Prabhudas Liladhar - earning guide

8/7/2019 Prabhudas Liladhar - earning guide

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INDIA

Research Team ([email protected])+91-22-6632 2214

Earnings GuideAugust 2009


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Top Picks

Bharti Airtel BHEL Larsen & Toubro

Sterlite Industries Maruti Suzuki Tata Motors

Bajaj Auto Bank of Baroda HDIL

Zee Entertainment

Large Caps

Mid Caps

Mphasis Lupin United Phosphorus

Shriram Transport Finance Yes Bank IVRCL Infrastructure

India Infoline Edelweiss Capital Jagran Prakashan

Indraprastha Gas KEC International Dishman Pharma

Ess Dee Aluminium Hindustan Dorr Oliver


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Nifty Valuation A Snapshot

Weightage (%) FY09 FY10E FY11E

Banking and Financials 22.2%PER (x) 17.1 14.8 12.2

PAT Growth (%) 25.3 14.8 22.1

Oil & Gas 17.4%

PER (x) 17.4 14.5 11.7

PAT Growth (%) (2.2) 20.5 23.9

Eng. & Power 16.7%

PER (x) 26.4 22.6 19.3

PAT Growth (%) 12.7 16.8 17.0

Tech. 11.5%

PER (x) 19.7 18.5 17.0

PAT Growth (%) 12.5 6.4 8.8

Telecom 6.7%

PER (x) 15.6 14.7 13.1

PAT Growth (%) 17.2 6.5 12.0

FMCG 7.1%

PER (x) 24.8 23.3 20.3

PAT Growth (%) 14.9 6.4 15.0

Weightage (%) FY09 FY10E FY11E

Metals 6.7%PER (x) 11.9 18.5 15.0

PAT Growth (%) 5.4 (35.8) 23.4

Auto 4.6%

PER (x) 25.3 16.9 13.9

PAT Growth (%) (34.7) 50.2 21.7

Cement 2.9%

PER (x) 25.0 18.6 20.1

PAT Growth (%) (12.8) 34.0 (7.1)

Real Estate 2.2%

PER (x) 16.6 34.2 26.5

PAT Growth (%) (38.5) (51.4) 29.3

Pharma 2.1%

PER (x) 16.8 20.9 14.7

PAT Growth (%) 30.6 (19.5) 41.9

Nifty as on Aug 14 4,580

NIFTY EPS 251.0 267.3 323.7

PER (x) 18.2 17.1 14.2

PAT Growth (%) 4.4 6.5 21.1


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PL Universe A Snapshot

Last Year (FY09) 1-year forward (FY10E)

(Rs.m) (Rs.m) Growth (%) Valuations (x)

Total Inc. PAT Total inc. PAT Total inc. PAT PER MCTBS P/BV P/ABV RoE (%) RoA (%)

Banks 2,237,743 272,005 2,510,465 305,662 12.2 12.4 12.1 12.3 1.9 2.2 16.1 1.0

Financial Services 248,899 51,635 281,337 65,174 13.0 26.2 17.8 43.7 3.0 3.0 16.9 2.4

Total 16,521,651 1,677,546 17,196,659 1,908,769 4.1 13.8 15.1

Last Year (FY09) 1-year forward (FY10E)


Sales PAT Sales PAT Sales PAT PER MC/sales EV/EBITDA EV/sales RoE (%) RoCE (%)

Automobile 1,063,050 52,417 1,231,846 80,123 15.9 52.9 17.0 1.1 8.6 1.1 22.9 11.5

Auto Ancl. 121,951 5,062 169,278 6,872 38.8 35.8 15.2 0.6 6.2 0.7 16.5 11.5

Agri Products & Chemicals 272,539 21,152 228,550 19,734 (16.1) (6.7) 11.4 1.0 6.6 1.3 21.4 6.2

Aviation 130,779 (22,272) 126,206 (6,464) (3.5) (71.0) (3.5) 0.2 23.0 2.1 (34.5) (0.8)

Capital Goods 1,002,372 76,122 1,048,702 86,751 4.6 14.0 22.0 1.8 13.5 1.8 23.4 16.6

Cement 448,843 64,636 490,521 81,693 9.3 26.4 9.4 1.6 5.0 1.6 23.6 28.7

Construction 669,860 35,393 804,284 50,493 20.1 42.7 26.4 1.7 16.6 2.0 16.6 9.4


IT 988,322 180,577 1,039,169 191,840 5.1 6.2 17.9 3.3 10.1 2.5 31.2 27.5

Media 80,375 7,071 90,246 11,412 12.3 61.4 27.1 3.4 13.1 3.3 11.3 9.6

Metals 2,007,901 192,424 1,727,933 153,094 (13.9) (20.4) 12.5 1.1 8.3 1.5 15.5 9.1

Offshore & Ship Building 84,459 15,929 100,494 17,744 19.0 11.4 17.7 3.1 11.0 4.7 20.6 9.0

Oil & Gas 5,525,005 405,945 5,427,248 490,724 (1.8) 20.9 13.3 1.2 7.1 1.2 19.5 14.7

Pharma 253,182 48,680 265,039 44,571 4.7 (8.4) 15.9 2.7 14.6 2.9 22.4 17.0

Power 441,261 84,458 506,574 92,662 14.8 9.7 22.6 4.1 17.1 4.8 12.5 8.9

Real Estate 25,448 11,410 32,508 12,735 27.7 11.6 11.3 4.4 7.3 4.8 12.4 10.6

Sugar 56,753 189 68,367 7,797 20.5 4036.4 14.9 1.7 8.8 2.2 20.1 11.2

Telecom 716,790 155,315 873,429 169,493 21.9 9.1 14.1 2.7 8.5 3.3 19.2 11.9

Others 63,031 5,026 82,233 9,619 30.5 91.4 4.6 0.5 3.6 0.8 22.5 15.7

Sub-Total 14,035,009 1,353,906 14,404,856 1,537,933 2.6 13.6 15.6 1.7 9.2 1.8


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PL Universe A Snapshot

1yr. Fwd. (FY10E) 2-years forward (FY11E)


Total Inc. PAT Total inc. PAT Total inc. PAT PER MCTBS P/BV P/ABV RoE (%) RoA (%)

Banks 2,510,465 305,662 2,927,673 370,502 16.6 21.2 9.9 10.1 1.7 1.9 17.0 1.0


Total 17,196,659 1,908,769 19,724,170 2,240,116 14.7 17.4 13.0

1yr. Fwd. (FY10E) 2-years forward (FY11E)


Sales PAT Sales PAT Sales PAT PER MC/sales EV/EBITDA EV/sales RoE (%) RoCE (%)

Automobile 1,231,846 80,123 1,386,237 97,391 12.5 21.6 14.0 1.0 7.3 1.2 22.4 11.8

Auto Ancl. 169,278 6,872 215,267 8,705 27.2 26.7 12.0 0.5 5.2 0.5 17.3 12.9

Agri Products & Chemicals 228,550 19,734 250,617 24,278 9.7 23.0 9.3 0.9 5.2 1.1 19.8 8.2

Aviation 126,206 (6,464) 137,194 (4,581) 8.7 (29.1) (4.9) 0.2 19.1 2.0 (34.7) 0.3

Capital Goods 1,048,702 86,751 1,229,492 107,151 17.2 23.5 17.8 1.5 10.9 1.5 24.1 18.1

Cement 490,521 81,693 494,587 72,766 0.8 (10.9) 10.5 1.5 5.7 1.6 17.9 23.4

Construction 804,284 50,493 981,731 53,181 22.1 5.3 25.1 1.4 15.1 1.8 15.1 8.3


IT 1,039,169 191,840 1,157,439 210,219 11.4 9.6 16.3 3.0 10.9 2.7 26.4 23.4

Media 90,246 11,412 104,527 15,498 15.8 35.8 20.0 3.0 10.1 2.8 13.9 11.7

Metals 1,727,933 153,094 1,911,379 228,184 10.6 49.0 8.4 1.0 6.1 1.3 18.4 11.2

Offshore & Ship Building 100,494 17,744 122,225 24,589 21.6 38.6 12.8 2.6 8.6 3.8 23.7 10.8

Oil & Gas 5,427,248 490,724 6,285,583 559,161 15.8 13.9 11.6 1.0 6.2 1.0 19.3 15.0

Pharma 265,039 44,571 314,999 59,944 18.9 34.5 14.4 2.7 14.6 2.8 24.0 19.2

Power 506,574 92,662 572,092 96,762 12.9 4.4 21.6 3.7 16.2 4.7 12.1 7.9

Real Estate 32,508 12,735 35,843 12,699 10.3 (0.3) 13.6 4.8 8.4 5.1 9.7 f

Sugar 68,367 7,797 93,975 10,839 37.5 39.0 10.7 1.2 5.8 1.3 18.3 12.5

Telecom 873,429 169,493 999,277 189,363 14.4 11.7 12.6 2.4 7.1 2.8 17.9 11.8

Others 82,233 9,619 64,010 6,898 (22.2) (28.3) 17.2 1.9 11.0 2.0 20.1 15.3

Sub-Total 14,404,856 1,537,933 16,462,990 1,794,266 14.3 16.7 13.5 1.5 8.2 1.6


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6,514

3,686

3,427

2,3892,090

1,917 1,906

1,4701,360 1,332

765 710

315 309 225 144 116 104 4423-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

