Preliminary Report - · Wednesday 29 July 2015. Current electoral structure ... the VEC’s...

Preliminary Report 2015 Warrnambool City Council Electoral Representation Review Wednesday 23 September 2015

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Preliminary Report: 2015 Warrnambool City Council Electoral Representation Review

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Contents

1 Executive summary ..................................................................................................................... 4

2 Background ................................................................................................................................. 6

2.1 Legislative basis ................................................................................................................... 6

2.2 The VEC’s approach ............................................................................................................ 6

2.3 The VEC’s principles ............................................................................................................ 8

2.4 The electoral representation review process ........................................................................ 8

3 Warrnambool City Council representation review ..................................................................... 10

3.1 Background ........................................................................................................................ 10

3.2 Public information program ................................................................................................ 11

3.3 Public submissions (preliminary) ........................................................................................ 11

4 The VEC’s findings and options ................................................................................................ 16

4.1 Preliminary report findings .................................................................................................. 16

4.2 Options ............................................................................................................................... 22

5 Next steps ................................................................................................................................. 23

5.1 Response submissions ...................................................................................................... 23

5.2 Public hearing ..................................................................................................................... 23

5.3 Final report ......................................................................................................................... 24

Appendix 1: List of preliminary submissions ................................................................................ 25

Appendix 2: Option maps ............................................................................................................. 26

Appendix 3: Public information program ...................................................................................... 29


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1 Executive summary

The Local Government Act 1989 (the Act) requires the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) to

conduct an electoral representation review of each municipality in Victoria before every third

council general election.

The purpose of an electoral representation review is to recommend an electoral structure that

provides fair and equitable representation for the persons who are entitled to vote at a general

election of the council. The matters considered by a review are:

the number of councillors

the electoral structure of the council (whether the council should be unsubdivided or

divided into wards and, if subdivided, the details of the wards).

The VEC conducts all reviews on the basis of three main principles:

1. ensuring the number of voters represented by each councillor is within 10 per cent of the

average number of voters per councillor for that municipality

2. taking a consistent, State-wide approach to the total number of councillors and

3. ensuring communities of interest are as fairly represented as possible.

2015 electoral representation review

The current electoral representation review for Warrnambool City Council commenced on

Wednesday 29 July 2015.

Current electoral structure

The last representation review of Warrnambool City Council took place in 2004. At the time of the

review, Warrnambool City Council was represented by seven councillors in single-councillor

wards. Following the review, the VEC recommended that the municipality change to consist of

seven councillors elected from the municipality as a whole.

Preliminary submissions

The VEC received 12 submissions to the representation review of the Warrnambool City Council.

Submissions were received from a broad variety of stakeholders including members of the

public, current and former councillors and a local member of Parliament.


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VEC options

The following options are being considered by the VEC:

Option A (preferred option)

Warrnambool City Council continue to consist of seven councillors elected from an

unsubdivided municipality.

Option B (alternative option)

Warrnambool City Council consist of seven councillors elected from two

two-councillor wards and one three-councillor ward.


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2 Background

2.1 Legislative basis

The Act requires the VEC to conduct an electoral representation review of each municipality in

Victoria before every third general council election, or earlier if gazetted by the Minister for Local

Government.

The Act specifies that the purpose of a representation review is to recommend the number of

councillors and the electoral structure that provides ‘fair and equitable representation for the

persons who are entitled to vote at a general election of the Council.’1

The Act requires the VEC to consider:

the number of councillors in a municipality and

whether a municipality should be unsubdivided or subdivided.

If a municipality should be subdivided, the VEC must ensure that the number of voters

represented by each councillor is within 10 per cent of the average number of voters per

councillor for that municipality.2 On this basis, the review must consider the:

number of wards

ward boundaries (and ward names) and

the number of councillors that should be elected for each ward.

2.2 The VEC’s approach

Deciding on the number of councillors

The Act allows for a municipality to have between 5 and 12 councillors, but does not specify how

to decide the appropriate number.3 In considering the number of councillors for a municipality,

the VEC is guided by the Victorian Parliament’s intention for fairness and equity in the local

representation of voters under the Act.

The VEC considers that there are three major factors that should be taken into account:

diversity of the population

councillors’ workloads and

the situation in similar municipalities.

