Pre-Harvest Assessment Findings€¦ · Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) World Food...

Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET)

World Food Program (WFP)

U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

Pre-Harvest Assessment Findings

May 15, 2013, USAID Mission to Afghanistan

Kabul, Afghanistan

1

Rainfed wheat, Khawja Ghar District, Takhar

Province, Northeastern, April 21, 2013

Source: FEWS NET Afghanistan

2

Outline

Seasonal context

Area coverage of joint assessment

Regional crop performance, economic variables, and

shocks

Remote sensing data—strengths and weaknesses this

season

Food security implications

Key messages

3

Seasonal Context

Source: FEWS NET

4

Samangan Province, RFE2 cumulative rainfall in millimeters (mm)

Precipitation started in November, picked up in late

January, catching up to near average

Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)/FEWS NET

5

Faryab Province, RFE2 rainfall in mm per 10 day period (dekad)

Despite total rainfall being less than ideal, very

steady rainfall since February

Source: USGS/FEWS NET

6

2013 Pre-Harvest Assessment: Covered Areas

Source: World Food Program I(WFP)

7

Eastern: Laghman, Nangarhar, and Kunar Provinces

Source: WFP

8

Eastern: Cropping conditions

Area planted:

Irrigated winter wheat

Above average

Area planted:

Rainfed spring wheat

Normal

Area planted:

Other spring crops

Normal

Condition:


Better than 2012

Condition:


Better than 2012

Condition:

Other spring crops

Vegetables better than 2012

9

Eastern: Economic conditions

Labor wages Above 2012

Labor opportunities Above 2012

Livestock prices Above 2012

Livestock conditions Better than 2012

Food aid Similar to 2012

~11,000 MT of food in-kind

Other food security and

agricultural assistance

MAIL offering cash for work (CFW)

for 4,000 people in Kunar

10

Eastern: Shocks and groups to monitor

Observed shocks Wheat stem rust

Some flooding

Potential Shocks Strong winds

Acutely food insecure groups 6,000 households (HH) returnees

1,650 HH flood-affected

150 HH earthquake-affected

Overall, agricultural and livestock production conditions are

seasonally normal. Seasonal improvements are expected

over the next several months, and the wheat harvest is

likely to be above average.

11

Irrigated wheat, Kunar Valley, Kunar Province, Eastern,

April 16


12

Irrigated wheat, Kama District, Nangarhar Province,

Eastern, April 17


13

Central-Eastern: Parwan, Kapisa, and Panjsher

Provinces

Source: WFP

14

Central-Eastern: Cropping conditions

Area planted:


Same as 2012

Area planted:


Same as 2012

Area planted:

Other spring crops

Same as 2012

Condition:


Better than 2012

Condition:


Better than 2012

Condition:

Other spring crops

Same as 2012

15

Central-Eastern: Economic conditions





Food aid Same as 2012



Same as 2012

16

Central-Eastern: Shocks and groups to monitor

Observed shocks None

Potential Shocks None currently anticipated

Acutely food insecure groups IDPs in Nawabad village ~500 HH


above normal. Additional seasonal improvements are

expected over the next several months, and the wheat

harvest is likely to be above average.

17

Irrigated wheat, Sayed Khil, Parwan Province, Central-

Eastern, May 4


18

Wheat, Panjshir Province, Central-Eastern, May 2


19

Northeastern: Baghlan, Kundoz, Takhar, and

Badakhshan Provinces

Source: WFP

20

Northeastern: Cropping conditions

Area planted:


More than 2012

Area planted:


Much higher than 2012

Area planted:

Other spring crops

Same as 2012

Condition:


Better than 2012

Condition:


Better than 2012

Condition:

Other spring crops

Better than 2012

21

Northeastern: Economic conditions








Same as 2012, concentrated

livestock feed distribution,

improved wheat seed distribution

by FAO

22

Northeastern: Shocks and groups to monitor

Observed shocks Worms, though have been

reduced by cooler

temperatures

Snow in Wakhan Corridor has

cut off the road

Potential Shocks Poor or no rain in early May would

likely reduce rainfed wheat yields

Acutely food insecure groups IDPs


much better than last year. Additional seasonal

improvements in food security are expected over the next

several months if there are no additional shocks.