(Rsbn)

Oil&gas

Banks IT

TelecomPow

er

Metals

Capit

alGoods

Finan

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ervices

Autom

obiles

Const

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Cement

Pharma

Offsh

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ipBuildi

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Media

AgriP

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ts&C

hemicals

RealEsta

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AutoAnc

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Others

Aviation

PL Universe Market Capitalisation

All stock prices as on August 14, 2009

Market Cap. (in trillion rupees)

PL Universe : 28.6

Sensex : 10.9

BSE-100 : 15.5

Nifty : 12.1


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Automobiles

Sector View

Over Weight

Top Picks

Maruti Suzuki

Bajaj Auto

Tata Motors

Last Year (FY09) 1-year forward (FY10E) 2-year forward (FY11E)

(Rs.m) (Rs) (Rs.m) (Rs) (Rs.m) (Rs)

Reco CMP Sales PAT EPS FCPS Sales PAT EPS FCPS Sales PAT EPS FCPS

Ashok Leyland Reduce 37 59,811 1,884 1.4 (21.5) 62,096 2,238 1.7 4.2 72,901 2,647 2.0 0.2

Bajaj Auto Acc 1,121 88,103 6,544 45.2 186.4 102,088 11,834 81.8 67.3 114,657 14,329 99.0 94.0

Hero Honda Acc 1,478 123,569 12,818 64.2 57.5 142,042 17,586 88.1 89.3 157,474 20,288 101.6 93.1

M&M* Acc 789 267,564 15,681 59.7 (55.4) 316,875 17,362 66.1 (122.3) 353,427 20,588 78.4 (72.2)

Maruti Suzuki Acc 1,346 207,322 12,187 42.2 (10.5) 266,187 20,025 69.3 3.4 295,658 22,356 77.4 22.9

Tata Motors* Acc 467 316,681 3,304 6.1 (840.8) 342,557 11,076 20.4 (105.4) 392,119 17,179 31.6 61.5

SECTOR 1,063,050 52,417 1,231,846 80,123 1,386,237 97,387

* Conso lidated * Tata Motors Consol idated nos. excluding JLR

Financials

Valuations Growth (%) Valuations (x)

Sales PAT EPS PER MC/sales EV/EBIDTA EV/sales RoE (%) RoCE (%)

Ashok Leyland FY10 3.8 18.8 18.8 21.8 0.8 10.4 0.9 6.4 5.7

FY11 17.4 18.3 18.3 18.4 0.7 8.6 0.8 7.4 6.6

Bajaj Auto FY10 15.9 80.8 80.8 13.7 1.6 8.9 1.6 71.4 20.0

FY11 12.3 21.1 21.1 11.3 1.4 7.7 1.3 22.7 20.0Hero Honda FY10 14.9 37.2 37.2 16.8 2.1 12.7 2.0 38.0 46.3

FY11 10.9 15.4 15.4 14.6 1.9 10.8 1.8 32.9 39.4

M&M* FY10 18.4 10.7 10.7 11.9 0.7 7.5 1.0 21.7 9.6

FY11 11.5 18.6 18.6 10.1 0.6 7.0 1.0 47.2 21.2

Maruti Suzuki FY10 28.4 64.3 64.3 19.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 19.5 18.1

FY11 11.1 11.6 11.6 17.4 1.3 10.4 1.2 18.3 17.2

Tata Motors* FY10 8.2 235.2 235.2 22.9 0.7 15.1 1.5 17.5 10.0

FY11 14.5 55.1 55.1 14.8 0.6 5.5 1.3 23.3 8.6

SECTOR FY10 15.9 52.9 17.0 1.1 8.8 1.1 22.9 11.5FY11 12.5 21.5 14.0 1.0 7.4 1.2 22.4 11.8

* Conso lidated * Tata Motors Conso lidated nos. exc luding JLR

Surjit [email protected]

+91 22 6632 2235


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Auto Ancillaries

Sector View

Under Weight

Top Picks

Bharat Forge




Apollo Tyres Acc 42 49,841 1,391 2.8 (10.6) 55,459 2,795 5.5 (11.4) 85,904 3,310 6.6 (15.4)

Bharat Forge Acc 226 20,576 1,896 7.9 (1.3) 23,841 1,599 8.4 16.2 27,838 2,741 11.4 9.9

Ceat Acc 134 25,137 210 6.1 15.4 27,728 1,177 34.4 (35.7) 32,552 959 28.0 36.7

Motherson Sumi Acc 80 26,397 1,565 4.4 5.0 62,251 1,300 3.7 3.2 68,973 1,695 4.8 8.1

SECTOR 121,951 5,062 169,278 6,872 215,267 8,705

Financials

Surjit [email protected]

+91 22 6632 2235



Apollo Tyres FY10 11.3 100.9 94.9 7.5 0.4 3.9 0.5 18.4 20.0

FY11 54.9 18.4 18.4 6.3 0.2 3.5 0.4 17.9 19.6

Bharat Forge FY10 15.9 (15.7) 7.0 26.8 2.1 7.6 1.6 12.2 8.5

FY11 16.8 71.4 35.1 19.8 1.8 5.2 1.3 14.5 10.5

Ceat FY10 10.3 461.2 461.2 3.9 0.2 4.2 0.4 22.1 12.4

FY11 17.4 (18.5) (18.5) 4.8 0.1 5.3 0.4 16.7 10.2

Motherson Sumi FY10 135.8 (16.9) (16.9) 21.8 0.5 10.4 0.5 14.1 9.9

FY11 10.8 30.3 30.3 16.7 0.4 8.5 0.5 30.9 17.9

SECTOR FY10 38.8 35.8 15.2 0.6 6.2 0.7 16.5 11.5FY11 27.2 26.7 12.0 0.5 5.2 0.5 17.3 12.9


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Sector View

Equal Weight

Top Picks

United

Phosphorus

Agri Products & Chemicals




Chambal Fertilizers Acc 52 56,161 2,454 5.9 12.7 39,097 2,737 6.6 14.0 40,964 3,310 8.0 15.5

Deepak Fertilisers Reduce 78 14,667 1,508 17.1 22.3 12,725 1,188 13.5 21.0 13,643 1,414 16.0 23.8

Jain Irrigation Acc 684 29,818 1,721 23.2 31.6 37,215 2,614 34.3 44.9 44,724 3,693 48.4 60.0

Tata Chemicals Reduce 259 122,577 10,518 43.2 96.3 82,430 6,510 26.7 87.3 86,006 7,308 30.0 92.5

United Phosphorus BUY 174 49,317 4,952 10.7 14.8 57,084 6,686 14.4 19.1 65,281 8,553 18.4 23.4

SECTOR 272,539 21,152 228,550 19,734 250,617 24,278

Financials



Chambal Fertilizers FY10 (30.4) 11.5 11.5 7.9 0.6 5.7 1.2 19.6 9.3FY11 4.8 20.9 20.9 6.5 0.5 4.6 1.0 20.5 10.1

Deepak Fertilisers FY10 (13.2) (21.2) (21.2) 5.8 0.5 3.2 0.7 13.9 12.0

FY11 7.2 19.0 19.0 4.9 0.5 2.6 0.6 15.0 13.4

Jain Irrigation FY10 24.8 51.9 47.8 20.0 1.4 11.2 1.9 24.2 13.7

FY11 20.2 41.3 41.3 14.1 1.2 8.8 1.6 26.2 15.9

Tata Chemicals FY10 (32.8) (38.1) (38.1) 9.7 0.8 5.2 1.1 15.1 10.5

FY11 4.3 12.3 12.3 8.6 0.7 3.7 0.8 15.4 11.0

United Phosphorus FY10 15.7 35.0 35.0 12.1 1.4 7.5 1.5 23.4 17.3

FY11 14.4 27.9 27.9 9.5 1.2 6.0 1.2 24.3 19.0SECTOR FY10 (16.1) (6.7) 11.4 1.0 6.6 1.3 21.4 6.2

FY11 9.7 23.0 9.3 0.9 5.2 1.1 19.8 8.2

Manish [email protected]

+91 22 6632 2239


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Sector View

Under Weight

Top Picks

None

Aviation




Jet Airways Reduce 262 130,779 (22,272) - - 126,206 (6,464) - - 137,194 (4,581) _ _

SECTOR 130,779 (22,272) 126,206 (6,464) 137,194 (4,581)

Financials


Sales PAT EPS PER MC/sales EV/EBIDTAR EV/sales RoE (%) RoCE (%)

Jet Airways FY10 (3.5) 0.2 23.0 2.1 0.7

FY11 8.7 (29.1) 0.2 19.1 2.0 1.9

SECTOR FY10 (3.5) (71.0) (3.5) 0.2 23.0 2.1 (34.5) (0.8)

FY11 8.7 (29.1) (4.9) 0.2 19.1 2.0 (34.7) 0.3

Mihir M [email protected]

+91 22 6632 2232


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11

Banks

Sector View

Equal Weight

Top Picks

ICICI Bank

Bank of BarodaYes Bank



Reco CMP Tota l NII PAT EPS B V A B V Total NII PAT EPS B V A B V Tota l NII PAT EPS B V A B V

I n c o m e I nc om e I n co m e

Axis Bank Acc 870 137,324 36,862 18,154 50.6 284.5 281.6 163,523 46,381 23,103 64.4 336.0 324.7 191,839 61,202 29,342 81.7 403.7 394.4

