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Traffic Flow Management Weather Requirements

Working Group (TRWG) Program Review

Presented to Jason Tuell, NWS Meteorological Services Division

and Ellen King, FAA System Operations

April 1, 2011

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Agenda

• Background• Organization of TRWG• Key Deliverables• Status Update• Concerns/Challenges• Update on other issues• Summary

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Background on TRWG

• Established in August 2010 to meet four objectives: – Baseline current NWS weather support capability– Develop firm requirements for near-term services to Next

Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) Middle Operating Capability (MOC)

– Provide a plan to implement solutions to meet requirements beginning in October 2011

– Deliver a Project Plan Roadmap by November 2010• Other short-term tasks identified in original FAA/NWS

correspondence– TRACON Forecast standard look and feel– CWSU off-hour support

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Baseline Aviation Weather Support

• Scheduled and Event Driven Briefings

• CCFP• TRACON forecast

production

• National Guidance• Weather Models

− Wind forecasts• LAMP

• CCFP• CIP/FIP/GTG• ADDS

• Terminal aerodrome forecasts (TAF)

• National Digital Forecast Database

• Volcanic ash advisories

Support to Traffic Flow Management

WFO

Volcanic Ash

Advisory Center

AWC NCEP

CWSU

TRWG_002

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5

TRWG Role in

NextGen Program Development

Requirements Mapping

Requirements Mapping

FOC

TRWG_005

• Digital weather information in support of NextGen

• Impact decision support services

Current• Products and

services

• Impact decision support

MOC• Transition from

product-based to Net-enabled weather

• Impact decision support services

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TRWG Organization

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TRWG

ProgramManagement

Team

Baseline Team

Requirements Team

QualityTeam

ImplementationTeam

TRWG_004

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Project Plan RoadmapCompleted 11/24/2010

• Stems from TRWG’s charge to create work plan by end of November 2010

• Defines the activities and deliverables needed between now and October 2011

• Baseline current suite and cost of products and services• Develop requirements of weather information in support

of TFM• Perform gap analysis to determine capabilities of current

products and those needed at NextGen MOC• Develop implementation plan to meet requirements

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Key Deliverables

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Task Participants Lead Service Organization Due Date

Identify current NWS- produced TFM products TRWG ATO-R NWS Personnel

COMPLETE

Complete a high- level plan for NWS-provided TFM information support, including categorical identification of performance measures to be tracked

TRWG ATO-R 11/30/10

Complete mid-term (2015- 2018) performance requirements for NextGen TFM Wx Information

Support

FAA Sub-TRWG

ATO-P 3/31/11

Complete assessment of baseline performance of current NWS TFM products

NWS Sub-TRWG

4/30/11

Complete gap analysis (between baseline performance and 2015- 2018 performance requirements)

TRWG ATO-P 5/15/11

Complete near-term (2012- 2015) performance requirements for NextGen TFM Wx Information Support

TRWG ATO-P 6/15/11

Allocate near- term performance requirements for TFM information support to FAA, NWS AWC, NWS

WFOs, and CWSUs

TRWG ATO-P 7/15/11

Complete implementation plan for TFM information support provided by NWS

TRWG ATO-R 9/1/11

COMPLETE

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• Requirements Approach– Iterative process involving Traffic Flow Managers and

NextGen Requirements Team – Two separate surveys completed: one focused on 11 FAA

facilities within Golden Triangle and the other on Collaborative Decision Making groups

– Near-term requirements – Due 4/30/2011– DRAFT NextGen functional requirements for MOC received – 3/23

Requirements Team

Initial set of TFM

requirements3/31/11

Gap analysis5/15/11

Requirements from gap analysis between current

and MOC6/15/11

Comprehensive TFM requirements

7/15/11

TRWG_001

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2.0 Requirements Analysis & Development Dates Status Responsibility2.1 Baseline 2.1.1Identify current NWS weather info/products 9/23/2010 Complete 2.1.2Identify other weather info/products 9/30/2010 Complete 2.1.3Identify key performance metrics for TFM decisions

(POD/FAR, location error [geospatial verification], timing error, lead-time to onset, lead-time to cessation) 1/24/2011 Complete

2.1.4Describe current baseline products and services 11/1/2010 Complete Baseline ST2.1.5Complete preliminary description of current baseline

requirements (update of November baseline with January TFM metrics) by domain (TRACON, Terminal, En Route)

4/30/2011 Ongoing Baseline ST

2.1.6Complete final baseline based upon new performance measures/metrics (all parameters) 3/31/2012 *contingent

on funding

Requirements Sub-TeamWorkplan with Key Dates

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2.2 Requirements 2.2.1Mid-term Requirements

2.2.1.1Develop mid-term functional requirements 2.2.1.1.1Distribute for Requirements Sub-Team review 1/31/2011 Complete 2.2.1.1.2Distribute for full TRWG review (deliverable) 3/31/2011 Ongoing

2.2.1.2Develop mid-term performance requirements 2.2.1.2.1Distribute for Requirements Sub-Team review 3/23/2011 Ongoing 2.2.1.2.2Distribute for full TRWG review (deliverable) 3/31/2011 Ongoing

2.3 Gap Analysis 2.3.1Pilot gap analysis process 4/15/2011 2.3.2Complete preliminary gap-analysis between current

capability and MOC requirements 5/15/2011

2.3.3Complete gap analysis based upon new performance measures/metrics. Link to Task 2.6. 5/30/2012

2.4 Allocation 2.4.1Pilot allocation process 4/15/2011 2.4.2Allocate 2018 requirements

2.4.2.1Allocate to agencies and other 6/15/2011 2.4.2.2Allocate within agencies, including R&D 7/15/2011 2.5 Implementation

2.5.1Year-by-Year, 2012-2018, joint plan to meet requirements in terms of performance, procedures, communications, equippage, training, staffing, organization and budget.