1 Section 219D of the Local Government Act 1989. 2 ibid. 3 Section 5B(1) of the Local Government Act 1989.


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Generally, those municipalities that have a larger number of voters will have a higher number of

councillors. Often large populations are more likely to be diverse, both in the nature and number

of their communities of interest and the issues of representation.

However, the VEC considers the particular situation of each municipality in regards to: the nature

and complexity of services provided by the Council; geographic size and topography; population

growth or decline; and the social diversity of the municipality, including social disadvantage and

cultural and age mix.

Deciding the electoral structure

The Act allows for a municipality ward structure to be:

unsubdivided—with all councillors elected ‘at-large’ by all voters or

subdivided into a number of wards.

If the municipality is subdivided into wards, there are a further three options available:

1. single-councillor wards

2. multi-councillor wards or

3. a combination of single-councillor and multi-councillor wards.

A subdivided municipality must have internal ward boundaries that provide for a fair and

equitable division of the municipality, and ensure that the number of voters represented by each

councillor remains within 10 per cent of the average number of voters per councillor for the

municipality.

In considering which electoral structure is most appropriate, the VEC considers the following

matters:

communities of interest, consisting of people who share a range of common concerns,

such as geographic, economic or cultural associations

the longevity of the structure, with the aim of keeping voter numbers per councillor within

the 10 per cent tolerance as long as possible

geographic factors, such as size and topography

the number of voters in potential wards, as wards with many voters often have a large

number of candidates, which can lead to an increase in the number of informal (invalid)

votes and

clear ward boundaries.


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2.3 The VEC’s principles

Three main principles underlie all the VEC’s work on representation reviews:

1. Ensuring the number of voters represented by each councillor is within 10 per cent

of the average number of voters per councillor for that municipality.

Over time, population changes can lead to some wards in subdivided municipalities having larger

or smaller numbers of voters. As part of the review, the VEC corrects any imbalances and also

takes into account likely population changes to ensure ward boundaries provide equitable

representation for as long as possible.

2. Taking a consistent, State-wide approach to the total number of councillors.

The VEC is guided by its comparisons of municipalities of a similar size and category to the

council under review. The VEC also considers any special circumstances that may warrant the

municipality having more or fewer councillors than similar municipalities.

3. Ensuring communities of interest are as fairly represented as possible.

Each municipality contains a number of communities of interest. Where practicable, the electoral

structure should be designed to ensure they are fairly represented, and that geographic

communities of interest are not split by ward boundaries. This allows elected councillors to be

more effective representatives of the people and interests in their particular municipality or ward.

2.4 The electoral representation review process

Developing recommendations

The VEC bases its recommendations for particular electoral structures on the following

information:

internal research specifically relating to the municipality under review, including Australian

Bureau of Statistics and .id (Informed Decisions) Pty Ltd data4; voter statistics from the

Victorian electoral roll; and other State and local government data sets

small area forecasts provided by .id (Informed Decisions) Pty Ltd

the VEC’s experience conducting previous electoral representation reviews of local

councils and similar reviews for State elections

the VEC’s expertise in mapping, demography and local government

4 .id is a company specialising in population and demographic analysis that builds suburb-level demographic information products in most jurisdictions in Australia and New Zealand.


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careful consideration of all input from the public in written and verbal submissions

received during the review and

advice from consultants with extensive experience in local government.

Public involvement

Public input is accepted by the VEC:

in preliminary submissions at the start of the review

in response submissions to the preliminary report and

in a public hearing that provides an opportunity for people who have made a response

submission to expand on this submission.

Public submissions are an important part of the process, but are not the only consideration

during a review. The VEC ensures its recommendations are in compliance with the Act and are

formed through careful consideration of public submissions, independent research, and analysis

of all relevant factors, such as the need to give representation to communities of interest.


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3 Warrnambool City Council representation review 3.1 Background

Profile of Warrnambool City Council

The City of Warrnambool is located along the south-west coast of Victoria, bounded by Moyne

Shire inland and the Southern Ocean. The municipality covers an area of 121 square kilometres

with much of the land used for rural agriculture, particularly dairy farming. Population growth;

management of cultural and environmental heritage; and attracting investment to meet growing

demand in existing industries have been identified as key drivers of change in the municipality, in

line with neighbouring parts of Victoria’s south coast region.5

The municipality has a population of 33,501 people,6 almost 85 per cent of whom live in the

urban area of Warrnambool. The remaining 15 per cent are spread throughout a number of

smaller settlements in the municipality. The number of voters is currently estimated to be

25,850.7 The council area has a population density of approximately 277 people per square

kilometre, and approximately 3,693 voters per councillor.