Bank of Baroda BUY 432 177,542 51,234 21,322 58.3 273.8 274.1 200,639 59,255 25,295 69.2 330.6 330.6 237,494 73,897 30,139 82.5 401.4 401.4

Bank of India Acc 319 193,992 54,989 30,074 57.2 211.9 211.7 213,809 61,985 28,035 53.3 255.3 243.1 239,261 70,195 32,338 61.5 306.2 291.5

HDFC Bank Acc 1,427 196,229 74,212 22,450 52.8 344.3 341.2 221,589 84,225 29,258 64.8 455.6 449.6 256,716 1 05,210 38,118 84.4 524.7 520.8

ICICI Bank Acc 744 386,963 83,666 37,581 33.8 382.3 363.1 370,001 89,585 3 8,402 34.5 402.2 383.0 372,649 108,257 49,200 44.2 431.8 413.5

Pun jab Nat iona l Bank Acc 693 222 ,459 70,309 30,909 98 .0 416 .7 430 .3 246 ,220 82,933 35,476 112 .5 497 .7 491.6 284 ,070 97,130 40,924 129 .8 602.9 602 .9

State Bank of India Reduce 1,797 764,792 208,731 91,212 143.7 828.1 739.0 906,819 240,881 103,327 162.8 954.1 856.4 1,119,448 317,271 123,364 194.3 1,105.4 976.2

Union Bank of India Acc 211 133 ,71 9 38 ,13 6 1 7,2 66 34.2 139.7 142.7 15 8,2 42 42, 152 1 8,3 38 36.3 169.9 164.8 185 ,77 7 51 ,60 5 2 1, 213 42.0 204. 3 202.2

Yes Bank BUY 158 24,723 5,112 3,038 10.2 52.1 51.5 29,131 7,461 4,054 13.6 65.8 64.5 37,522 9,998 5,374 18.1 83.9 82.1

SECTOR 2,237,743 623,251 272,005 2,509,974 714,857 305,287 2,924,776 894,765 370,012

For SBI Rs 92.5 per share reduced for investment in subsidiaries from Book Value & Rs 347.2 per share reduced from the CMP for value of subsidiary

For ICICI Rs 66 per share reduced for investment in subsidiaries from Book Value & Rs 157 per share reduced from the CMP for value of subsidiary

Financials

Abhijit [email protected]

+91 22 6632 2236

Bharat [email protected]

+91 22 6632 2242


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Banks

Sector View

Equal Weight

Top Picks

ICICI Bank

Bank of BarodaYes Bank

Growth (%) Valuations (x)

Total inc. NII PAT EPS PER MC/balance sheet P/BV P/ABV RoE (%) RoAA (%)

Axis Bank FY10 19.1 25.8 27.3 27.3 13.5 17.7 2.6 2.7 20.7 1.4FY11 17.3 32.0 27.0 27.0 10.6 14.3 2.2 2.2 22.1 1.5

Bank of Baroda FY10 13.0 15.7 18.6 18.6 6.2 5.8 1.3 1.3 20.4 1.0

FY11 18.4 24.7 19.2 19.2 5.2 4.7 1.1 1.1 20.4 1.0

Bank of India FY10 10.2 12.7 (6.8) (6.8) 6.0 6.5 1.3 1.3 20.0 1.2FY11 11.9 13.2 15.3 15.3 5.2 5.5 1.0 1.1 19.6 1.1

HDFC Bank FY10 12.9 13.5 30.3 22.8 22.0 29.8 3.1 3.2 16.6 1.5FY11 15.9 24.9 30.3 30.3 16.9 24.6 2.7 2.7 17.2 1.6

ICICI Bank FY10 (4.4) 7.1 2.2 2.2 21.6 21.9 1.5 1.5 7.5 1.0

FY11 0.7 20.8 28.1 28.1 16.8 18.6 1.7 1.8 9.2 1.2

Punjab National Bank FY10 10.7 18.0 14.8 14.8 6.2 7.5 1.4 1.4 22.2 1.3FY11 15.4 17.1 15.4 15.4 5.3 6.2 1.1 1.1 21.7 1.3

State Bank of India FY10 18.6 15.4 13.3 13.3 11.0 9.7 1.5 1.7 16.7 1.0

FY11 23.4 31.7 19.4 19.4 9.3 7.8 1.6 1.8 17.4 0.9

Union Bank of India FY10 18.3 10.5 6.2 6.2 5.8 5.4 1.2 1.3 19.3 1.0FY11 17.4 22.4 15.7 15.7 5.0 4.5 1.0 1.0 19.1 1.0

Yes Bank FY10 17.8 46.0 33.5 33.5 11.6 16.7 2.4 2.5 23.2 1.6FY11 28.8 34.0 32.6 32.6 8.8 12.8 1.9 1.9 24.2 1.7

SECTOR FY10 12.2 14.7 12.2 11.9 12.1 2.0 2.2 16.6 1.0

FY11 16.5 25.2 21.2 9.8 9.9 1.7 2.0 17.5 1.0

For SBI Rs 85 per share reduced for investment in subsidiaries from Book Value & Rs 339 per share reduced from the CMP for value of subsidiary

For ICICI Rs 55 per share reduced for investment in subsidiaries from Book Value & Rs 149 per share reduced from the CMP for value of subsidiary

Valuations

Abhijit [email protected]

+91 22 6632 2236

Bharat [email protected]

+91 22 6632 2242


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13

Sector View

Over Weight

Top Picks

BHEL

KEC

International

Hindustan Dorr

Oliver

Capital Goods




ABB* Reduce 678 68,370 5,474 25.8 9.4 68,528 5,160 24.3 16.3 77,357 6,002 28.3 18.3

Action Const. Acc 33 4,407 227 2.5 (1.6) 3,966 206 2.3 3.0 4,827 335 3.7 1.0

Areva T&D* Reduce 299 26,513 2,544 10.6 6.2 35,455 2,654 11.1 (31.9) 40,795 3,174 13.3 8.1

BHEL Acc 2,201 268,586 31,382 64.1 32.3 334,135 44,123 90.1 47.2 403,843 53,099 108.5 75.4

Crompton Greaves Reduce 282 87,373 5,599 15.3 12.2 94,710 6,066 16.5 9.4 104,566 6,773 18.5 11.9

Cummins NR 337 35,285 4,453 22.5 11.1 30,975 3,972 20.1 17.7 35,357 4,664 23.6 16.9

EMCO Acc 84 9,963 532 8.2 (7.5) 11,805 619 9.5 3.7 13,946 754 11.6 (4.8)

Hindustan Dorr Acc 127 5,133 302 7.8 (15.1) 7,497 532 13.7 (9.7) 9,965 719 18.5 1.7

Jyoti Structures BUY 138 17,243 797 9.8 (6.3) 21,037 993 12.1 (8.6) 25,770 1,330 16.3 (1.4)

KEC International Acc 457 34,274 1,163 23.6 15.7 40,167 1,982 40.2 (10.5) 46,777 2,381 48.3 3.7

Siemens** Reduce 455 97,296 4,760 14.1 24.0 93,404 5,460 16.2 8.9 103,679 6,128 18.2 8.4

Sujana Towers# Acc 25 7,477 461 9.8 (40.8) 6,320 217 4.6 (13.3) 8,224 281 6.0 (0.1)

Suzlon Energy Acc 88 262,588 13,253 7.3 (81.4) 217,328 9,311 5.4 18.4 259,086 15,325 9.0 3.3

Thermax NR 408 34,603 2,890 24.3 (4.1) 32,220 2,648 22.2 8.1 35,258 2,953 24.8 14.4

Voltas Acc 143 43,259 2,284 6.9 0.4 51,155 2,807 8.5 4.5 60,043 3,233 9.8 6.2

SECTOR 1,002,372 76,122 1,048,702 86,751 1,229,492 107,151

* Y/e Dec ** Y/e Sept

Financials

Apurva [email protected]

