Predictions - Football League 120213

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  • 7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213

    1/16

    Brighton Blackburn

    Experimental361.com

    Goals scored vs. conceded from open play down the right

    41% 37%

    Brighton are the Championships heaviest users

    of the right flank, which pits them nicely against

    the weaker left side of Blackburns defence

    This is a tough one to call between two sides in similar form battling for supremacy on the

    cusp of the play-offs. While Brighton look marginally more likely to prevail, a draw seems the

    most probable result given the number these two sides have already served up this season.

    Expected score: 1-1

    9.4 12.3

    With Brighton among the best sides in the

    division at restricting chances and their visitors

    among the worst, we could see a lot of traffic

    towards the away goalmouth

    Shots faced per game

    Goals per match scored vs. conceded from outside the area

    0.33 0.13The hosts excel at finding the net from range, but

    that particular skill might not be of much use to

    them against Blackburns alert rearguard

  • 7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213

    2/16

    Hull Derby

    Experimental361.com

    Goals scored vs. conceded per game from headers

    0.33 0.40

    Hull offer one of the divisions greater aerial

    threats and they should definitely be persisting

    with high balls given their visitors susceptibility

    I wrote Derbys prospects off in a similar match-up at the weekend but they took their few

    chances well to earn a point. However Hull look better equipped to keep them at bay.

    Expected score: 2-0

    0.40 0.47

    The Tigers are the Championships most

    successful users of the right flank and find

    themselves up against the defence with the

    divisions weakest left side

    Goals scored vs. conceded per game from open play down the right

    Shots taken per game (home vs. away)

    14.9 7.7

    This match looks likely to be a Hull-dominated

    affair no Championship side averages more

    shots per match at home and Derby muster very

    few of their own away

  • 7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213

    3/16

    Middlesbrough Leeds

    Experimental361.com

    Goals conceded vs. scored from open play down the left

    16% 40%

    The visitors have used the left wing to great effect

    this season but the right side ofBoros defence

    has been relatively tight, which could well blunt

    their goal threat

    Its been a horrible start to the year for Middlesbrough, who come into this match off the back

    of 5 consecutive defeats, and while theyll have easier matches than this I still expect them to

    get back to winning ways.

    Expected score: 2-1

    12.0 12.2

    Leeds seem content with letting their opponents

    do more of the attacking, and Middlesbrough look

    happy to oblige

    Shots taken vs. faced per game

    Goals scored vs. conceded per game from outside the box

    0.37 0.30Boro wont get many better chances to exploit

    their long range accuracy than this, with Leeds

    looking vulnerable from distance

  • 7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213

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    Brentford Stevenage

    Experimental361.com

    Goals conceded vs. scored from open play down the right

    35% 45%

    While Brentford dont present any glaring

    weaknesses for Stevenage to exploit, the visitors

    best chance may be to probe down the right

    where theyve been relatively successful

    With these two teams in stuttering form this is a tough one to call, but Brentford look set to

    have more opportunities to take the points here.

    Expected score: 2-1

    12.6 11.9

    In addition to soaking up a lot of shots,

    Stevenage dont take very many either, meaning

    that this match will probably comprise mostly

    home traffic

    Shots taken vs. faced per match

    Goals scored vs. conceded in the first & last 15 mins of matches

    49% 49%Half of Brentfords goals come either early or late,

    which is coincidentally when Stevenage concede

    roughly half of theirs

  • 7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213

    5/16

    Bury Sheff Utd

    Experimental361.com

    Goals conceded vs. scored from open play down the right

    45% 35%

    The Blades will carry the greater goal threat down

    their right flank, with their hosts attack-minded left

    side proving all too vulnerable to opponents

    incursions

    Despite a frustrating start to the year, the visitors are unbeaten in 5 away matches. Bury look

    capable of giving them a good game, but I suspect not enough of one to outscore them over

    90 minutes.