Current population estimates in major towns

Warrnambool 28,413

Dennington 1,557

Allansford 1,413

Bushfield 586

Woodford 408

The municipality has a median age of 38, which is younger than the median age of 43 for rural

and regional Victoria generally. Between 2006 and 2011, the City of Warrnambool’s population

increased by 5.4 per cent, at an average rate of just over 1 per cent per year.8

Around 34 per cent of the population is aged 50 years or over, which is slightly lower compared

to the regional percentage of 38 per cent. While Warrnambool has traditionally been popular as a

retirement destination, it has also recently experienced growth in the number of people aged

between 20 and 39 years.9 The younger workforce (aged 25–34) is slightly higher in the

Warrnambool municipality than the average for regional Victoria.10

5 Victorian Government and local Councils, Great South Coast: Draft Regional Growth Plan, 2013, p.15. 6 Australian Bureau of Statistics, Estimated Resident Population, 2014. 7 Victorian Electoral Commission, Guide for Submissions: Warrnambool City Council, 2015. 8 Profile.id, Warrnambool City: Community Profile 2011 Census Results, p.12. 9 Warrnambool City Council, Warrnambool Council Plan 2013-17, 2014. 10 Profile.id, Warrnambool City: Community Profile 2011 Census Results, p.10.


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Current electoral structure

The last representation review of Warrnambool City Council took place in 2004. At the time of the

review, Warrnambool City Council was represented by seven councillors in single-councillor

wards. Following the review, the VEC recommended that the municipality change to consist of

seven councillors elected from the municipality as a whole.

3.2 Public information program

The Warrnambool City Council representation review commenced on Wednesday 29 July. The

VEC conducted a public information program to inform the community, including:

public notices printed in local and state-wide papers

a public information session to outline the review process and respond to questions from

the community

a media release announcing the commencement of the review

coverage through the municipality’s media, e.g. Council website or newsletter

a helpline and dedicated email address to answer public enquiries

ongoing information updates and publication of submissions on the VEC website and

a Guide for Submissions to explain the review process and provide background

information on the scope of the review.

See Appendix 3 for full details of the public information program.

3.3 Public submissions (preliminary)

The VEC received 12 preliminary submissions by the deadline for submissions at 5.00 pm on

Wednesday 26 August. Submissions were received from a broad mix of stakeholders including

members of the public; a former councillor; a former council candidate and a local member of

Parliament. The submissions are publicly available on the VEC website.

The matrix below provides an overview of preferences in the preliminary submissions. Detailed

analysis of the submissions follows.


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Submitter

wanted fewer wards

Submitter wanted ward

number to remain

unchanged

Submitter wanted more

wards

Submitter did not comment on

number of wards

Submitter wanted fewer councillors

Submitter wanted

councillor number to

remain unchanged

4* 1 1

Submitter wanted more councillors

1 5*

Submitter did not comment on

number of councillors

1

*One submission preferring an unsubdivided municipality with seven councillors also identified three wards of three councillors as an option.

Number of councillors

Submissions were almost evenly split on the appropriate number of councillors for the

Warrnambool municipality, with just over half recommending increasing the number of

councillors to nine. One submission did not comment on the preferred number of councillors. The

Proportional Society of Australia (PRSA) submission preferred either seven or nine councillors.

The balance of submissions recommended retaining the current number of seven councillors.

Increasing the number of councillors to nine

Of the six submissions suggesting that councillor numbers be increased to nine, two stated that

increasing the number of councillors was justified based on the municipality’s population growth.

Three of the submissions suggesting an increase in councillor numbers stated that it would assist

in the management of conflicts of interest. These submissions stated that several councillors are

required to excuse themselves from council business which may involve a conflict of interest,

and in some cases this can lead to difficulties reaching quorum or leave an even number of

councillors potentially resulting in a tied vote. These submissions suggested that increasing the

number of councillors to nine would help to meet quorum and reduce the risk of tied votes. One


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submission suggested that new councillors might be elected from the municipality’s growth

areas, and may take a strategic interest in council planning matters.

Retaining the current number of seven councillors

Six submissions recommended retaining the current number of seven councillors. These

submissions cited several reasons to retain the status quo. Some stated that seven was an

appropriate number of councillors to meet the needs of the municipality and that the overall

voter-to-councillor ratio was reasonable in relation to other councils of a similar size. One

submission described current councillor numbers as adequate.

