Ppp Release Mact 1102

7/31/2019 Ppp Release Mact 1102

1/25

Phone: 888 621-6988Web:

www.publicpolicypolling.com

Public Policy Polling3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 2, 2012

INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312

IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE [email protected], OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH

OF THE PRESS RELEASE

Democrats set to win Massachusetts, Connecticut Senate races

Raleigh, N.C. PPP's final polls in Massachusetts and Connecticut find that Democrats

are likely to pick up the Senate seat in the former and hold onto the open seat in the latter.Elizabeth Warren leads Scott Brown 52-46 in the Massachusetts contest, while Chris

Murphy has a 52-43 advantage over Linda McMahon in Connecticut.

Scott Brown has a 52/36 approval rating. Usually Senators with those kinds of approval

numbers are safe for reelection. But Warren needed to do 2 things in this campaign:

solidify the Democratic vote behind her and reduce Brown's advantage withindependents. She's succeeded on both of those fronts. 84% of Democrats are planning to

vote for her, only slightly less than the 88% of Republicans Brown's winning. And

Warren's deficit with independents is only 21 points at 59-38. Our final poll of the 2010Massachusetts Senate special election found Brown defeating Martha Coakley 64-32 with

them so Warren's really made up a fair amount of ground on that front.

In Connecticut our final poll finds Chris Murphy with his largest lead all year at 9 points.He's increased his advantage by 5 points since two weeks ago when he was ahead just 48-

44. Linda McMahon, already unpopular, has just become more disliked by voters in the

state over the last couple weeks. Only 37% have a favorable opinion of her to 52% with

an unfavorable one.

In August polling found the Democratic candidates trailing in both of these New

England Senate races, said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. But

Elizabeth Warren and Chris Murphy have closed strongly and appear to be in a safeposition for victory, which will go a long way toward helping their party keep its

majority.

Barack Obama leads the Presidential race comfortably in both of these states, 57/42 in

Massachusetts and 55/42 in Connecticut. But both of those leads are down considerablyfrom his margin of victory in 2008- he's dropped 11 points from his 26 point win in

Massachusetts and 10 points from his 23 point win in Connecticut.

PPP surveyed 1,089 likely voters in Massachusetts and 1,220 in Connecticut on

November 1st

and 2nd. The margin of error for MA is +/-3.0% and for CT its +/-2.8%.This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP

surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.


2/25

November 1-2, 2012Survey of 1,089 likely voters


3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

[email protected] / 888 621-6988



Massachusetts Survey Results

Q1 The candidates for President are DemocratBarack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. Ifthe election was today, who would you votefor?

57%Barack Obama................................................

42%Mitt Romney....................................................

2%Undecided.......................................................

Q2 The candidates for Senate are DemocratElizabeth Warren and Republican Scott Brown.If the election was today, who would you votefor?

52%Elizabeth Warren ............................................

46%Scott Brown ....................................................

2%Undecided.......................................................

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of PresidentBarack Obamas job performance?

51%Approve ..........................................................

43%Disapprove......................................................

7%Not sure ..........................................................

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Mitt Romney?

40%Favorable........................................................

54%Unfavorable ....................................................

7%Not sure ..........................................................

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Ellizabeth Warren?

50%Favorable........................................................

43%Unfavorable ....................................................

7%Not sure ..........................................................

Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator ScottBrowns job performance?

52%Approve ..........................................................

36%Disapprove......................................................

12%Not sure ..........................................................

Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator JohnKerrys job performance?

50%Approve ..........................................................

33%Disapprove......................................................

17%Not sure ..........................................................

Q8 Generally speaking, if there was an election forSenate today, would you vote for DemocratJohn Kerry or his Republican opponent?

54%John Kerry......................................................

30%Republican opponent......................................

15%Not sure ..........................................................

Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhatconservative, or very conservative?

13%Very liberal......................................................

23%Somewhat liberal............................................