+91 22 6632 2257


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Sector View

Over Weight

Top Picks

BHEL

KEC

International

Hindustan Dorr

Oliver

Capital Goods



ABB* FY10 0.2 (5.7) (5.7) 27.8 2.1 19.1 2.0 21.9 23.0

FY11 12.9 16.3 16.3 23.9 1.9 16.1 1.8 21.0 21.8

Action Const. FY10 (10.0) (9.3) (9.3) 14.3 0.7 10.1 0.7 15.9 11.7

FY11 21.7 62.3 62.3 8.8 0.6 6.4 0.6 21.0 17.1

Areva T&D* FY10 33.7 4.3 4.3 26.9 2.0 16.4 2.2 32.1 20.8

FY11 15.1 19.6 19.6 22.5 1.8 14.1 1.9 30.1 19.3

BHEL FY10 24.4 40.6 40.6 24.4 3.2 15.4 2.9 29.9 29.9

FY11 20.9 20.3 20.3 20.3 2.7 12.3 2.4 28.9 28.9

Crompton Greaves FY10 8.4 8.3 8.3 17.1 1.1 9.8 1.1 25.7 21.4

FY11 10.4 11.7 11.7 15.3 1.0 8.6 1.0 22.9 20.4

Cummins FY10 (12.2) (10.8) (10.8) 16.8 2.2 13.9 2.1 24.3 24.2

FY11 14.1 17.4 17.4 14.3 1.9 11.6 1.8 23.9 24.0EMCO FY10 18.5 16.4 16.4 8.8 0.5 5.1 0.7 10.8 13.5

FY11 18.1 21.8 21.8 7.2 0.4 4.4 0.6 11.7 14.3

Hindustan Dorr FY10 46.0 76.4 76.4 9.3 0.7 6.3 0.7 28.3 23.1

FY11 32.9 35.1 35.1 6.9 0.5 5.2 0.6 30.8 23.2

Jyoti Structures FY10 22.0 24.5 24.5 11.3 0.5 6.3 0.7 16.7 19.7

FY11 22.5 33.9 33.9 8.5 0.4 5.2 0.6 17.9 21.3

KEC International FY10 17.2 70.5 70.5 11.4 0.6 6.6 0.7 26.7 20.0

FY11 16.5 20.1 20.1 9.5 0.5 5.7 0.6 25.3 19.9

Siemens** FY10 (4.0) 14.7 14.7 28.1 1.6 14.9 1.5 22.4 22.6

FY11 11.0 12.2 12.2 25.0 1.5 13.5 1.4 23.0 23.8

Sujana Towers# FY10 (15.5) (52.9) (52.9) 5.5 0.2 4.6 0.6 7.9 8.0

FY11 30.1 29.0 29.0 4.2 0.1 3.5 0.4 9.4 9.2

Suzlon Energy FY10 (17.2) (29.7) (25.8) 16.3 0.7 10.2 1.0 10.4 6.1

FY11 19.2 64.6 66.2 9.8 0.6 7.4 0.8 15.4 8.5

Thermax FY10 (6.9) (8.3) (8.3) 18.4 1.5 13.4 1.6 24.3 24.1

FY11 9.4 11.5 11.5 16.5 1.4 10.9 1.3 22.7 22.7

Voltas FY10 18.3 22.9 22.9 16.8 0.9 11.2 0.9 31.4 26.5

FY11 17.4 15.2 15.2 14.6 0.8 9.2 0.7 29.3 26.3

SECTOR FY10 4.6 14.0 22.0 1.8 13.5 1.8 23.4 16.6FY11 17.2 23.5 17.8 1.5 10.9 1.5 24.1 18.1

* Y/e Dec ** Y/e SeptApurva [email protected]

+91 22 6632 2257


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Under Weight

Top Picks

None

Cement




ACC* Sell 866 77,197 10,708 57.0 9.3 87,311 17,080 91.0 19.4 89,745 13,656 72.7 30.5

Ambuja Cement* Sell 105 62,347 11,346 7.4 (4.8) 71,244 12,474 8.2 7.6 70,106 13,811 9.1 10.7

Grasim Industries Acc 2,723 184,039 21,867 238.5 31.9 189,964 26,624 290.4 73.1 192,527 24,653 268.9 200.6

India Cement Reduce 141 34,279 4,850 17.2 (14.7) 37,354 5,544 19.6 26.4 38,100 4,579 16.2 14.5

Shree Cement Acc 1,626 27,150 6,084 174.6 93.4 33,585 7,478 214.6 96.7 35,318 7,879 226.2 272.0

Ultratech Cement Acc 769 63,831 9,781 78.6 38.4 71,063 12,493 100.4 56.6 68,791 8,187 65.8 10.0

SECTOR 448,843 64,636 490,521 81,693 494,587 72,766

* Y/e Dec

Financials

Kamlesh [email protected]

+91 22 6632 2237


Sales PAT EPS PER MC/Sales EV/EBIDTA EV/sales RoE (%) RoCE (%)

ACC* FY10 13.1 59.5 59.5 9.5 1.9 5.6 1.8 31.2 40.4

FY11 2.8 (20.0) (20.0) 11.9 1.8 6.7 1.7 21.1 27.7

Ambuja Cement* FY10 14.3 9.9 9.9 12.9 2.3 7.1 2.0 20.5 27.6

FY11 (1.6) 10.7 10.7 11.6 2.3 5.8 1.9 19.9 26.9

Grasim Industries FY10 3.2 21.8 21.8 9.4 1.3 4.7 1.4 21.0 23.0

FY11 1.3 (7.4) (7.4) 10.1 1.3 5.8 1.5 16.3 18.1

India Cement FY10 9.0 14.3 14.3 7.2 1.1 4.1 1.3 17.2 18.8

FY11 2.0 (17.4) (17.4) 8.7 1.0 3.8 1.2 12.3 15.7

Shree Cement FY10 23.7 22.9 22.9 7.6 1.7 4.0 1.7 46.8 33.3

FY11 5.2 5.4 5.4 7.2 1.6 4.4 1.6 34.7 29.8

Ultratech Cement FY10 11.3 27.7 27.7 7.7 1.3 4.4 1.4 29.7 28.8

FY11 (3.2) (34.5) (34.5) 11.7 1.4 6.4 1.6 15.9 17.2

SECTOR FY10 9.3 26.4 9.4 1.6 5.0 1.6 23.6 28.7FY11 0.8 (10.9) 10.5 1.5 5.7 1.6 17.9 23.4

* Y/e Dec


16/36

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Sector View

Equal Weight

Top Picks

IVRCL

Construction




Gammon India Reduce 161 25,272 776 8.8 (63.6) 28,937 535 6.1 (35.8) 33,274 458 5.2 (28.8)

GMR* Reduce 134 40,192 2,795 1.5 (5.1) 47,259 1,869 1.0 (35.8) 56,833 1,767 1.0 (25.8)

Hindustan Const. Reduce 106 33,138 1,253 4.9 (13.9) 40,276 1,024 3.4 (22.7) 50,041 1,249 4.1 (19.0)

IVRCL Acc 318 48,819 2,260 16.8 (58.5) 63,622 2,447 18.2 (67.6) 75,881 2,803 20.8 (58.9)

Larsen & Toubro# Acc 1,486 336,466 27,092 59.5 (48.4) 411,655 36,267 62.0 (30.2) 513,420 37,476 64.1 (24.8)

Nagarjuna Const. Reduce 131 41,514 1,535 6.7 (19.6) 47,945 1,738 7.6 (9.5) 56,326 2,044 8.9 (17.8)

Patel Engineering* Reduce 401 24,598 1,934 31.4 (29.8) 29,536 1,572 25.7 (70.8) 36,698 1,807 29.6 (135.0)

Punj Lloyd* Acc 238 119,861 (2,251) (7.4) 0.3 135,054 5,040 15.7 0.4 159,258 5,577 17.4 (27.1)

SECTOR 669,860 35,393 804,284 50,493 981,731 53,181

* Consolidated Note: IVRCL & Patel Engineering FY09/FY10 estimate Tax @34.0% # FY09 PAT incl. extra-ordinary income

Financials

Rupa [email protected]

+91 22 6632 2244


17/36

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Sector View

Equal Weight

Top Picks

IVRCL

Construction



Gammon India FY10 14.5 (31.0) (31.0) 26.7 0.5 11.2 0.9 4.1 9.7

FY11 15.0 (14.4) (14.5) 31.2 0.4 10.8 0.9 3.4 9.7

GMR* FY10 17.6 (33.1) (33.1) 130.3 5.2 31.4 8.7 0.7 1.4

FY11 20.3 (5.5) (5.5) 137.8 4.3 29.1 8.0 0.7 1.4

Hindustan Const. FY10 21.5 (18.3) (31.0) 31.5 0.8 9.7 1.2 8.2 13.1

FY11 24.2 21.9 21.9 25.8 0.6 8.6 1.1 8.3 14.0

IVRCL FY10 30.3 8.3 8.3 17.5 0.7 11.5 1.1 13.4 14.2

FY11 19.3 14.6 14.6 15.3 0.6 10.8 1.0 13.6 13.5

Larsen & Toubro# FY10 22.3 33.9 4.2 24.0 2.1 17.6 2.2 26.4 23.7

FY11 24.7 3.3 3.3 23.2 1.7 15.9 1.8 23.0 22.1

Nagarjuna Const. FY10 15.5 13.3 13.3 17.2 0.6 8.1 0.8 9.8 14.1

FY11 17.5 17.6 17.6 14.6 0.5 7.6 0.7 10.6 14.4

Patel Engineering* FY10 20.1 (18.7) (18.2) 15.6 0.8 9.4 1.4 14.0 15.1

FY11 24.2 14.9 15.3 13.5 0.7 8.5 1.3 13.7 16.2

Punj Lloyd* FY10 12.7 (323.9) (311.8) 15.2 0.6 9.2 0.9 17.9 17.9

FY11 17.9 10.7 10.7 13.7 0.5 8.3 0.8 16.8 17.6

SECTOR FY10 20.1 42.7 26.4 1.7 16.6 2.0 16.6 9.4FY11 22.1 5.3 25.1 1.4 15.1 1.8 15.1 8.3

* Consolidated Note: FY10IVRCL & Patel Engineering FY09/FY10 estimate Tax @34.0% # FY09 PAT incl. extra-ordinary income


+91 22 6632 2244


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India Infoline

Edelweiss

Capital

Shriram

Transport

Finance

Financial Services


+91 22 6632 2214



Reco CMP Tota l NII PAT EPS B V A B V Total NII PAT EPS B V A B V Tota l NII PAT EPS B V A B V

income i nc om e i nc om e

HDFC Acc 2,311 109,948 31,134 22,825 79.4 471.2 471.2 117,525 36,077 2 7,340 95.1 537.8 537.8 135,222 42,967 32,647 113.6 617.3 617.3

