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Predictive Validity of the YLS/CMI as Administered in Nebraska Probation

October 4, 2017

University of Nebraska Law Psychology Program

Submitted By

Richard L. Wiener, PhD, MLS.

Alisha Caldwell Jimenez, J.D.

Taylor Petty, B.S.

Julie Wertheimer, B.S.

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Table of Contents Figures and Table ………………………………………………………………………………...4

Introduction ……………………………………………………………………………………... 5

Introduction to the YLS/CMI.………………………………………………………………….... 5

Statement of the Problem ……………………………………………………………………….. 8

Reliability ………………………………………………………………………………….... 9

Predictive Validity………………………………………………………………………….... 9

Statistical Significance and Effect Sizes …………………………………………………….11

Main Effects and Interactions………………………………………………………………..12

Logistic Regression…………………………………………………………………………..12

Summary of the YLS/CMI Studies in the Literature…………...……………………………13

Analysis Methods………………………………………………………………………………...15

Description of the Sample…………………………………………………………...……….15

Results……………………………………………………………………………………………20

Results Section Overview………………………………………………………………………..20

Results Section: YLS/CMI Predictive Validity………………………………………………….22

YLS/CMI Total Scores versus YLS/CMI Risk Levels……………….......………………….22

Analysis of Success/Failure………………………………………………………………….24

Pure Success………………………………………………………………………………….25

Partial Success……………………………………………………………………………….30

Semi-Success and Limited Success………………………………………………………….34

Results Section: Moderation of YLS/CMI – Predictive Validity………………………………..38

The Need to Examine Moderation…………………………………………………………...38

Youth Gender………………………………………………………………………………...39

Youth Race and Ethnicity…………………………………………………………………....43

Results Section: YLS/CMI Domain Status – Predictive Validity……………………………….47

Results Section: Establishing Cutoffs with ROC Analysis……………………………………...50

Executive Summary and Conclusions…………………………………………………………...59

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References………………………………………………………………………………………..65

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Figures and Tables

Figure 1 ....................................................................................................................................... 16 Figure 2 ....................................................................................................................................... 16 Figure 3 ....................................................................................................................................... 17 Figure 4 ....................................................................................................................................... 18 Figure 5 ....................................................................................................................................... 19 Figure 6 ....................................................................................................................................... 23 Figure 7 ....................................................................................................................................... 24 Figure 8 ....................................................................................................................................... 26 Figure 9 ....................................................................................................................................... 30 Figure 10 ....................................................................................................................................... 31 Figure 11 ....................................................................................................................................... 34 Figure 12 ....................................................................................................................................... 35 Figure 13 ....................................................................................................................................... 38 Figure 14 ....................................................................................................................................... 42 Figure 15 ....................................................................................................................................... 42 Figure 16 ....................................................................................................................................... 46 Figure 17 ....................................................................................................................................... 46 Figure 18 ....................................................................................................................................... 47 Figure 19 ....................................................................................................................................... 53 Figure 20 ....................................................................................................................................... 55 Figure 21 ....................................................................................................................................... 59

Table 1 ......................................................................................................................................... 20 Table 2 ......................................................................................................................................... 28 Table 3 ......................................................................................................................................... 29 Table 4 ......................................................................................................................................... 32 Table 5 ......................................................................................................................................... 33 Table 6 ......................................................................................................................................... 36 Table 7 ......................................................................................................................................... 37 Table 8 ......................................................................................................................................... 40 Table 9 ......................................................................................................................................... 41 Table 10 ......................................................................................................................................... 44 Table 11 ......................................................................................................................................... 45 Table 12 ......................................................................................................................................... 48 Table 13 ......................................................................................................................................... 49 Table 14 ......................................................................................................................................... 54 Table 15 ......................................................................................................................................... 55 Table 16 ......................................................................................................................................... 56 Table 17 ......................................................................................................................................... 56 Table 18 ......................................................................................................................................... 58

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Introduction

This report details the work that the University of Nebraska/Law Psychology Program

(UNLLP) completed to date to analyze the validity of the Youth Level of Service/Case

Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) as Nebraska Probation uses it to assess risk levels of youth