35%Moderate.........................................................

23%Somewhat conservative..................................

6%Very conservative ...........................................

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

57%Woman ...........................................................

43%Man.................................................................

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,press 2. If you are an independent or identifywith another party, press 3.

39%Democrat........................................................

16%Republican......................................................

45%Independent/Other..........................................

Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.

82%White ..............................................................

18%Other...............................................................


3/25







Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to

45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.

15%18 to 29...........................................................

24%30 to 45...........................................................

41%46 to 65...........................................................

20%Older than 65..................................................


4/25

November 1-2, 2012survey of 1,089 likely voters






Crosstabs

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative

Obama/Romney

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Undecided

57% 89% 88% 54% 25% 10%

42% 11% 11% 43% 73% 88%

2% - 1% 3% 1% 2%

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative

Warren/Brown

Elizabeth Warre n

Scott Brow n

Undecided

52% 84% 84% 47% 22% 9%

46% 16% 15% 49% 78% 90%

2% - 1% 4% 1% 1%

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative

Obama Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

51% 79% 78% 48% 24% 10%

43% 18% 16% 43% 71% 87%

7% 3% 6% 10% 6% 3%

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative

Romney Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

40% 11% 11% 40% 72% 83%

54% 86% 84% 50% 23% 11%

7% 3% 5% 10% 5% 6%


5/25







Crosstabs

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative

Warren Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

50% 84% 80% 44% 21% 9%

43% 15% 15% 47% 71% 82%

7% 0% 5% 9% 8% 8%

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative

Brown Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

52% 22% 32% 55% 77% 82%

36% 69% 57% 29% 13% 9%

12% 8% 11% 16% 9% 8%

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative

Kerry Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

50% 74% 76% 46% 28% 4%

33% 15% 11% 34% 51% 80%

17% 11% 13% 20% 22% 16%

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative

Kerry or GOPOpponent?

John Kerry

Republican

opponent

Not sure

54% 84% 85% 51% 24% 9%

30% 12% 4% 30% 55% 78%

15% 4% 11% 19% 21% 13%


6/25







Crosstabs

Base

Gender

Wom an Man

Obama/Romney

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Undecided

57% 59% 53%

42% 39% 45%

2% 1% 2%

Base

Gender

Wom an Man

Warren/Brown

Elizabeth Warre n

Scott Brow n

Undecided

52% 55% 48%

46% 44% 49%

2% 1% 3%

Base

Gender

Wom an Man

Obama Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

51% 53% 47%

43% 39% 47%

7% 7% 6%

Base

Gender

Wom an Man

Romney Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sur e

40% 38% 43%

54% 55% 51%

7% 7% 6%


7/25







Crosstabs

Base

Gender

Wom an Man

Warren Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

50% 52% 47%

43% 40% 48%

7% 8% 6%

Base

Gender

Wom an Man

Brow n Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sur e

52% 51% 54%

36% 35% 36%

12% 13% 10%

Base

Gender

Wom an Man

Kerry Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

50% 49% 50%

33% 30% 36%

17% 21% 13%

Base

Gender

Wom an Man

Kerry or GOP

Opponent?

John Kerry

Republican

opponent

Not sur e

54% 56% 52%

30% 28% 34%

15% 16% 15%


8/25







Crosstabs

Base

Party

Democrat Republican Independent/Other

Obama/Romney

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Undecided

57% 89% 11% 45%

42% 11% 89% 52%

2% 0% - 3%

Base

Party


Warren/Brown

Elizabeth Warre n

Scott Brow n

Undecided

52% 84% 12% 38%

46% 15% 88% 59%

2% 1% - 3%

Base

Party


Obama ApprovalApprove

Disapprove

Not sure

51% 82% 11% 38%

43% 13% 86% 53%

7% 5% 3% 9%

Base

Party


Romney FavorabilityFavorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

40% 13% 85% 46%

54% 82% 13% 44%

7% 5% 3% 9%


9/25







Crosstabs

Base

Party


Warren Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

50% 79% 13% 38%

43% 14% 80% 55%

7% 7% 7% 6%

Base

Party


Brown Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

52% 27% 87% 62%

36% 59% 8% 25%

12% 14% 4% 13%

Base

Party


Kerry ApprovalApprove

Disapprove

Not sure

50% 71% 17% 43%

33% 13% 65% 39%

17% 16% 17% 19%

Base

Party


Kerry or GOPOpponent?