    Expected score: 1-1

    0.40 0.37

    While both these sides are equally dangerous in

    the air going forward, the visitors are noticeably

    more vulnerable at the back

    Headed goals scored vs. conceded per game

    Goals scored vs. conceded from open play down the left

    50% 33%Bury have depended heavily on their left flank for

    goals this season and this is a strategy which

    could pay off in this instance

  • 7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213

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    Crewe Bournemouth

    Experimental361.com

    Goals scored vs. conceded in the 15 mins before half time

    27% 21%Crewe often strike late in the first half, which is

    where Bournemouth have a tendency to concede

    While Bournemouth should prove too strong for Crewe, both sides look capable of scoring

    here and it should be a close match.

    Expected score: 1-2

    12.2 13.1

    Despite being the away side, the Cherries look

    the more likely to dominate proceedings, testing

    Crewes strong defensive record at home

    Shots faced vs. taken per match

    Goals scored vs. conceded from open play through the centre

    58% 27%Both these sides create the majority of their goals

    in the middle of the pitch, but the visitors police

    the centre much more effectively

  • 7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213

    7/16

    Doncaster MK Dons

    Experimental361.com

    Points won from winning vs. losing positions

    96% 11%

    If Doncaster score first then precedent suggests

    that MK Dons wont be able to recover no

    League 1 side is better at closing wins out than

    Rovers while their visitors have struggled to

    recover from going behind

    Neither of these sides are in great form and this is a tougher match than either would want

    during such a sequence, but Doncasters blip looks to be much less serious and they should

    be capable of a win.

    Expected score: 2-1

    7.6 11.4

    Doncaster dont allow many shots at their goal on

    their own turf, but MK Dons tend to take the

    game to their opponents irrespective of venue, so

    there could be a heated battle in midfield

    Shots faced (home) vs. taken (away) per match

    Goals scored vs. conceded from open play down the left

    30% 35%

    Both sides tend to favour the centre when

    attacking but Doncaster shouldnt overlook the left

    wing, which aligns nicely with a weak point in their

    visitors defence

  • 7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213

    8/16

    Hartlepool Portsmouth

    Experimental361.com

    Goals conceded vs. scored from open play through the centre

    37% 59%

    The visitors tendency to channel their attacks

    through the middle could also hinder them here,

    with Hartlepool relatively solid in central positions

    Portsmouth arguably wont have a better chance to end their 18 match winless run than

    against the only side currently still beneath them in the table. The problem is that their hosts

    are undergoing a revival and have only lost 1 in 5, so this could be the day they swap places.

    Expected score: 1-0

    13.4 5.4

    The divisions most profligate home attack meets

    its most porous away defence will either be

    able to raise their game?

    Shots per goal scored (home) vs. conceded (away)

    Goals conceded vs. scored from set pieces

    17% 42%Pompey have undeniably relied on set pieces for

    goals this season but this is no guarantee of

    success here

  • 7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213

    9/16

    Scunthorpe Carlisle

    Experimental361.com

    Shots per goal scored vs. conceded

    10.5 6.2

    The home sides wasteful attack is up against one

    of the divisions more porous defences itll be

    interesting, but perhaps not pretty, to see which

    gains the advantage

    This doesnt appear to have the hallmarks of a classic encounter, but both sides are enjoying

    their best run of form for a while and have a clear means of breaching the others defence. I

    expect a score draw to be the most likely outcome.

    Expected score: 1-1

    0.42 0.40

    The Iron have been heavily dependent on their

    right wing for goals this season and theyd be

    foolish not to move the ball in that direction given

    their visitors shaky left side

    Goals scored vs. conceded per match from open play down the right

    Goals conceded vs. scored per match from set pieces

    0.58 0.43

    Dead ball situations havent favoured Scunthorpe

    at either end this season, but Carlisle thrive on

    them to the extent that their hosts should be very

    nervous

  • 7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213

    10/16

    Yeovil Preston

    Experimental361.com

    Shots faced per game (home vs. away)

    7.7 8.6

    The precedent is for these sides both to restrict

    the others chances, w