Preliminary Proposition of a General Theory of Property Investment Decision Making European Real...
-
Upload
maximilian-lloyd -
Category
Documents
-
view
218 -
download
0
Transcript of Preliminary Proposition of a General Theory of Property Investment Decision Making European Real...
Preliminary Proposition of aGeneral Theory of Property Investment
Decision Making
European Real Estate Society Conference
Vienna, Austria, July 2013
Professor David Parker
Slide 2
Overview
• Property Investment Decision Making:– Australian REITs– Australian Unlisted Wholesale Funds
• Literature Review• Hypothesis• Testing• Findings• Conclusions and Areas for Further Research
Slide 3
Overview
• Property Investment Decision Making:– Australian REITs– Australian Unlisted Wholesale Funds
• Literature Review• Hypothesis• Testing• Findings• Conclusions and Areas for Further Research
Slide 4
Overview
“Extraordinary financial losses and market disruption in the late 1980s and early 1990s are eloquent, if damning, testimony to the proposition that the quality of many real estate decisions is less than distinguished.”
Roulac (1994)
Slide 5
Literature Review
• Books, journals, conference papers
• REIT or unlisted wholesale fund specific
• Normative model
• Rational analysis
Slide 6
Literature Review
• Envisioning Stage
• Planning Stage
• Dealing Stage
• Executing Stage
Slide 7
Literature Review
• Envisioning Stage:– Vision– Style– Goals– Strategic Plan– Objectives
Slide 8
Literature Review
• Planning Stage:– Property Portfolio Strategy– Strategic Asset Allocation– Tactical Asset Allocation– Stock Selection– Asset Identification
Slide 9
Literature Review
• Dealing Stage:– Preliminary Negotiation– Preliminary Analysis– Structuring– Advanced Financial Analysis– Portfolio Impact Assessment
Slide 10
Literature Review
• Executing Stage:– Governance Decision– Transaction Closure/Documentation– Due Diligence/Independent Appraisal– Settlement– Post Audit
Slide 11
Overview
• Property Investment Decision Making:– Australian REITs– Australian Unlisted Wholesale Funds
• Literature Review• Hypothesis• Testing• Findings• Conclusions and Areas for Further Research
Slide 12
Hypothesis
Stage Step Step Step Step Step
Envisioning Vision
Style Goals Strategic Plan Objectives
Planning Property Portfolio Strategy
Strategic Asset Allocation
Tactical Asset Allocation
Stock Selection Asset Identification
Dealing Preliminary Negotiation
Preliminary Analysis
Structuring Advanced Financial Analysis
Portfolio Impact Assessment
Executing Governance Decision
Transaction Closure / Documentation
Due Diligence / Independent Appraisal
Settlement Post Audit
Slide 13
Overview
• Property Investment Decision Making:– Australian REITs– Australian Unlisted Wholesale Funds
• Literature Review• Hypothesis• Testing• Findings• Conclusions and Areas for Further Research
Slide 14
Testing
• Semi structured interviews• Senior executives• 11 ASX200 REITs• 9 unlisted property fund managers• Analysis - 0/1 matching
Slide 15
Overview
• Property Investment Decision Making:– Australian REITs– Australian Unlisted Wholesale Funds
• Literature Review• Hypothesis• Testing• Findings• Conclusions and Areas for Further Research
Slide 16
Findings - REITs
Slide 17
Findings - Unlisted
Slide 18
Findings - Combination
Slide 19
Overview
• Property Investment Decision Making:– Australian REITs– Australian Unlisted Wholesale Funds
• Literature Review• Hypothesis• Testing• Findings• Conclusions and Areas for Further Research
Slide 20
Conclusions
• Findings supportive of hypothesis
• Commonality of responses
• Sufficient to preliminarily posit a general theory of property investment decision making?
Slide 21
Areas For Further Research
• Small public and private property funds?
• Individual investors?
• Outside Australia?
• “Good” property investment decisions?
Preliminary Proposition of aGeneral Theory of Property Investment
Decision Making
European Real Estate Society Conference
Vienna, Austria, July 2013
Professor David Parker