John Kerry

Republican

opponent

Not sure

54% 85% 13% 42%

30% 6% 7 3% 36%

15% 9% 1 4% 21%


10/25







Crosstabs

Base

Race

White Other

Obama/Romney

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Undecided

57% 54% 71%

42% 45% 27%

2% 1% 2%

Base

Race

White Other

Warren/Brown

Elizabeth Warre n

Scott Brow n

Undecided

52% 49% 66%

46% 50% 31%

2% 2% 2%

Base

Race

White Other

Obama Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

51% 47% 65%

43% 46% 28%

7% 7% 7%

Base

Race

White Other

Romney Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sur e

40% 44% 22%

54% 51% 67%

7% 6% 11%


11/25







Crosstabs

Base

Race

White Other

Warren Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

50% 47% 64%

43% 47% 26%

7% 6% 10%

Base

Race

White Other

Brow n Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sur e

52% 55% 42%

36% 35% 41%

12% 11% 18%

Base

Race

White Other

Kerry Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

50% 50% 47%

33% 33% 31%

17% 16% 22%

Base

Race

White Other

Kerry or GOP

Opponent?

John Kerry

Republican

opponent

Not sur e

54% 53% 61%

30% 33% 19%

15% 14% 20%


12/25







Crosstabs

Base

Age

18 to

29

30 to

45

46 to

65

Older

than 65

Obama/Romney

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Undecided

57% 61% 50% 58% 58%

42% 37% 48% 41% 40%

2% 2% 2% 1% 2%

Base

Age

18 to

29

30 to

45

46 to

65

Older

than 65

Warren/Brown

Elizabeth Warre n

Scott Brow n

Undecided

52% 48% 47% 54% 56%

46% 50% 50% 45% 42%

2% 2% 3% 1% 1%

Base

Age

18 to

29

30 to

45

46 to

65

Older

than 65

Obama Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

51% 48% 45% 54% 52%

43% 41% 49% 41% 40%

7% 11% 6% 5% 8%

Base

Age

18 to

29

30 to

45

46 to

65

Older

than 65

Romney Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

40% 34% 43% 41% 38%

54% 61% 46% 55% 54%

7% 5% 10% 4% 8%


13/25


14/25







Connecticut Survey Results

Q1 The candidates for President are DemocratBarack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. Ifthe election was today, who would you votefor?

55%Barack Obama................................................

42%Mitt Romney....................................................

3%Undecided.......................................................

Q2 The candidates for Senate are Democrat ChrisMurphy and Republican Linda McMahon. If theelection was today, who would you vote for?

52%Chris Murphy..................................................

43%Linda McMahon ..............................................

4%Undecided.......................................................

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of PresidentBarack Obamas job performance?

51%Approve ..........................................................

42%Disapprove......................................................

7%Not sure ..........................................................

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Mitt Romney?

41%Favorable........................................................

52%Unfavorable ....................................................

8%Not sure ..........................................................

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Chris Murphy?

40%Favorable........................................................

42%Unfavorable ....................................................

18%Not sure ..........................................................

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Linda McMahon?

37%Favorable........................................................

52%Unfavorable ....................................................

11%Not sure ..........................................................

Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of GovernorDan Malloy's job performance?

46%Approve ..................

38%Disapprove..............

17%Not sure ..................

Q8 Generally speaking, if there was an election forGovernor today, would you vote for DemocratDan Malloy or his Republican opponent?

48%Dan Malloy..............