IDFC Acc 138 36,149 9,111 7,377 5.7 45.2 45.2 40,061 9,091 9,553 7.4 49.9 49.9 44,998 8,907 9,932 7.7 55.2 55.2

Po wer Fin. Corp. Acc 214 65,574 23,083 15,309 13.3 100.3 100.1 79,812 29,054 21,252 18.5 114.2 114.0 100,435 34,585 24,207 21.1 130.1 129.9

S hri ram Tranp. Fin. B uy 347 37,228 17,451 6,124 30.1 113.8 106.8 43,939 22,279 7,029 33.2 146.9 138.4 52,852 27,074 8,561 40.5 179.7 169.9

SECTOR 248,899 80,780 51,635 281,337 96,500 65,174 333,507 113,533 75,348

Financials




Edelwiess Acc 429 8,965 1,844 24.6 27.0 9,856 2,477 33.0 36.4 11,609 2,911 38.7 42.3

India Infoline Acc 135 9,606 1,448 4.9 6.4 12,482 2,169 6.9 8.2 15,698 2,909 8.6 10.0

Motilal Oswal Acc 151 4,583 925 6.5 7.7 6,064 1,381 9.7 11.3 7,711 1,815 12.8 14.5

Reliance Capital Acc 855 59,933 10,156 41.3 43.6 63,826 11,013 44.7 47.2 71,501 13,586 55.2 58.0

SECTOR 83,088 14,374 92,228 17,039 106,518 21,221

Financials


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19

Growth (%) Valuations (x)

Total inc. NII PAT EPS PER MC/balance sheet P/BV P/ABV RoE (%) RoAA (%)

HDFC FY10 6.9 15.9 19.8 19.8 18.9 54.0 3.0 3.0 18.9 2.5FY11 15.1 19.1 19.4 19.4 15.1 44.3 2.5 2.5 19.7 2.4

IDFC FY10 10.8 (0.2) 29.5 29.5 18.6 52.0 2.6 2.6 14.8 3.0

FY11 12.3 (2.0) 4.0 4.0 17.9 41.8 2.4 2.4 13.9 2.6

Power Fin. Corp. FY10 21.7 25.9 38.8 38.8 11.6 30.5 1.9 1.9 17.3 2.9FY11 25.8 19.0 13.9 13.9 10.2 23.8 1.6 1.7 17.3 2.6

Shriram Tranp. Fin. FY10 18.0 27.7 14.8 10.5 10.4 26.1 2.4 2.5 25.9 2.9FY11 20.3 21.5 21.8 21.8 8.6 20.7 1.9 2.0 24.8 2.9

SECTOR FY10 13.0 19.5 26.2 17.8 43.7 3.0 3.0 16.9 2.4FY11 18.5 17.7 15.6 15.4 35.1 2.6 2.7 17.1 2.3

Valuations


Sales PAT EPS PER P/BV EV/EBIDTA EV/sales RoE (%) RoCE (%)

Edelwiess FY10 9.9 34.3 34.2 13.0 1.4 9.7 5.2 11.1 8.9

FY11 17.8 17.5 17.3 11.1 1.2 8.5 4.6 12.2 8.8

India Infoline FY10 29.9 49.8 40.3 19.7 2.0 10.2 3.2 10.6 10.1

FY11 25.8 34.1 25.2 15.7 1.9 7.7 2.7 12.4 10.9

Motilal Oswal FY10 32.3 49.3 49.3 15.5 0.5 7.9 3.2 16.2 15.8

FY11 27.2 31.4 31.4 11.8 0.4 5.8 2.5 18.2 16.7

Reliance Capital FY10 6.5 8.4 8.4 19.1 2.5 12.8 5.4 14.0 9.5

FY11 12.0 23.4 23.4 15.5 2.2 11.4 5.0 15.3 9.8

SECTOR FY10 11.0 18.5 18.1 2.4 11.8 4.9 13.1 9.5FY11 15.5 24.5 14.7 2.1 10.2 4.4 14.5 9.9

Sector View

Over Weight

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India Infoline

Edelweiss

Capital

Shriram

Transport

Finance

Financial Services


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20/36

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Sector View

Equal Weight

Top Picks

TCS

Mphasis

Information Technology




Geometric Sell 42 5,981 (107) (1.7) (7.7) 5,333 176 2.8 12.1 5,781 335 5.4 (2.1)

HCL Tech* Acc 270 105,116 12,095 18.1 6.9 114,652 10,580 15.8 15.9 127,018 14,103 21.0 17.3

Infosys Reduce 2,040 216,930 59,880 104.4 79.2 220,385 60,513 105.5 120.7 244,320 61,531 107.3 99.3

KPIT Cummins Acc 55 7,932 659 8.4 29.0 6,635 703 8.9 5.2 6,900 876 11.1 11.7

Mphasis** BUY 528 19,065 2,954 14.1 0.7 42,989 8,914 42.5 27.7 51,482 9,540 45.5 35.0

Patni Computer# Acc 405 31,151 4,386 34.2 30.2 31,467 4,325 33.7 30.1 33,313 5,150 40.1 31.6

Rolta India* Acc 161 13,728 2,406 14.8 (15.5) 14,171 1,956 12.0 14.8 15,875 2,310 14.2 17.3

Tanla Solutions NR 54 6,871 2,003 20.0 (2.1) 5,739 940 9.4 (25.2) 6,717 1,183 11.8 (30.6)

Tata Elxsi NR 171 4,206 582 18.7 23.8 4,296 748 24.0 29.8 4,818 714 22.9 27.4

TCS Acc 521 278,132 51,720 26.4 26.5 289,690 56,637 28.9 27.2 327,301 65,132 33.3 22.5

Tech Mahindra Reduce 843 44,647 9,519 72.8 91.3 46,257 5,844 44.7 51.8 52,412 7,098 54.3 49.3

Wipro Reduce 510 254,564 34,480 23.7 26.8 257,555 40,505 27.8 (0.3) 281,502 42,247 29.0 28.8

SECTOR 988,322 180,577 1,039,169 191,840 1,157,439 210,219

* Y/e June ** Y/e Oct # Y/e Dec

Financials


+91 22 6632 2214


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Information Technology



Geometric FY10 (10.8) (265.0) (265.0) 14.8 0.5 3.8 0.5 10.6 8.2

FY11 8.4 89.8 89.8 7.8 0.5 4.1 0.6 16.5 12.4

HCL Tech* FY10 9.1 (12.5) (12.5) 17.1 1.6 5.2 1.1 19.6 13.4

FY11 10.8 33.3 33.2 12.9 1.4 7.2 1.5 21.3 16.7

Infosys FY10 1.6 1.1 1.1 19.3 5.3 11.5 3.8 29.7 29.7

FY11 10.9 1.7 1.7 19.0 4.8 13.6 4.4 25.7 25.7

KPIT Cummins FY10 (16.3) 6.8 6.8 6.1 0.7 2.6 0.5 19.7 15.2

FY11 4.0 24.6 24.6 4.9 0.6 2.7 0.6 20.6 16.4

Mphasis** FY10 125.5 201.7 201.4 12.4 2.6 3.0 0.8 51.9 50.3

FY11 19.8 7.0 7.0 11.6 2.2 2.9 0.8 44.1 38.5

Patni Computer# FY10 1.0 (1.4) (1.4) 12.0 1.7 1.7 0.3 15.9 13.0

FY11 5.9 19.1 19.1 10.1 1.6 1.5 0.3 17.0 13.7

Rolta India* FY10 3.2 (18.7) (18.7) 13.4 1.9 6.2 2.1 17.0 12.0

FY11 12.0 18.1 18.1 11.4 1.7 5.1 1.8 18.0 12.6

Tanla Solutions FY10 (16.5) (53.1) (53.1) 5.7 0.9 1.2 0.4 11.7 11.6

FY11 17.0 25.8 25.8 4.6 0.8 1.4 0.5 12.5 12.4

Tata Elxsi FY10 2.2 28.7 28.7 7.1 1.2 3.9 1.0 43.3 33.1

FY11 12.1 (4.6) (4.6) 7.5 1.1 4.4 1.1 32.9 26.7

TCS FY10 4.2 9.5 9.5 18.0 3.5 11.0 2.8 32.3 30.5

FY11 13.0 15.0 15.0 15.6 3.1 11.7 3.1 30.2 28.8

Tech Mahindra FY10 3.6 (38.6) (38.6) 18.9 2.4 10.3 2.7 29.6 23.7

FY11 13.3 21.5 21.5 15.5 2.1 7.6 1.9 28.3 18.7

Wipro FY10 1.2 17.5 17.5 18.3 2.9 12.6 2.4 24.5 21.3

FY11 9.3 4.3 4.3 17.6 2.6 13.2 2.5 21.7 19.2

SECTOR FY10 5.1 6.2 17.9 3.3 10.1 2.5 31.2 27.5FY11 11.4 9.6 16.3 3.0 10.9 2.7 26.4 23.4

* Y/e June ** Y/e Oct # Y/e Dec

Sector View

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Top Picks

TCS

Mphasis


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Media

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Over Weight

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Zee

Entertainment

Jagran

Prakashan

Sun TV


+91 22 6632 2232

Financials Last Year (FY09) 1-year forward (FY10E) 2-year forward (FY11E)



