Predictive Analytics and the Value of Trust, Google

Google Confidential and Proprietary 11

Predictive Analyticsand the Value of Trust

Gregory A. Green, Ph.D.

Data Scientist

[email protected]


Farmville

30M people using it every day;

an est. 800K virtual tractors sold

daily at $3.33 each

ebay

Selling $6B via mobile

in 2010

YouTube views

Lady Gaga 1.5B video views

iPhone App store

5B apps downloaded

Red Cross

20% ($23M) of donations for

Haiti in first week made via text

message

Amazon

180 Kindle books sold for every

100 hardcovers

Consumer Transformation: Last Year!


GamesMore social, more mobile,

more real-time

CommerceShowrooming, crowdsourci

ng

VideoAnother year, more fever…

MobilePayments, Social, Local

Charitable GivingSpeed, Reach, Scale, Lowe

r Cost

TabletDouble growth anyone?

Second screen

Consumer Transformation: 2012


A Few Statistics

100B Searches Monthly

Over 30 Trillion URLs – vs. 1T in 2008

Google Power Searching Course 155,000 signups. (07/10/12)

16% of searches every day are new

Over 400 million Google users have upgraded to Google+ & 150M are 30 day actives, 50% sign in daily to Google

Daily active Google+ users spend 12 min/day on the stream, up from 9 minutes just 3 months ago

800M people are watching 4B hours a month on YouTube

Over 72 hrs of video uploaded every minute and doubling year-over-year

More video uploaded to YouTube in a day than all 3 major US networks broadcast in the last 3 years

Over 500 million Android-powered devices activated

More than 1.3 million Android devices are activated each day

More than 25 billion apps have been downloaded from Google Play


Insight Tools at Google

Brand Affiliations

Competitor Insights

Annual “What theWorld Searched” Guide

Social Chatter

Peer-to-Peer Learning

Search Trends

Competitor Comparisons

Owned Media Learning 2nd Screen Trending

Engagement Insights

Web Influence InConsumer Path To Purchase

Digital Aggregator/Statistics for a Brand

Custom Consumer Research

Collection ofCustom Mobile Insights


Digital Prediction of Consumer Intentions

Perception Tracker

Social Trends

Intentions and Actions

Fads/Fashions

Culture


Fragmenting Media Marketplace

Today1950 1980

Cable TV

Personal Computer

Video Games

DVR

Satellite TV

3D TV

Online Radio

Online TV

Blogs

Podcasts

Blogs

Portals

Ad Networks

MMORP Games

Instant Messengers

Social Networks

Mobile Gaming

Mobile Video

Mobile Computers

Email

Search

eBooks

Digital Billboards

Newspapers

Broadcast TV

Magazines

Broadcast Radio

Billboards

Movies

Media Timeline

Newspapers

Broadcast TV

Magazines

Broadcast Radio

Billboards

Movies

Cable TV

Personal Computer

Video Games

Newspapers

Broadcast TV

Magazines

Broadcast Radio

Billboards

Movies

The challenge with the

exponential data exhaust.


Predictive Analytics: Beyond 2012

101101010001

01001010101

010110101010

10110

101101010001

01001010101

010110101010

10110

101101010001

01001010101

010110101010

10110

Data Exhaust

Scale

& Tools

Trust

Time

Decision makers

Application

Data

Reporting

Analytics

Predictive


Value of Trust in Data Science

Predictive benchmark

Precision forecasting

Comparative benchmark

Performance evaluation

Transparency - fluid, easy, served

Information access - technically transparent

to value creation

to action

Insights

Trust

Pace Fragmentation Engagement Innovations Globality


Video Mobile Search Display

Awareness Consideration Evaluation Purchase Advocacy

Consumer

Fueled by overwhelming options and content


Operational

Efficiencies

Marketing

Performance

Better

Decisions

Developing Trusted Platforms


Eliminating Loss Drives Performance

Integration yields… more effective campaigns

Each data transfer results in lost reach

AdExchange

100%

DSP

100%

Ad Serving(Buy Side)