Warrnambool City Council’s submission noted that the municipality was not large in geographic

area, and councillors were not required to travel long distances to serve the constituency. The

Council argued that Warrnambool had the fifth-lowest voter-to-councillor ratio in the category of

regional urban councils, and that the projected population growth for the municipality does not

justify increasing the number of councillors. The Council’s submission noted that increasing

councillor numbers would increase overall governance costs, and this concern was also raised

by another submitter.

The current Mayor of Warrnambool City Council, Councillor Michael Neoh, submitted separately

to the Council. Cr Neoh suggested that council numbers should be calculated based on the

VEC’s table of comparable regional urban councils and therefore stay at seven until 2024, at

which point it should then be increased to nine, based on voter number calculations at that point

in time. Cr Neoh’s submission referred to the recommendations of the recent Local Government

Electoral Review Panel for determining councillor numbers. The VEC notes that the Panel’s

recommendations are a reference point only at this point in time.

The PRSA supported either retaining the current number of seven councillors, or increasing the

number to nine to suit a three-ward three-councillor structure.

While those submissions in support of increasing the number of councillors to nine stated that it

would reduce the risks associated with conflicts of interest (such as not meeting quorum or tied

votes), a submission in favour of retaining the existing number of seven councillors refuted that

argument, suggesting that the number of councillors was not the cause of those issues.

Electoral structure

The submissions were almost evenly split on whether the municipality should be subdivided (six

submissions) or remain unsubdivided (five submissions). Two submissions did not comment on

the structure of the municipality. Two submissions referred to introducing a process for direct

election of the mayor, which is outside of the terms of reference of this representation review.


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A subdivided structure – three wards of three councillors each

The most common preference among submissions in favour of a subdivided structure (put

forward by three submitters) was a structure of three wards with three councillors each.

Of the submissions preferring this structure, two submissions stated that a subdivided model of

three wards would provide greater representation for the outer areas of Allansford, Bushfield,

Woodford and Dennington, areas which these submitters suggested were not adequately

represented under the current unsubdivided model. One submission suggested that the

municipality could be divided into north-west, central and eastern wards. Another submission

stated that dividing the municipality into three wards would result in a mix of residential, retail,

business, industrial and educational areas in each ward, and would be popular with the majority

of Warrnambool residents. This submission stated that it would be easier for candidates to make

contact with voters in a subdivided model, suggesting that an unsubdivided structure makes it

more difficult for candidates to cover the whole municipality.

The PRSA, which preferred either the current seven-councillor unsubdivided model or a three-

ward model with three councillors each, outlined the advantages of the proportional

representation vote counting system which could be achieved in multi-councillor wards and in

unsubdivided municipalities. The PRSA’s submission suggested that multi-councillor wards were

preferable to single-councillor wards as they maximise voters’ choice of candidates; result in

fewer ‘wasted votes’ as may be the case in single-councillor wards, which, in the PRSA’s view,

can also lead to majority control in council by councillors elected with less than 50 per cent of

voter support. The PRSA further stated that unsubdivided municipalities minimise the number of

councillors elected unopposed; that geographical boundaries in subdivided structures can unduly

influence poll results; and that communities of interest are not necessarily geographic.

Three submissions stated that ‘voting blocs’ in the current council structure had resulted from the

removal of ward boundaries at the time of the last representation review in 2004.

A subdivided structure – three wards

Two submissions identified a preference for a subdivided model with three wards, but did not

specify the number of councillors in each. These submissions both suggested that the wards

should be geographically based on the northern, central and eastern parts of the municipality.

One of these submissions commented extensively on the system of proportional representation,

suggesting that the Warrnambool municipality would benefit from a system which combined

ward-based councillors and councillors who represented the municipality as a whole. This

submitter stated that all voters would vote for all candidates, and councillors would campaign on

local ward issues as well as issues affecting the municipality as a whole. While a hybrid structure


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of ward councillors and councillors elected at-large used to be in place in some municipalities in

Victoria, it is no longer possible under the Act and is therefore outside the scope of this review.

Retaining the current unsubdivided structure

Five submissions identified a preference for an unsubdivided structure (and of these

submissions, all but one preferred to retain the current number of seven councillors). The main

reasons for retaining the status quo put forward in these submissions were that the municipality

was small in size so travelling long distances were not a factor in councillors’ workloads and that

the urban, compact nature of the municipality was suited to an unsubdivided structure.

