Predicting HAB Strength (Western Basin) Pete Richards NCWQR-HU.
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Transcript of Predicting HAB Strength (Western Basin) Pete Richards NCWQR-HU.
![Page 1: Predicting HAB Strength (Western Basin) Pete Richards NCWQR-HU.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110206/56649ce45503460f949b11b6/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Predicting HAB Strength(Western Basin)
Pete RichardsNCWQR-HU
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Western Basin Algae Problems
Tom Bridgeman, U. Toledo
Cladophora and noxious “blue-green algae” are back with a vengeance!
City of Toledo - $3000/day to treat drinking water for microcystin.
Microcystin 1000 ppb in Western Basin, 2000 ppb in Grand Lake St. Marys. WHO recommendations 1 ppb for drinking water (20 ppb for swimming)
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Microcystis in Lake ErieThe Microcystis-Anabaena bloom of 2009 was
the largest in recent years in our sampling region
2011
…until 2011
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Predicting: Concept• P loading drives algal growth• HABs occur in late summer• Perhaps P loads in some seasons
are more important than loads in others.
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• Relate “cyanobacteria index” (CI) to discharge and P loading
• CI best predicted by March-June discharge
• March-June TP and DRP also predictive
• Initial work done late in 2011 – can we predict 2012?
NOAA work
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2011 and 2012 are the extremes - 2012 is 20% of 2011!
Spring Discharge (March-June)
NOAA Ecofore/Maumee Loads.xls
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2011 and 2012 are extreme - 2012 is 17% of 2011!
Spring TP Load
NOAA Ecofore/Maumee Loads.xls
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2011 and 2012 are extreme - 2012 is 15% of 2011!
Spring DRP Load
NOAA Ecofore/Maumee Loads.xls
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2012 Forecast (mild bloom) and Observed Bloom
2012Forecast
Measured
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08/30/2012 (DOY=243)
09/03/2011 (DOY=246)
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Learnings• 2012 does not mean we’ve solved
the problem!• It does show that the lake is
responsive to P loadings in a short timeframe.
• It shows that internal resuspension is not a major factor
• It shows that the Detroit River inputs are not a major factor.
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What about 2013?• Spring totals just completed at end
of June• Predictions given July 2 at a
webinar at OSU’s Stone Lab
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March-June Maumee Discharge
2.77
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March-June Maumee Total P
1,099
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March-June Maumee DRP
238
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2013 Forecast: Significant bloom, similar to 2003, much milder than 2011
2013
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2013 prediction for western Lake Eriesimilar in intensity to 2003,
<1/5 of 2011
low medium high
concentration
2013 may resemble 20032011 for comparison
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NOAA Lake Erie Harmful Algal Bloom Bulletin, 2013, 5th year
Sign up to receive the weekly bulletinSearch for NOAA Lake Erie Bloom
Bulletin
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October 7, 2011