100%

100%100%


Integration… better decisions

$

$

Cross-channel campaign management

3

2 Single attribution model

1 More holistic view

of your audience

Streamlined operations and unified reporting gives you more time and insight to make better decisions


Stimulus Zero Moment

of Truth

First Moment

of Truth (Shelf)

Second Moment

of Truth (Experience)

Which influence other moments

Consumer Trust Building

The consumer journey in today’s digital world has radically changed


All Moments Impact The Purchase Decision

Explosion of Uses and Reliance

Among over 5,000 consumers surveyed:

Source: Google, Zero Moment of Truth, When you were considering purchasing [PRODUCT], what sources of information did you seek out to help with your decision? Base: 5,003

influenced bystimulus

76%

influenced byZMOT

84%

influenced byFMOT

77%

influenced bySMOT

59%


Trust Builders in Data and Analytics Science

Black Box

Fragmentation

Isolation

Independent Variables

Swamped with Disparate Data

Overwhelmed with Metrics

Rearview Analytics

What Happened??

Clear Box, Transparency

Integration

Connectedness

Interdependence

Exploration

Highlights, Alerts, Focused

Trusted Predictive

Action to Accelerate Growth

Building trust is a critical to shift budgets to digital channels


And One More Thing Changed… Who Knew?

Source: HBR


Google Trends: Predictive Analytics


Google Trends: Statistician


Google Trends: Data Scientist


Google Trends: Justin Bieber Baby


Google Trends: Gangham Style


Oh yeah… it’s all about content

• YOUTUBE VIDEO

• Hint: You are about to see the first video that could hit 1 billion views

• Any guesses?

• Any predictions on how many we’ll see next year?

• Been to one of your kid’s proms lately?


Predictive Analytics and The Latest Content

“A stream of

information has been

making it's way over.

I've realized that

there's more to this

world than we can

truly see. I have

many questions, but

one keeps coming

up: What is the

Niantic Project?”

http://www.google.com/+NianticProjectFacebook: http://www.Faceb

ook.com/NianticProjectTwitter: http://www.twitter.com/NianticProjec

t

http://www.google.com/+NianticProject




http://www.facebook.com/NianticProject





http://www.twitter.com/NianticProject





“Niantic is trying to solve some of the problems created by smartphones, namely, that

they divide us, divert us from reality, and make us inattentive. A powerful mobile

computer, Hanke says, should connect us to the real world and all the context that’s

there. Google’s own Project Glass is already attempting to do so-called augmented

reality, in which camera, location and processing power combine to annotate the world

around us with extra data and images.

It’s all about “seeing with new eyes,” says Hanke. Niantic Labs, after all, takes its name

from a 120-foot sailing ship that arrived in San Francisco 160 years ago for the Gold

Rush. But the Niantic never returned home. It was one of hundreds of ships

abandoned–rigging, furnishings and all–by its crew for the gold fields and sunk into the

earth as foundation for a waterfront hotel. A giant sailing ship buried beneath the

inattentive thrum of high-tech SF–it’s an all-too-perfect metaphor for a team of people

using tech to unearth hidden context.

In September Niantic came out with its first product, a free Android app called Field

Trip. It immediately won pretty good reviews. Field Trip pulls up interesting facts and

context about the sights and places around you from a myriad of editorial sources

including Zagat, Architizer, Eater/Curbd, Atlas Obscura, Arcadia Publishing’s thousands

of hyperlocal guides, Vayable and Daily Secret. It runs continuously in the

background, pushing info cards even in front of a phone’s lock screen, but it’s

supposedly smart about how it uses a phone’s battery so it doesn’t drain the device.”

Source: Forbes, 11/8/2012 http://www.forbes.com/sites/bruceupbin/2012/11/08/the-niantic-project-what-is-google-up-to/

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Transcript of Predictive Analytics and the Value of Trust, Google