Warrnambool City Council’s submission stated that the unsubdivided structure allows all voters

to vote for all candidates, and therefore have a say on who is elected to the whole council (rather

than just one candidate as would be the case elected in a single-councillor ward). The Council

also stated that in an unsubdivided structure, all councillors speak with equal weight on all issues

affecting the municipality, including city-wide strategic planning. In the Council’s view, an

unsubdivided structure minimises confusion for voters at election time and avoids the need for

by-elections to fill extraordinary vacancies. The Council also suggested that the unsubdivided

model was well-suited to Warrnambool City when compared to other councils in the regional

urban group of councils presented by the VEC in the Guide for Submissions.11

Cr Neoh suggested that the size of the municipality did not inhibit councillors in terms of time,

distance and travel, and that effective methods of communication such as phone, email and

social media assist both councillors and constituents to discuss local issues. Cr Neoh stated that

the representation review should take into consideration the forecast population growth within the

urban growth planning area, suggesting that this pattern will see greater ‘joining up’ of existing

communities, maintaining a compact footprint for councillors to serve constituents. Cr Neoh cited

the Warrnambool City-Wide Housing Strategy of 2013 to illustrate the location of greenfield

growth.

While some submissions in favour of subdivision stated that it would improve representation for

areas outside the urban centre of Warrnambool such as Allansford, Dennington, Bushfield and

Woodford, one submission in favour of an unsubdivided structure stated that they were not big

enough to warrant separate representation.

Some submissions in favour of subdivision were concerned that voting blocs had formed in

council as a result of the removal of ward boundaries following the VEC’s last representation

review of Warrnambool City Council. By contrast, two submissions in favour of an unsubdivided

municipality stated that parochialism could be exacerbated by a ward structure. 11 Victorian Electoral Commission, Guide for Submissions: 2015 Warrnambool City Council Electoral Representation Review, 2015, vec.vic.gov.au/files/WarrnamboolGuideForSubmissions2015.pdf. See also: Table 1 in this report.


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4 The VEC’s findings and options

4.1 Preliminary report findings

The VEC has taken into account the key themes expressed in highly detailed submissions to the

representation review, as well as internal research and analysis to develop two options for further

consultation. The options put forward by the VEC comply with the legislative equality

requirement, take into account the structures of other similar municipalities throughout Victoria,

and acknowledge communities of interest where possible. The models also largely reflect the two

most common options put forward in submissions to the representation review, comprising a

subdivided and an unsubdivided model.


The VEC has put forward two options that both retain the current number of seven councillors.

Warrnambool City Council currently sits comfortably in the category of regional urban councils

with seven councillors, proportionate to population and voter numbers within the municipality. As

outlined in Table 1, the City of Warrnambool has similar voter numbers to Wangaratta Rural City

and the City of Wodonga, municipalities which both have seven councillors. The first municipality

to have nine councillors in this category, Mildura Rural City, has over 10,000 more voters than

the City of Warrnambool and is much larger in geographic area. It should also be noted that as

part of the 2015 electoral representation review program, the VEC has recommended that the

City of Greater Shepparton should have two additional councillors, becoming a nine-councillor

municipality, in line with councils of a similar size and profile throughout Victoria.

Table 1: comparable regional urban councils to Warrnambool City Council

Municipality Population

(2011 Census)

Number of voters at last

review

Current estimate of

voters#


Number of voters per councillor

Greater Bendigo 100,617 78,399 83,641 9 9,293

Ballarat* 93,501 64,361 76,304 9 8,478

Latrobe 72,396 53,817 55,234 9 6,137

Greater Shepparton*

60,449 40,176 44,309 7 6,330

Mildura* 50,979 34,944 39,120 9 4,347

Wodonga* 35,519 24,094 28,574 7 4,082

Warrnambool* 32,029 24,274 25,850 7 3,693

Wangaratta* 26,815 20,274 22,122 7 3,160

Horsham* 19,279 14,610 15,863 7 2,266

Benalla 13,647 10,937 11,558 7 1,651

* The municipality is currently undergoing an electoral representation review by the VEC during 2015–16. # Voter estimate calculated after the January 2015 merge of the State electoral roll and Council-only electors as at the 2012 council elections.


