Pre-Salt Oil: Developing The Frontier - …thaiembassybrazil.com/pdf/Pre-Salt.pdf · 1 Pre-Salt...

19
1 Pre-Salt Oil: Developing The Frontier José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo CEO November, 16th 2011 JP Morgan

Transcript of Pre-Salt Oil: Developing The Frontier - …thaiembassybrazil.com/pdf/Pre-Salt.pdf · 1 Pre-Salt...

1

Pre-Salt Oil: Developing The Frontier

José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo CEO

November, 16th 2011 JP Morgan

2

This presentation may contain forward-looking statements. Such statements reflect only the expectations of the Company's management regarding the future conditions of the economy, the industry, the performance and financial results of the Company, among other factors. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar expressions, are used to identify such statements. These predictions evidently involve risks and uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the Company. Consequently, these statements do not represent assurance of future results of the Company. Therefore, the Company's future results of operations may differ from current expectations, and readers must not base their expectations solely on the information presented herein. The Company is not obliged to update the presentation and forward-looking statements in light of new information or future developments. Amounts informed for the year 2011 and upcoming years are either estimates or targets.

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally viable under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as discoveries, that the SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC.

Cautionary statement for U.S. investors:

DISCLAIMER

3

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63

Oil

Pro

du

ctio

n

Pre-Salt GoM (USA) North Sea Campos Basin

Discovery: SS032 (1947) First oil: SS032 (1947)

Discovery: Q/13ª (1963) First Oil: Dan (1972)

Discovery: Garoupa (1974) First oil: Enchova (1977)

Discovery: Parati (2006) First oil: Tupi (2009)

Years after Discovery

PRE-SALT’S SHORT LAG BETWEEN DISCOVERY AND FIRST-OIL, AND FAST PROJECTED RAMP-UP

4

Ne

w R

igs

FPSO

s/

Def

init

ive

Syst

ems

Lula Pilot (AR)

FPSO

s/EW

Ts

SANTOS PRE-SALT MASTER PLAN’S HIGHLIGHTS FROM 2006 TO 2010 ...

2006 2008 2009 2010 ...

2007

Pre-Salt/Parati

Tupi (Lula)

Dis

cove

rie

s

Carioca

Bem-Te-Vi Guará

Iara

Caramba

Júpiter

Franco

Tupi (CSV) Guará (DP)

Infr

aest

ruct

ure

Iracema (cernambi)

2 2 1 3 6

5

... AND FROM 2011 ONWARDS N

ew R

igs

FPSO

s/

Def

init

ive

Syst

ems

FPSO

s/EW

Ts

2011 2013 2014 2015 ... 2012

Guará Pilot

Lula NE Pilot

Guará Norte

Cernambi Sul

Replic. 3, 4, 5, 6,

7, 8

Infr

astr

uct

ure

4 EWTs 3 EWTs 5 EWTs 5 EWTs

Replic. 1

Replic. 2

Tranfer of Rights

1

8 6 8 already contracted + 21 to be contracted

Route 2

2016+

Route 3

3

Pipeline Lula-Mexilhão

Tranfer of Rights

2, 3 and 4

6

MORE DRILLING RIGS WILL ENABLE A FASTER RAMP-UP OF THE NEW PLATFORMS

0

4

8

12

16

20

P-43 P-48 P-50 P-52 P-54 P-53 P-51 FPSO CAPIXABA

P-57

Mo

nth

s

To reach 50% of capacity

To reach 75% of capacity

2004 2006 2005 2007 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010

Forecast

Water Depth 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013

Up to 1,000 meters 6 11 11

1,000 to 2,000 meters 19 19 21 +2 +1 +1

Over 2,000 meters 2 3 15 +10 +13 +1

7

33,3%

33,3%

33,3%

Gathering Completion + Drilling Units

20%

53%

27%

Gathering Completion + Drilling Units

PRE-SALT CAPEX DISTRIBUTION

DEEPWATER PROJECTS IN CAMPOS BASIN* CAPEX DISTRIBUTION

* Generic example, considering that these rates can change among the different existing projects in Campos Basin

Additional drilling and completion cost in the pre-salt compared with an generic deepwater project in Campos basin can be partially or fully offset by higher quality and quantity of oil expected in the pre-salt area.