23

Rainfed wheat, Takhar Province, Northeastern, April 21


24

Irrigated wheat, Taloqan, Takhar Province, Northeastern,

April 21


25

Northwestern: Samangan, Balkh, Jawzjan, Saripul,

and Faryab Provinces

26

Northwestern: Cropping conditions

Area planted:


Near average

Area planted:


Above last year

Area planted:

Other spring crops

Above last year

Condition:


Better than 2012

Condition:


Generally, better than 2012

Eastern Jawzjan and Saripul doing

slightly less well than last year

Condition:

Other spring crops

Frost damage to almond trees in

Samangan Province

27

Northwestern: Economic conditions

Labor wages Similar to 2012

Labor opportunities Slightly less than 2012



Food aid Less than 2012 due to reduction in

EMOP



Jawzjan NSP increased

SC nutrition program ended

28

Northwestern: Shocks and groups to monitor

Observed shocks Frost on almond trees, though

still likely to produce some

income

Some flooding

Potential Shocks No additional rain in May would

reduce yields

Acutely food insecure groups IDPs

flood-affected HHs

HHs affected by erosion of Amu

River


much better than last year. Additional seasonal

improvements are expected over the next several months,

and the wheat harvest is likely to be well above average.

29

Irrigated wheat, Balkh District, Balkh Province ,

Northwestern, April 28


30

Rainfed wheat, Suzma Qala, Saripul Province ,

Northwestern, April 27


31

Central-Highlands: Bamyan, Ghor, and

Daikundi Provinces

Source: WFP

32

Central-Highlands: Cropping conditions

Area planted:


Same as 2012 for Bamyan and less as

2012 for Ghor and Daikundi

Area planted:


Same as 2012 for Bamyan and Daikundi

and less in Ghor

Area planted:

Other spring crops

Same as 2012

Condition:


Better than 2012 for Bamyan,

very early in other areas

Condition:


Better than 2012 for Bamyan,

very early in other areas

33

Central-Highlands: Economic conditions

Labor wages Above 2012 in Bamyan, slightly less/the

same Ghor and Daikondi

Labor opportunities Above 2012 in Bamyan,

same/less in Daikundi and Ghor

Livestock prices Above 2012 in Bamyan,

same/less Daikundi and Ghor

Livestock conditions Better than 2012 in Bamyan,

poor in Ghor and Daikundi




Improved wheat seed in Ghor and Bamayn

for spring 2013 by FAO

34

Central-Highlands: Shocks and groups to monitor

Observed shocks Some flooding, less snowpack

than usual, lack of work

opportunities, cold weather

and winter losses of wheat

crop

Potential Shocks Additional flooding, plant diseases,

wheat rust, unusual cold weather

Acutely food insecure groups Close monitoring is required for

crops in Ghor, Panjab, Yakawlang,

Waras, and Saighan Districts in

Bamyan, and Khidir, Sangtakht,

Ashterlay, and Miramor Districts in

Daikundi

35

Central-Highland: Summary

Seasonal improvements are expected with the harvest in

September, and the wheat harvest looks likely to be

average if seasonally normal conditions continue.

Both Ghor and Daikundi require close monitoring as the

crops are in an earlier stage of development and a number

of potential shocks are possible between now and

September.

36

Wheat, Taiwara District, Ghor Province,

Central Highlands, April 21, 2013

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

37

Western: Hirat, Badghis, Farah, and

Nimroz Provinces

Source: WFP

38

Western: Cropping conditions

Area planted:


Above 2012

Area planted:

Rain-fed wheat

Slightly above 2012

Area planted:

Other spring crops

Normal

Condition:


Better than 2012

Condition:

Rain-fed wheat

Better than 2012

Condition:

Other spring crops

Better than 2012

39

Western: Economic conditions

Labor wages Slightly above 2012

Labor opportunities The same as 2012

Livestock prices Lower than 2012


Food aid Less than 2012

8,237 MT of food in-kind



MAIL distributed 3,500 MT

improved wheat seed,

Saffron and soybean seed also

distributed,

WVI expanded in Badghis

40

Western: Shocks and groups to monitor

Observed shocks Localized flooding

Some frost

Potential Shocks Additional flooding

Plant diseases (Rust, smut)

Locusts and other pests

High winds during the harvest in

Nimroz

Acutely food insecure groups 10,889 Natural disaster-affected

HHs,

25,500 IDP HHs and Returnees

•With continued seasonally normal conditions, food security

will likely seasonally improve with the harvest unless there are

further shocks. A high number of IDPs require close monitoring.