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Managing conflicts of interest

Several submissions argued that the number of councillors for Warrnambool should be increased

to nine on the basis that this would assist in the management of conflicts of interest. The VEC

considers the management of conflicts of interest to be a council matter to be assessed by

councillors on a case-by-case basis, and cannot be taken into account by the VEC when

determining the appropriate number of councillors for a municipality.

Representing communities of interest – geographic size and socio-demographic profile

In addition to providing a fair and reasonable number of councillors in proportion to voters

compared with other councils, the VEC takes into account whether there are specific

circumstances that warrant more or fewer councillors than would be expected. Warrnambool City

is characterised by the urban area of Warrnambool, and several smaller towns in rural areas

surrounding Warrnambool. The municipality has a mix of land uses with industrial, coastal and

agricultural areas, and a mix of industries including dairy farming, tourism and health service

provision, among others. There are not, however, statistically significant communities in specific

areas that warrant separate ward representation. Compared with rural and regional Victoria as a

whole, the Warrnambool municipality has a lower percentage of residents born overseas and

speaking a language other than English at home.12 While there is a higher proportion of the

people aged 18–34 living in the municipality compared to rural and regional Victoria as a whole,

coupled with strong workforce participation rates and comparatively slightly lower unemployment,

this may not be a vulnerable population segment in need of specific council attention through

separate ward representation, but is a constituency which may be taken into specific account

through municipality-wide program and service delivery.

Based on its small geographic size and relatively homogenous socio-demographic profile, the

VEC considers that the current number of seven councillors is adequate for fair and equitable

representation in the Warrnambool municipality.

Accommodating population growth

The City of Warrnambool’s population is projected to grow at a rate of 1.4 per cent per year,

which is almost equivalent to the growth rate of rural and regional Victoria as a whole (1.3 per

cent).13 The VEC’s research shows the most concentrated growth is projected to occur mostly in

two areas: the western and north-western end of the municipality, including Dennington; and on

the north-eastern edge of the urban area of Warrnambool.14 The overall population growth within

12 Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of population and housing, 2011. 13 Department of Transport, Planning and Local Infrastructure, Victoria in Future 2014, 2014. 14 .id, Population and household forecasts: 2011 to 2036, 2014, forecast.id.com.au/warrnambool/dwellings-development-map?WebID=140


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the municipality is expected to be just over 14,000 people by 2036.15 In comparison with councils

of a similar size in Table 1, Warrnambool has a reasonable voter-to-councillor ratio. While the

Rural City of Mildura has a similar voter-to-councillor ratio and nine councillors, it is also

significantly larger in geographic size than the Warrnambool municipality. Based on current and

projected population growth, as well as a substantial number of public submissions supporting it,

the VEC is satisfied that seven councillors is adequate to achieve fair and equitable

representation in the municipality of Warrnambool.

Electoral structure

Submissions were almost evenly split on whether the Warrnambool municipality should be

governed with an unsubdivided structure or subdivided into wards. The VEC has put forward two

options for consultation. The options include both an unsubdivided and a subdivided model,

reflecting the key themes in public submissions as well as analysis of demographic and spatial

data.

Retaining the current unsubdivided model

The VEC’s preferred option is to retain the current unsubdivided model. The geography, socio-

economic and demographic profiles and growth trends of the municipality make it well-suited to

an unsubdivided structure.

With an area of 121 square kilometres, the City of Warrnambool is one of Victoria’s smaller

municipalities, and the smallest in the category of regional urban municipalities. In some council

areas, the specific geography may lend itself naturally to subdivision, where there are obvious

features that separate communities, such as rivers, mountain ranges and dispersed communities

which form evident boundaries. In the City of Warrnambool, over 80 per cent of the municipality’s

population lives in the urban area of Warrnambool. The small geographic size and concentration

of population in the urban centre makes it reasonable to expect all councillors to serve all

constituents throughout the municipality.

In terms of its demographic profile, as outlined earlier in this report, the City of Warrnambool is a

relatively socially homogenous municipality. This profile lends itself to an unsubdivided model, as

all councillors are able to represent the interests of the community as a whole effectively. It is

critical to recognise the diverse needs of different population segments, and the needs of

different land users. However, as some submitters noted, it is possible for a council to achieve

these objectives through a council-wide strategic approach, and not necessarily through

separate ward representation.