CAPITAL COSTS: PRE-SALT vs. CAMPOS Similar equipment and processes: main difference is drilling and completion

8

8

PRE-SALT’S ECONOMICS: PRODUCTIVITY GAINS ...

100%

85%

75% 66%

2006/2007 2008 2009 2010

Average drilling time of the wells completed during the year

PN 2010-2014 PN 2010-2015 N

um

ber

of

wel

ls (

ph

ase

1a)

Drilling needs

- 15%

9

100% 81%

55%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

PLANSAL 2008 (2008-2030) PLANSAL 2009 (2008-2030) PLANSAL 2010 (2008-2030)

100% 118% 152%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

PLANSAL 2008 (2008-2030) PLANSAL 2009 (2008-2030) PLANSAL 2010 (2008-2030)

- 45%

- 32%

… RESULTING IN A HIGHER EXPECTED NPV

Investment

Net Present Value

10

42

55

75

95

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2015 2020

Mexilhão – 15MM m3/day

Uruguá-Tambaú – 10 MM m3/day

Juruá – 2 MM m3/day

2015-20 Associated Natural Gas

from the Pre-salt

2011-15 Non-Associated Natural Gas

Natural gas production from

Pre-salt in Santos Basin to

surpass 20 MM m3/day

Associated Natural Gas

Increasing production in the

Campos and Santos Basins

Urucu

Coari

Manaus

Jurua

Lula

Urugua

PMLZ-1

Mexilhão

UGN RPBC

UTGCA

Million m3

NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION Start-up of Plangas and Pre-salt projects will substantially increase capacity

11

LOGISTICS AND INFRASTRUCTURE

12

E&P INVESTMENTS IN BRAZIL Pre-salt now more than half of development spending over the next five years

Pre-Salt US$ 53.4 Billion

Post-Salt US$ 64.3 Billion

57%

22% 21%

54%

12% 2%

21%

13% Tranfer of

Rights

Development Exploration Infrastructure and support

13

PETROBRAS’ TOTAL RESERVES AND POTENTIAL RECOVERABLE VOLUMES Continuous growth from deeper discoveries

Million boe

Potential increase

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

Onshore 0-300 m 300-1500 m > 1500 m Pre-salt's Recoverable Volume Transfer of Rights

14

1.855 1.971 2.004 2.100

321 317 334 435

618

1.120

111 132 144 141

180

246

99 96 93

96

125

142

2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020

Oil Production - Brazil Natural Gas Production - Brazil Oil Production - International Natural Gas Production - International

2,386 2,516

6,418

3,993

1,148 543

Pre-Salt

’00

0 b

oe

/day

2,772

845 Transfer of Rights

13

+10 Post-Salt Projects

+8 Pre-Salt Projects

+1 Transfer of Rights

+ 35 Systems

Added Capacity

Oil: 2,300,000 bpd

2,575

3,070

4,910

PRODUCTION TARGETS With broad access to new reserves, Petrobras can more than double its production in the next decade

15

2.004 2.100

3.070

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Th bpd

Lula Pilot FPSO BW Cidade Angra dos Reis

100.000 bpd

Cachalote and Baleia Franca

FPSO Capixaba 100.000 bpd

Marlim Sul module 3

SS P-56 100.000 bpd

Jubarte FPSO P-57

180.000 bpd

Baleia Azul FPSO Cidade de

Anchieta 100.000 bpd

(FPSO Espadarte reallocation)