41

South-Western: Kandahar, Helmand, Uruzgan, and

Zabul Provinces

Source: WFP

42

South-Western: Cropping conditions

Area planted:


Above 2012

Area planted:


Above 2012

Area planted:

Other spring crops

Better than 2012

Condition:


Better than 2012

Condition:


Better than 2012

Condition:

Other spring crops

Better 2012

43

South-Western: Economic conditions

Labor wages Slightly Above 2012

Labor opportunities Slightly Above 2012






Same as 2012

44

South-Western: Shocks and groups to monitor

Observed shocks None

Potential Shocks Flood & Wind

Acute Food insecure groups 8,601 flood and other natural

disaster affected HH

26,100 IDP HHs & Returnees



further shocks. The high number of IDPs both from conflict and

natural disasters require close monitoring.

45

South-Eastern: Paktya, Paktika, and Khost Provinces

Source: WFP

46

South-Eastern: Cropping conditions

Area planted:


Above 2012

Area planted:


Higher than 2012

Area planted:

Other spring crops

Better than 2012

Condition:


Normal

Condition:


Normal

Condition:

Other spring crops

Better than 2012

47

South-Eastern: Economic conditions








Same as 2012

48

South-Eastern: Shocks and groups to monitor

Observed shocks Wheat rust in Khost Province

Potential Shocks Hail storms

High winds during the harvest

wheat rust

Acutely food insecure groups 2,061 IDP HHs

and Returnees



further shocks.

49

South-Central: Kabul, Logar, Wardak, and

Ghazni Provinces

Source: WFP

50

South-Central: Cropping conditions

Area planted:


Slightly above 2012

Area planted:


Slightly above 2012

Area planted:

Other spring crops

Above last year

Condition:


Normal

Condition:

Rain-fed wheat

Normal in all provinces,

Except poorer in Ghazni

Condition:

Other spring crops

Better than 2012

51

South-Central: Economic conditions

Labor wages Similar to 2012

Labor opportunities Slightly less than 2012






Same as 2012

52

South-Central: Shocks and groups to monitor

Observed shocks No significant shock

Potential Shocks Wheat rust infestation

Acutely food insecure groups 2,003 Earthquake and natural

disaster affected HHs

8,580 IDP HHs and returnees



further shocks.

53

eMODIS NDVI anomaly, April 26 – May 5, 2013

NDVI generally was reflecting crop conditions


54

October 1, 2012-April 30, 2013 accumulated precipitation

Total wet season precipitation was a less relevant

indicator due to uneven temporal distribution


55

Food Security Implications

Wheat availability both at household and market levels will

likely increase more than usual with the May to September

harvest.

Economic access to food has already seasonally increased, and

it is likely to be further bolstered by increasing income

associated with a well above average wheat harvest.

Well above average national wheat production will reduce the

demand for wheat and wheat flour imports, which will help

reduce the impact of international markets on domestic staple

food prices.

56

Key Messages

For the second year in a row, total, national, grain production in Afghanistan is likely to be well above average. The harvest from May to September should increase the availability of wheat, the primary staple food, at both household and market levels.

The well above average harvest will likely increase access to food from markets above seasonally typical levels from now to September by increasing labor wages, providing more labor opportunities than usual, and helping maintain above average livestock prices.

Too much or not enough rain in the rest of May, additional flooding, and the spread of plant diseases or pests could increase acute food insecurity between now and September.

57

For More Information

www.wfp.org

www.fao.org

www.fews.net/Afghanistan

Karim Najimi

[email protected]

http://www.wfp.org/

http://www.fao.org/

http://www.fews.net/Afghanistan

mailto:[email protected]

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