9/30/2011 Implementation ST

Workplan with Key Dates (con’t)

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Baseline Team

• Baseline Approach and Progress– Four-phase approach

• Phase 1 – assessment of quality of current NWS products and services - Complete

• Phase 2 – comparison of current suite of NWS products and services against the TFM weather requirements – Due 4/30/2011

– Future work to support NextGen TFM• Phase 3 – assessment of performance measures for TFM

decision making• Phase 4 – analysis of end-to-end TFM decision-making, from

the provision of weather information through the decision-making process and the impact on the NAS

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New Performance Measures for Baseline

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• Weather performance metrics linked to Traffic Management Initiatives provided to NWS

– En Route Performance Metric:• Airspace Flow Programs/En-route area (AFP 5 and 8)

– Lead-time for onset and cessation of thunderstorms with probability greater than 50% of occurrence

– Terminal Performance Metrics:• Ground delay/Ground stops in Terminal areas for the 30 core airports• Lead-time for onset and cessation of: (and timing error)

– Marginal VFR and IFR conditions – Wind direction change of 30 degrees or more with speed GTE 12

knots– TRACON Performance Metrics:

• Lead-time for the onset and the cessation of a thunderstorm with a probability equal to or greater than 50% that are within 150nm (Diameter) of the 30 core terminals

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Key Progress to Date

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• NWS provided Phase 1 baseline information– Contained in Project Plan Roadmap

• New performance requirements– NWS Performance Branch and NOAA Global Systems

Division• Existing Lead time to IFR software can be expanded to meet

terminal performance measure requirements

• If fully funded, 6-9 months development and implementation

– En Route and TRACON metrics will be based upon National Digital Forecast Database

• Verification of convection expected in Fall 2011

• Additional software development will be necessary to determine accuracy of convection forecasts for outline the area associated with FCA 8 and 5

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Quality Management Team

• Quality Management Approach– Baselined to user requirements – Quality Management Plan will provide framework

for assessing and measuring overall quality of products and services

– Plan incorporates all aspects of Quality Assurance– ISO 9000 and WMO standards– Component of Implementation

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Implementation Team

• Approach– Notional schedule developed for FY12 through

NextGen MOC that includes: • Identifying FAA activities driven by TFM weather

requirements• Establishing the final technical solution to meet

requirements• Developing performance metrics

– NEED NOTIONAL SCHEDULE Wayne and Pat

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Key Progress to Date

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• Drafts of key Implementation Plan Components– Risk – Communications– Quality– Training

• Notational Schedule

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Baseline Aviation Weather Cost

• Capture the current cost of NWS aviation weather support to TFM

• Quantify the cost of providing 11 identified products and services to include:

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Aviation Weather Costs

Costs will include labor and non-labor items:• Labor

– To produce the product or service

– Labor to maintain the system

• Infrastructure– Facility cost

– Equipment for users and underlying system equipment (tech refresh and maintenance included)

– Software (updates, maintenance)

– Communications

• Costs to Pull from Source Data– Observation data, usage information

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Cost Project Progress

• Finished with CWSU analysis• Working on AWC contributions to TFM

– CCFP is main product– CIP– FIP– Impact Guidance; Volcanic Ash, GTG, LAMP

• NWS WFO TAFs for core 30 airports– Survey out--over 50% response so far

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Concerns/Challenges

• Equipping CWSUs (WARP evolves to NWP)– TRWG agrees AWIPS II is good approach– Agencies corporate position? Funding?

• Customer based, operationally relevant metrics– Who pays?

• NWS understanding and involvement with NWP and NNEW programs

• Leveraging research to operations projects

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Update on Other Tasks

• TRACON– Convective TDA standardized look and feel– 6 TRACONS Currently following ATL/ZTL Model– ORD/ZAU and MSP/ZMP Digital Solution

• CWSU Off-hour Support– NWS Directives prescribe parent WFO– NWS working to determine an improved way of

providing off-hour support• Investigating providing a single telephone number at

Aviation Weather Center

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Summary

• NWS/FAA Team– Develop implementation plan to meet weather

support requirements– Focuses on Traffic Flow Management (TFM)

• Develop baseline (including cost)• Propose Solutions that meet requirements

– Begin Implementation October 2011

• Team is on track with original plan

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Backup Slides

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Path to Overcoming Challenges

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• Continue advancing digital information• Leverage OSIP and CDM/AWT Projects

– NDFD Enhanced grids for TAFs/TRACON– CoSPA or SREF– Operational Bridging/MITL

• Complete gap analysis• Develop performance measures• Finalize Implementation Plan• Execute

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Baseline Cost Approach

• Our cost approach will include:– Tapping into a wealth of existing cost data

– Reviewing activity usage information and system usage data

– Pulling from other reports and data

– Accounting for percentage which supports TFM

• Bridging information gaps through interviews with NCEP and a sampling of MICs at both WFOs and CWSUs