Predictions – good, bad, ugly Roadblocks en route to 2025

David Wood, @dw2

Principal, Delta Wisdom Chair, London Futurists

#Anticipating2025

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http://valleywag.gawker.com/the-biggest-bullshit-job-titles-in-tech-1521536472

Fashion Evangelist at Tumblr

Digital Prophet at AOL

Entrepreneur-in-Residence at The Atlantic

Hacker-in-Residence at LinkedIn

Chief Curator at eBay

Chief Happiness Officer at Delivering Happiness

Anyone who self-describes as a

Futurist – which is barely even a word,

let alone a job.

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Opportunities

Threats

The set of

possible futures

Prediction…

… is hard

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Rate of pace of change

increasing

Prediction…

… getting harder

Complex convergence

of technologies

and risks

Opportunities

Threats

So we need to get better at it!

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Four overlapping trajectories

2014

2025 Humanity+

Humanity 1.0

Transhumanism

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Predicting collaboration

“In Europe the epoch of conquest is over… It is as certain as anything in politics that the frontiers of our national states are finally drawn. My own belief is that there will be no more war among the six powers”

War between the great powers has become an economic impossibility because of “the delicate interdependence of

international finance” 1910: The Great Illusion, Norman Angell, British journalist

Spring 1914: Henry Noel Brailsford, British member of the international commission reporting on the Balkan Wars

http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/books/reviews/the-ascent-of-money-by-niall-ferguson-980013.html

http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/1933/angell-bio.html

http://www.marxists.org/history/archive/brailsford/index.htm

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Predictions fail because of… • Connections that no-one fully understands

– Innovations that no-one fully understands

• Unfounded over-confidence – Underestimates of weaknesses in existing human psychology – Underestimates of weaknesses in existing social institutions

• Systems that are pumped up & take on a life of their own – Via positive feedback cycles (“reflexivity”)

Positive

feedback

cycle

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Predicting economic well-being “It is hard for us, and without being flippant, to even see a scenario

within any kind of realm of reason that would see us losing $1 in any of those [credit default swaps] transactions”

Joe Cassano, AIG Chief Financial Officer, Wall Street investor conference call, August 2007

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=7210007

“Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders’ equity

(myself especially) are in a state of shocked disbelief” – Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve chairman, Oct 2008

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/24/economics-creditcrunch-federal-reserve-greenspan

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First Nokia “mobile phone” Nokia Mobira Senator (1982) Weighed about 21 pounds Designed for use in or near cars

1980s McKinsey forecast for AT&T 0.9 million mobile US subscribers by 2000

Actual figure: 109 million Worldwide 1 billion by 2002, 2B by 2005, 7B by 2012...

Hard to predict the effects of sustained tech growth! Devices increasingly numerous, lighter, and more useful

www.xtimeline.com/evt/view.aspx?id=25921

www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/22/AR2008022202283_2.html

Predicting technology improvement

Positive

feedback

cycle

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Page 10 Computations per kWh, 1950-2010 Improvement in energy efficiency of computers

Source: Jonathan Koomey,

Consulting Professor, Stanford Technology Review,

9 Apr 2012

10^3 to 10^15 40 doublings over 60 years

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/427444/the-computing-trend-that-will-change-everything/

18 months average doubling

In line with “Moore’s Law”

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Page 11 www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/events/moores_law_40th/

(Gordon) Moore’s Law: 1965

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Predicting the end of Moore’s Law

2014

“Moore’s Law is coming to an end—in the next decade it will pretty much come to an end so we have 15 years or so… We still have another 15 years or so to enjoy”

Henry Samueli, CTO Broadcom, May 2013

http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1263256

Mike Mayberry, VP Technology and Manufacturing, Intel

“If you’re only using the same technology, then in principle you run into limits. The truth is we've been modifying the

technology every five or seven years for 40 years, and there's no end in sight for being able to do that”

http://news.cnet.com/8301-11386_3-57526581-76/moores-law-the-rule-that-really-matters-in-tech/

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Improvement in wireless networks www.arraycomm.com/technology/coopers-law

Cooper’s Law: The amount of information that can be transmitted over useful radio spectrum has

roughly doubled every 30 months since 1895

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1373272/ The-day-Martin-Cooper-took-mobile-phone-public-leaving-New-Yorkers-bemused-bewildered.html

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The 3 drivers for exponential improvement

1. Physical possibility – “There’s plenty of room at the bottom”

2. Ongoing engineering ingenuity & investment – Intel, ARM, Qualcomm, Nvidia, Broadcom,

Ericsson, Huawei, NTT DoCoMo, governments…

– (Healthy competition helps!)

3. Ongoing benefits to end users (to fund investment) – Users willing to keep paying for new features / quality

Positive

feedback

cycle

http://www.slideshare.net/GenomeInABottle/george-church

http://www.geneticsandsociety.org/article.php?id=4328

Professor George Church

Harvard

http://www.slideshare.net/GenomeInABottle/george-church

http://www.geneticsandsociety.org/article.php?id=4328

Professor George Church

Harvard

Positive

feedback

cycle

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The Carlson curves (Rob Carlson) Rob Carlson, June 2011: www.synthesis.cc

Cost per Base of DNA Sequencing

(Reading) & Synthesis

(Writing)

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The Carlson curves (Rob Carlson) Rob Carlson, Feb 2014: www.synthesis.cc

Price per Base of DNA Sequencing

(Reading) & Synthesis

(Writing)

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Predicting the impact of technology

“Books will soon be obsolete in schools”

“It is possible to teach every branch of human knowledge with the motion picture”

“Our school system will be completely changed inside of ten years”

July 1913, The New York Dramatic Mirror Thomas Alva Edison

http://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/02/15/books-obsolete/ http://edison.rutgers.edu/taephren.htm

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When technology achieves impact 1. Underlying core technology has sufficient performance

E.g. semiconductor CPU power, hi-res graphics screens, GPS sensors…

2. Applications exist to deliver user value from this technology

Real benefits; Acceptable usability; Acceptable price: Cross the chasm

3. Network infrastructure & business environment is supportive

E.g. battery charging stations, application stores: “the value chain”

4. Legal framework is supportive – e.g. government legislation, subsidies

5. Prevailing philosophies are supportive – user expectations

E.g. “Be the best you can be” vs. “Decay is natural”, “Don’t play God”

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Overcoming the roadblocks ahead

=> Accelerate the technologies of abundance

Clear, reliable info about radical future scenarios

Highlight the problems most needing solutions

Engage the whole brain – art as well as science

Personable spokespeople (“people like me”)

Encourage a collaborative “Humanity+” value set

Demonstrate incremental steps on an roadmap