15 .id, Population and household forecasts: 2011 to 2036, 2014, forecast.id.com.au/warrnambool/population-summary?WebID=140


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The forecast population trend in Warrnambool shows a pattern of uneven growth throughout the

municipality. Some growth is expected in the centre of the municipality, particularly on the north-

eastern edge of the Warrnambool urban area. There is also a section of growth expected in the

south-western corner of the municipality around Dennington. An unsubdivided structure would be

beneficial in accommodating this uneven growth pattern.

A subdivided structure – three multi-councillor wards

To reflect the preference for a ward model expressed in many submissions, the VEC has

modelled a subdivided option with three multi-councillor wards. As outlined above, the VEC does

not consider that an increase in the number of councillors is warranted, and has adapted the

themes from submissions to develop a seven-councillor model with two two-councillor wards and

one three-councillor ward.

Several submitters preferred the subdivided model with multi-councillor wards, suggesting it has

several advantages including direct representation of specific geographic areas; direct

accountability of ward representatives; and the benefits of the proportional representation

counting method. By contrast, due to the population distribution, a subdivided model results in

wards which cover a smaller geographic area and therefore split the main urban area. These

wards contain a mix of population segments from the urban and rural parts of the municipality

with fewer representatives than that of the larger unsubdivided structure.

Direct representation of geographic areas - the east, centre and west of the municipality

The benefits of a subdivided structure are that it provides direct and accountable representation

for specific geographic areas. A number of submissions provided significant geographic detail on

potential ward boundaries. The broad theme in these submissions was that the municipality

could be divided into eastern, central and western wards. There was a strong message in these

submissions that the outlying towns of Allansford, Dennington and Bushfield needed more direct

representation.

As noted, however, in a municipality such as the City of Warrnambool, with the majority of

population residing in the urban area and the balance of the population unevenly dispersed

throughout the municipality in smaller communities, it is difficult to identify boundaries which

distinctly encapsulate these areas and also meet the voter-to-councillor equality requirements.

One submission, for example, called for grouping of the northern band of regional towns

stretching from Woodford to Allansford. A totally rural ward accommodating those areas would

not meet the voter number requirements to be a viable option. Under other options put forward

by submitters, there would have been a mix of urban, agricultural land and coastal reserve in

each ward as well as projected growth areas.


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The VEC has built on the concept of three wards as outlined in submissions, and modified the

boundaries to keep more of the urban area of Warrnambool together, while also providing

separate geographic representation for north-western and eastern parts of the municipality. The

model accommodates areas of projected growth by spreading it throughout the three wards.

There is some risk that this could affect the boundaries in the future, but as the growth rate is

relatively low, the voter-to-councillor ratio is expected to comply with the legislative requirements

until the time of the next scheduled representation review. The model allows for separate

representation of the Dennington and the growth area around the Merri River in the North Ward,

as well as the growth expected between Mortlake Road (Hopkins Highway) and Staffords Road

in the East Ward. As described above, dividing the municipality into wards may mean a mix of

different populations and communities of interest are represented by fewer councillors, however,

representation of these distinct areas and populations is still achievable under the subdivided

option with multi-councillor wards.

Directly accountable local councillors

In a subdivided model, councillors are directly accountable for a specific geographical area, and

constituents in these areas can approach their representatives on matters of concern to them

which relate specifically to their local communities. A subdivided model allows councillors to

know their local area well, and with a smaller area to cover, could improve the capacity to meet

with constituents. Some submitters argued that a ward structure makes it easier for voters to

know who their representatives are. The model put forward by the VEC as its alternative option

caters for this desire expressed in submissions calling for more locally-focussed, geographically-

based ward representation.

Issues outside the scope of the review

Many of the issues raised in submissions cannot be resolved through a representation review.

As highlighted earlier in this report, a number of submitters raised concerns regarding the

management of conflicts of interest by members of the current council, for example. The VEC

notes that conflicts of interest occur from time-to-time under all electoral structures and are not a

consequence of a municipality being subdivided or unsubdivided. Deciding to declare a conflict

of interest is a matter for each councillor and the council’s administration in advising and

supporting their elected members.

Likewise, voting blocs on councils can arise under either an unsubdivided or a subdivided

structure, and they may be fairly fixed or vary according to the issue under consideration. Some

submissions suggested combining single- and multi-councillor wards, or making significant

changes to voting methods in order to minimise preference-based alliances, was leading to

voting blocs.


