 2025
• 5G Network: 12.5 Million units in 2025
OEM EMBEDDED TELEMATICS
ACTIVE VEHICLE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY REGION
January 16, 2019 Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 16
Leading Regions:
• North America: Market Driver - Single Market
• Europe: Market Driver – eCall
• China: Market Driver –Biggest Global Car market
Global Active Subscriptions Will Exceed 250 Million by 2022
Telematics 1.0
Telematics 2.0
OEM INFOTAINMENT:
REGIONAL SHIPMENT REVENUES
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Tier 1 Revenue Growth: 2017 vs. 2025: +17.7% ($33.5 Bil. to $41.8 Bil.)
• China +42.6%: From $7.5 Billion in 2017 $10.8 Billion in 2025 (CAGR 4.5%)
• North America +4.4%: From $7.7 Billion in 2017 $8.1 Billion in 2025 (CAGR 0.5%)
• Europe +7.6%: From $10.1 Billion in 2017 $10.9 Billion in 2025 (CAGR 0.9%)
• Japan -2.1%: From $3.28 Billion in 2017 $3.21 Billion in 2025 (CAGR -0.3%)
• India: +75%: From $795 Million in 2017 to $1.4 Billion in 2025 (CAGR 7.3%)
• Brazil: +35.8%: From $1.1Billion in 2017 to $1.4 Billion in 2025 (CAGR 3.9%)
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CELLULAR BECOMES MISSION CRITICAL
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Example is Safety - There is increasing reliance on:
• LIDAR, RADAR
• Cameras
• Contextual awareness with the objective of collision avoidance
…most of these systems have
COMPLEX software…
TOTAL ADAS OVER $56B BY 2025
• Best combination of growth/size is in Distance Warning
• AEB is the key feature in that category
• Other emerging systems (e.g. Camera Mirror Replacement) to remain comparatively small
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SENSOR TRENDS
• Ultrasonic • Not going away…yet?
• Longer range, higher resolution
• LiDAR• Massive M&A / investment activity
• Still many different technology paths being pursued
• Danger of hype?
• RADAR• Emergence of CMOS-based sensors
• Higher-resolutions / frequencies
• Camera• Move to higher resolutions – 8 MP in the
pipeline for forward-looking cameras
• More use of machine vision technology in areas where not commonly applied – e.g. parking / surround view systems
• Growing interest in centralized architectures and processing of “raw” data• But conventional distributed systems will
remain mainstream well into the 2020s
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We still expect ALL of camera / LiDAR / RADAR to prosper and growThere will be no sensor “Winner”
OVERALL SENSOR DEMAND (B$)
Sep 2018 Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2018 21
• Room for all sensor types to grow
• RADAR and camera see shares of total market to decline slowly from 2019
• LiDAR to grow share from 3% to 21% over forecast
• Ultrasonic share also to fall in dollar terms
• Note: camera costs exclude processing
CAMERA GROWTH ANALYSIS
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• Over 2 cameras per vehicle by 2024
• High-end luxury sedan will see ~10 cameras
• Percentage of cameras used in front windshield application is rising
• Fastest growth is in internal cameras
Note: Stereo camera counted as 2x cameras. Trifocal camera counted as 3x cameras
RADAR GROWTH ANALYSIS
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• Average of 1.5 RADAR sensors per vehicle in 2025• Compares with 2.3 for cameras
• E- and F-Segment sedans to see highest fitment
• Fastest growth in medium-range RADARs
LIDAR GROWTH ANALYSIS
• Market currently dominated by “Simple” LiDARs for AEB
• Rapid growth expected in next-gen devices for automated driving
• Market still emerging – many technologies not mature
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GEN 2.0 - TELEMATICS ARCHITECTURE OVERVIEW - UPDATE
January 16, 2019 Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 25
Cloud
IoT
OTA
OEMs
Telematics ECU
Cloud
Smart Antenna
Headunit/
Cockpit Domain
Controller
Telematics ECUCockpit
Domain Controller
Smart Antenna
Body
Chassis
ADASEthernet
Powertrain
ADASECU
PowertrainECU
Body ECU
Chassis ECU
Gen 2.0
AUTOMOTIVE DOMAIN ARCHITECTURE UPDATE
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Gateway ECU
TCU
Cockpit Domain
Controller
Center Display ECU
Instrument Cluster Display
HUD (Optional)
Safety Domain
Controller
Body Domain
Controller
Powertrain Domain
Controller
Powertrain ECU 1
Powertrain ECU 2
Body ECU 1
Body ECU 2
Safety ECU 1
Safety ECU 2
Chassis Domain
Controller
Chassis ECU 1
Chassis ECU 2
Gateway ECU + Domain Controllers
January 16, 2019 Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
COCKPIT DOMAIN CONTROLLER ECU
HIGH-LEVEL VIEW
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• Auto industry moving toward consolidation of ECUs• Some of the first ECUs to be consolidated are the instrument cluster and the headunit• Could be used drive multiple displays
Instrument Cluster Display
Center Information
Display
HUD (Optional)
Cockpit Domain
Controller
COCKPIT DOMAIN CONTROLLER ECU
FEATURES
Cockpit Domain Controllers typically have the following features (features ultimately depend on OEM requirements):
• Support for multiple displays, as noted
• Radio: AM/FM, digital radio, satellite radio (potentially)
• Device connectivity: USB, Bluetooth, Wi-Fi
• Smartphone projection support (e.g. Android Auto, Apple CarPlay)
• Either hypervisor or multi-core processor to support running multiple OSes
• Camera input (e.g. for backup cameras, surround view cameras, etc.)
• Navigation
• Voice input/digital assistants
• ADAS alerts (e.g. those displayed on an instrument cluster)
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CONCLUSIONS
• Ubiquitous connectivity is transforming how vehicles are used and owned
• INDIRECT monetization of data will pay for connectivity
• Autonomous vehicles are already here – Cellular V2I is the essential application to open up autonomy in urban areas – will take longer than anyone expects
• Privacy, security concerns must be overcome to enable this new connectivity environment
• Data sharing and inter-vehicle communications are in the process of being resolved today
• 5G collaboration between automotive and wireless industries is a game changer for solving these challenges
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