Ent. Network Reduce 190 4,271 (603) (12.7) 5.2 4,464 (201) (4.2) (13.4) 4,512 123 2.6 3.5

HT Media Reduce 108 13,466 9 0.0 (3.4) 14,423 1,083 4.6 5.4 15,532 1,485 6.3 7.1

Jagran Prakashan Acc 100 8,234 916 3.0 (1.7) 9,110 1,496 5.0 0.3 10,269 1,707 5.7 0.8

PVR Sell 113 3,554 87 3.8 (76.4) 3,838 32 1.4 (37.5) 5,610 154 6.7 (1.9)

Sun TV Acc 280 10,394 3,683 9.3 5.7 12,587 4,442 11.3 4.3 14,887 5,230 13.3 7.3

TV Today Reduce 95 2,500 336 5.7 (0.5) 2,788 413 7.0 0.7 3,026 489 8.3 10.9

TV-18 Acc 112 4,898 (1,664) (13.9) (14.1) 6,123 (758) (6.3) (6.9) 7,378 (51) (0.4) (0.8)

UTV Software Reduce 452 6,066 356 8.8 (313.4) 8,619 196 4.3 (16.2) 11,775 696 15.4 9.6

Zee Entertainment Acc 190 21,773 3,502 8.1 4.6 22,444 4,240 9.8 3.3 24,702 5,051 11.6 6.0

Zee News Acc 42 5,221 447 1.9 (4.2) 5,850 470 2.0 (5.5) 6,836 614 2.6 0.9

SECTOR 80,375 7,071 90,246 11,412 104,527 15,498


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23



Ent. Network FY10 4.5 (66.6) (66.6) (44.9) 2.0 30.8 2.7 (6.0) (1.8)

FY11 1.1 (160.9) (160.9) 73.7 2.0 14.8 2.5 3.7 3.5

HT Media FY10 7.1 23.3 1.7 12.0 1.9 12.1 9.1

FY11 7.7 37.1 37.1 17.0 1.6 7.3 1.3 14.6 11.9

Jagran Prakashan FY10 10.6 63.2 63.2 20.1 3.3 9.6 3.0 25.3 16.7

FY11 12.7 14.2 14.2 17.6 2.9 9.1 2.9 26.1 18.0

PVR FY10 8.0 (63.6) (63.6) 81.8 0.7 9.1 1.0 1.0 2.6

FY11 46.2 385.9 385.9 16.8 0.5 4.1 0.8 4.6 4.9

Sun TV FY10 21.1 20.6 20.6 24.9 8.8 10.7 7.6 24.0 19.7

FY11 18.3 17.7 17.7 21.1 7.4 9.4 6.7 24.7 21.3

TV Today FY10 11.5 23.2 23.2 13.6 2.0 6.3 1.4 12.1 12.1

FY11 8.5 18.3 18.3 11.5 1.9 4.9 1.1 12.9 12.9

TV-18 FY10 25.0 (54.4) (54.4) (17.7) 2.2 166.0 3.2 (23.3) (4.4)

FY11 20.5 (93.3) (93.3) (265.2) 1.8 22.9 2.2 (1.8) 2.6

UTV Software FY10 42.1 (45.1) (50.6) 104.3 2.4 38.8 1.8 1.2 1.4

FY11 36.6 255.3 255.3 29.4 1.7 17.7 1.8 3.6 3.3

Zee Entertainment FY10 3.1 21.1 21.1 19.5 3.7 14.1 3.7 12.4 11.4

FY11 10.1 19.1 19.2 16.3 3.3 11.2 3.2 13.4 12.5

Zee News FY10 12.1 5.0 5.0 21.3 1.7 11.1 2.0 18.3 12.8

FY11 16.9 30.6 30.6 16.3 1.5 9.0 1.7 20.7 15.0

SECTOR FY10 12.3 61.4 27.1 3.4 13.1 3.3 11.3 9.6FY11 15.8 35.8 20.0 3.0 10.1 2.8 13.9 11.7

Media

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24/36

24

Sector View

Under Weight

Top Picks

Sterlite

Industries

Metals




Hindustan Zinc NR 739 56,803 27,276 64.6 31.2 60,685 30,712 72.7 16.1 70,206 36,292 85.9 72.2

Jindal Steel & PowerReduce 2,971 108,443 30,072 188.8 40.4 111,232 41,709 261.9 50.0 127,441 52,271 328.2 (22.2)

JSW Steel Acc 745 158,863 8,079 43.2 (72.2) 177,709 13,093 68.2 12.5 226,141 24,249 127.8 (118.1)

Monnet Ispat Acc 287 15,487 2,160 43.9 (0.5) 13,747 2,799 56.8 57.8 15,632 3,061 62.2 70.9

Sterlite Industries Acc 670 211,442 35,400 50.0 (53.8) 189,995 30,923 36.8 (8.5) 262,156 67,371 80.2 48.1

Tata steel Reduce 484 1,456,863 89,438 108.9 83.3 1,174,565 33,859 37.6 37.9 1,209,802 44,939 50.7 47.9

SECTOR 2,007,901 192,424 1,727,933 153,094 1,911,379 228,184



Hindustan Zinc FY10 6.8 12.6 12.6 10.2 5.1 6.2 3.4 19.4 19.2

FY11 15.7 18.2 18.2 8.6 4.4 4.3 2.4 19.2 20.8

Jindal Steel & Power FY10 2.6 38.7 38.7 11.3 4.1 8.7 4.7 47.6 40.3

FY11 14.6 25.3 25.3 9.1 3.6 7.1 4.2 39.6 38.0

JSW Steel FY10 11.9 62.1 57.9 10.9 0.8 7.3 1.8 15.8 12.0

FY11 27.3 85.2 87.5 5.8 0.6 5.7 1.5 24.7 15.8

Monnet Ispat FY10 (11.2) 29.6 29.6 5.1 1.0 3.4 1.2 18.5 17.3

FY11 13.7 9.4 9.4 4.6 0.9 2.6 0.8 17.2 16.6

Sterlite Industries FY10 (10.1) (12.6) (26.4) 18.2 3.0 10.5 3.0 10.0 11.2FY11 38.0 117.9 117.9 8.4 2.1 5.4 2.1 17.2 17.1

Tata steel FY10 (19.4) (62.1) (65.5) 12.9 0.4 8.4 0.8 10.0 7.3

FY11 3.0 32.7 34.9 9.5 0.4 7.0 0.7 11.1 8.9

SECTOR FY10 (13.9) (20.4) 12.5 1.1 8.3 1.5 15.5 9.1FY11 10.6 49.0 8.4 1.0 6.1 1.3 18.4 11.2

Kamlesh [email protected]

+91 22 6632 2237


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Sector View

Over Weight

Top Picks

Great Offshore

Offshore, Ship Building & Ports




ABG Shipyard Acc 186 13,539 1,307 23.8 (36.4) 19,499 1,262 23.0 (28.0) 24,499 1,772 32.3 41.6

Bharati Shipyard BUY 159 9,341 768 27.9 (119.0) 12,513 828 30.0 (68.6) 17,063 1,155 41.9 (61.6)

Aban Offshore Reduce 1,173 31,835 5,548 146.8 68.8 34,047 4,944 130.8 137.6 35,925 5,226 138.3 238.5

Garware Offshore Acc 153 1,783 425 17.9 30.3 2,333 623 26.1 (60.6) 2,896 743 31.2 40.7

Gateway DistriparksAcc 91 4,618 805 7.5 (8.1) 4,673 769 7.1 1.3 5,564 971 9.0 1.3

Great Offshore Acc 537 11,393 2,751 74.1 (15.2) 13,009 2,649 71.3 (44.7) 14,294 3,033 81.7 44.6

Mundra Port & SEZ Acc 554 11,949 4,325 10.8 10.7 14,421 6,669 16.6 (17.8) 21,984 11,688 29.2 24.7

SECTOR 84,459 15,929 100,494 17,744 122,225 24,589



ABG Shipyard FY10 44.0 (3.4) (3.4) 8.1 0.5 4.8 0.9 21.1 9.5

FY11 25.6 40.5 40.5 5.8 0.4 4.0 0.8 24.4 10.1

Bharati Shipyard FY10 34.0 7.8 7.8 5.3 0.4 3.3 0.6 15.6 9.1

FY11 36.4 39.5 39.5 3.8 0.3 2.2 0.4 18.8 10.4

Aban Offshore FY10 6.9 (10.9) (10.9) 9.0 1.3 8.6 4.5 15.6 6.2

FY11 5.5 5.7 5.7 8.5 1.2 7.2 4.1 21.0 7.1

Garware Offshore FY10 30.8 46.4 46.4 5.8 1.6 6.8 3.8 24.0 12.6

FY11 24.1 19.4 19.4 4.9 1.3 5.9 3.3 23.3 13.9

Gateway Distriparks FY10 1.2 (4.4) (4.4) 12.7 2.1 7.4 2.4 10.4 12.2

FY11 19.1 26.3 26.3 10.0 1.8 6.3 2.1 12.2 13.8

Great Offshore FY10 14.2 (3.7) (3.7) 7.5 1.5 4.8 2.1 28.0 15.2

FY11 9.9 14.5 14.5 6.6 1.4 4.5 1.9 25.2 14.5

Mundra Port & SEZ FY10 20.7 54.2 54.2 33.3 15.4 24.0 16.7 19.4 12.9

FY11 52.4 75.2 75.2 19.0 10.1 15.3 10.9 27.6 18.4

SECTOR FY10 19.0 11.4 17.7 3.1 11.0 4.7 20.6 9.0FY11 21.6 38.6 12.8 2.6 8.6 3.8 23.7 10.8

Kejal [email protected]