37%Republicanopponent.................

15%Not sure ..................

Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhatconservative, or very conservative?

10%Very liberal......................................................

19%Somewhat liberal............................................

36%Moderate.........................................................

24%Somewhat conservative..................................

10%Very conservative ...........................................

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

53%Woman ...........................................................

47%Man.................................................................

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,press 2. If you are an independent or identifywith another party, press 3.

41%Democrat........................................................

26%Republican......................................................

34%Independent/Other..........................................

Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.

82%White ..............................................................

18%Other...............................................................


15/25







Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to

45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.

12%18 to 29...........................................................

26%30 to 45...........................................................

42%46 to 65...........................................................

20%Older than 65..................................................


16/25







Crosstabs

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative

Obama/Romney

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Undecided

55% 89% 88% 62% 20% 16%

42% 7% 10% 34% 76% 83%

3% 3% 1% 4% 4% 2%

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative

Murphy/McMahon

Chris Murphy

Linda McMahon

Undecided

52% 85% 86% 57% 22% 11%

43% 10% 14% 38% 74% 80%

4% 5% 0% 5% 4% 9%

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative

Obama Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

51% 86% 82% 57% 18% 11%

42% 5% 13% 35% 73% 84%

7% 9% 5% 8% 9% 4%

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative

Romney Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

41% 6% 12% 32% 74% 82%

52% 87% 85% 56% 19% 14%

8% 7% 4% 11% 7% 4%


17/25







Crosstabs

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative

Murphy Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

40% 64% 68% 44% 15% 7%

42% 8% 14% 38% 69% 83%

18% 28% 18% 18% 16% 10%

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative

McMahon

Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

37% 7% 15% 29% 64% 71%

52% 78% 79% 58% 25% 18%

11% 15% 5% 13% 12% 12%

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative

Malloy Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

46% 68% 64% 49% 29% 13%

38% 15% 20% 33% 53% 76%

17% 17% 16% 18% 18% 11%

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative

Malloy or GOPOpponent?

Dan Malloy

Republican

opponent

Not sure

48% 89% 71% 50% 22% 16%

37% 5% 15% 30% 61% 76%

15% 6% 13% 20% 17% 7%


18/25







Crosstabs

Base

Gender

Wom an Man

Obama/Romney

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Undecided

55% 59% 51%

42% 37% 47%

3% 4% 2%

Base

Gender

Wom an Man

Murphy/McMahon

Chris Murphy

Linda McMahon

Undecided

52% 55% 48%

43% 39% 48%

4% 5% 3%

Base

Gender

Wom an Man

Obama Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

51% 54% 47%

42% 38% 46%

7% 8% 7%

Base

Gender

Wom an Man

Romney Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sur e

41% 37% 45%

52% 55% 48%

8% 8% 7%


19/25







Crosstabs

Base

Gender

Wom an Man

Murphy Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

40% 42% 38%

42% 39% 46%

18% 19% 16%

Base

Gender

Wom an Man

McMahon

Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sur e

37% 35% 38%

52% 53% 51%

11% 12% 10%

Base

Gender

Wom an Man

Malloy Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

46% 49% 42%

38% 33% 43%

17% 18% 15%

Base

Gender

Wom an Man

Malloy or GOP

Opponent?