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The VEC considers that both of these issues are related to the operation and performance of

councillors and cannot be simplified to be caused by, or resolved by, changes to the electoral

structure or number of councillors within a municipality. As a result, these issues are outside the

scope of the representation review and cannot be taken into account.


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4.2 Options

The VEC is required by the Act to include a preferred option and may include one or more

alternative options for the electoral structure in the preliminary report. The VEC considers that all

the options outlined below offer fair and equitable representation for voters in the municipality.

Please see Appendix 2 for detailed maps of these options.

Option A (preferred option)

Warrnambool City Council continue to consist of seven councillors elected from an

unsubdivided municipality.

Option B (alternative option)

Warrnambool City Council consist of seven councillors elected from two two-councillor

wards and one three-councillor ward.


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5 Next steps

5.1 Response submissions

Any person or group, including the Council, can make a submission to the VEC in response to

the options contained in this report. Response submissions to the preliminary report should

address the models proposed by the VEC within this report. Response submissions must be

received by the VEC by 5.00 pm on Wednesday 21 October. Late submissions will not be

accepted.

Submissions must include the full name, address and contact telephone number of the submitter.

Submissions without this information cannot be accepted.

Submission methods

Submissions can be made via:

the online submission form at vec.vic.gov.au

email at [email protected]

post to: Victorian Electoral Commission

Level 11, 530 Collins Street

Melbourne VIC 3000

fax to (03) 9629 8632

Public access to submissions

To ensure transparency in the electoral representation review process, all submissions will be

available for public inspection at:

the VEC website at vec.vic.gov.au and

the VEC office at Level 11, 530 Collins Street, Melbourne.

The VEC will remove personal information such as address, phone number, and signature, if

applicable, from all public copies. However, the full name and locality of submitters will be

displayed.

5.2 Public hearing

There is an opportunity for people or organisations who have made a response submission to

speak about their submission at the public hearing. The public hearing is scheduled to be held at

6.00 pm on Tuesday 27 October in the Reception Room, Civic Centre, Warnambool City Council,

25 Liebig Street, Warnambool. If you wish to speak at the public hearing, you must indicate this

on your response submission. If there are no requests to speak at the hearing, it will not be held.


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5.3 Final report

Following the public hearing, the VEC considers all the evidence it has gathered and publishes a

final report for the Minister for Local Government containing a recommended electoral structure.

The report is scheduled to be published on Wednesday 18 November. Any changes resulting

from the final report will apply at the October 2016 general election.

The final report will be available from the VEC by visiting vec.vic.gov.au or calling 131 832 and

also for inspection at the offices of Warrnambool City Council.


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Appendix 1: List of preliminary submissions

Preliminary submissions were received from:

Frank Conheady

Stephen Crichton

Brian Dalton

Andrew S Fawcett

John Harris

Mark Jones

Frank L J McCarthy Snr

Michael Neoh

Proportional Representation Society of Australia (Victoria-Tasmania) Inc

James Purcell, MLC

Duncan Stalker & Vern Robson

Warrnambool City Council


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Appendix 2: Option maps

The following maps are included in this report:

Map Page

Option A (preferred option) 27

Option B (alternative option) 28


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Appendix 3: Public information program

Advertising

In accordance with the Act,16 a public notice of review was placed in the following newspapers:

Herald Sun, Wednesday 15 July

Warrnambool Standard, Saturday 1 August

Media release

A media release was prepared and distributed to local media at the commencement of the review on Wednesday 29 July.

Public information session

A public information session for people interested in the review process was held on Wednesday 5 August in the Reception Room, Civic Centre, Warnambool City Council, 25 Liebig Street, Warnambool.

Helpline and email address

A telephone helpline and dedicated email address were established to assist members of the public with enquiries about the review process.

VEC website

The VEC website delivered up-to-date information to provide transparency and facilitate public participation during the first stages of the review process. An online submission tool was made available and all public submissions were posted on the website.

Guide for Submissions

A Guide for Submissions was developed and distributed to those interested in making submissions. Copies of the Guide were available on the VEC website, in hardcopy on request and provided to Council.

Council website and newsletter

Information about the review was provided to Council for publication in council media, e.g. website and newsletter.

16 Section 219F(4) of the Local Government Act 1989.

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Victorian Electoral Commission

Level 11, 530 Collins Street

Melbourne VIC 3000

131 832

[email protected]

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