+91 22 6632 2246


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26

Sector View

Equal Weight

Top Picks

Reliance

Industries

BPCL

Indraprastha

Gas

Oil & Gas




BPCL (cons.) Acc 522 1,365,571 6,338 17.5 12.0 1,010,959 19,513 54.0 28.1 1,159,526 10,886 30.1 (29.9)

GAIL# Reduce 342 239,533 28,037 22.1 10.7 255,267 31,273 24.7 4.4 299,408 34,422 27.1 9.2

Guj. State PetronetReduce 75 4,875 1,234 2.2 (6.1) 8,404 1,773 3.2 (7.3) 10,129 2,114 3.8 (0.3)

Gujarat Gas** Reduce 366 13,013 1,606 24.9 20.8 14,625 1,655 25.6 15.3 16,013 1,866 28.9 18.7

HPCL (cons.) Acc 367 1,290,546 7,574 22.4 27.8 1,057,984 14,682 43.4 90.6 1,221,883 6,563 19.4 (50.2)

Indraprastha Gas Buy 172 8,528 1,725 12.3 3.6 11,088 1,922 13.7 (14.5) 16,035 2,549 18.2 (7.6)

ONGC (cons.) Reduce 1,220 1,052,567 197,520 92.3 137.2 962,046 201,960 94.4 107.9 1,035,162 227,627 106.4 112.7

Petronet LNG Reduce 72 84,287 5,184 6.9 (6.6) 128,189 5,428 7.2 (0.6) 149,871 6,394 8.5 (2.9)

Reliance Inds.* (cons.)Acc 2,034 1,466,086 156,727 95.4 78.0 1,978,686 212,518 129.4 101.3 2,377,557 266,739 162.4 164.0

SECTOR 5,525,005 405,945 5,427,248 490,724 6,285,583 559,161

* Equity increase assumed; warrants and RPL merger ** Y/e Dec # Standalone

Rohit [email protected]

+91 22 6632 2241


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BPCL FY10 (26.0) 207.9 207.9 9.7 0.2 6.5 0.3 13.8 7.9

FY11 14.7 (44.2) (44.2) 17.3 0.2 8.2 0.3 7.1 5.4

GAIL# FY10 6.6 11.5 11.5 13.9 1.7 8.7 1.6 19.9 17.4

FY11 17.3 10.1 10.1 12.6 1.5 8.0 1.3 19.4 17.2

Guj. State Petronet FY10 72.4 43.7 43.7 23.8 5.0 6.4 5.8 13.8 9.8

FY11 20.5 19.2 19.2 19.9 4.2 5.4 4.9 14.6 9.4

Gujarat Gas** FY10 12.4 3.0 3.0 14.3 1.6 7.2 1.3 21.3 16.9

FY11 9.5 12.8 12.9 12.7 1.5 6.0 1.2 20.2 16.3

HPCL FY10 (18.0) 93.9 93.9 8.5 0.1 6.5 0.2 12.3 8.3

FY11 15.5 (55.3) (55.3) 18.9 0.1 9.5 0.2 5.2 5.5

Indraprastha Gas FY10 30.0 11.4 11.4 12.6 2.2 5.0 1.8 25.7 23.6

FY11 44.6 32.6 32.6 9.5 1.5 3.9 1.3 28.2 24.2

ONGC (cons.) FY10 (8.6) 2.2 2.2 12.9 2.7 5.6 2.4 21.1 16.7

FY11 7.6 12.7 12.7 11.5 2.5 5.2 2.2 20.9 17.0

Petronet LNG FY10 52.1 4.7 4.7 9.9 0.4 5.3 0.5 24.9 14.3

FY11 16.9 17.8 17.8 8.4 0.4 4.8 0.4 24.4 14.1

Reliance Inds.* (cons.)FY10 35.0 35.6 35.6 15.7 1.6 8.6 1.8 17.2 14.2

FY11 20.2 25.5 25.5 12.5 1.3 6.8 1.4 18.4 15.2

SECTOR FY10 (1.8) 20.9 13.3 1.2 7.1 1.2 19.5 14.7

FY11 15.8 13.9 11.6 1.0 6.2 1.0 19.3 15.0

* Equity increase assumed; warrants and RPL merger ** Y/e Dec # Standalone

Sector View

Equal Weight

Top Picks

Reliance

Industries

BPCL

Indraprastha

Gas

Oil & Gas

Rohit [email protected]

+91 22 6632 2241


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28

Sector View

Equal Weight

Top Picks

Dishman

Pharma

Lupin

Pharmaceuticals




Ankur Drugs Acc 150 9,775 820 31.6 12.0 11,818 1,052 40.5 15.4 14,000 1,422 54.7 16.6

Cipla Acc 282 52,706 9,251 11.9 4.3 60,840 11,126 14.3 7.7 72,764 12,443 16.0 10.9

Dishman Pharma BUY 206 10,671 1,468 18.2 5.6 12,339 1,803 22.3 19.6 15,020 2,246 27.8 31.1

GSK Pharma* Acc 1,434 17,122 4,629 54.7 113.0 18,790 5,165 61.0 127.8 20,764 5,717 67.5 158.7

Lupin BUY 979 38,666 5,016 57.0 9.4 46,139 6,463 73.0 33.3 55,527 8,174 92.4 4.0

Pfizer** Acc 787 7,047 1,368 45.8 256.1 7,933 1,598 53.6 289.0 9,083 1,966 65.9 308.2

Ranbaxy* Reduce 296 74,472 8,009 16.8 53.8 69,751 5,641 11.8 103.9 85,700 14,054 29.4 92.4

Sun Pharma Acc 1,223 42,723 18,119 90.7 160.1 37,429 11,723 60.8 171.7 42,141 13,922 71.8 242.1SECTOR 253,182 48,680 265,039 44,571 314,999 59,944

*December ending

**November ending

Tushar [email protected]

+91 22 6632 2238


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29

Sector View

Equal Weight

Top Picks

Dishman

Pharma

Lupin

Pharmaceuticals



Ankur Drugs FY10 20.9 28.2 28.2 3.7 0.3 4.2 0.7 19.9 16.9

FY11 18.5 35.2 35.2 2.8 0.3 4.2 0.6 22.1 18.5

Cipla FY10 15.4 20.3 20.3 19.7 3.6 18.6 3.7 22.9 20.4

FY11 19.6 11.8 11.8 17.6 3.0 18.6 3.1 21.7 19.6

Dishman Pharma FY10 15.6 22.9 22.9 9.2 1.3 9.0 1.9 20.7 13.9

FY11 21.7 24.6 24.6 7.4 1.1 9.0 1.6 20.8 15.0

GSK Pharma* FY10 9.7 11.6 11.6 23.5 6.5 19.8 6.5 30.5 30.9

FY11 10.5 10.7 10.7 21.2 5.8 19.8 5.9 29.7 30.1

Lupin FY10 19.3 28.9 28.1 13.4 1.9 13.3 2.1 38.6 23.2

FY11 20.3 26.5 26.6 10.6 1.6 13.3 1.8 36.6 24.9

Pfizer** FY10 12.6 16.9 16.9 14.7 3.0 14.8 2.8 16.7 16.9

FY11 14.5 23.0 23.0 11.9 2.6 14.8 2.5 18.2 18.4

Ranbaxy* FY10 (6.3) (29.6) (29.6) 25.1 0.0 13.0 0.6 7.9 5.9

FY11 22.9 149.1 149.1 10.1 0.0 13.0 0.5 15.0 11.5

Sun Pharma FY10 (12.4) (35.3) (32.9) 20.1 6.3 12.8 6.4 17.4 17.1

FY11 12.6 18.8 18.0 17.0 5.6 12.8 5.7 17.9 17.6

SECTOR FY10 4.7 (8.4) 15.9 2.7 14.6 2.9 22.4 17.0FY11 18.9 34.5 14.4 2.7 14.6 2.8 24.0 19.2

*December ending

**November ending


+91 22 6632 2238


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Sector View

Under Weight

Top Picks

None

Power




NTPC Reduce 206 441,261 82,013 9.9 1.3 506,574 89,092 10.8 (5.9) 562,030 94,456 11.5 (5.3)

Reliance Power Acc 163 - 2,445 1.0 17.9 - 3,570 1.5 12.4 10,062 2,306 1.0 1.5

SECTOR 441,261 84,458 506,574 92,662 572,092 96,762


Sales PAT EPS PER MC/sales EV/EBIDTA P/BV RoE (%) RoCE (%)

NTPC FY10 14.8 8.6 8.6 19.1 3.4 13.4 2.7 14.8 13.6

FY11 10.9 6.0 6.0 18.0 3.0 12.7 2.5 14.4 13.2

Relaince Power FY10 46.0 46.0 109.2 (394.9) 2.8 0.6 (0.1)

