Predicting effects on Water Productivity and the Water Balance
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Transcript of Predicting effects on Water Productivity and the Water Balance
PREDICTING EFFECTS ON
WATER PRODUCTIVITY
AND THE WATER
BALANCE
DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS AND MODELS FOR:
PREDICTING FUTURE WATER PRODUCTIVITY
WLI Achievements• Good experiences using crop-
water-productivity models • Good progress on use of GIS for
mapping alternative cropping patterns and scenarios
• Identification of a simple reporting method
• Socio-economists on board and ready
• Strong support network at USAID and USDA ARS
6 DATA POINTS FOR USAID FTF 2010 2015 2020a Total Production by direct beneficiaries
during reporting period (TP)Ton/yr
b Total Value of Sales (USD) by direct beneficiaries during reporting period (VS)
US$/yr
c Total Quantity (volume) of Sales by direct beneficiaries during reporting period (QS)
Ton/yr
d Total Recurrent Cash Input Costs of direct beneficiaries during reporting period (IC)
Weight/yr
e Total Units of Production (UP) ha =/<Site area? =/<Site area?
1 Average price (VS/QS)
2 Gross revenue (TPxVS/QS)
3 Net revenue (TPxVS/QS) - IC
Gross margin/ha (3/UP)
4 Water use m3/ha Water m3/yr
Water productivity (GM/m3)
Gross margin per ha, per animal, per cage = [(TP x VS/QS) – IC ] / UP
PREDICTING FUTURE WATER PRODUCTIVITY:Remaining Challenges• Scale challenge• Diversity of land and water
conditions and qualities• Diversity of cropping patterns• Integrating crops and
livestock• Other uses of water• Definition and measurement
of water consumption
• (Economic aspects, prices, future uncertainties)
Water ProductivityGross marginWater consumed m3
ASSESSMENTS OF WATER BALANCE
WLI Achievements• Characterization of benchmark
sites• Identification of relevant policies • Sub-national assessments scarce
and valuable• Clear role for WLI teams in
improvement of relevant policies • Widely recognized need• Use of relevant models incl. WEAP
and SWAT• Strong support network in US
Universities
ASSESSMENTS OF WATER BALANCE
Remaining Challenges• Identification of system boundaries • Scale challenges• Temporal challenges for prediction
of future water availability• Uncertainty, variability• Data access (real and perceived)• Some water sources less well
understood –i.e. groundwater, reusable wastewater
• Inter-sectoral cooperation• Integration of WLI data elements
with impr. mgtCropping PatternHa cereals: Ha horticulture: N/ha livestock:
Annual Water Use
m3/yr
Gross Margin/m3
$/m3/yr
Cropping PatternHa cereals: Ha horticulture: N/ha livestock:
Annual Water Use
m3/yr
Gross Margin/m3
$/m3/yr
Cropping PatternHa cereals: Ha horticulture: N/ha livestock:
Annual Water
Use m3/yr
Gross Margin/m3
$/m3/yr
Pres
ent
w.out impr. mgt
Water BalancereusegroundwaterSurface inflowsrainfed
19902000
20102020
20302040
20500
40
80
19902000
20102020
20302040
20500
40
80
Futu
re M
anag
emen
t Str
ateg
ies
Benchmark Site
THANK YOUContact: [email protected]