Dan Malloy

Republican

opponent

Not sur e

48% 51% 45%

37% 32% 42%

15% 17% 13%


20/25







Crosstabs

Base

Party


Obama/Romney

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Undecided

55% 88% 16% 45%

42% 11% 82% 47%

3% 1% 2% 7%

Base

Party


Murphy/McMahon

Chris Murphy

Linda McMahon

Undecided

52% 84% 19% 39%

43% 14% 77% 53%

4% 2% 4% 8%

Base

Party


Obama ApprovalApprove

Disapprove

Not sure

51% 83% 15% 39%

42% 13% 80% 48%

7% 4% 5% 13%

Base

Party


Romney FavorabilityFavorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

41% 12% 80% 45%

52% 83% 14% 43%

8% 6% 6% 12%


21/25







Crosstabs

Base

Party


Murphy Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

40% 65% 16% 28%

42% 16% 73% 50%

18% 19% 11% 22%

Base

Party


McMahon

Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

37% 13% 65% 44%

52% 78% 24% 42%

11% 9% 1 0% 15%

Base

Party


Malloy ApprovalApprove

Disapprove

Not sure

46% 62% 26% 40%

38% 22% 59% 41%

17% 16% 15% 19%

Base

Party


Malloy or GOPOpponent?

Dan Malloy

Republican

opponent

Not sure

48% 77% 17% 38%

37% 12% 69% 41%

15% 11% 14% 21%


22/25







Crosstabs

Base

Race

White Other

Obama/Romney

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Undecided

55% 53% 67%

42% 45% 27%

3% 2% 7%

Base

Race

White Other

Murphy/McMahon

Chris Murphy

Linda McMahon

Undecided

52% 52% 55%

43% 45% 35%

4% 3% 10%

Base

Race

White Other

Obama Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

51% 48% 62%

42% 44% 32%

7% 8% 6%

Base

Race

White Other

Romney Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sur e

41% 44% 26%

52% 49% 63%

8% 7% 10%


23/25







Crosstabs

Base

Race

White Other

Murphy Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

40% 38% 46%

42% 44% 36%

18% 18% 18%

Base

Race

White Other

McMahon

Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sur e

37% 38% 28%

52% 52% 54%

11% 10% 18%

Base

Race

White Other

Malloy Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

46% 44% 51%

38% 40% 29%

17% 16% 20%

Base

Race

White Other

Malloy or GOP

Opponent?

Dan Malloy

Republican

opponent

Not sur e

48% 48% 50%

37% 39% 27%

15% 14% 23%


24/25







Crosstabs

Base

Age

18 to

29

30 to

45

46 to

65

Older

than 65

Obama/Romney

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Undecided

55% 53% 55% 56% 54%

42% 42% 41% 41% 44%

3% 5% 4% 2% 2%

Base

Age

18 to

29

30 to

45

46 to

65

Older

than 65

Murphy/McMahon

Chris Murphy

Linda McMahon

Undecided

52% 47% 50% 53% 56%

43% 42% 46% 44% 41%

4% 12% 4% 3% 3%

Base

Age

18 to

29

30 to

45

46 to

65

Older

than 65

Obama Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

51% 44% 51% 52% 50%

42% 44% 41% 42% 44%

7% 12% 8% 6% 6%

Base

Age

18 to

29

30 to

45

46 to

65

Older

than 65

Romney Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

41% 46% 38% 40% 43%

52% 51% 53% 52% 50%

8% 2% 10% 8% 7%


25/25

November 1-2, 2012f 1 220 lik l t

November 1-2, 2012f 1 220 lik l t

3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh NC 27604

3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh NC 27604

Crosstabs

Base

Age

18 to

29

30 to

45

46 to

65

Older

than 65

Murphy Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

40% 35% 38% 40% 45%

42% 43% 43% 43% 40%

18% 23% 19% 17% 15%

Base

Age

18 to

29

30 to

45

46 to

65

Older

than 65

McMahon

Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

37% 43% 36% 36% 37%

52% 45% 52% 53% 54%

11% 13% 13% 11% 9%

Base

Age

18 to

29

30 to

45

46 to

65

Older

than 65

Malloy Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

46% 42% 42% 47% 49%

38% 32% 43% 39% 33%

17% 26% 16% 14% 18%

Base

Age

18 to

29

30 to

45

46 to

65

Older

than 65

Malloy or GOP

Opponent?

Dan Malloy

Republican

opponent

Not sure

48% 53% 49% 46% 50%

37% 34% 37% 38% 35%

15% 13% 14% 17% 15%

Ppp Release Mact 1102

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