FY11 (35.4) (35.4) 169.1 38.7 198.1 2.7 0.4 0.2

SECTOR FY10 14.8 9.7 22.6 4.1 17.1 4.8 12.5 8.9FY11 12.9 4.4 21.6 3.7 16.2 4.7 12.1 7.9


+91 22 6632 2244


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31

Sector View

Equal Weight

Top Picks

HDIL

Real Estate




Anantraj Inds Acc 137 2,508 2,073 7.0 5.4 6,457 2,761 9.4 32.0 10,545 4,387 14.9 57.7

HDIL Acc 295 17,284 7,865 28.6 (44.8) 15,299 6,861 18.5 16.8 14,224 5,341 14.4 16.8

Peninsula Land Acc 79 5,656 1,472 5.3 13.4 10,752 3,114 11.1 28.8 11,074 2,970 10.6 19.0

SECTOR 25,448 11,410 32,508 12,735 35,843 12,699



Anantraj Inds FY10 157.5 33.2 33.2 14.7 6.3 8.8 6.1 8.7 12.6

FY11 63.3 58.9 58.9 9.2 3.8 8.8 3.7 12.6 17.8

HDIL FY10 (11.5) (12.8) (35.4) 16.0 5.3 7.2 6.2 11.5 10.6

FY11 (7.0) (22.1) (22.1) 20.6 5.7 7.2 6.6 6.9 7.6

Peninsula Land FY10 90.1 111.6 111.6 7.1 2.0 6.1 2.2 26.4 27.3

FY11 3.0 (4.6) (4.6) 7.4 2.0 6.1 2.2 20.2 21.7

SECTOR FY10 27.7 11.6 11.3 4.4 7.3 4.8 12.4 10.6FY11 10.3 (0.3) 13.6 4.8 8.4 5.1 9.7 7.9

Kejal [email protected]

+91 22 6632 2246


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32

Sector View

Over Weight

Top Picks

Shree Renuka

Sugars

Sugar

Financials Last Year (FY08) 1-year forward (FY09) 2-year forward (FY10E)



Bajaj Hindusthan Acc 187 20,701 (1,951) (11.1) 11.0 23,599 1,646 7.6 2.0 28,862 1,938 11.0 45.5

Balrampur Chini BUY 120 14,909 783 3.1 1.5 16,918 2,313 9.1 14.1 21,374 3,246 12.7 15.1

Shree Renuka SugarsBUY 178 21,143 1,357 4.1 0.8 27,850 3,838 11.5 26.7 43,739 5,655 16.9 26.1

SECTOR 56,753 189 68,367 7,797 93,975 10,839

* All Cos. Y/e Sept


Sales PAT EPS PER MC/sales EV/EBIDTA EV/sales RoE (%) RoCE (%)Bajaj Hindusthan FY09 14.0 (184.3) (168.1) 24.6 1.4 10.7 2.5 12.2 7.8

FY10 22.3 17.7 44.5 17.0 1.1 5.5 1.2 8.6 8.1

Balrampur Chini FY09 13.5 195.5 195.5 13.2 1.8 8.1 2.5 19.2 12.4

FY10 26.3 40.3 40.3 9.4 1.4 6.5 1.9 21.7 15.0

Shree Renuka Sugars FY09 31.7 182.8 182.8 15.5 1.9 7.8 1.9 28.9 19.7

FY10 57.1 47.3 47.3 10.5 1.2 5.6 1.2 26.3 20.2

SECTOR FY09 20.5 4,036.4 14.9 1.7 8.8 2.2 20.1 11.2FY10 37.5 39.0 10.7 1.2 5.8 1.3 18.3 12.5

* All Cos. Y/e Sept


+91 22 6632 2238


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33

Sector View

Over Weight

Top Picks

Bharti Airtel

Idea Cellular

Telecom

Valuations Growth (%) Valuations (x)Sales PAT EPS PER MC/sales EV/EBIDTA EV/sales RoE (%) RoCE (%)

Bharti Airtel FY10 17.8 17.2 17.2 15.8 3.6 8.9 3.6 28.2 22.5

FY11 12.2 10.0 10.0 14.4 3.2 7.5 3.2 24.0 20.6

Idea Cellular FY10 29.9 31.1 31.1 21.6 1.9 9.4 2.7 7.7 6.6

FY11 26.6 30.1 30.1 16.6 1.5 7.4 2.0 9.2 8.1

Reliance Comm. FY10 24.9 (5.9) (5.9) 9.6 1.9 7.5 3.0 15.2 8.7

FY11 11.7 10.4 10.4 8.7 1.7 6.4 2.6 14.6 9.2

Tulip Telecom FY10 20.1 9.9 9.9 11.9 1.5 8.4 1.9 26.9 17.1

FY11 22.1 21.6 21.6 9.8 1.4 6.6 1.6 22.0 17.8

SECTOR FY10 21.9 9.1 14.1 2.7 8.5 3.3 19.2 11.9

FY11 14.4 11.7 12.6 2.4 7.1 2.8 17.9 11.8

Nishna [email protected]

+91 22 6632 2259




Bharti Airtel Acc 408 369,615 84,699 22.0 (15.6) 435,420 99,301 25.8 2.6 488,418 109,238 28.4 12.4

Idea Cellular* Acc 78 101,498 9,009 2.8 (25.3) 131,849 11,812 3.6 (21.6) 166,946 15,372 4.7 (4.2)

Reliance Comm. Acc 259 229,411 59,082 28.6 (71.8) 286,630 55,605 26.9 (18.7) 320,068 61,375 29.7 15.3

Tulip Telecom Acc 1,002 16,266 2,525 76.8 (152.1) 19,529 2,776 84.4 (23.4) 23,846 3,376 102.7 77.0

SECTOR 716,790 155,315 873,429 169,493 999,277 189,363

* Consolidated with Sprice

Financials


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Others

Top Picks

Ess Dee

Aluminium




Bhagwati Banquets

& Hotels Acc 35 668 150 4.1 0.8 1,897 422 11.5 1.5 2,353 528 14.3 3.0

Bombay Rayon

Fashions BUY 183 16,735 1,836 26.6 (17.7) 26,970 3,927 56.8 16.4

Country Club Acc 16 4,038 652 7.8 2.0 4,719 417 5.0 20.9 6,228 441 5.2 30.8

Ess Dee Aluminium Acc 273 4,515 683 10.0 4.0 7,981 1,186 10.0 9.0 9,012 1,463 10.0 36.5

FAG Bearings India* Acc 452 7,600 999 60.1 58.3 8,823 1,124 67.7 65.8 10,112 1,288 77.5 73.2

Kansai Nerolac

Paints Reduce 758 13,665 1,004 37.9 8.5 14,773 1,138 42.9 15.1 16,048 1,286 48.4 (7.8)

Parekh Aluminex Acc 100 4,163 354 22.9 7.7 5,580 551 35.6 10.7 6,453 712 46.0 25.4

Phillips Carbon Black BUY 132 11,647 (652) (23.1) 25.3 11,489 853 30.2 13.1 13,805 1,180 41.8 17.5

SECTOR 63,031 5,026 82,233 9,619 64,010 6,898

* Y/e Dec ** Y/e Jun

Financials


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Bhagwati Banquets& Hotels FY10 184.2 181.8 181.8 3.1 0.4 3.2 0.9 21.4 17.3

FY11 24.0 25.0 25.0 2.5 0.4 3.2 0.7 21.8 17.0

Bombay Rayon

Fashions FY10 61.2 113.9 113.9 3.2 0.5 2.9 0.8 29.7 18.1

FY11

Country Club FY10 16.9 (36.1) (36.1) 3.2 0.3 1.6 0.4 4.9 7.4

FY11 32.0 5.7 5.7 3.1 0.2 1.6 0.3 4.6 7.0

Ess Dee Aluminium FY10 76.8 73.6 0.0 27.3 1.1 5.5 1.3 47.8 23.2

FY11 12.9 23.4 0.0 27.3 1.0 5.5 1.1 66.7 23.0

FAG Bearings India* FY10 16.1 12.6 12.6 6.7 0.5 2.4 0.5 24.7 23.8

FY11 14.6 14.6 14.6 5.8 0.4 2.4 0.4 22.7 21.9

Kansai NerolacPaints FY10 8.1 13.4 13.1 17.7 0.8 7.5 0.9 16.6 11.6FY11 8.6 13.1 12.8 15.7 0.8 7.5 0.9 16.9 11.8

Parekh Aluminex FY10 34.0 55.6 55.6 2.8 0.2 1.9 0.3 18.2 18.1FY11 15.6 29.1 29.1 2.2 0.1 1.9 0.3 20.1 20.0

Phillips Carbon Black FY10 (1.4) (230.8) (230.8) 4.4 0.3 4.5 0.6 39.9 17.1FY11 20.2 38.2 38.2 3.2 0.2 4.5 0.5 38.9 20.2

SECTOR FY10 31.1 86.3 4.4 0.5 3.7 0.7 21.5 15.1FY11 (30.6) (32.5) 17.2 1.9 11.0 2.0 20.1 15.3

* Y/e Dec ** Y/e Jun

Others

Top Picks

Ess Dee

Aluminium


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This document has been prepared by the Research Division of Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. Mumbai, India (PL) and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document

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PLs Recommendation Scale

BUY : Over 15% Outperformance to Sensex over 12-months Accumulate : Outperformance to Sensex over 12-months

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Rating Distribution of Research Coverage

9.7%

59.7%

27.4%

3.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Buy Accumulate Reduce Sell

%o

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Prabhudas Liladhar - earning guide

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