Nuclear 2.0:Past, potential and politics

Scott NolanPartner, Founders Fund

Energy Portfolio

StorageGeneration

More to come…

@scottnolan

I. Energy

II. Nuclear

III. Regulation

IV. Politics

@scottnolan

Fossil fuels still dominate US consumption

Source: US Energy Information Association, http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec1_7.pdf @scottnolan

Global energy mix hasn’t changed much in 25 years

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2011 @scottnolan

Peak oil still a valid concern

Source: Colin Campbell, Association for the Study of Peak Oil, 2012 @scottnolan

Climate change: harder to find skeptics

Source: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report - Summary for Policymakers @scottnolan

Tech alone won’t achieve 2035 targets

Source: World Energy Outlook 2011, Executive Summary @scottnolan

Meanwhile, forecasts call for status quo through 2035

2035

Source: SRI Engineering, Stanford Global Climate and Energy Project @scottnolan

Nuclear the most effective option to reduce CO2

Source: Lang, “Emission Cuts Realities - Electricity Generation” 2010 @scottnolan

Nuclear also the most affordable and scalable

Source: Lang, “Emission Cuts Realities - Electricity Generation” 2010 @scottnolan

Globally, heading backwards

Source: US Energy Information Administration @scottnolan

I. Energy

II. Nuclear

III. Regulation

IV. Politics

@scottnolan

The basics

FusionFission

Splitting heavy atoms

Operating today

Combining light atoms

Breakthroughs needed

@scottnolan

40s & 50s: nuclear’s golden age

Chicago Pile-1 (1942) USS Nautilus (1954)

@scottnolan

Limitless possibility

“Our children will enjoy in their homes electrical energy too cheap to meter... It is not too much to expect that our

children will know of great periodic regional famines in the world only as matters of history, will travel effortlessly over

the seas and under them and through the air with a minimum of danger and at great speeds, and will experience

a lifespan far longer than ours, as disease yields and man comes to understand what causes him to age."

Lewis StraussChairman of US Atomic Energy Commission

1954

@scottnolan

By early 80s, headed off the rails…

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Valid concerns

WasteSafety Cost

@scottnolan

35 years later: same challenges?

WasteSafety Cost

@scottnolan

Investment criterion 1: solve all three

WasteSafety Cost

@scottnolan

Why won’t it lead to another

Fukushima?

How will this not worsen waste challenges?

Can it be cheaper than

coal and LNG?

The paths not taken

Novel moderators

Alternative fuels

Advanced coolants

Modular architectures

@scottnolan

Path dependencies matter

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A nuclear renaissance?

And many more…

@scottnolan

TAP’s answers to Criterion 1

WasteSafety Cost

@scottnolan

Investment criterion 2: barriers to entry

@scottnolan

Technology

Brand

Scale

Network effects

Investment criterion 2: where to focus

@scottnolan

Technology

Brand

Scale

Network effects

Investment criterion 3: go-to-market strategy

@scottnolan

Given the broader environment, how do you commercialize in an

acceptable time frame?

Nuclear innovation and regulation

@scottnolan

A history of important progress

@scottnolan

I. Energy

II. Nuclear

III. Regulation

IV. Politics

@scottnolan

Deep innovation across highly regulated industries

@scottnolan

The next wave of low-hanging fruit

@scottnolan

More changes to come

@scottnolan

Regulation as barrier to entry

Process head starts

High cost of entry

Operational complexity

Thought leadership

@scottnolan

I. Energy

II. Nuclear

III. Regulation

IV. Politics

@scottnolan

Mr. Smith tried hard

@scottnolan

How things go wrong

Have no clear goals

Take a reactionary approach

Rely on a trade org to represent you

Never spend time in DC

Rely on intros during a crisis to fix things

@scottnolan

How things go right

Have clear issues you want to win

Be proactive and outcome-focused

Have a portfolio of representation

Build relationships, awareness in DC

Drive the conversation before any crisis

@scottnolan

Not a zero sum game

Source: Wired, May 16 2015 @scottnolan

Working with the government for change

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Working together for change

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Thanks

@scottnolan