Roncador Módule 4 FPSO P-62

180.000 bpd

Roncador module 3

SS P-55 180.000 bpd

Papa-Terra TLWP P-61 &

FPSO P-63 150.000 bpd

Guará (North) FPSO

150.000 bpd

Parque das Baleias

FPSO P-58 180.000 bpd

Tiro/Sidon FPSO Cidade de

Itajaí 80.000 bpd

Tiro Pilot SS-11

Atlantic Zephir 30.000 bpd

Mexilhão Jaqueta

HG

EWT Guará FPSO Dynamic

Producer 30.000 bpd

ESP/Marimbá FPSO

40.000 bpd

Uruguá FPSO Cidade de

Santos 35.000 bpd

Aruanã FPSO

100.000 bpd

Guará Pilot 2 FPSO Cidade de

São Paulo 120.000 bpd

Lula NE FPSO Cidade de

Paraty 120.000 bpd

Maromba FPSO

100.000 bpd Siri

Jaqueta e FPSO 50.000 bpd

Cernambi South FPSO

150.000 bpd

FPSO P-67 Replicant 2 150.000 bpd BMS-9 our11

4 EWTs Pre-salt

FPSO P-66 Replicant 1 150.000 bpd BMS-9 or 11

Baleia Azul FPSO

60.000 bpd

Juruá GNA

Tambaú FPSO Cidade de

Santos NG

EWTs Lula NE e Cernambi

FPSO BW Cidade São Vicente 30.000 bpd

EWT Carioca FPSO Dynamic

Producer 30.000 bpd

Franco 1 Transfer of

Rights FPSO

150.000 bpd

3 EWTs Pre-salt

5 EWTs Pre-salt

5 EWTs Pre-salt

MAIN E&P PROJECTS Large projects sustain production increases

EWTs

Pre-Salt and Transfer of Rights

Natural Gas

Post-Salt

16

VARREDURA PROJECT

Technological development and exploratory optimization in existing concessions

Descobertas do Pr é - sal na Bacia de Campos 2009/10 (VARREDURA)

Discoveries in Pre-salt Campos Basin 2009/10 (Varredura)

Recoverable volumes discovered:

Post-salt: 1,105 MM boe (Marimbá, Marlim Sul and Pampo)

Pre-salt: 1,130 MM boe* (Barracuda, Caratinga, Marlim, Marlim Leste, Albacora and Albacora Leste)

*No volumes have been announced for the Marlim Leste and Albacora Leste discoveries

Wells productivity close to 15,000 bpd

67 exploratory wells will be drilled between 2011 and 2015 in production

areas in Campos basin

17

OIL/WATER SUBSEA SEPARATION

- Resolves limitations from growing water production

- Separates water and oil under the sea, reinjecting water and relieving the size of the surface equipment on the platform

- Field: Marlim (Nov/2011)

RAW WATER INJECTION

- Increases production in existing systems

- 3 subsea systems for pumping raw water (with little treatment) to pressurize the reservoir, increasing recovery factor without increasing surface systems. Pioneer in the world in such water depth

- Field: Albacora (Dec/2011)

CUTTING-EDGE TECHNOLOGIES

18

NEW VESSELS AND EQUIPMENTS Resources required for production growth

Critical Resources Current Situation

(Dec/10)

Delivery Plan (to be contracted) Accumulated Value

By 2013 By 2015 By 2020

Drilling Rigs Water Depth Above 2.000 m 15 39 37 (1) 65 (2)

Supply and Special Vessel 287 423 479 568

Production Platforms (SS and FPSO) 44 54 61 94

Others (Jacket and TLWP) 78 80 81 83

(1) The contracts for two rigs reallocated from international operations expire in 2015 (2) Long-term demand will be adjusted according to new assessments

Water Depth 2006 2008 2010

Up to 1,000 meters 6 11 11

1,000 to 2,000 meters 19 19 21

Over 2,000 meters 2 3 15

2011 2012 2013

+2 +1 +1

+10 +13 +1

Supply Vessel Drilling Rig FPSO

DRILLING RIGS UNDER CONTRACT

19

19